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Guest Post: System Reset 2014-2015

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Resets occur when the price of everything that has been repressed, manipulated or obscured is repriced.

The global financial system will reset in 2014-2015, regardless of official pronouncements and financial media propaganda hyping the "recovery." Despite the wide spectrum of forecasts (from rosy to stormy), nobody knows precisely what will transpire in 2014-2015, so we must remain circumspect about any and all predictions-- especially our own.

Even as we are mindful of the risks of a forecast being wrong (and the righteous humility that befits any analysis), it seems increasingly self-evident that financial systems around the world are reaching extremes that generally presage violent resets to new equilibria--typically at much lower levels of complexity and energy consumption.

John Michael Greer has described the process of descending stair-step resets (my description, not his) as catabolic collapse. The system resets at a lower level and maintains the new equilibrium for some time before the next crisis/system failure triggers another reset.

There is much systems-analysis intelligence in Greer's concept: systems without interactive feedbacks may collapse suddenly in a heap, but more complex systems tend to stair-step down in a series of resets to lower levels of consumption and complexity--for example, the Roman Empire, which reset many times before reaching the near-collapse level of phantom legions, full-strength on official documents, defending phantom borders.

In the present, we can expect the overly costly, complex, inefficient, fraud-riddled U.S. sickcare (i.e. "healthcare") system to reset as providers (i.e. doctors and physicians' groups) opt out of ObamaCare, Medicare and Medicaid; like the phantom armies defending phantom borders of the crumbling Empire, the vast, centralized empire of sickcare will remain officially at full strength, but few will be able to find caregivers willing to provide care within the systems.

Just as much of the collateral supporting the stock, bond and housing bubbles is phantom, many other centralized systems will reset to phantom status. As local and state governments' revenues are increasingly diverted to fund public union employees' sickcare and pension benefits, the services provided by government will decline as the number of retirees swells and the number of government employees actually filling potholes, etc. drops.

Local government will offer services that are increasingly phantom, as stagnating tax revenues fund benefits for retirees rather than current services. On paper, cities will remain responsible for filling potholes, but in the real world, the potholes will go unfilled. In response, cities will ask taxpayers to approve bonds that cost triple the price of pay-as-you-go pothole filling, as a way to dodge the inevitable conflict between government retirees benefits and taxpayers burdened with decaying streets, schools, etc. and ever-higher taxes.

As for phantom collateral--the real value of the collateral will be undiscovered until people start selling assets in earnest. As long as everyone is buying, the phantom nature of the collateral is masked; it's only when everyone tries to get their money out of asset bubbles is the actual value of the underlying collateral discovered.

When assets go bidless, i.e. there are no buyers at any price, the phantom nature of the supposedly solid collateral is revealed. Price discovery is one way of describing reset; transparent pricing of risk is another way of saying the same thing.

When risk has been mispriced via state guarantees, fraud, willful obfuscation, complexity fortresses, etc., then the repricing of risk also resets the system.

Resets occur when the price of everything that has been repressed, manipulated or obscured is repriced. The greater the manipulation and financial repression, the more violent the reset. What been manipulated, obscured or repressed? Virtually everything: risk, credit, assets, labor, currency, you name it. Everything that has been manipulated by central banks and central states will be repriced.

Trust is difficult to price. Every reset erodes trust in the capacity of the centralized status quo to manipulate/repress price to its liking. Once trust in the system is lost, it cannot be purchased at any cost.

 

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Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:24 | 4101440 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

Guest post bitchez!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:37 | 4101483 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Love the Big Red Button. Plunk your magic twangger Froggy! Planggg !

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:39 | 4101497 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

I think it'll be a good idea for me to make "I survived a global Ponzi reset and all I got was this stinkin shirt!?" shirts later this year. Maybe I'll make an iron-on print and everyone can make one of their own. :)

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:48 | 4101539 Jack Napier
Jack Napier's picture

While this post makes a lot of sense today, it made a lot of sense 5 years ago too. What's to stop governments from a coordinated slow motion hyperinflation for the next 20 years?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:05 | 4101617 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Bidless? So... the Fed gets dissolved then?

Having a hard time seeing this.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:17 | 4101668 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Much the bear fan that the Bearing Guy is, I have been waiting for a reset since 1977 under Jimmy Carter (who?)...

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:33 | 4101749 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

The Tax "Reform" Act?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:55 | 4101843 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The doctor's diagnosis is that the patient is terminally ill.

