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FB Reports 18% Increase In Monthly Active Users To 1.2 Billion: Stock Explodes
UPDATE: It was all going so well until the conference call explained things are not quite as rosy as all the pitchmen on TV suggested...
Surprised why FB stock is soaring higher by 15% after hours on results that were a beat but nothing all that spectacular, with $2.02 billion in revenues ($1.91 billion expected), and EPS of $0.25 ($0.19 expected)? Because according to the company, it will soon need to colonize a new planet as it will promptly run out of real, bot-based, imaginary and potential users on planet earth following a ridiculous 25% increase Y/Y in daily active users to 728 million, and a mindblowing 18% increase in Monthly Active Users to 1.19 billion (however look at the charts below to see just where the bulk of the growth comes from).
Putting Facebook's numbers in perspective: it has 199 million Monthly Active Users in the US, where the average revenue per user is highest. This is 44 million more than the entire labor force, and 63 million more than the number of employed people in the US.
The statistics, as reported by the company:
- Daily active users (DAUs) were 728 million on average for September 2013, an increase of 25% year-over-year.
- Monthly active users (MAUs) were 1.19 billion as of September 30, 2013, an increase of 18% year-over-year.
- Mobile MAUs were 874 million as of September 30, 2013, an increase of 45% year-over-year. Mobile DAUs were 507 million on average for September 2013.
Looking at the financials, of the $2 billion in revenue 90% was from advertising:
- Revenue – Revenue for the third quarter of 2013 totaled $2.02 billion, an increase of 60%, compared with $1.26 billion in the third quarter of 2012.
- Revenue from advertising was $1.80 billion, a 66% increase from the same quarter last year.
- Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 49% of advertising revenue for the third quarter of 2013.
- Payments and other fees revenue was $218 million for the third quarter of 2013.
... which means that between FaceBook and Twitter, the world's (but mostly America's) corporations better have infinite+1 advertising budgets. That, or they better not grasp just what the conversion on every incremental eyeball or click truly is.
Whatever the underlying story, FB has hit escape velocity after hours as any incremental recent shorts just got sledgehammered.
Still, before rushing to buy the stock at its all time high, perhaps one should ask if the organic user growth in the US, where the bulk of ad revenue is focused has peaked:
Daily Active Users rose by just 2 million in the US.
While Monthly Active Users rose by the smallest quarterly amount in the past 2 years: just 1 million.
And here is why FB users in Asia and Africa are not the same as American users: ARPU.
Full investor deck below (pdf):
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Since ESPN went to facebot based commenting, I can see why the increase. /s
How does facebook monetize its user base ? I am not on facebook, so I don't know what I am missing out.
I'm sure they're all valid accounts and not multiple personalities. UH huh. Mossad. DHS. Air Force....
edit: Oh and I'm only joking when I say I'd like to break Zuck's fucking face into multiple pieces. HAHA!
its called counting Instagram and Facebook users as uniques. Bullshit.
Of course, no better way to go long NSA.
It's just the same users creating multiple accounts; one for school/work, one for family, one for real friends, and so on.
5,000 P/E or Bust !!!
Yeah, it's worth that.
Ads to food stamp recipients for section 8 housing?
Heathcare.gov website promos?
had to login to agree
+1
delete
US Gold Treason
http://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com.au/2013/10/us-gold-treason.html
Need alot of new accounts to comment and put a positive spin on the news. The punchbowl is overflowing with turds and people are starting to notice.
They call their users DAU?! DAU in German means: Duemmster anzunehmender User (dumbest to expect user). A design rule for software can be to make it DAU-safe.
Little Obama Stasi shit Zuckerberg is pushing for amnesty so he can get more users in the USA. The funny thing is it gapped up to $57 afterhours and sunk back to $49 where it closed. Total manipulation by NSA/PRism/algo/HFT.
BTFD.
They dont - advertisers just havent realized it yet. Though I have to give them credit they are really riding the accidental "ad-clicks" hard...
