FB Reports 18% Increase In Monthly Active Users To 1.2 Billion: Stock Explodes
UPDATE: It was all going so well until the conference call explained things are not quite as rosy as all the pitchmen on TV suggested...
Surprised why FB stock is soaring higher by 15% after hours on results that were a beat but nothing all that spectacular, with $2.02 billion in revenues ($1.91 billion expected), and EPS of $0.25 ($0.19 expected)? Because according to the company, it will soon need to colonize a new planet as it will promptly run out of real, bot-based, imaginary and potential users on planet earth following a ridiculous 25% increase Y/Y in daily active users to 728 million, and a mindblowing 18% increase in Monthly Active Users to 1.19 billion (however look at the charts below to see just where the bulk of the growth comes from).
Putting Facebook's numbers in perspective: it has 199 million Monthly Active Users in the US, where the average revenue per user is highest. This is 44 million more than the entire labor force, and 63 million more than the number of employed people in the US.
The statistics, as reported by the company:
- Daily active users (DAUs) were 728 million on average for September 2013, an increase of 25% year-over-year.
- Monthly active users (MAUs) were 1.19 billion as of September 30, 2013, an increase of 18% year-over-year.
- Mobile MAUs were 874 million as of September 30, 2013, an increase of 45% year-over-year. Mobile DAUs were 507 million on average for September 2013.
Looking at the financials, of the $2 billion in revenue 90% was from advertising:
- Revenue – Revenue for the third quarter of 2013 totaled $2.02 billion, an increase of 60%, compared with $1.26 billion in the third quarter of 2012.
- Revenue from advertising was $1.80 billion, a 66% increase from the same quarter last year.
- Mobile advertising revenue represented approximately 49% of advertising revenue for the third quarter of 2013.
- Payments and other fees revenue was $218 million for the third quarter of 2013.
... which means that between FaceBook and Twitter, the world's (but mostly America's) corporations better have infinite+1 advertising budgets. That, or they better not grasp just what the conversion on every incremental eyeball or click truly is.
Whatever the underlying story, FB has hit escape velocity after hours as any incremental recent shorts just got sledgehammered.
Still, before rushing to buy the stock at its all time high, perhaps one should ask if the organic user growth in the US, where the bulk of ad revenue is focused has peaked:
Daily Active Users rose by just 2 million in the US.
While Monthly Active Users rose by the smallest quarterly amount in the past 2 years: just 1 million.
And here is why FB users in Asia and Africa are not the same as American users: ARPU.
Full investor deck below (pdf):
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