And we are upset that the doctor won't give us the time of death in advance!

Maybe we should be more worried about funeral preparations, than trying to guess the time of death?  If its a poor analogy, I apologize.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:29 | 4102012 perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

Whether or not the patient is terminally ill is not a diagnosis,  it is a prognosis.

 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:01 | 4101882 yofish
yofish's picture

'73, the 1st real oil shock.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:18 | 4101672 Stackers
Stackers's picture

unfortunately I think it will be more like 2024-2025

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:24 | 4101693 GernB
GernB's picture

When the investors discover the trend in all asset prices is declining there will be nowhere for investment capital to go and no investors to borrow the Feds printed money. How much would you borrow in a deflationary decline? The weak link in the money printing ponzi scheme is someone has to have faith enough in markets to borrow money to invest. When faith is gone its all over.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:35 | 4101756 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

You can't borrow in a deflationary collapse, that's why they print... so members of the club still can.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:00 | 4101874 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

That's not really fair. We should all get free money.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:42 | 4102335 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

You took the words right out of my mouth Jack

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 15:08 | 4102426 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

What's to stop governments from a coordinated slow motion hyperinflation for the next 20 years?

Inflation may be slow at times (at least for some), but hyperinflation is always explosive.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:53 | 4101566 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

dude, instead of shirts, why not buy garage sale bicycles and make hand carts and travois systems out of them?

You'll be the fucking General Motors of the Reset Era.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:01 | 4101880 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

That's a mighty fine idea. I was also thinking about the recycled construction of 4 bicycle-wheeled pushcarts that Asian street vendors use for their businesses.

In the future, everything is either so restricted that you'll need permission to wipe your ass, or it's free-for-all competition like "second and third world" places.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:01 | 4101872 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

@Skateboarder

Unfortunately, a stinkin' t-shirt is all the vast majority of the survivors will have...just what's on their backs.  Most will have nothing else left...not a pot to piss in. 

I wish I could get through to more people around me, but the normalcy bias and cognative dissonance in most people is just too strong to penetrate. They've become almost completely inaccessible at this point.

They've all been taught that everything is a conspiracy "theory" even after nearly all of those conspiracies turn out to be conspiracy "fact". 

Now they're being taught to shut up or else they'll be called a racist if they speak out against anything.  So they retreat even further into their mental caves of denial. 

I get so F'ing angry when I see a grown man cower from a conversation about patriotism, the Constitution, or the Marxists who have taken over nearly everything in America.  It's pathetic.  They're pathetic.  Weakling cowards who are too scared to wake the fuck up and admit we've got a massively serious problem to face and then actually stand up and face it head on.  

And it's getting worse... 

 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:06 | 4101910 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

So that's why every fan at game 5 in St. Louis stood up and waved their little flag while being led singing God Bless America by a 30 year old Army supply clerk from bumfuck iowa with a medical plan that paid for her new braces. 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:16 | 4102220 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

@Save_America1st

Totally agree with your post - it's embarassing to see grown ass men be either so engrossed in the perpetuation of the fearmongering (the dealing end) or so timid (the receiving) as to be incapable of objective analysis until the bitter reality is exposed behind the veil of legalized legitimacy of immorality. That means the designers did a bang-up job in manufacturing thought in the minds of men. It also means we as a species have to acknowledge the existence of and be very careful about being subject to thought-programming.

@robertocarlos

Comment of the week. You reminded me of this legendary moment from the Simpsons:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pIHjTDSo1Sw

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:06 | 4101618 Professor Fate
Professor Fate's picture

Gremlins everywhere.  Hiya kids..hiya hiya!  We could use an Andy Devine again.

Fate the Magnificent
"Push the button, Max"

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:24 | 4101443 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Great post, simple and direct.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:52 | 4101556 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

I think the time horizon of 2015ish is correct for a couple simple reasons and the past may predict the future, as it always does!

The US government, as every ZHer knows, has become a giant beast, its power at this point to effect things is unmatched and unchallenged! The only time that power and its ramifications are at all questioned, is during times of national elections and dialogue! Its NOT a coincidence that the last collapse came in 2008 at the height of the last Presidential election!

All the inside deals, fifedoms, corruption, and inefficiency gets flushed to the forefront and can't be covered up with another press release! And as we know, the ONLY thing that shakes a socialist controlled central bank system, is uncertainity, and what is more uncertain, then who will run the scheme?????

