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Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/30/2013 15:53 -0400

The most succinct post-mortem summary of the FOMC announcement comes from Citi's Stephen Englander. It is as follows:

After reading the Fed statement, CitiFX Head G10 Strategist Steven Englander says that he would put tapering odds at:

20% December

45% January

25% march

10% Beyond March

Before this meeting his estimates would have been:

10% December

25% January

35% March

30% Beyond March

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Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:54 | 4106049 slotmouth

How can you put odds on an arbitrary decision?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:05 | 4106125 Al Huxley

Talk your company's book, talk your own book, creative spreadsheet modeling, wishful thinking, make shit up...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:10 | 4106151 King_of_simpletons

Citi just shut the fuck up. This guess work and "reports" by banks is a ploy to create volatility based on some expectation of what will happen. Yellen is not going to taper QE. She is going to unleash more of it. $150 Billion a month.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:17 | 4106206 knukles

Taper?
How fucking far out of touch with reality is this schmuck?

_{^{Dr Bernanke, don't forget to give the little ones their Kool-Aide}}

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:20 | 4106216 NoDebt

Thanks for the update, Steve. I'll take that under advisement.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:49 | 4106589 SilverIsKing

What odds did Steven Englander give regarding a September taper announcement back in August?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:18 | 4107619 Stuart

Its as if these clowns need to justify their paycheque no matter how tiresome they get... None of them have any credibility left, at all.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:03 | 4107793 Scarlett

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:42 | 4106352 DeadFred

Where is the 'never' column? Do they bundle it into the beyond march choice? Guess I'm missing something.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:04 | 4106432 Fuh Querada

he didn't specify the year.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:54 | 4106050 HedgeAccordingly

It is cool the NSA did not hack GOOG or YHOO serves . wheww http://hedge.ly/19T7HMU

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:54 | 4106604 SilverIsKing

SilverIsKing's Odds of Tapering ...

0% December
0% January
0% March
0% Beyond March

SilverIsKing's Odds of an Increase in size of QE ...

30% December
40% January
30% March
0% Beyond March

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:57 | 4106066 TheFreeLance

AKA Muppet Bait. Lube, insert, ROTATE.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:58 | 4106081 buzzsaw99

citi couldn't find their own ass with both hands employed in the search

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:04 | 4106127 ParkAveFlasher

What if they employed an army of part-time Pakistani consultants? Would it happen then?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:08 | 4106155 buzzsaw99

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3L8fIrWnXRA

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:39 | 4106334 Crash Overide

The low volume high algo market hangs on every news bite, this is the game... QE keeps coming until the day it stops, and then it won't matter.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:58 | 4106082 Took Red Pill

Not going to happen especially with new Fed Chair Yellen.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | 4106230 NoDebt

Oh, I completely disagree. ALL the talk I'm hearing lately is how the market always "challenges" a new Fed Chair. You just gotta believe this one, because it's always true according to the guy I talked to by the water cooler. You ain't cool if you're not spouting this new line.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:59 | 4106089 Frank N. Beans

Bullshit.

Gonna be Ground Hog Day all over again.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | 4106189 NotApplicable

But look how well this particular head-fake worked last time!

Given there is NO solution allowed, this stalling is all they've got.

Well... at least until the next distraction comes along...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:00 | 4106103 Kirk2NCC1701

What do the controlling/dominant shareholders (Saudis) say about this? Bandar Bush? Bueler? Anyone, anyone?

"One in the Bush is worth..."

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:17 | 4106207 john39

the saudis? you missed it by 'that' much...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:01 | 4106105 Iam Yue2

Citi lowers probability of "Grexit" to 60 percent from 90 percent

JOKERS?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:02 | 4106113 fooshorter

Can I have the 30 seconds of my life back it took me to ready this story?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:45 | 4106361 DeadFred

Sorry, there are no mulligan's on ZeroHedge. It's fight club rules.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:05 | 4106128 FieldingMellish

By taper I guess they mean untaper. $100B/month by March.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:15 | 4106197 yogibear

Exactly!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:06 | 4106136 Al Huxley

In his profile he left out 'never'.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:08 | 4106153 GoldenDonuts

Which is it? Has Citi and JPM already shorted everything or are they about to short everything before telling the Fed to announce a non existant taper?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:10 | 4106162 Al Huxley

Or they're long everything, trying to induce some fear in the market to create squeezable short positions. Free money -> long the market.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:11 | 4106168 lunaticfringe

Lunatic Fringe says chance of a taper, zero. Chance QE enlarges, 25%.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:11 | 4106171 SheepDog-One

LMFAO!

Wash...

Rinse...

Repeat...as many times as it takes!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:16 | 4106471 HardlyZero

CHURN !

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:12 | 4106172 asteroids

Citi 10 years ago traded for $500/share. Today, about $50. You get what you pay for I guess.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | 4106184 twh99

I'll bet you good money that there will be an increase in QE within months of Yellen being confirmed.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | 4106185 yogibear

How about 0% chance? Enough of this BS on tapering. It's not going to happen.

The Yellen and her 12 Fed stooges will keep blowing a larger and larger bubble in assets

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | 4106192 SheepDog-One

Will Ferrell doing his Harry Caray voiceover- 'HEY...can we BET on this thing?' Make it an index? Call it the TPX maybe? Taper Index? I wanna BET on it...get some ACTION here!'

For fucks sakes.....

? Modern Mojo - YouTube

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | 4106229 Bastiat

They are just pimping the USD--that's all this taper crap was about from the beginning. Since they CAN'T do it without cratering everything, they won't. To try and preserve what credibility the USD has the TBTF pimps will talk.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:29 | 4106281 SheepDog-One

Whole thing is now like a pack of winos staggering down an alley propping each other up best they can.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:52 | 4106385 DeadFred

Ben puts this in the 'Forward Guidance' category. Hey, don't knock it, it may be total BS but it works.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:29 | 4106284 moneybots

"Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%"

So now we start this game, again. With the economy what it is, i would guess that 65% actually works out to a round zero.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:30 | 4106294 tecno242

Do they really not realize...... or when will these a-holes finally figure out that they will NEVER taper. EVER.

NEVER idiots... NEVER.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:55 | 4106397 B.J. Worthy

This is like betting on WWE matches with Vince McMahon.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:23 | 4106503 QE49er

Here comes December in the back stretch, January is coming on the inside along with March, Beyond March needs to make up some ground...1/2 furlong to go...Beyond March making a great comeback, it's Beyond March by a nose..who would have known?!! someone had to have known something about that 80-1 Longshot...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:32 | 4106538 Gringo Viejo

LMAO. These guys just won't quit! Stop it! You're Killin' me!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:36 | 4106549 falak pema

these fukking banksters run from pillar to post. They know they will burn in hell either thru QE infinity or thru no QE.

As Ghordius said : the best worst solution is a mini retreat, 1 billion at a time. But, these FED guys are so shrouded in hubris when they are not frying in total panic.

Paranoia breeds the extremes in nightly screams.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:38 | 4106558 goldenbuddha454