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Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The most succinct post-mortem summary of the FOMC announcement comes from Citi's Stephen Englander. It is as follows:

After reading the Fed statement, CitiFX Head G10 Strategist Steven Englander says that he would put tapering odds at:

  • 20% December
  • 45% January
  • 25% march
  • 10% Beyond March

Before this meeting his estimates would have been:

  • 10% December
  • 25% January
  • 35% March
  • 30% Beyond March
 


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Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

How can you put odds on an arbitrary decision?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Talk your company's book, talk your own book, creative spreadsheet modeling, wishful thinking, make shit up...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:10 | Link to Comment King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Citi just shut the fuck up. This guess work and "reports" by banks is a ploy to create volatility based on some expectation of what will happen. Yellen is not going to taper QE. She is going to unleash more of it. $150 Billion a month.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:17 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Taper?
How fucking far out of touch with reality is this schmuck?

Dr Bernanke, don't forget to give the little ones their Kool-Aide

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:20 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Thanks for the update, Steve.  I'll take that under advisement.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:49 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

What odds did Steven Englander give regarding a September taper announcement back in August?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Stuart
Stuart's picture

Its as if these clowns need to justify their paycheque no matter how tiresome they get...   None of them have any credibility left, at all.  

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:03 | Link to Comment Scarlett
Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:42 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Where is the 'never' column? Do they bundle it into the beyond march choice? Guess I'm missing something.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

he didn't specify the year.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:54 | Link to Comment HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

It is cool the NSA did not hack GOOG or YHOO serves . wheww http://hedge.ly/19T7HMU 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

 

 

 

SilverIsKing's Odds of Tapering ...

  • 0% December
  • 0% January
  • 0% March
  • 0% Beyond March

SilverIsKing's Odds of an Increase in size of QE ...

  • 30% December
  • 40% January
  • 30% March
  • 0% Beyond March
Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:57 | Link to Comment TheFreeLance
TheFreeLance's picture

AKA Muppet Bait. Lube, insert, ROTATE.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

citi couldn't find their own ass with both hands employed in the search

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

What if they employed an army of part-time Pakistani consultants?  Would it happen then?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:39 | Link to Comment Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

The low volume high algo market hangs on every news bite, this is the game... QE keeps coming until the day it stops, and then it won't matter.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:58 | Link to Comment Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

Not going to happen especially with new Fed Chair Yellen.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, I completely disagree.  ALL the talk I'm hearing lately is how the market always "challenges" a new Fed Chair.  You just gotta believe this one, because it's always true according to the guy I talked to by the water cooler.  You ain't cool if you're not spouting this new line.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:59 | Link to Comment Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

Bullshit. 

 

Gonna be Ground Hog Day all over again. 

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

But look how well this particular head-fake worked last time!

Given there is NO solution allowed, this stalling is all they've got.

Well... at least until the next distraction comes along...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:00 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

What do the controlling/dominant shareholders (Saudis) say about this?  Bandar Bush?  Bueler?  Anyone, anyone?

"One in the Bush is worth..."

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:17 | Link to Comment john39
john39's picture

the saudis?  you missed it by 'that' much...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:01 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Citi lowers probability of "Grexit" to 60 percent from 90 percent

JOKERS?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:02 | Link to Comment fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

Can I have the 30 seconds of my life back it took me to ready this story?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sorry, there are no mulligan's on ZeroHedge. It's fight club rules.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

By taper I guess they mean untaper. $100B/month by March.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:15 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Exactly!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:06 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

In his profile he left out 'never'.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:08 | Link to Comment GoldenDonuts
GoldenDonuts's picture

Which is it?  Has Citi and JPM already shorted everything or are they about to short everything before telling the Fed to announce a non existant taper?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:10 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Or they're long everything, trying to induce some fear in the market to create squeezable short positions.  Free money -> long the market.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:11 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Lunatic Fringe says chance of a taper, zero. Chance QE enlarges, 25%. 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:11 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LMFAO! 

Wash...

Rinse...

Repeat...as many times as it takes! 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:16 | Link to Comment HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

CHURN !

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:12 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

Citi 10 years ago traded for $500/share. Today, about $50. You get what you pay for I guess.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment twh99
twh99's picture

I'll bet you good money that there will be an increase in QE within months of Yellen being confirmed.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

How about 0% chance? Enough of this BS on tapering. It's not going to happen. 

The Yellen and her 12 Fed stooges will keep blowing a larger and larger bubble in assets

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Will Ferrell doing his Harry Caray voiceover- 'HEY...can we BET on this thing?' Make it an index? Call it the TPX maybe? Taper Index? I wanna BET on it...get some ACTION here!'

For fucks sakes.....

? Modern Mojo - YouTube

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

 

They are just pimping the USD--that's all this taper crap was about from the beginning.  Since they CAN'T do it without cratering everything, they won't.  To try and preserve what credibility the USD has the TBTF pimps will talk.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whole thing is now like a pack of winos staggering down an alley propping each other up best they can.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Ben puts this in the 'Forward Guidance' category. Hey, don't knock it, it may be total BS but it works.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:29 | Link to Comment moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%"

 

So now we start this game, again.  With the economy what it is, i would guess that 65% actually works out to a round zero.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:30 | Link to Comment tecno242
tecno242's picture

Do they really not realize...... or when will these a-holes finally figure out that they will NEVER taper.   EVER.

NEVER idiots... NEVER.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:55 | Link to Comment B.J. Worthy
B.J. Worthy's picture

This is like betting on WWE matches with Vince McMahon.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment QE49er
QE49er's picture

Here comes December in the back stretch, January is coming on the inside along with March, Beyond March needs to make up some ground...1/2 furlong to go...Beyond March making a great comeback, it's Beyond March by a nose..who would have known?!!  someone had to have known something about that 80-1 Longshot...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

LMAO. These guys just won't quit! Stop it! You're Killin' me!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

these fukking banksters run from pillar to post. They know they will burn in hell either thru QE infinity or thru no QE.

As Ghordius said : the best worst solution is a mini retreat, 1 billion at a time. But, these FED guys are so shrouded in hubris when they are not frying in total panic.

Paranoia breeds the extremes in nightly screams. 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

I wish the FED would get off the crack, cold turkey so the rest of us could buy stocks at what they're really worth; about 25% their current value

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

Hey doc, contact me offline.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

Moar qe not  less

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Not gonna happen, hosers.  Ever.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:57 | Link to Comment rodocostarica
rodocostarica's picture

True tapering odds:

before 2015-0%

After 2015-0%

 

 

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