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Welcome To The Non-Recovery: ADP Payrolls Miss Big, Plunge To Lowest Since April (With Infographic)

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/30/2013 08:30 -0400

As we mentioned earlier, if there was one thing that would guarantee an 1800 print in the Stalingrad and Propaganda 500 index today, it was a 0 or negative ADP print. Well, it wasn't that bad. But it was close: with a paltry 130K private jobs created in October, this was a monthly plunge in private (i.e. non-government) payrolls, well below expectations, and substantially lower than the September 166K print which also was revised lower to 145K. It was also the 4th consecutive monthly decline starting with a 190K print in June, and it's all downhill from there. Finally, this was the 7th ADP miss in the past 8 months. We can't wait as the spinmasters do all they can to explain how private payrolls were affected by a government shutdown.

Broken down by jobs, while there was finally a pick up in manufacturing (+5K), and Construction (+14K) jobs, this was more than offset by the best paying jobs of all, Financial Activities, which dipped by 5K in October, in line with the wholesale termination of every banker dealing with the mortgage banking loss center.

Blame Obamacare: the small firms showed the smallest job gain in 10 months, medium-sized firms: smallest gain in 14 months.

Report highlights:

From the ADP press release:

"According to ADP National Employment Report findings, the U.S. private sector added a total of 130,000 jobs during the month of October, well below the average of the last twelve months,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. "Small business growth was down from the previous month, while payrolls among large enterprises showed an increase."

And of course: here comes the government shutdown blame. Quote Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, "The government shutdown and debt limit brinksmanship hurt the already softening job market in October. Average monthly growth has fallen below 150,000. Any further weakening would signal rising unemployment. The weaker job growth is evident across most industries and company sizes.”

Someone please tell Zandi private jobs are not, well, non-private. Ah, forget it.

This is what a New Normal non-recovery looks like:

How ADP compares to BLS:

Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Jobs by Industry:

Finally, thanks to the ADP being the most socially-media friendly jobs release organization, here is their October infographic:

Infographic: ADP National Employment Report Shows 130,000 Jobs Added in October

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Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:35 | 4104220 GetZeeGold

well below expectations

Crap....not again!

Thank goodness at least everyone has cheap healthcare.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:36 | 4104228 King_of_simpletons

They should really get rid of the "Expectations" number to compare with. This way any positive number is great news.

This decade is going to be called Hedonist's Dream Decade.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:40 | 4104244 TeMpTeK

Off topic here...but i just heard Ken Langone say that ihe has nothing to hide and the govt can have whatever they want.... hey Ken.... FUCK YOU!!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:41 | 4104249 Shocker

We are in a Recovery, not possible

Layoff / Closing List

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:59 | 4104299 Bobbyrib

It's always interesting to go on the site and check out the jobs that are being cut so you have an idea of what the future holds and what the true economy looks like (not the BLS lies). A lot of the jobs are the ones that allow middle class workers to buy all their iCrap. Eventually everything is going down as the multi-nationals keep destroying jobs to raise their profit margins.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:25 | 4104403 Ying-Yang

"Financial Activities, which dipped by 5K in October, in line with the wholesale termination of every banker dealing with the mortgage banking loss center."

Since the FED is holding most of the MBS, will they begin hiring to offset?

Fed Seen Avoiding Historic Loss by Holding Mortgage Debt

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-28/fed-sees-avoiding-unprecedented...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 10:09 | 4104535 Manthong

Top headline on Google Finance at 10 a.m. eastern…

Private Sector Payrolls Increase by 130000 in October

Fox Business - 1 hour ago

U.S. private-sector employers added 130,000 jobs in October, lower than economists' expectations for the month, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

..lemonade from lemons for cursory sheep (or is that Kool-Aid?)..

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 12:55 | 4105196 SDShack

How many of those 130K jobs are <30 hours to avoid 0zer0care? I bet it's the majority. Lots of luck trying to survive on that, PLUS pay for your own 0zer0care. Or...out of those 130K jobs, how many are actually 2nd jobs? How does a person taking a second job reduce either unemployment or underemployment? Welcome to the new normal in 0zer0world.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 09:11 | 4108243 redd_green

Of course, new jobs keeping up just enough for all the PhD's streaming in from India and China.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:37 | 4104235 Running On Bing...

It does not matter. These figures are for Non Farm, everyone knows the high paying good jobs are Farm, funny farm, fat farm, offshore farm.

DO NOT SPOOK MY MARKET!!! We prayed about it no??!

Over.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:39 | 4104241 negative rates

You forgot fish farming.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:41 | 4104246 Headbanger

State Farm??

