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Understanding Europe's Delusion, Dilemma, And Endgame In Under 9 Minutes
If one watches (or reads) any of the mainstream media, it might seem 'obvious' that Europe is doing well; it's recovering; and the crisis is over (almost over..). However, as Punk Economic's David McWilliams explains in this excellent overview of the European delusion and Merkel's dilemma, there is a "wedge" of unreality between the so-called "markets" and the reality of economic progress. From playing with Germany's money to moar bailouts, and from Merkel's enabling of Draghi's excess to the reality that nothing has changed across the European region, in under 9 minutes, McWilliams brief tour-de-force is a must-watch before you 'chase' more performance with the herd. McWilliams concludes, however, with a darker edge of the inevitable endgame of a "slow trudge" to federalization (and loss of sovereignty) that will likely see Nigel Farage (and many others) apoplectic.
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When complex systems collapse, they collapse down to the highest level of complexity, which is inherently stable under the prevailing conditions.
What level will that be?
I'm thinking of the worlds's biggest house of cards and the slightest of bumps to the table on which it sits.
But the cards fall to the highest point of stability which is usually the point that simplicity meets complexity.
Over.
Entropy...
#FTW!
summary statement:
This video proposes a new anthem for the European Union.
Actually entropy is all about chaos, not complexity.
That said, you are right and the first poster was wrong: complex systems do not decay to higher complexity, they decay to higher chaos.
Chaos is hard to understand not because it's complex but rather because it has very little or no structure: the actions of each entity are near independent of the actions of other entities and thus more random, so the whole is unpredictable and hard to understand.
This difficulty to understand chaos is something which some people confuse with complexity.
Please reread what I wrote. You misread it.
Complex systems do decay to lower levels of complexity, but the highest of those lower levels, which is inherently stable.
If a system is decaying from more complex to less complex, then by definition the first stop you do is at the highest complexity level which is stable.
That said, there is such a thing as metastability, which is a point which is only stable in the absence of disturbances (an example is how the exact top of a hill is metastable for a sphere).
Thus it's quite possible that on its way towards chaos a system might temporarilly stop at a higher complexity level only to continue downwards later on.
That level will be: a slobbering French dog!
For a metaphorical answer to your question, take a look at this little video, Newsboy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wvcGM6maGGk
Exploding iceberg in Antarctica!
Bit by bit, the people that control the people that control governments have been hollowing the system out. They appear to want to destroy democracy, and they are clearly succeeding in doing so. I can not think of anything but implausible series of political miracles which could change that. Therefore, there MUST come some time in the future when that 2 minute video linked above is a good metaphor for what has to happen: FINAL FAILURE FROM TOO MUCH "SUCCESS."
The European Union is in many ways even worse than the Soviet Union. The blueprints for what is being built are based on the success of fundamental financial fraud, by which debt slavery runs away with itself, to become debt insanity. While it is true that force can keep fraud going far longer than it should, the violence which backs up lies still never makes the lies become true. Therefore, each additional brick in the wall causes that leaning tower to lean over just a bit more, then a bit more, in the European edifice of a globalized Bonfire of Vanities.
Buildings do not collapse down to nothing, but rather collapse down to some pile of rubble. Since what is being done appears to me to be a kind of controlled demolition, I think the collapse to chaos will be quite catastrophic. Again, the "successful" aggregation of risk into larger and larger units, by putting out each potential fire from burning things down does not change the fundamental financial frauds, but rather, only allows more and more tinder to be systemically accumulated everywhere, for an unprecedented firestorm to finally go out of control. Thereafter, the surviving people will have to jury rig the broken pieces back into whatever can be made still workable. There will be a tremendous creative challenge to look at the landscape after such a collapse, and think of new ways to recombine the broken pieces into some jury rigged system, which may be able to work in those circumstances.