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:06 | 4101620 worbsid
worbsid's picture

There is no uncertainty if you buy both sides.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:46 | 4101795 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

Does that mean gold and...

silver?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:06 | 4101911 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

You Betchya it does!!!

Keep stackin' the phyzz folks!  Silver under 30/oz is a freakin' steal and they're just holding it here at this level for us to scoop up as much as we can before the SHTF. 

 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:34 | 4101453 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Stairsteps, got it.....   Anything else?

 

Trust?  Financial numbers without Accounting standards are meaningless.  Nothing to trust

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:38 | 4101491 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Seriously.  They've pulled the same scam 3 times in the past 15 years.  Yes, people really are that stupid.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:28 | 4101457 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

One thing I know for sure, the boyz will make certain the stock markets remain at current or higher levels til bonus time.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:29 | 4101462 angryBuddhist
angryBuddhist's picture

"Once trust in the system is lost, it cannot be purchased at any cost."

Unfortunately, the govt strategy is to replace trust with fear and history shows that fear is easy to implement, even in the face of lost trust. Ask any abused house wife.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:38 | 4101484 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Marriage is a keystone to the modern economic system.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:24 | 4102265 mkkby
mkkby's picture

So CHS is predicting disaster in 1-2 years, like the religious nuts have been doing forever.  It's like the mirage that always moves out of reach, no matter how far you chase it.

Europe is far closer to "going Greece" than the US.  There will be no reset until the Euro area, Japan and the UK go first... decades away most likely.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:47 | 4101526 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

And to replace collateral with printed paper currency.  Which is why paper gold is a bet the system will continue on while physical gold works either way.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:49 | 4101811 zapdude
zapdude's picture

...until the oppressed stand up and shove a double-barrel shotgun into the mouth of the bully, and pull both triggers.  That day will come, but only after it becomes clear the beatings will never let up, and the survivors realize they have nothing to lose.

For honor and for riches

I've labored long and hard for the bread

but on my corns too long you tread

you fine haired sons of B!TCHEZ!

-- Black Bart (reknowned for robbing Wells Fargo stagecoaches)

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:18 | 4101962 seek
seek's picture

Actually, this is the reason the collapse will come.

Even the sheep are questioning the 24/7 "fear" messages, and they know they're being watched even though they're non-threatening sheep. The NSA over-reach is going to be looked back at as one of the biggest political blunders of population management in history, not unlike the Stasi is viewed today. While it's hugely under-reported, the NSA fiasco and the Fed's ZIRP policy failure have woken up more people in the past year than anything else I've seen in my lifetime. As those people decide to keep and extra $100 at home, remain skeptical of lies from politicians, etc, the avalanche starts -- and the big tipping point of Obamacare taxes hasn't even hit yet.

The old adage of gripping too tightly and having the sand fall through your fingers applies here.

I do think his call is a little early. I've been saying 2015-2018 for some time now, so there's some overlap, but 2015 still seems a bit early to me. I don't have any doubt you'll see something obviously broken by then, though.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:31 | 4101474 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Just walk it back to 1996.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:35 | 4101480 J Pancreas
J Pancreas's picture

Go long cash-only medical procedures in Central and South America.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:43 | 4101510 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

You will be papering your livingroom walls in usd's when we have a reset.....the "reset" is when you trash the old fiat and set the stage for the new one. 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:33 | 4101751 homonohumanus
homonohumanus's picture

At least they have a cultural value unlike those dreaful and impersonal Euro we got to use here :lol:

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:21 | 4101973 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

dreadful and impersonal? well, yes. though that's a feature, not a bug

and it's important, in it's own way. it does not generate an emotional attachment. just think how hard it is for many when a cultural icon is under attack or gets even destroyed. example: national flags burning (and laws against it)

state sponsored fiat currency - particularly when multi-national in character - is a facility. it has a function, and it has just to fulfil that function, not more, not less

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:22 | 4102254 akak
akak's picture

 

state sponsored fiat currency

God, there is just SO much wrong with that one little phrase!