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Join the Silver Pledge - an effort to change the system by having investors join up and buy physical silver - together we can break this market and take back our government.
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Like counting Obama voters.
Like Obarecrack counting US States (57?)...
People who add themselves to some anonymous 'Silver Pledge' database deserve whatever happens to them as a result.
I like how he thinks doing stupid shit is better than NOT doing stupid shit (a.ka. "doing nothing"). Ala the ole "Don't you dare criticize my actions, as it's my intentions that matter. And since you obviously don't care enough to fake it like I do, well fuck you, then!"
If anything, he's increasing the demand for more Chinese counterfeits.
8 billion is the most users = earth
Find a new planet!
Wrong synergize. The banks control the money and the banks control the governments.
OMG, I KNOW! They suck a few team's and player's dicks and bash everyone else. I used to love ESPN but now it's just garbage.
On a side note, ESPN is useful for some things... http://imgur.com/gallery/3aTtw7o
TV is total garbage. I stopped watching it years ago. EPSN is so ******g liberal.
"Since ESPN went to facebot based commenting, I can see why the increase. /s"
Actually, you brought up a very good point that I hadn't considered that would really drive up FB user stats, but only in numbers, not profits. A local newspaper went to FB-only commenting and since I don't have a FB account and never intend to, I sent them an email asking why they didn't give commenters a choice of sign-ins. No reply.
So, if someone makes a single comment somewhere that requires them to log into a FB account, they're a daily, weekly, monthly, or whatever "user" artificially inflating FB user numbers. What BS.
Yep, FB spends their days figuring out how to game the system- like the rest of us would, if we were running it.
Ya, my FB time is way up, thanks to Candy Crush- but since the only ads I click are on ZeroHedge, FB will never see a dime because of me-
Tho I'm sure that I have immense value on their balance sheet, LOL!
Farcebook are also fudging the numbers.
108 million people on entitlements compared to 80 million full time working in the private sector and 22 million Govt. workers. Pro Entitlement voters 62% vs 38% private sector. The progressives will win more and more elections pushing for more free stuff with more Govt workers. Democracy will fail as the majority wants free stuff. Facebook is free.
I feel special. I am the only American adult without an account on FB.
nope.....
nope...
but i do spend time on their servers, exploring ports and such...
there's got to be a bot port and I'm going to find it.
Over.
You will be assimilated. Register now and create a profile. Resistance is futile. You will comply.
How long before the market is permitted to recognize social media as another bubble?
Will you be my friend?
i dont have one.
That shit is mind numbing.
My cat Declan is one of the new members
Ha. Last week I had to retire another pair of sneakers that I got from work(Walmart), it rained and the sole came off again. Long story for those who do not know.
Anyhow my sister gave my sneakers a FB page to complain about Walmart adhesives and rain.
Over.
If that is true, I just lost all respect for your cat Declan.
My cat Ally will soon be sending Declan a furry friend request.
Land of the Oligarchs and the T Rex's.
It takes an earthquake to shake Jurassic Park!
The new users are likely internal corporate groups (e.g. "Samson Products Inc. Operations group page") or the like, who haven't yet realized that FB has no real value add. This is ironic, because the shiny happy people setting up these shiny happy corporate pages don't really add value either.
It's because of ZH getting endorsed.
DO it. The NSA already knows who you are.
And I thought there was only one born every minute.
Yeah, well I guess that's been leveraged also...
An increase in FB users? That large an increase? After all the recent NSA revelations? Sorry...I'm gonna have to call bullshit on that one.
Luckily for FB though, this market handsomely rewards fraud, lies and bullshit.
NSA bots are people too, dontcha know... and now they're counted as such.
We call it a safe harbor ponzi. The accounts are real but if scrutinized you'll see origination IP's mostly came from face.com or face owned IP's
If you don't know this relationship you should.
