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Elliott's Paul Singer Warns "Something Is Wrong And Dangerous"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"The recent trading environment has felt something like walking into a place and having a sense that something is wrong and dangerous but not knowing exactly what will happen or when. “QE Infinity” has so distorted the prices of stocks and bonds that nobody can possibly determine what the investing landscape would look like, or what the condition of the economy and financial system would be, in the absence of Fed bond-buying."

 

-Paul Singer, Elliott Management

In his latest letter to investment partners, the outspoken realist pulls the curtain on everything from loss of faith on fiat currencies to unsound policies such as Obamacare, the missing jobs recovery, and media misunderstandings of the nature of hedge funds.

On The Fed's "temporary" effects on bonds and stocks:

The volatility in fixed income markets earlier this year, occasioned by the Fed’s use of the word “tapering” (meaning a possible gradual reduction in the pace of Fed bondbuying), resulted in medium- and long-term interest rates rising back to the levels of the spring of 2009. In other words, $3.8 trillion of bond-buying since 2008 by the Fed has had only a temporary effect on medium- and long-term interest rates. It is impossible to predict the prices of bonds in the event the Fed stops buying, or actually starts to sell off its massive portfolio, although it is a decent bet that prices would be much lower than current levels.

 

It is also not clear whether stock prices, which are still on a tear and at all-time nominal highs, are at these levels because of optimistic economic prospects, QE, or the beginnings of a loss of confidence in paper money causing a shifting of capital out of fixed income and into purportedly “real” assets. However, the fragility of capital markets, so reliant on zero percent interest rates (ZIRP) and QE Infinity for their equilibrium, is clearer. The markets’ ability to withstand any adversity is highly questionable, and it appears to us that the Fed is basically paralyzed (though they would probably call it “focused and determined”) and afraid (perhaps they would say “prudently risk-averse”) to reduce, much less eliminate, its bond-buying. In this environment, plain-vanilla ownership of stocks or bonds represents a highly conjectural bet on government-manipulated markets.

On The Fed's lack of effects on the real economy:

The Fed is undoubtedly praying that economic growth will accelerate, giving it proper cover to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the economy is now in its fifth year of subpar growth, with little pick-up in sight.

On Hedge Funds:

Lately we have seen a number of reports about the “disappointing” results of hedge funds. But as we have noted many times before, hedge funds that are actually hedging are unlikely to perform as well as equities during a bull run.

 

...

 

We understand it is not easy for investors to distinguish who is good and sustainable from who is a flash in the pan, but the task is worthwhile, and investors who do the hard work are likely to be pleased with their manager selection in the medium to long term. Unfortunately, the supply of firms that can produce (or at least have a reasonable prospect of achieving) absolute returns is far lower than the demand for such results.

On the "unsound" underlying structural issues of US Fiscal policy:

What has been happening with the U.S. federal government in its recent highly-theatrical phase, as contentious and difficult as it has been, is merely a precursor to much bigger events.

 

...

 

we are talking about the underlying structural issues of the federal budget deficit, economic growth, the deeply contentious Affordable Care Act, and the long-term insolvency of the country due to the government having made (and continuing to make) massively unpayable promises for the future. As we have pointed out, the current annual federal deficit, so ballyhooed to be “coming down nicely,” is actually catastrophically out of control. It is not a trillion dollars. The true figure is more like $7 trillion (and growing!) after accounting for unfunded liabilities, which are mounting at a fantastic pace. It is not an exaggeration to say that America is deeply insolvent, and for that matter, so are most of continental Europe, the U.K. and Japan. No combination of achievable growth rates and taxes can pay for the promises that have been made. The numbers are clear and inexorable.

 

None of the major governmental leaders in these regions is telling the truth about the present state of affairs and where it will lead, nor are they making the structural changes necessary to unlock the potential to grow their respective economies significantly faster than current rates.

 

...

 

As bad as the insolvency is, it would be infinitely worse if governments started to believe that just because they can print money, they can inflate their way out of these long-term obligations. That will not work and would lead the world down the road to total ruin.

 

...

 

The situation is deeply unstable. It is so sad that after the major developed countries recovered from World War II, they gradually morphed from soundly-financed global engines of growth and prosperity into massively over-indebted countries whose currencies will likely collapse well before your grandchildren start looking for their Social Security checks.

On The Global financial system's fragility:

The global financial system is not much healthier. In the last five years, laws and regulations have been passed, bankers have been pilloried, financiers have been vilified, “living wills” have been prepared and carefully and beautifully wrapped for presentation, regulatory entities have been formed and fresh-faced regulators, eager to save the world, have been hired and placed at new desks in front of new computers. But through it all, one thing has not changed: The major banking and other financial institutions remain opaque and overleveraged.

 

...

 

The really bad news is that the “hair-trigger” aspect of modern global trading markets is just getting more intense. Market action from earlier this year is a harbinger of how modern markets will react to a real change in perceptions. In this past spring’s episode, a sign from the Fed that it might gently begin scaling back the pace of its bond-buying caused medium- and long-term bonds to be abruptly repriced, which removed just about all of the price elevation caused by four years of Fed purchases. The lesson of the crash of 2008 was that it is essential to act immediately to save your assets from an uncertain counterparty or clearing firm.

On Yellen and The Fed admitting its wrong:

it is unlikely that her reign will be characterized by any more courage or deep understanding than that of her predecessor, “Helicopter Ben” Bernanke.

...

The problem is that they all, including Yellen, are looking in the wrong direction. Similar to Bernanke (and arguably more so), Yellen places a heavy reliance on the Fed’s data-driven financial models to draw conclusions and make predictions. Sadly, she also seems to share Bernanke’s lack of humility regarding the inescapable fact that the Fed’s models and predictions were catastrophically wrong about the financial system, financial institutions and risks in the period leading up to and during the financial crisis.

For the Fed’s governors to admit that they got it profoundly and tragically (for the millions of people who are unemployed, underemployed or now deeply steeped in the brine of dependency) wrong, and that their role needs to be more modest than holding up the entire world on their shoulders, would also take courage.

On ZIRP and QE's lack of societal benefit:

In the absence of that courage, which could only be exhibited by the Fed (or perhaps by Congress if it legislated an end to the “dual mandate”), it is not easy to see where current Fed policy leads the country. We believe that continued QE will not accelerate the economic recovery. We also believe that the recovery and the economy are distorted and unfair to ordinary citizens who do not own stocks or high-end real estate, which are priced at their highs. ZIRP and QE, therefore, are placing the economy at severe risk of another financial crisis and possibly a spike in inflation for no societal benefit.

On timing the collapse:

Although the risks are clear, the probabilities and timing are not.

 

We do know that the transmission mechanism would be a loss of confidence – in the government, in its ability to pay its obligations, in its ability to provide the conditions for acceptable levels of economic growth and job creation in a competitive world beset by the glories and challenges of job-crushing technological change, and in paper money itself.

On the idiocy of the counter-factual:

To those who maintain that things would have been even worse if the government hadn’t initiated QE2 (and beyond), our response is that this is the wrong test. The only justifiable reason to have done QE was to provide liquidity during the immediate emergency period. After that, a full range of policy tools – including tax, regulation, labor, trade, education, energy and innovation – should have been brought to bear to overcome the mess, get the economy growing as fast as it reasonably could and counteract the job-suppressive aspects of the march of otherwise-wonderful technology. If and only if those growth-enhancing policies failed would it have made sense to declare a further emergency and do something as distortionary and risky as further rounds of QE.

 

Frustratingly, in no part of the developed world were those “pro-growth” policies pursued. Instead, central bankers went right ahead after stepping back from the precipice and pursued QE in unprecedented size, from then until this day. In effect, this has provided cover for the leaders of the developed countries to continue buying votes with dependency-enhancing policies, avoiding difficult decisions and eschewing effective but contentious pro-growth policies. This is a bad mix, and it will lead to bad outcomes.