Jsut thinking it sends the taste of bile into my mouth.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:37 | 4101482 stant
stant's picture

martin armstrong says oct 2015, i dont think we will be that lucky

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:15 | 4101661 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Armstrong can't narrow it down to the day? What a pussy.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:24 | 4101989 CH1
CH1's picture

LOL... though he probably can.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:58 | 4101863 zapdude
zapdude's picture

Just food for thought, but something to consider that may be outside your paradigm: 

Perhaps what is coming in 2015+ is even bigger than a 'normal' reset?  Some Messianic Jews believe its the Big One.  Consider that on 3/20/15 there is a full solar eclipse which coincides with the Jewish New Year, which happens to be 6,000 on their calendar.

"In 2014 - 2015 a rare sequence of Red Blood Moon lunar eclipses will occur on the Jewish Holidays of Passover and the Feast of Tabernacles ( Sukkot ). In addition to the Tetrad occurrence, 2 solar eclipses will complement the 4 lunar eclipses on the Jewish New Year and the Feast of Trumpets. A comet and meteor shower will pass by earth on the Jewish holiday of Tu BiSh'vat a few months before the Jewish Eclipse sequence begins."

Downvote or Hebrew-bash, but it only seems prudent to me to consider this with more than a flippant dismissal.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:58 | 4102144 KnightTakesKing
KnightTakesKing's picture

+1 for unwrapping the onion one more layer.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:13 | 4102208 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Interesting. I fear not celestial or terrestrial cycles. Nor "prophecies" for that matter.

Rather, I fear the desperation of fanatical Elites, who try to bring about self-fulfilling prophecies.

Fanatics and extremists have always been dangerous. But those with means (power, wealth and influence) are the most dangerous ones.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 16:45 | 4102755 kito
kito's picture

zapdude, read the Harbinger, it will blow your mind

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 21:35 | 4103468 zapdude
zapdude's picture

Thanks for the advice, I will.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:38 | 4101485 homonohumanus
homonohumanus's picture

This talk about "reset" always brings me back memory of papers I read about the CFR plans to have a common currency shared between NA and EU (/NATO)  by "horizon 2015".

The negociation between NA and EU are going well (I think something has been signed already between Canada and EU), it would not take muc hto get there...

Let crumble a big bank in EU or US and there we go, scared sheeples, having lost lots of saving would accept anything and actually be grateful / hold dear to the neewly established status quo...

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:31 | 4102021 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

the common currency between NA and EU has always been a recurring dream (or imho nightmare) of some people in the Council of Foreign Relations

thankfully that has been buried by all the criticism of the "no shared debt" policy in the eurozone. it was a megabanker's dream anyway, and they are now mostly still busy criticizing the EUR nations for their "stubborness"

yet don't mistake the Canada/EU treaty with the damn Transatlantic that is being discussed now. different beast altogether. there is still hope that the whole deal flounders, much to the chagrin of Cameron and Obama

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:38 | 4101486 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

Resets are also a time when "one small coin" can buy a whole city block if conditions are right. Elites know that trick very well...........they like to keep that a secret. 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:32 | 4101741 PacOps
PacOps's picture

The way to make money is to buy when blood is running in the streets.

John D. Rockefeller

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:17 | 4102226 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

JDR was merely quoting his ideological masters: The Rothschilds.
Famous Rothschild quote that is.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:39 | 4101487 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

Indeed,... even your enemies in which you keep closer will retreat in favor of an 'Old Chestnut's `Nauseating Regurgitation' !?!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:47 | 4101488 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When the reset happpens there will be no stair stepping down. This market is a bidless market, and the mostly complete obliteration of the short sellers has removed any lower bid that they normally offer. The market collapse will be fast and it will be furious as it vaporizes, in high probabilty while we sleep. There will be no money to be made on the downside except for a select few who know well in advance of when the rug will be pulled. If you're playing around in these"markets" you better damn well be using money that you are prepaired to lose.

 

You have been warned!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:49 | 4101542 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I tend to agree.  I was looking at my trading account last night after a very long hiatus.  The amount these stock are over-priced is staggering and there is nothing propping anything up except Fed QE and algorithmic "trading" of the slosh. That's the deal.  We went full retard.  Playing around in these markets does not compute, either--it won't make any difference what your account balance says you have when you can't get the money out. 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:56 | 4101581 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Such as, other people's money. 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:33 | 4101745 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

That's a very interesting comment. Other peoples money will vaporize. And there's a lot of it.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:18 | 4101673 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

The market feels so good. Can I leave in just the tip as long as I pull out before it explodes?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:38 | 4101490 daemon
daemon's picture

"... that has been repressed, manipulated or obscured is repriced."

Unless the reset in question is a nuclear holocaust .