It will be jerry-rigged people, with jerry-rigged personalities, more or less coping with the collapse of their world view, as well as the economic system, which will have to attempt to recover enough to apply themselves creatively, to maybe turn some of their disadvantages into advantages. Obviously, not much fun, but it looks too late for the dying democracies to save themselves. They actually lost control of their lives when they lost control over the public money supply. Everything since then has been the result of runaway triumphant financial frauds systematically hollowing out pretty well everything, as the predators degenerated into parasites, because their prey became far too incompetent political idiots to be able to understand what was really happening, and indeed, too clueless to care enough to even want to understand.
The integration plan is not contained just to Europe. TPTB are prodding the world along to one world government. The question is how ugly will the next crisis be that brings on the next major push.
Just like the Fed has allowed itself to get caught in a liquidity trap, Europe seems to have allowed itself to get caught in a unification trap.
So Germany generates a trade surplus only by repeated bailing out deadbeat PIIGs countries?
Replace: Germany = China. PIIGs = US
The worst mistake an investor can make is to fall in love with his own forecasts = "Keep stackin'!"
The lever for more integration will be the cleaning up the present problems. They will get the fiscal, legal, monetary, etc unification they wanted....
The only question is will they be passed by the collapse of the dollar and the rise of its replacement the SDR?
It is the US Dollar that will end it.
The US government surely want the Euro to fail (though pretend this not to be the case) to maintain the US Dollar as the reserve currecny that The Euro originally was a threat to. This is obvious when Sadam Hussaine started trading oil in Euros and the US had to get rid of him and his trade.
This ends in greater integration my ass.
The EU will fall apart or end up totalitarian.
The EU - what a shithole.
I imagine Europe's next dictator will be someone like "The Motherfucker."
http://images.wikia.com/kick-ass/images/c/c9/Kick-ass-2-christopher-mint...
A move towards greater integration or totalitarian are not mutually exclusive. Quite the opposite. The latter will usher in the former by way of political & economic pressure.
I believe the EU is drifting in that direction, but those steering it are in flat public denial and the terms used to describe what's happening will be very carefully chosen to avoid frightening the sheep. MSM will do what it's told.
Then it'll be too late.
I think that I've seen this video before....on the NSA website!
In the early part of the presentation the guy nailed a MAJOR problem...the only thing we have to save in are the lousy promises of governments ie we save money and the governments always screw the currency....always...even zee Germans are tolerating it..for now.
The Euro was designed to be a mere medium of exchange and so far, with a few exceptions it is behaving well, certainly better than the dollar.
If gold were to cast off it's derivative anchor and the price of physical were to rise to where it should be...the Euro would look great...it's gold is held at market price! (The Fed has no gold).
At that point people could save either the well behaving currency or in small gold at stable prices.
We are waiting for a reset in the price of gold. That will solve many problems.
On paper Germany look pretty damn good.
With over 50% of thekids out of work in Spain & Greece things are pretty damn good,
Imagine those numbers in the USA, ... it will be civil war in the urban ghettos, at least in EUROPE in general you have regional inclusion, the USA is not unlike the prior soviet union held together by the gun keeping the blacks, and mexicans, and chinks, and white from killing each other not unlike muslims and christians in prior YUGO,
Everytime the USA looks bad, the tylers post some dirt about china or europe,... but never forget the USA is ground zero for cannibilism
well, i am in germany, its not doing pretty well, maybe just on paper, germans are working in neighbouring countries like holland, swiss, belgium, cause they dont have the minimum wage and if they stay in germany, they can get 500eur/month in food industry or 800eur picking in warehouse....THIS IS THE PRICE they pay for euro and bailouts....if they would have stayed with DM, they could still be the kings as before, even with a shit job like those....
what i am curious about is the realestate market here, it ispicking up, Berlin ytd 10%, Germany as a whole almost 3%. Is there a final bubble forming here, The bubble that is supposed to save ....the south, Merkel future, german status quo? is this a chance to get on the bandwagon first? btw Germans and Swiss, are the nations with least homeowners, so there are milions of renters waiting in line and tens thousands bankcunts to process morgages..
Let's see. Someone comes into your house and kicks your balls. "Ow, my balls!" you say. Then you roll over and play dead. And you are Mike Tyson. You play dead for... wait for it... 5, 4, 3,2,...
I'm sorry, did something come after that horrible "music"?
