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    05/23/2016 - 18:16
    This past Thursday marked the one-year anniversary of the US stock market’s death when stocks saw their last high. Market bulls have spent a year looking like the walking dead. They’ve...

Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%

Tyler Durden's picture


The most succinct post-mortem summary of the FOMC announcement comes from Citi's Stephen Englander. It is as follows:

After reading the Fed statement, CitiFX Head G10 Strategist Steven Englander says that he would put tapering odds at:

  • 20% December
  • 45% January
  • 25% march
  • 10% Beyond March

Before this meeting his estimates would have been:

  • 10% December
  • 25% January
  • 35% March
  • 30% Beyond March
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Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:54 | 4106049 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

How can you put odds on an arbitrary decision?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:05 | 4106125 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Talk your company's book, talk your own book, creative spreadsheet modeling, wishful thinking, make shit up...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:10 | 4106151 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Citi just shut the fuck up. This guess work and "reports" by banks is a ploy to create volatility based on some expectation of what will happen. Yellen is not going to taper QE. She is going to unleash more of it. $150 Billion a month.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:17 | 4106206 knukles
knukles's picture

How fucking far out of touch with reality is this schmuck?

Dr Bernanke, don't forget to give the little ones their Kool-Aide

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:20 | 4106216 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Thanks for the update, Steve.  I'll take that under advisement.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:49 | 4106589 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

What odds did Steven Englander give regarding a September taper announcement back in August?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:18 | 4107619 Stuart
Stuart's picture

Its as if these clowns need to justify their paycheque no matter how tiresome they get...   None of them have any credibility left, at all.  

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:03 | 4107793 Scarlett
Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:42 | 4106352 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Where is the 'never' column? Do they bundle it into the beyond march choice? Guess I'm missing something.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:04 | 4106432 Fuh Querada
Fuh Querada's picture

he didn't specify the year.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:54 | 4106050 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

It is cool the NSA did not hack GOOG or YHOO serves . wheww http://hedge.ly/19T7HMU 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:54 | 4106604 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture




SilverIsKing's Odds of Tapering ...

  • 0% December
  • 0% January
  • 0% March
  • 0% Beyond March

SilverIsKing's Odds of an Increase in size of QE ...

  • 30% December
  • 40% January
  • 30% March
  • 0% Beyond March
Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:57 | 4106066 TheFreeLance
TheFreeLance's picture

AKA Muppet Bait. Lube, insert, ROTATE.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:58 | 4106081 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

citi couldn't find their own ass with both hands employed in the search

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:04 | 4106127 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

What if they employed an army of part-time Pakistani consultants?  Would it happen then?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:08 | 4106155 buzzsaw99
Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:39 | 4106334 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

The low volume high algo market hangs on every news bite, this is the game... QE keeps coming until the day it stops, and then it won't matter.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:58 | 4106082 Took Red Pill
Took Red Pill's picture

Not going to happen especially with new Fed Chair Yellen.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | 4106230 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, I completely disagree.  ALL the talk I'm hearing lately is how the market always "challenges" a new Fed Chair.  You just gotta believe this one, because it's always true according to the guy I talked to by the water cooler.  You ain't cool if you're not spouting this new line.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 15:59 | 4106089 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture



Gonna be Ground Hog Day all over again. 


Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | 4106189 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

But look how well this particular head-fake worked last time!

Given there is NO solution allowed, this stalling is all they've got.

Well... at least until the next distraction comes along...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:00 | 4106103 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

What do the controlling/dominant shareholders (Saudis) say about this?  Bandar Bush?  Bueler?  Anyone, anyone?

"One in the Bush is worth..."

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:17 | 4106207 john39
john39's picture

the saudis?  you missed it by 'that' much...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:01 | 4106105 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Citi lowers probability of "Grexit" to 60 percent from 90 percent


Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:02 | 4106113 fooshorter
fooshorter's picture

Can I have the 30 seconds of my life back it took me to ready this story?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:45 | 4106361 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Sorry, there are no mulligan's on ZeroHedge. It's fight club rules.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:05 | 4106128 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

By taper I guess they mean untaper. $100B/month by March.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:15 | 4106197 yogibear
yogibear's picture


Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:06 | 4106136 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

In his profile he left out 'never'.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:08 | 4106153 GoldenDonuts
GoldenDonuts's picture

Which is it?  Has Citi and JPM already shorted everything or are they about to short everything before telling the Fed to announce a non existant taper?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:10 | 4106162 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Or they're long everything, trying to induce some fear in the market to create squeezable short positions.  Free money -> long the market.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:11 | 4106168 lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

Lunatic Fringe says chance of a taper, zero. Chance QE enlarges, 25%. 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:11 | 4106171 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture




Repeat...as many times as it takes! 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:16 | 4106471 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture


Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:12 | 4106172 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Citi 10 years ago traded for $500/share. Today, about $50. You get what you pay for I guess.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | 4106184 twh99
twh99's picture

I'll bet you good money that there will be an increase in QE within months of Yellen being confirmed.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:14 | 4106185 yogibear
yogibear's picture

How about 0% chance? Enough of this BS on tapering. It's not going to happen. 

The Yellen and her 12 Fed stooges will keep blowing a larger and larger bubble in assets

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | 4106192 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Will Ferrell doing his Harry Caray voiceover- 'HEY...can we BET on this thing?' Make it an index? Call it the TPX maybe? Taper Index? I wanna BET on it...get some ACTION here!'

For fucks sakes.....

? Modern Mojo - YouTube

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:22 | 4106229 Bastiat
Bastiat's picture


They are just pimping the USD--that's all this taper crap was about from the beginning.  Since they CAN'T do it without cratering everything, they won't.  To try and preserve what credibility the USD has the TBTF pimps will talk.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:29 | 4106281 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Whole thing is now like a pack of winos staggering down an alley propping each other up best they can.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:52 | 4106385 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Ben puts this in the 'Forward Guidance' category. Hey, don't knock it, it may be total BS but it works.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:29 | 4106284 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"Citi Now Sees Odds Of A December/January Taper Announcement Doubling From From 35% to 65%"


So now we start this game, again.  With the economy what it is, i would guess that 65% actually works out to a round zero.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:30 | 4106294 tecno242
tecno242's picture

Do they really not realize...... or when will these a-holes finally figure out that they will NEVER taper.   EVER.

NEVER idiots... NEVER.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 16:55 | 4106397 B.J. Worthy
B.J. Worthy's picture

This is like betting on WWE matches with Vince McMahon.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:23 | 4106503 QE49er
QE49er's picture

Here comes December in the back stretch, January is coming on the inside along with March, Beyond March needs to make up some ground...1/2 furlong to go...Beyond March making a great comeback, it's Beyond March by a nose..who would have known?!!  someone had to have known something about that 80-1 Longshot...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:32 | 4106538 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

LMAO. These guys just won't quit! Stop it! You're Killin' me!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:36 | 4106549 falak pema
falak pema's picture

these fukking banksters run from pillar to post. They know they will burn in hell either thru QE infinity or thru no QE.

As Ghordius said : the best worst solution is a mini retreat, 1 billion at a time. But, these FED guys are so shrouded in hubris when they are not frying in total panic.

Paranoia breeds the extremes in nightly screams. 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:38 | 4106558 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

I wish the FED would get off the crack, cold turkey so the rest of us could buy stocks at what they're really worth; about 25% their current value


Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:57 | 4106619 kito
kito's picture

Hey doc, contact me offline.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:54 | 4106764 max2205
max2205's picture

Moar qe not  less

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