On The Endgame:

Chairman Bernanke has been administering painkillers and artificial respiration instead of telling the President and Congress to take intelligent action to improve economic growth. As we have said over and over: Leadership is wanting; leadership is needed.

 

If QE loses effectiveness now and the plug is pulled, the economic consequences could be disastrous, because the Fed didn’t force the President and Congress to adopt progrowth policies when it had the chance. At the same time, if the current course is maintained, the ultimate results are likely to be much worse.
 

 

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Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:49 | 4106593 alphamentalist
alphamentalist's picture

because bernanke

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:53 | 4106606 AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

because we live more in a derivative economy than an actual one

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:05 | 4106622 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Try to come up with a numbered list of what is genuinely "right" with the world.

Better to light a candle than to fix the powerplant.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:12 | 4106653 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

  We could not fix the brakes,   so we made the horn louder.

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:27 | 4106690 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

I am more concerned about losing the  purchasing power of cash than the loss of QE, or tapering.

Count me in as a bull.

I am investing more in solid companies  80% and gold. 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:33 | 4106702 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

a reprise - substitute Syria with anything current

www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-sdO6pwVHQ

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:29 | 4107396 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

Hey TSP $ will mean nothing. The real value of gold will be measured in energy, as in how many grams of gold/ bushel of wheat or how many grams per barrel of crude oil etc.

I think these charts will spike to all time highs. http://pricedingold.com/

 

Stack On

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:40 | 4107406 markmotive
markmotive's picture
I'd be worried about more than the current trading environment... Dr. Doom: “A Lot Of Problems Are Coming… Revolution… Social Strife…”

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/06/dr-doom-lot-of-problems-are-coming...

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 06:07 | 4107883 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Hey ROR. I've always said my call is measured in today's currency terms...so, a 100 bagger on today's Gold Price.

And, most Real Estate will take a 30-50% Swan Dive.

TSP

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:27 | 4107519 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

I'd chastise you for pimping your blog TSP, but I find it a great read.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 06:10 | 4107885 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Guilty as charged...and my blog looks like a crack ho...but you gotta get her out there.

In time we'll see how I fair.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:12 | 4107183 formadesika3
formadesika3's picture

zer0head,

That is funny. Thanks.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:54 | 4106708 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"prices rise the fastest where the hot money gets spent first"

-Candee, who I recently 'interviewed' at the Happy Pony Club

and knows a thing or two about what price to charge if you have the hot money

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:28 | 4106874 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture

Is this where I catch the bus to Astoria?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:50 | 4106949 bubblemania
bubblemania's picture

You better go to the Lemon Ice King of Corona

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:11 | 4107352 max2205
max2205's picture

Temporary?  5 years plus at least 2 moar....get real

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 02:17 | 4107760 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

And added a JATO rocket or two.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zq7xyjU-jsU

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:59 | 4106624 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

It's called new normal.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:49 | 4106942 bubblemania
bubblemania's picture

Bullish!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:52 | 4107109 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

By the pricking of my thumbs, something wicked this way comes.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:26 | 4107231 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Exactly, our economy isn't a real one anymore and it's based on leverage and derivatives to the point that we can't pay for all that debt.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:47 | 4106740 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Breaking News out of Cincinnati! TYLERS DEER ATTACKS CINCINNATI BRANCH OF FEDERAL RESERVE!!!  (WCPO, 6pm broadcast) Deer goes beserk in garden of fed building, charges at woman and crashes through plate glass windows! (I think that I heard it yelling,"END THE FED!".)

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:29 | 4106880 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Mad Deer disease?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:44 | 4107285 tsx500
tsx500's picture

Oh, Dear !

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 02:42 | 4107779 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Mad Deer disease?

Nah.  That the deer was a Zero Hedge reader seems like a more obvious explanation.

http://www.wcpo.com/news/local-news/hamilton-county/cincinnati/frantic-deer-runs-into-glass-window-of-the-federal-reserve-building-downtown

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:53 | 4107819 Harrison
Harrison's picture

You are in a maze of twisty passages, all alike. It is dark. You will probably be eaten by a grue.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:52 | 4106600 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

The sky falls slowly. BTFD.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:36 | 4106712 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

<AHEM>

This guy is JUST now figuring out something is wrong?

Pardon me sir......there is this thing called the internet.....and on the internet there is this website called ZeroHedge.com.

You get there by typing www.zerohedge.com

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:24 | 4106856 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

+55

A day late and a trillion dollars short.

 

"Welcome to the party, pal".

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:07 | 4107457 Save_America1st
Save_America1st's picture

@jumbotron

+1000....that was exactly was I was thinking as soon as I started reading this.  Not trying to or at all even needing to blow smoke up "the Tyler's" asses...but really...where has this guy been for the last few years while ZH has been blowing the doors off of everyone else on the interwebs hands down across the board non-fucking-stop nearly 24/7/365??????

His little fucking write-up, while accurate, but also fairly weak, should/could be piled high with a hundred links to ZeroHedge write-ups as proof of what his "theories" are based off of.

Gee, welcome to the game Neo...glad you finally took the Red Pill and joined us outside the Matrix.

It's like you just kinda wanna say, "No duuuuuuuhhhhhhh"....

LoL

 

 

 

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:33 | 4107531 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

The only thing going wrong is using Elliott Wave Theory to explain anything. I love how these Elliotts and Dows and other theorists just can't figure out the fucking game and they are not making any money on trading, just books, newsletters and speaking engagements. BTFD.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:47 | 4107556 Rock On Roger
Rock On Roger's picture

Fuck Waves, BTFATH ;-)

 

Stack On

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:10 | 4107799 rivoniaboy
rivoniaboy's picture

I owned my own Futures Broking Company and let me tell you something right here and now - those clients who called themselves Elliot Wave practitioners were by far the worst traders that I ever encountered in 20 years.

Consequently when I see the words Elliot Wave I know that it is going to be a pile of horseshit.

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:54 | 4106605 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture

 

Few years ago the best performing market was  in ... Zimbabwe - maybe this is what is so wrong and dangerous here as well?

Jim Sinclair: Debt, US Dollar and Gold 

 

 Cyprus bail-in was the grand experiment of money confiscation and coincided with the great smash of Gold. A lot of people have forgotten about this blue print for action and Gold manipulation has helped to disguise the real connections. Jim Sinclair reminds us about all these interconnections and the main factors in the chain of Debt, US Dollar and Gold. 

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/jim-sinclair-debt-us-dollar-and-gold.html#

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:11 | 4107354 tvdog
tvdog's picture

What is the price of gold in Cyprus these days?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:54 | 4106611 sockratte
sockratte's picture

lol

more and more experts going nuts on fed policy. they better get away asap, because once fed tapers, it will become really chaotic...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:46 | 4107293 Singelguy
Singelguy's picture

There will be NO taper! Keep repeating that until you understand it. QE will never stop until the dollar crashes.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:12 | 4107355 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

Once per year all crime will be legal for 12 hours
~ the Purge

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:55 | 4106615 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

No one can determine the condition of the financial system in absence of QE???  Well, I can.  And it ain't pretty.  Also, I bet the Fed governors can too...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:56 | 4107127 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Seems to be the case, as in this quote from the article:

The only justifiable reason to have done QE was to provide liquidity during the immediate emergency period. After that, a full range of policy tools – including tax, regulation, labor, trade, education, energy and innovation – should have been brought to bear to overcome the mess...