He's right fucked if he thinks the end game will be a tighter happier Europe.
The more likely result is a total collapse and war (as usual).
Message to the EU - if you try to jam many different cultures into one economic and political entity that will not work out well - they will be at each others throats - and the moment things start to slide (as they are now) the blame game starts - 'the germans are tight asses' - 'the greeks are tax cheats' - and on and on and on
The EU was and is a disastrous mistake - and it will end in tears
"if you try to jam many different cultures into one economic and political entity that will not work out well"
Like USA
the US was a disastrous mistake. look where it is now!
the US is the EU on steroids.
Was?
the problem as usual is not with cultures, but with power and control...
EU gang is trying to take over more and more control from national or local gangs that are running individual countries, and they are doing pretty damn good job here.
Even when new party gets in on the wave of popular discontent with the previous gang, they have no choice and so far almost always ended up like a losers.
btw, EU is successfully bribing political elites in new countries as majority of EU funds goes directly to their pocket,thats CEE, interesting is that there is no single cee political party complaining about this, as they all gets their part of a cake.
Centralization of power Baaaad.
Decentralization of power Gooood.
It's really not that hard to understand. This guy could of made a video under 20 seconds explaining the whole "putting all your eggs in one basket" idiom. Money people call it "di-vers-if-ih-ka-shun"
LOL. splendid video, I really enjoyed it. very English
here on 5:50 you'll find a couple of gems: "...so where is this all going to end?
...if you were to base your predictions on the editorial of the Daily Telegraph, you would be sure that the whole european project would collapse, and the EUR would collapse...
...but the fastest way to lose money in Europe, is to read the Daily Telegraph...
...Then more money has been lost in London betting on the (demise) of the EUR, than in almost any other trade...
...Because the British, in general, want the project to fail. and rather than being analytical, the British get (all...?) and emotional about europe. And rather than..."
yet after this little truths, it gets back on the usual English track "...because the european elites are fanatical about the project" "...will force more integration" to the culmination of "...the end of the european nation state as we know it"
too bad that it's based on the premise of LTRO going on, on, on. the author might not have realized yet that this huge amount of liquidity that Draghi pumped in is being drained back
I repeat: the ECB is the only bloody major cb in the world that has reversed course. from something like 280% to 210%, and still ongoing
**** so the whole premise of the video is pure BS. the balance sheets of the FED and the Bank of England are on their way to the 400% to 500% range of GDP, accellerating. meanwhile the ECB is braking and shrinking ****
------------------
and don't get me started on the nation state, the EU and integration. it would need books to explain how strongly the British political discourse has fundamentally misunderstood what the other europeans really want (and so all this talk about "elites")
then at the end, Britain wants, needs, is to lead. it's simply not psychologically fit, at the moment, to think in the terms of peerhood that the others are striving to
we might get even more nation states, soon. and this might include... Scotland
don't kid yourself, folks. the EU isn't even a proper, full confederation, at the moment. sovereign debt will clearly stay national. the EU org has a budget of one trillion over seven years, paid by the member sovereign nations. who will continue to raise their own national taxes, and have their own national militaries, police forces, etc. etc.
if you are looking for federations in europe, then you have to look at countries like Germany and Spain, not the EU, which has no taxman, no army, no fleet, no federal police, and where sovereign members can leave
"too bad that it's based on the premise of LTRO going on, on, on. the author might not have realized yet that this huge amount of liquidity that Draghi pumped in is being drained back
I repeat: the ECB is the only bloody major cb in the world that has reversed course. from something like 280% to 210%, and still ongoing"
Thanks for this. Is there a site where I can find the statistics on the ECB's balance sheet?
Thanks
What Europeans want is the money to keep flowing.
What do they want when it stops depends on where they sit on the balance sheet.
Ergo, the money will flow.
Welcome to US FED World. The never endind game of kick the can.
Correct Ghordius. If I were German and they tried to integrate external debt, I would go apeshit.
There are many views to this and they are not unbiased. As clearly indicated in the Media the US is not happy about Merkel's rejection of ECB pressure to make Germany assume more risk on her books instead of forcing the ECB to do it. The banking alliance will be on her terms or not.