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:50 | 4101550 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I question how many of the missiles are out there and really ready to get off the ground after so many years, especially in Russia.  I'm sure the sub-delivered and smaller aircraft delivered ones still work.  We must never find out.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:45 | 4101793 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

I would guess that 0% of this years's production of the newly designed TEL mounted ICBMs in Russia would suffer that problem, or any of the those manufactured since the US basically gave up designing (much less manufacturing) new nukes a while back...

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:54 | 4101573 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

daemon                       Very good point and really makes you wonder about hundreds of thousands of FEMA coffins that hold three bodies each.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:25 | 4101698 DanDaley
DanDaley's picture

Therefore, send not to know,

for whom the bell tolls,

It tolls for thee.

 

 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:32 | 4101737 Overfed
Overfed's picture

Those aren't coffins, they're vault liners. I worked groundskeeping in a cemetery when I was a teenage kid.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:03 | 4102163 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

The common term for the one's stockpiled by the CDC and FEMA is FEMA coffin but technically you are right only these are stackable due to flat lids instead of rounded. Manufactured by our old friends- always at the bottom of any nasty deeds- Haliburton (subsidiary). 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:27 | 4102274 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

So, only one or two are assigned to typical modern family, it seems. Probably includes the family dog too, in case of an epidemic.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:39 | 4101496 walküre
walküre's picture

I take gold for $50,000 US Dollar!

 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:49 | 4101543 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

I like you... A LOT!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:40 | 4101498 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

This is also in line with my "Presidental Term Bubble Theory".  Ever since we got off the gold standard in 1971, each time a presidential cycle is up it seems some bubble pops and elites use the ensuing panic to install laws and politicians to "fix the problem"....and of course, they end up making it worse (for us, not them).

This is why I think Chris Christie, who I believe will be GOP 2016 candidate, will have a fighting chance versus Hillary Clinton.  The economy is going to tank starting around Q3 2014 (along with global bond pressures) which will result in economic turmoil.  This usually leads to political change. 

Look what happened in 2008: the market went into the shitter, and America elected a BLACK MAN as POTUS.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:48 | 4101540 kralizec
kralizec's picture

That is about the most depressing thing I've read all morning...

I won't have a damn thing to do with that noise!!!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:36 | 4101762 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

"Black man". Thanks for the chuckle.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:45 | 4102350 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Just curious: how "diluted" with Caucasian blood does Negro blood have to be, to no longer be called "Black"? 1/2, 1/4, 1/8, 1/32, 1/64? Seriously.

I think there's a lot of BS and PC games being played, to suit the "Agenda de Moment". If there is some Gov, employment or college admission benefit to be gained over a "White" person, I don't doubt that people will call themselves "Black", even if they are only 1/64th Black.

Technically a 1/2 Black, 1/2 White person is not "Black", but Mulatto. Someone should tell Obama to stop referring to himself as "Black", and admit that he is a MIX: Mulatto.

But notice how he also refers to his white ancestors (mother, grandparents) when it suits him, while still calling himself "Black". Interesting.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 15:23 | 4102485 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

Good grief, I can't imagine that fat fuck as prez of the USA

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:46 | 4101527 6th of May
6th of May's picture

Eric Janszen said the markets will tank in the 1st Quarter of 2014..

I'm pretty sure this guy is correct... He did really good work on the last crisis, not only predictet but figured out the problems behind it. 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:17 | 4101667 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Not to mention that he designed some nice swimsuits.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:20 | 4101683 walküre
walküre's picture

I would agree. The economy is in a deep rut. Suggesting this can go on until Q3 2014 is wishful thinking. 85 billion a month isn't cutting it anymore. ECB is dancing around the issues and is out of bullets. Says they won't lower the benchmark rate. Like that would make a difference BoC said last week they're not seeing any rate moves until at least 2016 and no growth. Tylers never picked that up but it came across the wires. BoC is small fry but they are a G8 Central Bank and imo they spilled the beans.

Yup, Q1 2014 is unleashing a barrage of bad news. We're currently going from bad to worse. The CAT is all but dead in the water. Mass layoffs will be have to be announced during Q1. There's no fix unless debt gets written off and all players can come back to the table and participate in the economy. Not this fake bullshit that may look good on balance sheets but doesn't create a single job or puts a building up.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 15:25 | 4102491 quasimodo
quasimodo's picture

"It's begining to look at lot like Christmas...............everyhere you" 

What's that?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:47 | 4101536 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

2014-2015... you know what... WE'LL SEE!!!