You realize, of course, that the "policy tools" would have required that Congress act, and that is something that they are not capable of lest they step on some contributors' toes.  It was easier to just have the Fed dollar-whip the problem instead of taking some serious and concrete moves to ameliorate the pain.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:45 | 4107551 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Rocky,

 

...and as there isn't a single Statesman left in Congress, of course they all stepped aside to let the Fed take the ultimate fall. I think we'll get the end signal when Con-gress is, in bipartisan unison, calling to end the Fed.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:33 | 4107807 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Congress won't even think about calling to end the Fed until either there is a demand at literal gunpoint, or until after the carcass of the Fed is so gone that the stench of decomposition noticeable miles away.  Since I don't see any armies lining up to point rifles at congress to demand the end of the Fed, you had better pay attention to your nose. 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 17:59 | 4106625 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Something is wrong and people know it.

Even non investing types are at least talking about conserving cash, they have a hunch that they might be needing it down the track.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:30 | 4106695 forwardho
forwardho's picture

My lawn guy felt he had to tell me of the disaster that is coming. A high school drop out, who has made good by hard work and has no knowledge of financial matters is now certain we are screwed.

As to the post; massively over-indebted countries whose currencies will likely collapse well before your grandchildren start looking for their Social Security checks.

Jesus, is that optomistic.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:07 | 4107159 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

the sense of foreboding has become significantly palpable, however ephemeral it is to quantify

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:52 | 4107568 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Yup, and this is the stuff of collapses in confidence. Starts from the ground up.  Lady working at the contental breakfast in the motel the other day remarked "There's trouble coming, big trouble. I'm stocking up." 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:12 | 4106820 20834A
20834A's picture

Something is wrong, and even the most somnolent are starting to sense it. I hear people talking about how dissatisfied they are with America lately. Even whispers of revolution in the grocery aisle. Do I think they'll act? Not without a big catalyst, and a leader.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:42 | 4107077 booboo
booboo's picture

Sum Ting Wong say's his friend at the Fed, Foo Tu Hi say Soon Time Tu Duc

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:51 | 4107103 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Leaders get a bullet in the head.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:27 | 4107386 bigrooster
bigrooster's picture

And they will be remembered through the ages.  What is your choice, shitting in your diaper dying of old age?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:44 | 4107674 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

a great book came out in 1996 warning about Globalization and instead called for more local economies

The Case Against the Global Economy

http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/938165.The_Case_Against_the_Global_Ec...

 

again..  came out in 1996 !!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:00 | 4106629 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

No shit, huh?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:07 | 4106644 falak pema
falak pema's picture

you see these guys now crawling out of the woodwork singing : Something is rotten in the kingdom of Denmark.

Where were you scions of newly found virtue, five years ago or even more, fifteen years ago, when the rot was visible to those who had a sense of historic memory?

When Clinton pulled the plug on Glass Steagall all to please Sandy Weill and Rob Rubin of the squid. How memory fails us when the democrats become plutocrats of NWO Bushist crusade and red and blue are on the same page of Oligarchy hubris.

No checks and balances and all crony comfy sleight of hand. LEts all drink tea fellas, its just as good as Bush/Enron/Halliburton diluted cawfee! 

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:08 | 4106645 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

THe quite purposeful destruction of the middle class continues; it has been the agenda all along.  Please connect the dots folks.  Obamacare is the crowning achievement of both the Marxists and the fascists in control.  Who, among all of you out there, will really see an increase in disposable income next year?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:26 | 4106687 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Obamacare is the crowning achievement of both the Marxists and the fascists in control.

What was Medicare Part D?   Free enterprise at its best?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 12:00 | 4108749 Buckaroo Banzai
Buckaroo Banzai's picture

You are correct. The federal takeover of the health care industry began over 40 years ago. You couldn't have ObamaCare without Medicare first.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:30 | 4106694 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

How many will see any income next year?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:10 | 4107172 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

your income is all disposable, only

in a centrally planned world, its theirs to dispose of

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:13 | 4106658 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

...bankers have been pilloried, financiers have been vilified...

Bullshit.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:32 | 4106701 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

Bankers plus Unions plus Government = Bad news for the middle class

Bankers less Military less Government = Bad news for the bankers 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:43 | 4107816 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

Bankers + guillotines = profit?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:15 | 4106662 conspicio
conspicio's picture

Funniest shit I have seen all day, well, other than that hot new rock band "Sebelius and the Republicans." Yes, it is safe for work, watch the whole thing.

http://i.imgur.com/gIzmbBf.gif

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:18 | 4106665 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

The market matches what Merica has become over the last 60+ years.   A wild west with gunslingers, no law,  and gamblers.

But,   unlike a movie,  John Wayne ain't comin' into town to clean things up.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:19 | 4106668 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

The Fed is paying full price for financial assets that are marked to market at a much lower price. My guess is that the danger lurks in financial assets because that is where the distortion enters.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:24 | 4106680 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re; The Fed is paying full price for financial assets that are marked to market at a much lower price. 

The Yellen magic show...

Watch Janet make the debt disappear...

(Poof,  crowd gasps... )

All gone!

(Loud applause...)

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:20 | 4106669 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

Oh shit!

I've got to short this market. Something is wrong. Very wrong. I'm going to Costco tomorrow to add to my prepper supplies.

When are we going to DOW 10? I think it'll be March 2014.

Fuck You Mark Haines! And yout CNBC generational low-speak. You're dead and we're blowing in the breeze. At least all the ZH shorts are.....

Dangerous, extremely dangerous!

Over.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:57 | 4106772 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Have you had your Thorazine level checked lately?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:22 | 4107025 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

Think I should? What else do you suggest?

As long as it's covered by my Obamacare I'll do it.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:23 | 4106679 I need Another Beer
I need Another Beer's picture

YeeeeHaaaawww!!! Killed a 8 pt Sunday morn and I aint even warmed up.Hunting though has liked to killed me, I can.t do like I used too.Won't be long and I will have to give up the evening hunt unless its cold enough to leave hanging, know what I mean ???

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:25 | 4106685 lakecity55
lakecity55's picture

Cool. The Plan to make the US into a National Socialist Dictatorship is moving right along.

Sieg Heilobama!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:26 | 4106688 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

What I've always found is that, if you take a rubber band and stretch it and stretch it and stretch it, then eventually - it just stays there and it's like you never stretched it in the first place, and you can start stretching it again as if you'd never stretched it in the first place.  I think this qualifies me to be on the FED board of governors at least, and probably to be either FED chairman or CEO of JPM or GS.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:37 | 4106716 forwardho
forwardho's picture

Congrats for the new def of getting stretched.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 03:57 | 4107823 El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I did that once.  The last time I was stretching it, it broke, and came flying back right into my fucking eye.  It's funny in context, but let me tell you, that shit fucking hurt.  Bad.  I had the eye patch and all over that.  I couldn't drive for the first day, then for the next few nights.  The lights of oncoming traffic were excruciating.  It wasn't one of those skinny rubber bands either.  I did the full monty there. 