Obviously behind all this is the ongoing private banking bubble in EU, and, as there are conflicting models north and south of economic paradigms, the south and the USA resent the Germans chugging along imposing their dictat on federalism at their terms and on their time line.
France is now being sucked along as its core in terms of banking and peripheral in terms of economic model.
Hollande now caught between two pulls; social protection or productivity gains. His subservience to US MIC his only card for exports. Apart from wine and cheese and some big corporations France relies on arms sales like all these MIC dominated economies.
On the banking side, where the Oligarchs have 5 trillon in cash to invest now mostly sitting in Singapore or HK, a place where now big gold is also accumulating as a sign of hedging US and Euro fragility, one good development is the emergence of SEFs swap clearing houses that will replace OTC swaps and deriv trades with registered clearing houses. If we could introduce more transparency in interbank swaps it will help clear the air on systemic private sector risk. Some solace in a HUGE dark pool of rehypothec.
Huh?
They missed out what happens when FIAT collapses...
No brainer
in school they teach us how the germans try to take over eu with ww2 with force and now it looks like they make it with debt.
SPAIN - THE BIG LIE
Via translation please consider Recession Continues and Spain on Brink of Deflation
Liars, irresponsible and heartless have brought misery to the poor and middle class crushed with confiscatory taxes. These are the qualifications of prime minister Rajoy and his henchmen who hypocritically celebrate deception to a people. They have not taken Spain out of the recession, but they have brought us to the brink of deflation that will bring more poverty, pain and tears. The reported GDP and employment figures for the third quarter of 2013 are clearly incompatible. A job loss of 70,000 people in seasonally adjusted terms is not compatible with a rise of GDP (albeit marginal) given the fall of 98% of its components.
It's an impossible metaphysical. As Jean Claude Trichet, former ECB president said "Spanish statistics are hard to believe." Since then Spain's official GDP figure exceeds actual around 30%. Nonetheless, Rajoy has started marketing the same lies as Zapatero regarding green shoots of 2009, that have not yet arrived. Even though taxes have risen to a confiscatory level, they have cut wages, pensions, unemployment and imposed all kinds of misery on more than 3 million people. Job losses continue at an unaffordable rate: 500,000 people through September and more than a million since Rajoy became prime minister.
Social Security contributors are down 1.1 million workers. And if we go into the fine print, the issue is even worse: The number of permanent contracts in the third quarter fell by 146,300 while that of temporary workers increased by 169,500. How can the stock market go up when the results of the Ibex are the worst in the Western world? The reason is simple: the entry of speculative money, by the enormous amount of liquidity but not moving the debt market. Yet, Rajoy and his minions tell us that "the recession is over, we grow at 0.1%. We're not coming out of recession. It's impossible.
No country can get out of a recession with annual wastage of 10% of GDP by corrupt state officials and a financial system that has already cost us over 40 billion euros with guarantees of another 280 billion of which a good portion is not viable. It's impossible with interest rates of 12 to 16% solvent customers. Many analysts applaud the Government's actions more taxes, lower wages and drastic cuts to the weakest. These pseudo-experts overlook that confiscatory tax policy, the government deficit, and the lack of credit. The crisis is not only unseemly, it is also vile.
Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/10/scathing-attack-on-ra...
Union or no union, what is really at stake is a functionlal society which in the absence of low unemployment, decent wages, low debt to gdp, lower personal debt and a decent system of retirement and medical treatment, just won't happen.
Therefore in my books the issue is about outcomes rather than ideology, politics or systems.
This is where I think Europe and generally all the world will stumble because the aggregate of all problems will only be exacerbated by demogrphics, market manipulations, extreme income disparity etc.
Perhaps nirvana will be reached in a couple of genrations when incompetent governments and crazy central bankers suceed in making us all equally poor.
I don't know about you, but I'm going long WHITE-BOARD MARKERS.
Fire Angel
Good video, shit conclusion. The British are correct, it's just impossible to time the market when CBs are involved and printing money..