Can kicking is a art and they're good at it. We have to agree with that.

so WE'LL SEE when the reset happens. It will happen. I'm very sure. But when.... that's like predicting the end of the world. And we all know the mistake the Maya's made with their predictions...

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:49 | 4101547 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Baktun reset, bitchez!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:52 | 4101557 samsara
samsara's picture

2015.75

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 11:55 | 4101577 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

some shit must have gotten lost in the translation to base 10?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:11 | 4101623 daemon
daemon's picture

"And we all know the mistake the Maya's made with their predictions..."

I don't know if it's true or not, but apparently the Mayas didn't believe the end of their

calendar (I don't know in fact whether it's the end of the calendar or simply the end of an era) implied the end of the world . I remember watching a video on youtube, where there is a shaman who seemingly (I don't understand spanish) says there is nothing to fear about december 2012 .

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:10 | 4102197 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

The Mayan calendar was literally depicted in a circle.  A circle!

So that should tell you everything you need to know about the Mayans supposed belief in 'the end of the world', at the end of their calendar.  Its a circle, it just starts from the beginning!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:54 | 4102379 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I predict that today will end at Midnight!
Am willing to bet Money/Gold or Currency on it. Will even give 20:1 odds.
RSVP.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:08 | 4101628 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

So glad I live now and have procreated more slaves for the masters.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:11 | 4101638 Carl Popper
Carl Popper's picture

Liquidity is trust. Trust is liquidity.

The difference between us and Somalia is only trust. Trust in contracts. Trust in paper.

Artificial untrustworthy liquidity pumps will not function as proper lubricant without trust and faith.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:25 | 4101699 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

That and thousands of room temp. IQ folks armed with AK74's and RPG's.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:02 | 4101889 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

As opposed to thousands of room temp. IQ folks armed with razor phones.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:11 | 4101641 Michigander
Michigander's picture

You can say what, and you can say when, but you can't say what AND when. Things can continue for longer than you ever thought imaginable, and end quicker than you ever thought possible. So until what and when happens, keep stacking.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:37 | 4101768 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

True dat Michigander but phizz will soar and at that time you MUST move into other hard assets before the new currency is put into play or you will miss the window. In 1993-94 Yugoslavia - 1 German DM= 30 million dinar. Be the guy with the DM.  Buy a small village and become overlord...............that's how top .01% do it.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 15:12 | 4102442 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I was one of those fools with the DM in my pocket, who spent them on wine, women and song, instead of buying up gobs of Adriatic property (when blood was on the streets).

To this day I observe those events once a year, by getting drunk and then inducing projectile vomiting -- to remember my own stupidity: the stupidity and hubris of my youth.

I now stack. Outside the USSA. But the real trick for most former-Middle-class people isn't whether to "stack", but in staying solvent enough to pay the bills, and to avoid having to dip into the Stack. That's where the MF'ing Elite/Oligarchs have us many of us by the balls.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:30 | 4102286 akak
akak's picture

OT, but since there is no such place as "Michigand", there is no such thing as a "Michigander".

Why do so many of you from Michigan make that mistake? 
You are MICHIGANIANS, not Michiganders.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:22 | 4101689 edwardo1
edwardo1's picture

When assets go bidless CHS says.

Against what? That is what you leave out.
What will not be bid for are items in the physical plane.
They will not be bid for by heretofore honored paper claims. But there is one asset of a physical nature that will weather the bonfire of assets thaf will no longer perform as such when the bonfire is lit. You might have saved us some time by stating that, but it appears you either don't know this or don't want to know.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:05 | 4101909 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

?????...you kinda missed your window of opportunity to inform us as well.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:15 | 4102222 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

I was refering to the COMING 2014-15 reset bro.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:42 | 4101784 Randoom Thought
Randoom Thought's picture

IMO, Satan's bankers want to f*ck as many people as possible with whipsaw volatility until 2015 and then crash the market as part of the 2015 crisis which is part of God's judgment foretold in Jubilees.

2001, 2008, 2015, 2022, 2029, 2036 (when it's Ciao doods)

Not even half way there .... The Harbinger has been read three times by TPTB.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 15:34 | 4102529 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

We shall see. But it won't be due to any of the thousands of known and tracked celestial objects.

Maybe the Grays, Arians or Lizards (bankster Lezards) will reveal themselves to the masses?