 

i'll take that rubber band in the eye again if I can forgo what the Fed and its bankster trollops are going to do to us.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:26 | 4106689 WTFUD
WTFUD's picture

The pickled pork vinaigrette in a barrel of rotten apples running a sideshow bob circus! Get my drift?
Bunch of bad B movie actors with platinum monthly welfare cheques and lobbyist banker/corp handmedowns.
SorryMotherFuckers who have lost the plot and would sell the country to the highest bidder.
Scum!!!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:38 | 4106719 Flagit
Flagit's picture

this thread is fucking booooring.

lets have a caption/headline contest. comments are welcome as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ik-RYOy7nME

warning: this vid made not one, but TWO active navy seals, become violently ill.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:53 | 4107307 tsx500
tsx500's picture

you need a hobby.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 07:16 | 4107982 Flagit
Flagit's picture

+1

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:45 | 4106734 starman
starman's picture

last 10 years 30 + % inflation

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 18:51 | 4106753 ramacers
ramacers's picture

can't wait til "clean-up " time; eradicating media propagandists, corpoate/political statists and confiscating their ill-begotten wealth. it'll be delicious. but, for the fence sitters, whoa! anxious times a comin'.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:17 | 4106795 pauhana
pauhana's picture

Here's my solution:  DON'T PARTICIPATE!  Refuse to become another cog in the wheel.  Save yourself and your family.  If nothing happens, what have you lost?  If TSHTF, you have carved out security for yourself.  Read the postings from Cognitive Dissonance and wife.  Be prepared.  It's the Boy Scout's marching song!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:07 | 4106803 mvsjcl
mvsjcl's picture

Mr Singer still speaks of "growth." That isn't happening, and hasn't for quite some time.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:17 | 4106839 Rock the Casbah
Rock the Casbah's picture

yea, yea - why aren't people selling??

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:08 | 4106884 4 wheel drift
4 wheel drift's picture

"something is wrong and dangerous but not knowing exactly what will happen or when"

it is like a spring.....   the more you wind it.....   the more it will either.....    spring back violently....  or worse....   it will break....   either way... it will render the spring useless to what the purpose of its original design and function was intended....

take a spring on a car suspension....  (especially integrated with a shock absorber as in a strut)....    the purpose is to smooth the "bumps on the road" and allow the steering to be capable of negotiating not only the curves, and bumps of said road, but to regulate the inertia and transfers of the car's own weight... (more or less...  control of the "unsprung weight" of said car -lol @ unsprung wieght)  hence successfully "drive" the car...

well... i have been feeling such since waaaaaaaaaaaay back to 1991 (or threabouts)  and it is when i first figured out that the labor dept. was LIYING and in CAHOOTS with the FED  (and obviously the thieves... er...  i mean the gov.)  the sad reality is that they were doing this way before... i was just either not paying attention, or i was not here...  (USA)

the point.....

the dogdamned US economy "spring" has been wound for a freaking loooooooooong time...  and ONCE AGAIN...   (gezuz i sound like a broken record!!!)  these sons of whores have been getting away with this because of the USD status as a reserve country.....   hence the difficulty of "predicting with exactitude"  (guessing... ?  i do not want to sound as a freaking ekonomist...   -lol)  the exact time.... is at best....   a guessing game...   ooops ! i do sound like a freaking ekonomist....   :^(

however....   with the muslim in the WH  (MITWH)  this event has been accelerated to warp speed.... (which leads me to be convinced that MITWH is doing this in purpose.....  ha!...  i now sound like a conspirationalist....   oh well...    when the answer to a problem leads you to the simplest answer..... never mind....   -g

therefore.......

given the circumstances....   the best answer (from an individual's point of view)  is to prepare in advance to the worst case scenario....   as in.....   "hope for the best.....  prepare for the WORST"

obviously, the degree of prepardness is dependant of one's age, since life is limited...  the expiration date is assured...  (regardless of politicians -and certain google executives  -g- claims to the contrary)

but the break is assured.... regardless (indeed in spite) of the ekonomist's predictions (yes, that impllies they are working for the thieves....  er..  gov.)

anyway...    big forces at play, difficult to predict with exactitude.....   but once again the purpose is to protect yourself from these kleoptomaniacs-oligarch sons of whires...

boicot the system.......    it is indeed a good thing as it boosts your ego, and your health (since you will be forced to become physically active.....  and for the best of all this....

DO AWAY WITH THE IDEA OF FREAKING "RETIREMENT"

imagine those in earlier ages....  stopping to work because you have a "pension"   -LOL

fuck that shit   (FTS)

being active makes you younger, both physically and mentally.....  as for the ill....

well, sorry about that.....  (honestly)  i wished it would be differently.....  (btw study your life style choices, maybe it could have made a difference....)  the point is....   we shoiuld not be FORCED to PAY and be martirs for the benefit of those......  who chose differently, or have been unlucky....

WHICH IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT A PRIVATE AND WILLING SYSTEM OF ASSISTANCE COULD NOT BE CREATED BY THOSE WHO ARE WILLING TO DO SO)...

anyway....    yes, i agree... something is definitively wromg and the "shit hitting the fan" moment is coming soon.....

 

meanwile...  in the name of mental health....

 

FTS   ----   g

 

end of rant

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:57 | 4107318 tsx500
tsx500's picture

mushrooms ?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:14 | 4107362 worbsid
worbsid's picture

that was a good rant but this rant about Obamacare (and other subjects) is classic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQxmc498f3E

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 19:41 | 4106920 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

ZIRP is Economic Arsenic in Goldilock's Kool-Aid.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:00 | 4106980 jon dough
jon dough's picture

..."counteract the job-suppressive aspects of the march of otherwise-wonderful technology"

 

did this guy write that line for Owe-bama?

 

"you see it when you go to a bank you use the ATM, you don't go to a bank teller"

 

Neo-Luddites, Backwards!

 

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:22 | 4107018 Emergency Ward
Emergency Ward's picture

"The Fed is undoubtedly praying...."

 

There's always prayer when the technology doesn't seem to be helping.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 20:35 | 4107061 Lordflin
Lordflin's picture

The Luddites were ahead of their time...!

... so to speak...

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 08:39 | 4107062 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

"Ballad of a Thin Man" (Highway 61 Revisited, by Bob Dylan): "Something is happening here but you don't know what is; do you, Mr. Jones?"

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:14 | 4107195 yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

The sky is falling!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:25 | 4107229 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

the sky has been falling since 666 on the S&P and one day it will. but for now enjoy the triple baggers and homeruns contained in your porfolio

 

now sky falling does not necesssairly Dow 10,000 party hat time, it could mean http://image.shutterstock.com/display_pic_with_logo/98152/98152,12380015...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:08 | 4107344 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I have one of these and I want singles...

http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/330661456177?lpid=82

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:23 | 4107221 pndr4495
pndr4495's picture

Sung to the tune of FOR WHAT IT"S WORTH by Buffalo Springfield :  Nothin's happenin' here

                                                                                                 What it is , is so very clear

                                                                                                 Goldman Sachs has a gun over there

                                                                                                 Tellin' AIG they got to beware

                                                                                                 I think it's time to Stop ! traders what's that sound ?                                                                                                          Everything traded's melting down 

                                                                                                 There's battle lines bein' drawn                                                                                                                                        J. Aron's right everybody else is wrong

                                                                                                 Scheming banksters speakin' their minds                                                                                                                          Billion dollar bailouts from behind

                                                                                                 I think it's we Stop ! hey what's that sound ?                                                                                                                      Everything traded's melting down

                                                                                                 It's a field day for investment banks                                                                                                                                A billion suckers on Main Street                                                                                                                                        Tradin' sub-prime , CDOs and gaming the game                                                                                                                Everybody says they screwed us again

                                                                                                 It's time we Stop ! hey , what's that sound ?                                                                                                                      Everything traded's melting down

                                                                                                 Goldman's hand - it thrusts deep                                                                                                                                      Into our pockets yes it does creep                                                                                                                                    It starts when you trade 'em off their price                                                                                                                        Step out of line , they sweep the ladder clean

                                                                                                 We better Stop ! hey , what's that sound ?                                                                                                                        Everybody look what's melting down                                                                                                                                  Stop ! hey , what's that sound?                                                                                                                                        Everybody look what's goin' down                                                                                                                                      Stop ! now , what's that sound?                                                                                                                                        Everybody look what's melting down                                                                                                                                  Stop ! children what's that sound?                                                                                                                                    Everybody look what's goin' down

This country has a serious problem as G. Edward Griffin has said during many of his lectures.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

 

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:04 | 4107335 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

That's a great song Sir.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:31 | 4107249 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

Has Paul Singer considered that he is part of the problem?