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:56 | 4104290 dontgoforit

Wind farm?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:28 | 4104415 King_Julian

Animal Farm.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:32 | 4104426 g'kar

Funny Farm.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:44 | 4104466 Hulk

Fruit Farm...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:48 | 4104481 highly illogical

Ant farm

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 11:05 | 4104730 brown_hornet

Farm team

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:48 | 4104486 SokPOTUS

Farm Girls. Naive as can be, and desperate as hell. Bullish.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:53 | 4104282 bubblemania

Bullish!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:35 | 4104226 caShOnlY

MOAR bullish - no taper

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:39 | 4104243 butchee

Trick or treat...... Reverse taper!

That old saying, how you always hurt the one you love, well, it works both ways.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:59 | 4104298 kralizec

Taper (snicker!)

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:35 | 4104229 Atomizer

Better than expected.

/sarc

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:37 | 4104234 jubber

God I want to smash Steve liesmans head in with a baseball bat.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:41 | 4104247 Canadian Dirtlump

I'll follow that up by farting in his general direction.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:42 | 4104251 Bearwagon

Don't give a damn about the bat - just smash!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:42 | 4104254 Headbanger

Don't do him any favors! You might knock some sense into him. But then he'd lose his propaganda job if he made any sense.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:47 | 4104267 Calculus99

Then when he's down give him a good kicking :)

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:38 | 4104237 Shizzmoney

This should be good for another +75 to +100 for the DOW today

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:42 | 4104252 Atomizer

The rally monkey will meet new Stock Market highs. Baiting sideline investors has never been more clear.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:39 | 4104242 TheFreeLance

Who needs jobs? Just issue everyone a federal bank charter and let them collect interest from the Fed. Sweep it straight to EBT cards. Done.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:57 | 4104294 dontgoforit

This might be closer than we think.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:42 | 4104250 Sufiy

No Taper now or even another Surprise:

Peter Schiff: Fed Will Do The Opposite Of Tapering - More Money Printing!

Peter Schiff is very consistent in his views and even if his call for more QE sounds totally outrages do not discount it too fast. ZeroHedge reports that he is not alone in his observations. If it ever happens Gold will receive The Catalyst so many people are waiting for. http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/peter-schiff-fed-will-do-opposite-of.html#

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:53 | 4104278 yogibear

Schiff is right on. Wait until Yellen takes the helm. She'll encourage more government spending and debt and the QE to buy the debt.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 10:48 | 4104671 analyzer_66

Sorry but there is simply too much manipulation going on visa-vi the Plunge Protection Team, to allow gold to rise too much, same as silver. Gold market manipulation was suspected several weeks ago when there were several large scale sell orders that seemed to come from nowhere. If somehow paper gold and silver were completely eliminated from being allowed to trade, then you might be able to get near what the true supply and demand prices for gold and silver are. Silver should be 35-40 per ounce all day long, based on what industrial demand has been over the past 10 years, but someone the price of silver keeps taking a beat down. When Ron Paul hints that the "big stuff" happens behind closed doors, manipulation of the stock and commodity markets is likely part of what he is referring to.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:43 | 4104256 ejmoosa

Without the quantittaive easing, we should have been approaching 0 job growth for the year.

The Fed easing has kept jobs higher for at least a year, but the gommick has lost steam.

And still, our heads are stuck in the Obama Dung, not being allowed to address what really ails our economy.

What a waste of time AND money.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 12:56 | 4105182 SDShack

It's even worse than that. Look at the study that showed the cost of each job created in 2013 is $553,000. Yeah, that's brilliant. Give us MOAR of that!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4104271 yogibear

Less jobs translates to more fed QE for member banks to buy stocks which pushes stocks higher.

Withe negative job numbers the market would really take off.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:50 | 4104274 MFLTucson

When does the media start to hold this clown responsible for the detruction of America?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:58 | 4104297 dontgoforit

When the last one of them still standing says, "Oh, they were right all along!"

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 08:55 | 4104286 yogibear

Investors and traders should be calling for more layoffs and job cuts. It will raise stocks to much higher levels.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:00 | 4104304 dontgoforit

I guess when no one is working the DJIA will hit 50,000,000

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:02 | 4104313 Bobbyrib

'We must destroy the consumer base until the collapse.'

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:04 | 4104316 XAU XAG

Increased margins from decreased labour costs only cuts it so .........far then it's down hill all the way.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:03 | 4104314 jubber

o/t IBEX turns red, European futures off their earlier blow off tops...

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:18 | 4104372 q99x2

The Gov't fixed not to invent that last month.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:34 | 4104435 venturen

OMG give Crooked Bankers MOAR Trillions!

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:51 | 4104492 highly illogical

Just wait until those 400,000 Obamacare jobs kick in. Then you're going to look pretty stupid.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:54 | 4104503 SokPOTUS

Do Bangalore programmers count in the numbers?

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 09:53 | 4104502 SokPOTUS

At least employment is tapering. You guys really need to ease up a little.

Wed, 10/30/2013 - 13:01 | 4105219 semperfi

All just part of the master script - all "official" numbers are now just made-up/propaganda.

Welcome To The Non-Recovery: ADP Payrolls Miss Big, Plunge To Lowest Since April (With Infographic)

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