**edit [Warning as of 1700 hours Eastern, do not search for(google only), or go to face.com, looks like I hit a nerve]
**edit2 18:34 EST [oh lookie lookie a new face.com emerges, lol] u guys r awesomes. It's so Napster, no fear though, the chosen ones can never be prosecuted for TM infringement.
Over.
Face.com is a facial recognition technology that analyzes and identifies people in photos. Released as an application for Facebook in 2009, Face.com’s Friend Finder can search through your friend’s photos and identify you in those that are untagged.
Though Face.com’s technology has huge potential as a security application, the company is currently focusing on the consumer market where it is enabling millions of users to identify and tag or untag themselves in photos on Facebook. As of April 2009, Facebook had more than 15 billion photos and as of June 2010 has over two billion photos added to it monthly. In May 2010, Face.com announced that since launching in April 2009 it has tagged seven billion photos and identified 52 million faces. It also made its API available to developers.
The company was founded in 2007 by Gil Hirsch, Yaniv Taigman, Eden Shochat and Moti Shniberg.
Back of the envelope math... (because this is a message board and I can do that)
World Population: 7bn
Chinese Population (no access to FB): 1.4bn
= 5.8bn left
% of world population under 15 or over 65: ~66%
Realistic Penetration Rate for over 65 and under 15: 25%
= 4.3bn addressable market
% of world population with internet access: 35%
= Addressable market of 1.5bn
That would mean that of the addressable market of all human beings, 80% not only use Facebook, but go on there monthly.
The math is right but i mislabeled the % of world population rate outside of the 15-65 demo (66% inside the demo, 33% outside)
Are you saying that all my Muslim brothers do not go to Fagbook to post their life stories? What about my Asian brothers? Surely my Israeli brothers, no?
Don't they want glorious success and book deals?
Over.
Alphabet agency probably made it compulsory for all employees to have a Facebook page, you know, to prove your loyalty to the Empire ...
Expect future reports of Al CIAda tracking alphabet employees through their FB posts ...
Makes you wonder how many of those accounts are fake.
It must be all the new Fakebook friends that the NSA and ACA have purchaced recently, to peddle their commie agendas.
More unemployed Americans with no money to spend are now on Facebook. Well, that should be good for "business".
NSA pumping up the numbers, i.e. channel stuffing, to keep a primary contributor of "Metadata" flowing while tweens and teens flock to Instagram as the latest flash in the pan social media phenomena. BTW, where does "F" revenue even come from? Advertising?
People in Bermuda have opened Facebook accounts.
Facebook has been cutting off users and demanding government ID to get back in. People are saying, f- that, I'll just create a dozen new FB accounts with fake names.
I'll mark this as a 'win' for NSA/CIA/DEA/FBI....
Am I the first person to notice this?
http://imageshack.us/a/img209/2225/w2pi.jpg
Hey guys, everybody do this:
1) Buy FB
2) Make a fake account every so often
3) Click on ads
4) Profit
It will work with Twitter as well.
Does anyone actually know someone who has used Facebook more over the last 12 months? At least 40% of the people I know on there almost never go on and 100% use Facebook less frequently than they did over 24 months ago. This is silly.
My 15 year old daughter recently shit-canned the account that she had for two years. Thinks it's stupid.
A market cap of $120B on revenues of $1-2B....and a PE of 221.
Huh?
Full Retard is the new Bullish.
After-hours trading added another $12 billion...
Peak corporatism.
Timtom: "Does anyone actually know someone who has used Facebook more over the last 12 months?"
Well, a lot of people in Asia actually use FB as their sole web site for their businesses. Go figure.
I guess the NSA had a bunch of new hires?
Bernanke: Buy, buy, buy! Gimme some VoM, till the GDP catches some fire, bitchez!
This shit show will keep going. The question is which are the next MOMO driven Darling stocks with P/E multiples in the hundreds and stock price gone up 1000% over a year.