Or has he simply been looking all these years for someone else to cry foul, and fix things up?

Or was he not really paying attention to the undercurrent, as long as returns were just fine?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:36 | 4107262 DOGGONE
DOGGONE's picture

To end the big con, show people this!
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1230886

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:45 | 4107288 adr
adr's picture

Facebook is worth $100 billion+ based on $2 billion of advertising revenue in ads nobody looks at.

And you're just now thinking something is wrong?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:47 | 4107295 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

The US Treasury only lost $10 billion on their GM shares sale.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:54 | 4107311 yogibear
yogibear's picture

"appears to us that the Fed is basically paralyzed"

Yellen and her 12 PhD Fed stooges will keep printing even as there is a run on the US dollar crashes and burns. Like 13 deers standing the railroad track as a freight train  comes roaring closer.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 21:59 | 4107323 TwoHoot
TwoHoot's picture

The problem is that the FED can print money but they can't print tortillas.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:05 | 4107330 honestann
honestann's picture

The author is smart, and much of what he says is correct within the utterly erroneous and counter-productive context he holds.  For example, he says:

As we have said over and over: Leadership is wanting; leadership is needed.

Now, even an anarchist will admit that less harmful actions cause less harm.  So there is no doubt that "better (smarter, less unfair, more benevolent) leadership" will cause less harm than the craven predatory leadership that currently dominates planet earth.

However, this formulation denies the fundamental issue - that it is unethical and predatory for any individual to lead any other.  In other words, leadership is inherently evil (adopting here the meaning of leadership the author intends).

What needs to be eliminated is consequences shifting, which is the fundamental activity leadership practices.  What needs to happen is, every individual needs to enjoy/bare/suffer all the consequences of his own actions, and enjoy/bare/suffer zero consequences of the actions of others.  In other words, people need to get what they deserve - good, bad, neutral and debatable.

This is the solution... and the solution to far more than "the economy".

What happens when individuals come to understand that they (and their elected thugs) cannot shift the consequences of their actions onto others, or shift the consequences of actions taken by others onto themselves?

Simple.  Individuals endeavor to identify and take productive and non-destructive actions --- because they will benefit.  And a world in which most individuals behave this way is --- a very efficient, pleasant, healthy, happy place to live.

That so many humans are willing to accept consequences shifting as a way of life, and a way of interacting with others, is the reason humanity will continue to spiral down the toilet.  At this point in history, it appears the only viable (but extremely difficult) escape for those who wish to live an honest, ethical, productive, benevolent life --- is to leave the planet.  Sad.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:29 | 4107395 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Nice one. Not so odd that the regulars to zh eventually come to similar conclusions. One of my recurring themes over the years and repeated at least half a dozen times is my belief that to impose your will on another person, for good reasons or bad, is evil.

When articles like this mention " investors", I have to smile. In an environment where money is rapidly losing its value in storage, and subject to fees, taxes, and the vagaries of fx rates each time it is used, there are no investors. Only risk managers facing the daily hurdle of criminal forces that seem to control every facet of life to steal the fruits of our labours. 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:47 | 4107424 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I have to respect that comment YHC.  Well stated.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:44 | 4107552 emersonreturn
emersonreturn's picture

YHC-FTSE

nice one yourself

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 08:06 | 4108064 autonomos
autonomos's picture

So we need a democratic constitution

Fri, 11/01/2013 - 00:08 | 4110861 honestann
honestann's picture

Democracy == Slavery (by majority).

We need "self rule"... for everyone.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 09:16 | 4107397 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Well stated, but please don't leave the planet anytime soon.  You should stay in the game with the rest of us, if just to annoy the powers that be...

You are arguing for a free market, where everyone makes decisions and gets rewards or suffers consequences based on operating within the free market.  Most, and hopefully all here, would agree with that. You buy a house you can't pay for, well sorry, but you lose it. You work for a financial firm that has crap risk management, you lose your equity and your job. You eat donuts all day and smoke, guess what, the rest of the country shouldn't have to pay for your healthcare.

However, I don't think leadership is evil.  Your comments represent leadership.  Leadership is about doing the right thing, not dominating others or shifting consequences for political advantage. 

Fri, 11/01/2013 - 00:07 | 4110857 honestann
honestann's picture

There's nothing wrong with "lead by example".

That's the natural dynamic - how life should be.

This is what happens naturally and unavoidably when people enjoy/bare/suffer the consequences of their own actions, and enjoy/bare/suffer zero consequences of the actions of others.

Why?

Because people are smart enough to look around and see what actions other people take, and what consequences they enjoy/bare/suffer.  And they adopt those actions that they see lead to consequences they will enjoy, and avoid actions that lead to consequences they would suffer.

This is not rocket science!  This is obvious.

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:27 | 4107464 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Leadershipship and the need to be lead are symbiotic. People crave leadership, look at the innate human obsession to kneel before a god and defend (to the death in many cases) their right to be subdued by their god. We are still primitive, we still foster the thinking of our deep past. Look at the way chimpanzees behave in a group. Add some legislation, gold plated bathroom taps and some suits and you're looking at Congress. Now that is being obviously facectious but the point remains, our brains have a deep memory (I'd say genetically structural even) that if you don't bow down to power you are destroyed (The subordinate male chimp has to approach the dominate male with his hindquarters raised iand presented to the leader, the ultimate form of submission). This is a marvellous conundrum in contemplating the advancement of our species. I still hold quite strongly that we may indeed be a dead end species beecause we cannot seem to unshackle our minds from the ancient past.

Watch how many christians emerge from the woodwork in defense of their belief in god, in defense of their supreme leader. To them being lead is good, in fact the greatest thing the universe could bestow on a lowly human. They'll say, some leaders are evil and despotic but our leader is special (North Korea anyone!!!!!!) These people just further advance my point. I understand their adamant claim that god exists, because in the sense of having the neural network to support these thoughts, those neural networks physically exist, which to the holder of the belief is indistinguishable from god actually existing (outside of their mind). There are some phenomenally complex cultural, societal and pyschological feedback loops in place that have had centuries upon which to reinforce. The brain hosting the neural structures supporting the belief has the ability through speech, writing and art to project these ideas and thoughts out into the physical world or external reality. These concepts, words and images are then consumed by the next believer (A crucial point: It takes a child, generally, to accept the stories without question) so given enough time it becomes impossible to distinguish true external relaity from the projections of internal relaities onto the external world. The simple fact is there is no direct evidence of a man in the sky reading our thoughts and answering peoples requests for help. I know, christians will resort to "well look at a sunset, do you feel awe" but evidence of this nature, presented to a court for example, would be thrown out by the judge. When the internal reality is vastly different from the external relality of course these  forms of so called "evidence" have no other choice but emerge. 

Natural selection has selected species many times that consist of groups that have a powerful male leader. We are still primitive in the big scheme of things and you'd find society would decend into chaos without leadership. Even if a primary leader was removed people would instantly form smaller groups with their own leaders. It's strange when you really stop and think about it but many things are strange when it comes to humans. Have you ever wondered why marriage is such an important concept. The majority of humans cannot consider having children without first getting married. When you stop and really think about this, what has changed pre and post marriage. A basic ritual has taken place, a pre-determined set of words and actions that all run to a similar timetable. What is it about the human mind that somehow makes something deeply significant of this ritual. Nothing has physically changed in the external world (OK, a marriage certificate and ring and photos), the only thing that has changed (of any significance), presumably is additional neural paths have been laid. This is similar somehow to leaders. In our day to day lives we never give a jot of thought to the current leader but take him away and society will probably collapse. Why. I suspect the answer is deeply seated in our ancient past. Withoiut a dominant male chimpanzee to keep the young males in check, maybe the young males just run rampant. why they would run rampant is just another question leading down the rabbit hole but I suspect something is true for humans. Take away authority and young males will rampage.

