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It's Official: The US Is The 'Dirtiest' Dirty Shirt In Global Macro
Despite what the talking heads continue to spew to justify all-time high stock market valuations, the 'fact' is that year-to-date, US Macro data has now performed the worst of all global macro indices. Furthermore, the pace of collapse in the last 4-weeks is the fastest in 8 months. What is perhaps most ironic is that US Macro peaked at the last FOMC meeting (when the Fed decided that data was not supportive enough to Taper) so any surprise today simply supports the fact that the Fed's decision is anything but fundamentally driven (and instead perhaps driven by the four 'bad' reasons for a tapering.)
US Macro has fallen to the worst performer year-to-date... (andnote when the un-Taper decision was made - at 'peak' macro)...

Collapsing at its fastest in 8 months (and note that each successive peak since the recession has seen lower highs - as the wealth effect or stimulus effects have become less and less)...

So any surprise decision or wording change today can only be driven by one (or more) of the following four ;bad' reasons:
1. Deficits are shrinking and the Fed has less and less room for its buying
2. Under the surface, various non-mainstream technicalities are breaking in the markets due to the size of the Fed's position (repo markets, bond specialness, and fail-to-delivers among them).
3. Sentiment is critical; if the public starts to believe (as Kyle Bass warned) that the central bank is monetizing the government's debt (which it clearly is), then the game accelerates away from them very quickly - and we suspect they fear we are close to that tipping point
4. The rest of the world is not happy. As Canada just noted, the US monetary policy will be discussed at the G-20
Simply put, they are cornered and need to Taper; no matter how bad the macro data and we are sure 'trends' and longer-term horizons will come to their rescue in defending the prime dealers' clear agreement that it is time...
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Can we make the ring around the collar out of hemp?
So we are exceptional. What's new ?
Almost makes me not want to go back. It is Spring here in Lima... And our new shipment of bearings is moving...
Fed’s announcement – “We’ve decided to commence the inverse tapering until the un-employment rate reaches “-7%” (minus seven percent) and GDP touches 743% year-over-month.”
Looney
Am I the only one unclear as to why this piece is tagged "Kyle Bass"? Color me dissapointed.
Quit teasing us Tyler!
Bullish
We are Going Forward, Comrades!
In reverse.
The obvious answer is to throw more money at it. At least that's what our nobel lauriates tell us to do, and we know they are never wrong.
No, throw paper and ink at it... 1 ounce gold coins hurt when they hit!
Haha good point.
It's getting to the point where they couldn't print it all even if they wanted to.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/oct/28/mainstream-economic...
Get ready to buy cheap gold...
The last time I took delivery of physical it was less than $300 and ounce. Wake me when I can do that again.
But, if/when paper gold gets down to $300, will there be any physical left? I would doubt it...
EDIT:
I greened you, mate, because I respect your comments.
And what percentage of the dollar buying power has been lost to inflation since then? Get with the program. Anyone willing to sell you physical gold for "benny buks" should be taken up on the offer forthwith!
You clearly don't understand the role of gold in my portfolio. I am not a gold trader. Play with all the paper you want. Gold is my savings, period. In fact, some of my savings were my grandfather's, but my family has done well over the years. I guess it's a simple question of how long you want you and yours to survive? Not that there hasn't been some great trades in the paper gold "market", there certainly has.
My favorite example of what you just said:
If your Great Aunt Matilda left you $10,000 cash in 1952 or $10,000 worth of gold in 1952, which one would you rather have today?
Sure, she could have purchased stocks or something that would have yielded a higher NPV today, but somebody would have had to look over that portfolio along the way, mistakes could have been made, etc. Gold, not so. Your purchasing power would have been preserved over that time with no effort whatsoever.
Exactly. Especially in a world of exponentially increasing liabilities and paper promises. In 2001 we changed our investing mantra from focusing on the return on capital to a return of capital. All profits have been flowing right back into our business, keep our very real assets (land/machinery) updated and the business debt-free.
?
Still trillions in worthless toxic RMBS to buy from TBTF at par.
Told ya so.
SHORT THE FED
Shouldn't the "R" be an "O"?
Anyone know when the US fascist banker status quo crew is scheduled to...finally...deliver its concession speech? Would really like to get on with my life already.
Many of (or possibly all of) these G20 nations have been propped up by this same monetary policy they want "to discuss".
Everybody's dirt is on our shirt
Everybody's dirty talk is on our tape
The Central Bank induced bubble has finally gone mainstream in Portugal.
Hold cash and get them hard assets ... it's a comin' boys, girls and trannies.
The US is the dirtiest shirt in global macro?
Is it fuck. Not by a long shot. The fucking den of inequity known as the UK is. All you lot are guilty of is not hoovering the bedroom before you go to work, or making the bed for that matter.
The criminaly insane, in-bred retards who thieve, steal, peodophile, drug run and other assorted shit who run this country make you lot look like pikers.
And all on the fucking publics coin. We must, indeed have to be the dirtiest shirt in a box full of shit.
:-) Smile fuckers, you have so much to learn......
And I always heard from the locals that Italy, France and even Germany were filthy.
Bearings always have a lot to learn as they don´t get out of their wheels often. *Sigh* And when they do, it is at the end of their lives...
Zerohedge "boating accident" meme goes mainstream:
http://nypost.com/2013/10/29/man-throws-gold-in-dumpster-so-his-ex-wife-couldnt-have-it/
Convert all your fiat based paper assets to gold and then (opps!) lose it. Works for me.
Just how dirty is our shirt? Are there units of dirtyness or just Absolute Units?
I need to pray.
We must borrow more money,
To stimuate demand,
So that jobs are created,
And prosperity ensues,
Then we pay off our loans.
Forever and ever in his holy bearded name, Amen.
hahahah ... all that QE and this is the outcome.
Mr derbanke your thesis is complete horseshit.
And where's Krugman? ... writing an OP-ED about how they should have thrown the kitchen sink at it?
MORONS
When radical stimulus metamorphoses into radical austerity.
I'm not trying to be a troll, I'm truly wondering if the massive inflation will not materialize at the expense of the old and diseased? If the tyrants that be start rationing health care (ACA) and start cutting entitlements to retired (pensions) then it would seem the $$$ that is being printed and diverted into bond buying will be off set. Ultimately it will go to the rich who will use it as lube to jack off to their golden toilets instead of the normal Channels of velocity. Just throwing out there.
NO ONE knows how these debacles are going to play out... Plan ahead and diversify as much as possible.
Like the info in this graph.......where can i find the data on this?
They can never stop tapering. Peter Schiff has said this many times, no?
"Simply put, they are cornered and need to Taper; no matter how bad the macro data and we are sure 'trends' and longer-term horizons will come to their rescue in defending the prime dealers' clear agreement that it is time..."
Assuming that the Fed once believed QE was a temporary measure until the US economy gained traction, I would like to know specifically what industries they believed would create millions of new good-paying jobs in the US. I would hope they were not banking upon the creation of low-wage jobs to get the economic motor running. It hardly seems promising to see the creation of new positions for waitresses and bartenders and barbacks etc. without a full complement of new white-collar jobs and manufacturing jobs and construction jobs etc. in the private sector.