How about LOCK? Is that the next PCLN? I won't get in to any stocks unless 1000% are on the table. Fuck everything else. FB won't get there. Too much hype, and Twitter is drowning in suits before even IPOd. Gotta be some high tech darling crap under the radar. The algos will not stop working.
Wonder why certain stocks get this type of pump? FOO = friends of O.
Just like Mussolini or Hitler. The companies who are friends of the regime are supported with HFT, Fed money pumping, algo govt trading with Fed money, etc.
unless one has a commercial reason for having a FB account I just don't get why any individual would choose to expose themselves in this manner.
I guess it's like fighting in a war: you gotta be young and dumb.
Population of the US (314mm) + Canada (35mm) = 349mm. So, more than 40% of North America uses facebook on a DAILY basis. WTF? Shameful.
Just under half the folks in N.America every day?
Guess you switch on your cellphone and it goes live, or maybe its just the NSA opening your account for you.
This is such an obvious fraud I'm surprised they had the balls to release it.
It would appear that the momo algos are suffering from priapism.
Orwell had it right.
Understand the EVIL.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOE1HFEL8XA
No FB accounts in our house either. Hmm...
fb well off its highs now. this fucking piece of shit will hopefully get to fair value soon, 0.
New members all NSA?
... 15% round trip in minutes. Hows that for "orderly markets"? Call in the Federallies.
Peak Facebook
I've been on Facebook for 6 years and I have clicked on 1 ad.
Ran a small online business a while ago and bought some ad space on Facebook. The Click Trough Rate was horrendous compared with similar ads on Google.
If I look in my newsfeed it's basically pictures of people's kids, pictures of what people had for lunch and status updates on how fantastic everyone's lives are.
P/E of 221....
I experimented with Google Adsense and Yahoo (whatever it was called back then) years ago. Fucking waste of money as an advertising/sales generator.
I read an article somewhere in the past year that said good old email spamming was still the most efficient way of pumping piss. I've actually used very targeted email advertising for a buddy about 3-4 years ago and it actually did pay off pretty good for him with orders. But I spent the time researching and generating the email list of potential customers. But even that's not worth doing these days with all the spam filters, etc and sending from a legit domain name/business.
Fagbook.
Stolen source code.
When SHTF I hope to see the whites of this fuckers eyes.
If you have the Facebook app on your phone, it automatically runs and logs you in. So even if you don't look at Facebook at all, you count as an active daily user.
Virtually every phone sold today comes preinstalled FB garbage, including istagram bullshit. The camera applications have built in auto-upload to instragram. So once again every photo taken will count as an active login.
Mobile ads are inserted into the news feed, which nobody looks at. Facebook advertising is worthless.
I only check Facebook for business. My wife deleted her account. She said all Facebook is anymore is gossip and complaints.
Thankfully I have a cheap prepaid flip phone. I hope to find another cheap prepaid flip phone to replace it when it has to go due to being worn out.
No way am I using twitter, facebook, etc,. from the phone & hopefully it won't try to connect to be FB behind my back since I don't have an account.
Only up $0.98 now. Guess someone outside of ZH must have realized that kind of user growth is impossible and likely fraud
Toilets have nearly 300 million active daily users in the USA. Some have multiple logins daily.
Just think of the revenue potential of toilets.com.
When you monetize taking a shit, the P/E potential is infinite.
that's some smart shit doode, I just bought a "smart toilet"
Best analogy I've read in ages.
ads in restrooms... how in the fuck?
Why hasn't anyone done this yet? I'd rent out my bathroom for bennybux if I had to watch advertisement drivel everytime I took a shit.
Funny how they couch "NSA police state retrieval fees" as ad revenue.
"it has 199 million Monthly Active Users in the US, where the average revenue per user is highest. This is 44 million more than the entire labor force, and 63 million more than the number of employed people in the US."
so then half the population of USA are active facebook users ... sounds bogus.
"Facebook Inc. is testing technology that would greatly expand the scope of data that it collects about its users, the head of the company’s analytics group said Tuesday."