 

Fascinating.

 

 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:07 | 4107582 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

Your Anthropological assumptions and current observations about chimpanzees might be grand for that species. And well put by your understanding.  But for Humans, the DNA, the evolutionary timeclock of life, for an intelligent, top of the food chain life form, are off by 4 to 6 million years. When the chimpanzees' need bananas, they take them. When a human wants a banana in this life, he buys it.

Two completely different scenarios developed over millions of years. With a distinction that we buy them bananas, because of our labor, versus we take, just because it's there. 

Comparing the two species in current time, outside the basic instincts of human versus simbian, is pure nonsense.

Unless, of course, we as a human species become so dumbed downed' that we become as chimpanzees, then your assumption may be correct.

Other than that, stick with Anthropology. 

Homo Sapiens are the most dangerous form of life on the planet.  With Laws and Governments it gets even worse.

 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:08 | 4107597 akak
akak's picture

 

Unless, of course, we as a human species become so dumbed downed' that we become as chimpanzees

Have you ever seen a photo of the current American president, or ever listened to him sans teleprompter?

 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:27 | 4107635 The Old Man
The Old Man's picture

akak,

Yes, many times.

We are being sold.

But I only believe what is in me.

All this stuff, so many people, believing.

Chimpanzees? Beginning to believe? Scripted text, fixed media, Government media, a reality to the masses.

A joke to people in some kind of correct mind.

Good to hear from you. Read you and agree. 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 01:21 | 4107715 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

jesus h christ, "look at the the current president". George W Bush actually does look chimp like and if you gave him a type writer an an infinite amout of time I don't even think he'd bang out a copy of Doctor Zeus's Green Eggs and Ham.

Fri, 11/01/2013 - 00:01 | 4110841 honestann
honestann's picture

Yes.  Now you've figured it out!

And I refer now to at least 99.999% of the population, not just "leaders".

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:59 | 4107691 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

The comparison to Chimpanzees is purely an analogy, not a directand empirical comparison. I'm simply highlighting behaviour our common ancestors engaged in that probably still seep into our behaviour today. We can't deny our past, we are the product of maybe trillions of generations going all the eay back to the single cell. The more complex the organism, the more entrenched the characteristic or behaviour probably becomes. Thus we most likely exhibit many short comings (only short comings in todays organisaed society but certainly necessary to survival hundreds of thousands of years ago) that an ancestors exhibited.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 01:13 | 4107709 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

"When the chimpanzees' need bananas, they take them. When a human wants a banana in this life, he buys it".

Does this apply to the banksters. 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 23:59 | 4110839 honestann
honestann's picture

No, this does not apply to the banksters, because banksters are predators.

Frankly, the distinction should have been:
  - just grab a banana if you want it.
  - produce a banana if you want it.

Yes, in practice most people "buy" the banana.  But the indirectness of the process hides what is the crucially important and fundamental point.  Whatever you traded for the banana, you had to produce.

Which means, to obtain their needs and wants, humans must produce, not destroy/steal/grab.

Modern humans must produce because... the naturally occurring processes of the earth environment only generates enough goods and goodies to support roughly one out of every 10,000 humans.  If humans do not resort to production, 99.99% of humans must die.  If you advocate predatory behavior, you support killing at least 99.99% of mankind.  If you advocate productive behavior, every human alive today can live a much better life than is currently possible with so much predatory destruction offsetting the productive behavior that exists.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:21 | 4107625 bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

The only thing standing in the way of all middle class across the globe from being united in their demise is a compelling leader in each of their respective countries.  The majority want the same thing, justice and equality for all, reasonableness, to be able to sleep at night.  Leadership in place has been selected to ensure the duct tape doesn't come off.

 

Leadership is a man who has been hired to stay at the wheel 24/7.  The rest of us fill holes and keep the fire going.  It's a community that keeps the vulnerable safe and the people from resorting to cannibalism if a drought hits.  It just makes sense.

The high road isn't always the shortest road but what is the hurry?  Rush to make profits at any and all cost will result in blowback but that is besides the point, this trend is at a pace that convinces me a comet's debris is going to bombard earth both ways and after that is anybody's guess.  Nothing else explains this we have before us.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 01:12 | 4107707 BringOnTheAsteroid
BringOnTheAsteroid's picture

Actually thinking about this further it's possible to deduce why young male chimps would rampage absent a strong dominant male leader. It comes down to a finely tuned balance. A chimp has to be aggressive in order to survive however the survival of a chimp in a group, evolution has dictated, is better than being alone. This raises an immediate dilemma. How does the group stay together if all the males are aggressive, they'd just kill each other. The dominant male leader is the answer. He provides the finely tuned balance between being aggressive enough for the individual to survive and not so aggressive as to undermine the group.

When we take a close look at human behaviour it is very hard to deny that we have emerged from a common ancenstor.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 08:32 | 4108123 ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Domination by the leader you don't know is the sustainable strategy. The world you describe brings a wake-up call in the mirror of a soldier who realizes they have fought for a corporate army that cared nothing about their life but the spoils it delivered away, and their time is almost over to fight for their own truth.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 23:52 | 4110822 honestann
honestann's picture

What you completely fail to recognize is the utterly fundamental bifurcation of mankind from "predator" to "predator" and "producer".  You certainly aren't the only one to notice this.

At some point in earth history, all animals were essentially predators.  Their modus-operandi was to find anything in the environment that could keep them alive, grab it, and consume it.  The number of creatures the earth supported was thereby limited to the naturally occurring processes in the earth environment.  These naturally occurring processes were sufficient to support less than one million humans worldwide.

Though the exact number of humans the natural processes of earth support is quite variable from time to time (as weather patterns and other factors change), the relevant point remains: the naturally occurring processes of earth only supports roughly 0.01% of the current human population.

That is, until humans learned something no other animal had ever learned or practiced to a substantial degree --- to become producers.

This was not just a minor change.  Not only did the quantity of human population explode by a factor of 10,000 or so, many other aspects of the way of life fundamentally changed, and the potential for future change broke wide open (for example, opening the entire universe to eventual colonization).

Sadly, some humans refused to give up the old ways.  They remain predators to this day.  And, in fact, because modern humans allowed their brains to be manipulated by the predators, the predators overwhelmingly dominate today.  Which is why, of course, productivity falls, and humans start thinking the earth cannot support so much human life.

Well of course earth cannot support much human life when humans behave as predators --- or are largely controlled by predators.  We already covered that.  A full return to predator behavior would require 99.99% of humans die.  But because the predators now control the destructive power of productive technology, the number of humans exterminated could be 99.999% or 99.999999% or... total annihilation.

If you want to trace human behavior back to ancestors, the above is what you need to focus on.  Note this utterly fundamental bifurcation in the development of mankind.  This is far and away the most crucial, important and fundamental aspect of human behavior and development that controls earth today, and will determine the ultimate fate of mankind.

Will it be predator or producer?  Will it be annihilation, pain, agony, domination, destruction and chaos, or will it be honesty, ethics, production, benevolence and a happy, healthy future for unlimited humans for eternity, spreading across the galaxy and perhaps eventually the entire universe?

You talk about survival.  Think about the bifurcation.

For a predator to survive requires destruction.

For a producer to survive requires production.

As you say, a producer may need aggression.

A producer most certainly has no need for aggression.

A producer only needs to be left alone so he can invest his time, effort, thought and resources to produce more and more and more goods and goodies, and to constantly improve the efficiency of his productive processes.

To pretend that predatory behavior is inherently the only possible behavior is a travesty to all those humans in the past and today who practice productive behavior.