Who will crack under the pressure first and disobey the Prime Directive? Besides Kirk. ;-)

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:49 | 4101812 SMC
SMC's picture

Trust?  ROFL!

Trust requires blind faith, stupidity, and ignorance.

Fortunately for "the system" these traits are plentiful.

Everything is fine,
Until it is not,
No one will know
The evil we wrought.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:51 | 4101824 zrussell
zrussell's picture

Congress will need to pass a law that we go from 2013 right to 2016.

There, problem solved!

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:56 | 4101849 Mojeaux18
Mojeaux18's picture

"Trust is difficult to price. Every reset erodes trust in the capacity of the centralized status quo to manipulate/repress price to its liking. Once trust in the system is lost, it cannot be purchased at any cost."

BS.

Greece has defaulted six times in history.  Market crash of 2008 hit when we were here at these levels yet things have gotten worse and we are more likely to have a full on meltdown then we were in 2008.

There is a a sucker born every minute. 

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:56 | 4101855 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

The Canadian govt should get started on a 20 foot high concrete wall at the border, with only one gate, today.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:37 | 4102048 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

One gate near Vancouver for the Chinese?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 12:57 | 4101859 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

The author gives a timetable of 2014-2015, but no reasons for it.  Why that particular time frame?  I may think he's right, but why?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:09 | 4101926 tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

because this year and last year was wrong.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:35 | 4102039 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

last year the doomers predicted the reset would be this year.

They are not wrong ... yet.

 

Who keeps moving the date for the reset back?

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:06 | 4101912 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Whoa whoa whoa.. One thing at a time, here...

I'm still waiting for System Reset 2008-2009....

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:15 | 4101946 smartstrike
smartstrike's picture

Yeah it's like the resent bottom on a Windows system?

Balmer did call 2008 a reset, now he is worth more than he ever was. Bill Gates is worth now more than $60B. In 2006-2007, he was worth maybe $30B.

But the RESET bottom won't work when you get 'blue screen of death.'

Martin Armstrong thinks we peak in 2015.75. He has unbelievable track record. He correctly called for the bear market in gold while all the fools including ZH were calling for gold 50,000. In late 2008, he said that DOW will exceed 10,000. He now thinks that DOW is going to 21,000. After that.........no reset. Say hello to Robert Prechter's '100-year long bear market.'

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:24 | 4101985 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

"When assets go bidless, i.e. there are no buyers at any price"

What about when there are no SELLERS at the current price?   Just off the top of my head, things you can't buy in quantity right now at the "real" price:

 

Gold and other precious metals

Ammunition

Generic drugs

Credit for small businesses


Tue, 10/29/2013 - 13:51 | 4102114 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

Software OxyMoronFuel

If you look at your history books again, you will see that the empire requires other people’s free land, sufficient for an aspiring middle class to exploit, to reboot the capital ponzi. There is no such land available of sufficient scale, which was the point of the Internet, from the perspective of capital.

The problem, as is always the problem for empire, is that it needs confidence in control of RE, which is why the dc computer was chosen over the ac computer, with the standard assumption of a closed system. The empire is always a dead end of increasing scale; it can only ride decreasing quality and increasing price, prerequisites for the credit ponzi, so far.

As ACA demonstrates, again, dc cannot tolerate mixed messages the way a human automaton can. It reaches its terminal velocity constant, engaging the clutch with no where to go, much faster, through the very same law of diminishing returns. ACA is purported to be about affordable healthcare for all; its reality is eliminating beneficiaries, with hidden agendas, hunting down contributors, with capital controls, and increasing the tax base, by favoring selected medical hoarders.

While capital and middle class have been busy pouring all their resources into making the disposable dc system work one more day, labor has been building out the ac transmission mechanism, which creates an empire sunk cost beyond its computational capability. DC is a sub-component of AC. Just because you wish AC away does not make it so.

The little components in that wafer that you cannot see are still components. They get hot, and they get hot in a particular manner, associated with the mentality of their users, which cannot be altered in real time. That burning tank becomes a bomb, in all kinds of ‘unexpected’ ways, upon recognition, which the empire can only avoid until the last minute, the timing of which is beyond its control.

Labor doesn’t let capital assume control to load the spring by accident, and the middle class assumes that control will lead to security relative to its position, increasing pressure on decreasing volume, to chaos. Software salesmen are like a cross between lobbyists and used car salesmen. They lead you to a bipolar extortion economy every time, temporary relief of induced anxiety for a price – the future.