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/10/30/facebook-considers-vast-increase-...
This is no different than the same old "pump and dump" from 1999.
Try to really use it to market a business. It's a joke.
FB is a hangout for teenagers and useless eaters with no money who eventually wise up out of boredom and leave.
This is good ole days stuff, sans the HFTs, marked up distribution then sell it hard. Suck in the small fry and lame and fleece them. FB is a block trade fleece machine that banks/firms have overvalued.
Unless Facebook creates a premium (paid) service, otherwise it's behemoth of pointlessness.
Wall Street flush...suckers
653 EST - FB down 0.41
faceplant...again
Once you install an advertisement blocker you will never see ads again. They earn no revenue from anybody I know. General public and pension funds never question this revenue model which is voided on every computer I own.
IMO there is still plenty they can do to monetize the user base even without ads. Eventually they sell a ramped up version and eventually charge everyone to use it. If they were smart they would do it as an add on to a phone plan via Verizon etc....sort of like a data plan. The standard plan will be like tv cable standard: local channels and a few throw ins but everyone else would be in the up-tier. And what users would even notice a $1-$3 charge per month on phone bill? I could be wrong but that's the way I see it going.
Personally I was on about a month and got rid of it but most everyone I run into has at least one family member on it.
I wouldn't pay it or use it. Having seen how people don't clue in to data plans & can't get rid of items on billing, however, I can see how this would work:
#1 couple the data feature & payout to FB (or anyone) to a larger data-plan bundle
This means that customers pay for a larger feature & part of that payment goes to FB (or whoever)
#2 add the feature by default for specific phones & claim the customer can choose another phone if they don't want the plan
#3 remove the phones that can't / don't use the "required" data-plan
#4 bill the customer & ruin their credit if they won't pay, reaming them the hardest who are on contracts so they get termination fees if they try to back out early
Ta-da!
If Facebook charged a monthly fee of even $1, how many millions people would look for an alternative?
If they COULD charge an access fee, they WOULD.
The emperor has no clothes.
Side note, I love that past interview of Zuckerberg sweating.
We have an algo dubbed the Facebook Stock Predictor which called the top last week:
http://intellikon.com/facebook/
and listening to the conference call tonight we have to say we're quite comfortable with the current position.
I joined FB under a fake name to check out old girlfriends. (If they dumped me because I wouldn't marry them is it really considered a dump?) Now I'm done, no longer need FB and am tired of the weird postings.
"This is 44 million more than the entire labor force, and 63 million more than the number of employed people in the US."
Sounds legit!
That updated chart is classic buttfukkery.
I'm glad to see that Durden has enough brains to no longer call it 'Faceplant'. Goodness, some actually made money on the trade. It's a relief we don't have to chum the sheeple (their term) with that wrong headedness today.
We lose money with each new user, BUT we make it up on volume!!
I've got it!!
Merge Facebook to Amazon, call it FamazonBook and IPO it for $2000/share!
I notice that some small and sole traders use FB like a kind of website. Its easy to deploy without IT skills. If I want to see a one off restaurant menu they have it on a FB page. I haven't found any use at all for Twitter though....
Twitter's much more useful.
You can easily find things by related followers or by hashtags (#topic).
Also many reporters, bloggers, etc., report immediately on twitter & mention OTHER reporters or reports that are related.
Being forced to 140 characters is great:
it means those who are relevant cram tons of tags & related people in.
Those who are no good at communicating TO THE POINT fail to do so & can be easily ignored.
Also since there's a built in twitimg photo URL it means sharing a menu, album cover, breaking riots, etc., is easily reported.
Typically I follow things there like wearechange , copblock, goldmoneynews (james turk), GATA has one (not very active), obviously Zerohedge has one, as does @Williambanzai7 and @CalConfidence I believe is Calibrated Confidence, another ZH contributor.
@nanexllc is Eric Hunsader (Nanex)