As long as humans believe you and people like you, they accept the absence of any alternative to aggression, domination and destruction.  And that will continue mankind down the currently dominant path down the toilet of history.

Wake up, and recognize the choice.  What are you?  Predator or producer?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 23:26 | 4110740 honestann
honestann's picture

Leadershipship and the need to be lead are symbiotic. People crave leadership, look at the innate human obsession to kneel before a god and defend (to the death in many cases) their right to be subdued by their god... our brains have a deep memory (I'd say genetically structural even) that if you don't bow down to power you are destroyed.   I still hold quite strongly that we may indeed be a dead end species because we cannot seem to unshackle our minds from the ancient past.

I am impressed that you zeroed in on the appropriate issue to respond to, but disappointed you didn't notice your conclusion is exactly backwards.  Let me clarify by means of my personal example.

I remember clearly the crucial life event for me, the event that made me different from the vast majority of humans.  I was 4 years old.  Already for about one year I struggled with what I considered my fundamental problem.  When I posed a question to several adults, I received several different answers.  Even to an average 4-year old the problem is obvious --- which adult and which answer to believe.  It was clear that just picking the answer I preferred to be correct was dishonest and would lead me to fill my brain with nonsense.  It was clear that picking the answer that got me the best treatment was dishonest and would lead me to fill my brain with nonsense.

But there was more.  Even at age 4 we have heard enough about the world to infer that people in different parts of the world tend to believe the same things as people near them, but very different things from people elsewhere (in other "cultures").  Even average 4 year olds recognize the implication: the vast majority of humans simply accept whatever nonsense the people near them accept, and do not bother to learn the actual answers to questions.

So I had a choice.  I could choose to be dishonest, and fill my head with whatever nonsense the most humans around me supported, or whatever nonsense got me the best treatment.  Or I could choose to be honest.  The only way to actually implement "honest" seemed to be by first-hand observation, and by personal thought, reflection and inference.

Now, my point is this.  The pressure I felt to be dishonest absolutely did not come from the configuration of my genes, or some ancient tendency to prefer "authority" and "leadership".  ABSOLUTELY NOT.

The pressure to be dishonest came directly and exclusively from the nagging, yelling and threats against my independent thought and ideas by parents, teachers and other "authorities".  Not from a million years of evolution, but from those real, physical, nasty predators who attempted to dominate my life in every way they could (subtle, direct and aggressive).

Quite obviously, it is not the ancient past that destroys us, it is the predators in the here and now, who will nag us, yell at us, beat us, cage us, and kill us if we do not adopt their endless lies as "gospel".

If you read your own examples, you will see that your examples support my point of view, while your statements support a theory without evidence.

To attempt to avoid pain is a fundamental characteristic of animals.  Hell, even single cell organisms without nervous systems take actions to avoid external conditions and influences that tend to harm them.

Watch how many christians emerge from the woodwork in defense of their belief in god, in defense of their supreme leader. To them being lead is good, in fact the greatest thing the universe could bestow on a lowly human.

Yes, and why do you think people raised by christians tend to be christians, not random gods and religions?  Because what influenced them is not "evolution", but the real, physical individuals beings in the here and now who they put up with during their lives.

There is nothing ancient about this process, it is very current.

Which is why I could identify the situation I was in, and make a decision to be 100% honest with myself about all topics and issues.  I absolutely understood that I would be mistreated for holding divergent views, or even for "not being sure" about fundamental issues like "which was the correct god and religion and nation" (all being one form or another of "authority").

Hell, humans even get beat to death sometimes for supporting the "wrong/evil" sports teams!

When I decided at the age of 4 that "god" was complete nonsense (no reason to believe, and endless reasons to disbelieve), and that every religion is therefore fundamentally misguided, I literally believed I was probably the only human on earth who did not believe in the notion of "god".  In retrospect, that was much too large a leap, but everyone I had ever met certainly acted as if "god" existed just as surely as "earth".

Believe me, my neural net does not force me to believe "god exists".  Frankly, aren't there enough areas on the globe where the vast majority of humans do not believe in god to convince you that the structure of the brain cannot be responsible for the notion of "god"?

If we go back in history a few hundred or thousand years, most of the earth was "no mans land".  What I mean to point out here is this.  Without a doubt there were aggregates of humans who lived in the same area, probably because resources like water and food were easier to find (and later when man learned to be producers, "to grow").  And I have no doubt that some of the dynamics you mention tend to occur --- those humans who retain the modus-operandi of predator force others in their community to comply with their orders.  However, at any time, any individual or subset of individuals can just leave the community and set up their life in "no mans land" (making it "their land" in a manner of speaking).

This dynamic was, in fact, very common.  As long as "no mans lands" ("frontiers") have existed, many individuals would leave and establish independent lives without the arbitrary mandates of the predator class.

When man became a producer --- learned to create goods that would not have existed if not for their actions --- this dynamic became even more important.  In some ways, the power of production became more powerful than the power of predatory threat and destruction.

This competition is what spurred the predators to attempt to eliminate "no mans lands" ("frontiers").  The predators understood better than anyone that nobody benefits from them, for they produce nothing, while everyone benefits from producers, who drive the "cost" of all products down by driving the quantity of goods up, up, up and away - and dramatically so.

So the predators established the obscenity we have today.  No longer do we see a globe covered by little "towns" separated by frontiers where every individual is independent, and not subject to a tyrant.  The predators cannot stand this, because they understand full well that eventually everyone would abandon their "dens of slavery and tyranny" and move "out of town" into "no mans land" to be nearer to producers (and to adopt production as a way of lives themselves).

So the predators pretended to establish "states" and "provinces" and "nations" without any "no mans land" frontiers between them.  This was done to enslave the entirety of mankind.

Though there was conflict about this, the predators had a few huge advantages.  First and perhaps foremost, producers were busy working their butts off at production, while predators spent all their time organizing gangs of thugs to ride around the frontiers to threaten producers, and ultimately kill those who refused to comply.  By giving away a tiny percentage of what they stole from producers, the predators convinced a lot of weak-minded amoral scumbag humans to support their fictions and their tyranny.

The rest is history.

At every step the actions humans took were mostly due to the real, physical, individual humans (predators and thugs) who transgressed against them.  And efforts to withstand this abuse was also mostly due to the real, physical, individual humans (producers) near each other who organized or cooperated to resist the predators and thugs.

Nowhere was "genetics" responsible.

You talk about feedback loops.  You are certainly correct to identify feedback loops in human belief systems and behaviors.  However, those feedback loops wouldn't even exist, or function, if humans were disposed to their behavior by genetics.

Every human being is perfectly capable of observing with his own eyes, thinking with his own mind, drawing inferences on his own, and keeping his consciousness in coherent order.

However, humans are punished for adopting this behavior --- unless they become very proficient at avoiding people and/or conversations.  The only reason the vast majority of humans today are flaming dimwits is the abuse they suffer when they do not conform.  The past has nothing to do with this, and you can prove this quite easily if you find some family way out in the boonies somewhere that has isolated their kids from the external predator-dominated world, and allowed their kids to develop their consciousness independently.  What you will find is, kids do develop individualism and independent intellects if they are not abused when they attempt to.

The world would not collapse into chaos without leadership!  That is so completely absurd, I almost don't know where to start.  I suppose the reason so many people believe such nonsense is the fact they've never lived anywhere without predator domination, and they've suckered for the endless soundbite lies endlessly promoted by predators and parasites (their apologists).  The fact is exactly the opposite, and exceedingly so.