First, they tell the politicians how smart they are. Then they allow the politicians to shop from among a wish list of internally inconsistent specifications, creating every possible opportunity for change orders. Then the software managers split the work up among programmers, walled off from each other with certified security, creating a relatively infinite number of change order possibilities to bleed the cow, because at this point the sunk cost is beyond contemplation of all the participants.

When the project hits the wall of recognition, it’s like any other bankruptcy. The 75% of specifications completed becomes the kernel for the next iteration, a scapegoat is offered, quite often the participating whistleblower, and the process starts all over again, along the same curve of diminishing returns, with an increasing focus on minutia. The Microsoft/Boeing model of development is currently the biggest scam ever perpetrated by empire, and nearly everyone is participating in one manner or another.

No, I am not a stupid Unabomber. The problem the empire has with me is that it needs what is in my head to reboot. I’m going to bomb all the participants, in one way or another. Their choice is whether they want to be dead cattle, or just sheared, to grow wool another day. I don’t care what they choose to do to themselves. Buffet can corner all the track he wants, so communities can frack all they want, so Chinese bureaucrats can consume all they want, so Buffet...

Like the man said, “nature takes care of its own,” nature provides. If you accept the good and evil, divide and conquer model, you will be ruled and you will toil, in vain and in pain, for empire property and income. As a community, you may wish to define prosperity another way, and build your feedback signal to discount the empire accordingly, to ignore ignorance and provide an appropriate exit from the noise.

I don’t have to do anything to blow up planes, trains and automobiles. The empire does it for me, with increasing COLLATERAL damage. From the perspective of its software, I am a ghost, collecting bits of bits to threshold. All you have to do to avoid me is value people over property and income. Turn the hourglass privately, beyond your public profile, to reboot the secondhand beyond its perception.

Let capital assume control, until you don’t. Labor has no interest in government granted rights. Control blows itself up; just get out of the way when you are ready to enter your development. I have no interest in the tree of knowledge and there is nothing Yellen, Brown or anyone else can do to persuade me otherwise. As you can see, I am spelling it out and the NSA automatons still have no idea what I am talking about.

Toyota kicked GM’s A, which is why Japan earns a higher debt/GDP credit and supplies hot money. Its problem, triggering a defense escalation, is that homogeneous miniaturization has reached the wall of diminishing returns. An empire is a cash cow, dependent entirely upon labor to accept its money. All it really has in its arsenal, that you don’t put there, is the threat of a self-destructive lockout, an artificial crisis. An empire is an emotional damsel, always in distress.

Ever notice how FB participants advertize material prosperity, derivatives, as blessings? Nothing worse than a drive-by-Christian, robot replicating machine, fueling itself. FB is just another iteration of the bipolar, keep-up-with-the-Jones, self-fulfilling, rigged lottery, fueled by the Fed, because all the participants are clueless, including the Fed. That’s what the data tells you. The Fed is the derivative, not the integral.

The majority chooses to herd in numbers on the assumption of insurance, subjecting and blinding itself to the law of diminishing returns. Capital predation, with a bait and switch, insurance promissory ponzi, is a no-brainer. The problem with paper leverage is that its foundation is arbitrary. Both collapse with the ingoing and outgoing tides.

What does a measuring device, employed by a measuring device, inside a measuring device, measure? What is timedistance bias? Follow a Seattle cop sometime; you become what you fear, with myopic observation contraction.

It is as sheep I send you out amongst the wolves. How you complete the circuit is up to you. Each event horizon has a terminal velocity, like the speed of light. Anonymity is a false assumption of democratic money. An empire cannot escape zero monetary velocity on the margin.

Seek your own truth, and the intent of others becomes irrelevant; they cancel each other out in the wash. Shepherd, and the empire blinders disintegrate, like a cheap sweater.

Just reset the D labor/rent ratio to 4 and get on with your life. The last thing Petaluma needs is the county’s one-way road to empire RE price inflation.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:06 | 4102174 percyklein
percyklein's picture

Impressive. Hope to learn more.

Tue, 10/29/2013 - 14:21 | 4102251 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Its a low signal-to-noise ratio, but whats there is good.

One thing collapse has going for it, is that it greatly reduces government red tape, leaving small farmers to sell their raw milk in peace, and little girls to run lemonade stands.  

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