Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%

Tyler Durden's picture

The most succinct post-mortem summary of the FOMC announcement comes from Citi's Stephen Englander. It is as follows:

After reading the Fed statement, CitiFX Head G10 Strategist Steven Englander says that he would put tapering odds at:

  • 20% December
  • 45% January
  • 25% march
  • 10% Beyond March

Before this meeting his estimates would have been:

  • 10% December
  • 25% January
  • 35% March
  • 30% Beyond March

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slotmouth's picture

How can you put odds on an arbitrary decision?

Al Huxley's picture

Talk your company's book, talk your own book, creative spreadsheet modeling, wishful thinking, make shit up...

King_of_simpletons's picture

Citi just shut the fuck up. This guess work and "reports" by banks is a ploy to create volatility based on some expectation of what will happen. Yellen is not going to taper QE. She is going to unleash more of it. $150 Billion a month.

knukles's picture

How fucking far out of touch with reality is this schmuck?

Dr Bernanke, don't forget to give the little ones their Kool-Aide

NoDebt's picture

Thanks for the update, Steve.  I'll take that under advisement.

SilverIsKing's picture

What odds did Steven Englander give regarding a September taper announcement back in August?

Stuart's picture

Its as if these clowns need to justify their paycheque no matter how tiresome they get...   None of them have any credibility left, at all.  

DeadFred's picture

Where is the 'never' column? Do they bundle it into the beyond march choice? Guess I'm missing something.

Fuh Querada's picture

he didn't specify the year.

HedgeAccordingly's picture

It is cool the NSA did not hack GOOG or YHOO serves . wheww 

SilverIsKing's picture




SilverIsKing's Odds of Tapering ...

  • 0% December
  • 0% January
  • 0% March
  • 0% Beyond March

SilverIsKing's Odds of an Increase in size of QE ...

  • 30% December
  • 40% January
  • 30% March
  • 0% Beyond March
TheFreeLance's picture

AKA Muppet Bait. Lube, insert, ROTATE.

buzzsaw99's picture

citi couldn't find their own ass with both hands employed in the search

ParkAveFlasher's picture

What if they employed an army of part-time Pakistani consultants?  Would it happen then?

Crash Overide's picture

The low volume high algo market hangs on every news bite, this is the game... QE keeps coming until the day it stops, and then it won't matter.

Took Red Pill's picture

Not going to happen especially with new Fed Chair Yellen.

NoDebt's picture

Oh, I completely disagree.  ALL the talk I'm hearing lately is how the market always "challenges" a new Fed Chair.  You just gotta believe this one, because it's always true according to the guy I talked to by the water cooler.  You ain't cool if you're not spouting this new line.

Frank N. Beans's picture



Gonna be Ground Hog Day all over again. 


NotApplicable's picture

But look how well this particular head-fake worked last time!

Given there is NO solution allowed, this stalling is all they've got.

Well... at least until the next distraction comes along...

Kirk2NCC1701's picture

What do the controlling/dominant shareholders (Saudis) say about this?  Bandar Bush?  Bueler?  Anyone, anyone?

"One in the Bush is worth..."

john39's picture

the saudis?  you missed it by 'that' much...

Iam Yue2's picture

Citi lowers probability of "Grexit" to 60 percent from 90 percent


fooshorter's picture

Can I have the 30 seconds of my life back it took me to ready this story?

DeadFred's picture

Sorry, there are no mulligan's on ZeroHedge. It's fight club rules.

FieldingMellish's picture

By taper I guess they mean untaper. $100B/month by March.

Al Huxley's picture

In his profile he left out 'never'.

GoldenDonuts's picture

Which is it?  Has Citi and JPM already shorted everything or are they about to short everything before telling the Fed to announce a non existant taper?

Al Huxley's picture

Or they're long everything, trying to induce some fear in the market to create squeezable short positions.  Free money -> long the market.

lunaticfringe's picture

Lunatic Fringe says chance of a taper, zero. Chance QE enlarges, 25%. 

SheepDog-One's picture



Rinse... many times as it takes! 

asteroids's picture

Citi 10 years ago traded for $500/share. Today, about $50. You get what you pay for I guess.

twh99's picture

I'll bet you good money that there will be an increase in QE within months of Yellen being confirmed.

yogibear's picture

How about 0% chance? Enough of this BS on tapering. It's not going to happen. 

The Yellen and her 12 Fed stooges will keep blowing a larger and larger bubble in assets

SheepDog-One's picture

Will Ferrell doing his Harry Caray voiceover- 'HEY...can we BET on this thing?' Make it an index? Call it the TPX maybe? Taper Index? I wanna BET on it...get some ACTION here!'

For fucks sakes.....

? Modern Mojo - YouTube

Bastiat's picture


They are just pimping the USD--that's all this taper crap was about from the beginning.  Since they CAN'T do it without cratering everything, they won't.  To try and preserve what credibility the USD has the TBTF pimps will talk.

SheepDog-One's picture

Whole thing is now like a pack of winos staggering down an alley propping each other up best they can.

DeadFred's picture

Ben puts this in the 'Forward Guidance' category. Hey, don't knock it, it may be total BS but it works.

moneybots's picture

"Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%"


So now we start this game, again.  With the economy what it is, i would guess that 65% actually works out to a round zero.

tecno242's picture

Do they really not realize...... or when will these a-holes finally figure out that they will NEVER taper.   EVER.

NEVER idiots... NEVER.

B.J. Worthy's picture

This is like betting on WWE matches with Vince McMahon.

QE49er's picture

Here comes December in the back stretch, January is coming on the inside along with March, Beyond March needs to make up some ground...1/2 furlong to go...Beyond March making a great comeback, it's Beyond March by a nose..who would have known?!!  someone had to have known something about that 80-1 Longshot...

Gringo Viejo's picture

LMAO. These guys just won't quit! Stop it! You're Killin' me!

falak pema's picture

these fukking banksters run from pillar to post. They know they will burn in hell either thru QE infinity or thru no QE.

As Ghordius said : the best worst solution is a mini retreat, 1 billion at a time. But, these FED guys are so shrouded in hubris when they are not frying in total panic.

Paranoia breeds the extremes in nightly screams. 

goldenbuddha454's picture

I wish the FED would get off the crack, cold turkey so the rest of us could buy stocks at what they're really worth; about 25% their current value


kito's picture

Hey doc, contact me offline.

max2205's picture

Moar qe not  less