It is rather amazing that essentially every example you give completely refutes your theories!  Take marriage and kids for instance.  You note that many people won't consider having kids until they are married.  True enough --- because the predators-DBA-government and/or predators-DBA-church who dominate their part of the world so dictate, and punish other behavior in various ways.  But you can find places where this dictate does not exist, and what do you find?  You find that this supposed "genetic instinct" doesn't exist.  Which proves yet again that these supposed "genetic instincts" are not genetic, and they are not instincts.  They are in fact, direct, in-your-face, real-time influences from the individuals who dominate their little part of the world at the time they are alive.  No genetics.  No instinct.

You say "nothing has changed", so why the change in behavior!  Now you're onto something!  And what you are onto is the amazing power of fiction on minds that do not bother to distinguish real from fiction.  Human behavior is controlled by the mental-units in the consciousness of each individual.  If the consciousness of a kid contains the FICTIONAL mental unit called "SantaClaus", that kid will get up at some insanely early hour on December 25th, at a time of day you normally couldn't pry them out of bed, and start running and jumping around the house like chimps!  In contrast, kids lacking this fictional mental unit will behave the same on the morning of December 25th as any other day.

This is the fact predators understand more clearly than any other.

The predators quite clearly understand they can completely control individuals by inserting bogus mental-units into the consciousness of millions or billions of people, and faking them into taking those mental-units seriously (as real, not fiction).  Their "greatest" achievements (as in "most destructive") are the spread of those bogus mental-units called "government", "nation", "state", "province", "kingdom"... plus all the bogus derivative mental-units like government "departments", "officials", "regulations", "statutes", "acts", "laws", etc.

ALL of those mental units are utterly and completely FICTION.

When some predator, or group of predators, sits around a table, drafts some documents, and sign at the bottom, nothing real pops into existence.  Whatever names and assertions they invent and insert into their documents, they have done nothing more than spread ink on paper.  That is all.  No "government" popped into existence.  Anyone who has a brain that functions properly understands that "government" and "nation" and those other bogus mental-units are inherently fictions, and cannot be otherwise.

Unfortunately, humans today are literally dumber than rocks.  Not kidding.  Believe me, no rock would ever believe that 30 humans signing a piece of paper 250 years ago somehow obligates millions of individuals across centuries to whatever some bunch of predatory humans dictate.  I mean really folks!

Just think about how completely kookoo that idea is, in so many ways!  Everyone can see that nothing changed when those individuals signed the piece of paper --- nothing popped into existence, "government" or otherwise.  All that happened is those individuals reconfigured their brains slightly to create a new mental-unit that refers to... nothing (since nothing popped into existence).  They might just as well have created "SantaClaus" or "DaffyDuck" or "ToothFairy" or "SugarHighBakery" or "IntergalacticEmpireOfDweebs".  It doesn't matter what they wrote on paper, nothing popped into existence.  And no actions taken later change that fact.  For example, if they stick around after the signing, and construct a building, and put a sign on that building that says "SugarHighBakery" or "IntergalacticEmpireOfDweebs", what they have created is... a building.  If you think otherwise, you are literally insane.  Which means, of course, that almost all humans are indeed fundamentally and radically insane.

Never mind that 50,000 groups of 30 people can sit around 50,000 tables and craft 50,000 documents that claim to create "nations" and "states".  Never mind that these 50,000 groups of people can draw different lines on maps of the continents (land masses) to pretend to identify the boundaries of their fictional "nations".  Never mind that they all contradict each other, and are all inherently nothing more than words on papers and fictions in brains.  Yes, never mind all that and you are just like the other 7-billion lunatic chimps that populate earth.

As for all those "young males"... bring them on!  They may indeed be a bit faster-moving than other predators, but I believe you'll find that the bullets I and other intransigent individualists shoot at them will eliminate them just as surely as everyone else.

What makes it possible for those "young males" to succeed is FICTION --- not muscles, not fast reaction times developed on video games, not excess energy.  What makes those "young males" (like Nancy Pelosi, I suppose) so successful is everyone who is suckered into accepting pure, unadulterated nonsense fiction as real.  That is all.

Bottom line?

Sanity is seeing what's in front of your face, and not seeing what isn't.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 00:28 | 4118534 layman_please
layman_please's picture

i'm glad i found this post. great analysis. i only have a meager +1 to show appreciation for something that will be forever lost in the halls of zerohedge.

 

just a thought, it looks like the producers were short lived dead end subspecies, who are now more known as slaves. same as it ever was

 

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:17 | 4107365 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

.

Just had to log in to upvote you, Ann. Keep it coming.

.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:29 | 4107393 khakuda
khakuda's picture

This guy is brilliant and eloquent.  I don't think it could have been stated better and would love to see the entire letter if someone could post a link.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 22:58 | 4107442 devo
devo's picture

When this collapses, they're just going to ask IMF for a bailout. That will buy another 15-20 years.

We're probably looking at 20-25 years until the real collapse.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:18 | 4107491 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

The IMF would do to America what it did to Greece, further deteriorating an economic nightmare. Got 401ks? Kiss'em goodbye. Make over $100k/yr? Universal 20% tax. Need gas for your car? $10/gallon.

 Personally I am one in the camp of less than 5 years if not in 2015.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:59 | 4107579 devo
devo's picture

Investors still have full faith in the FED. It's precarious, but they're well-indoctrinated not to fight the FED. So they will submit and continue to invest. There is more and more questioning of late (every Larry Kudlow, shill extrodinare, was questioning policy today). Still, I think it goes on another 5 years. In that time the FED will bump up QE~ to 100bil, 150bil, etc. There will be rhetoric that the recovery is right around the corner (aren't we due for a new recession?). When it fails through interest rate hikes or hyperinflation, the IMF will step in. I don't think they'll do what they did to Greece since they'll be stealing small amounts from a larger base of people (i.e. 188 countries). We're already hearing that SDRs will replace the dollar, so an IMF bailout makes sense--nobody but the entire world can bail out the FED at this point.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:15 | 4107608 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

Nobody can bailout the FED at this point- agreed, but I respectfully suggest the plan is not to save the US but to siphon off as much (current USD$) real assets as they can before they strategically collapse the system, giving it a few years and a few million die-offs of the 'useless eaters', before they bring the white horse in and institute a global SDR...which those not yet eaten by their neighbors or dead from Fukushima & Gulf of Mexico poisens will rejoice, although those remaining will be a fraction of the former glory Apple 5 days.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:27 | 4107631 devo
devo's picture

I agree they're not trying to save the US and want the assets, but I do believe the FED will want full purchasing power reimbursement. So, when their bonds are worth half or a fourth, who picks up that tab? Via charter, the US tax payer is on the hook for any FED loss. And they're broke. That's why I think they move to an SDR at that point and rig the convertibility rate to regain loses via purchasing power of this new currency. That way, the world absords the FED loss rather than the few remaining US taxpayers and/or future citizens who will be broke. But, who the fuck knows, seriously. I just thought this theory up today while wondering who bails out the fed, so I haven't fleshed it out.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 23:50 | 4107554 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Your children will.  <- Please watch

 

We have been warning you for years. Some of these imbeciles think they’ll land on the grand universal government stage. They’re merely useful idiots reaching for something that will never materialize. The power & seat are a carrot to encourage more incentive to be promised false hopes.   

 

It’s always fun to watch those who wanted to break the ceiling glass over gender. How does it feel to be used after you completed your objective?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 00:31 | 4107643 QE49er
QE49er's picture

The Criminal Elite will then use war as an excuse to increase QE just when they can no longer fool the public with their tapering bs.  Donald Rumsfeld 9/10/2001.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 02:26 | 4107770 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Dude. The FED has infinite ability to buy everything in the world and give it to themselves. What don't you understand. The only thing to question is why they are taking so long to do it. But I'm pretty sure they already own most of everything now and they need time to take the pension funds and the private money like yours you schmuck.

Good luck for not joining the revolution sooner.

 

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