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Chicago PMI Explodes Most On Record To 31-Month High; Biggest Beat Ever

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Sometimes you just have to laugh... Chicago, it would seem, felt not just no bad impact from the government shutdown (that so many asset managers and CEOs have proclaimed as the reason for any slowdown - and the need to avoid a Taper) but it roared to its highest since March 2011. This blew expectations away by the most on record (8-sigma). New orders are at the highest level since October 2004. October’s advance in the Barometer was its biggest monthly increase in over 30 years and only the third time in the past decade the Barometer has risen for four consecutive months. US equities are not happy about this apparent 'taper-on' improvement (and have dropped 8 points on the release) - though it appears seasonals are playing a major part.

 

 

and in context - this is an 8 sigma beat:

 

MNI notes however that two reasons stand out for this surge:

  1. Half the gains stem from seasonal adjustments, and
  2. October is the time when pre-Chinese New Year orders hit

 

 

US equities are not happy at this "good" news...

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 10/31/2013 - 09:59 | 4108367 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Haha

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:05 | 4108410 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Haha......that's the best you can do? I blew snot on my cheerios with that BS and gave it a big fochin BWWWWWWWWWWWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:18 | 4108441 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Now I'm LOL

Also isn’t kinda late for Cheerios at this time?..... or R U out there in Hawaii?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:16 | 4108449 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

It's all made up so the Fed can taper cause the big banks want out of this charade now!

THE CRASH IS UPON US!

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:27 | 4108474 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Always remember, there is no penalty for lying. Especially if you live with moral hazard. Fucking FED.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:00 | 4108568 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Start of Christmas season tomorrow. Just trying to herd the sheep back into JCP.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 09:59 | 4108369 ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

GM channel stuffing, rebates accelerating, subprime loans cranking away at Ally.  They will crank out as many cars and make as many subprime auto loans as the administration needs to keep this joke of a recovery moving along.........

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 09:59 | 4108372 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Chicago? Isn't that the corrupt place where the Kenyan was groomed to be the first and last Kenyan US President?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:06 | 4108404 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

"where the Kenyan was groomed"

Or is that shroomed?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:14 | 4108442 Idisq
Idisq's picture

choomed?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:50 | 4108532 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Faggoomed!

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:09 | 4108424 Obadiah
Obadiah's picture

kenyan?  whatch out thats the fake lie the luciferians put out to head fake you so not to reveal his real daddy.

he's a amerikan alright and his daddy was frank marshal davis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Marshall_Davis

dammed commies

after i downloaded the 'birth cert' DIRECTLY from the whitehouse website, with 17 layers present for everyone to see i knew there was somtin very funny about that..... then it hit me when i found out about his commie porn shooting daddy?

 

 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:23 | 4108463 pods
pods's picture

Sure, having a controversial daddy is much worse than being ineligible for the POTUS because you were not a natural born citizen.

pods

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:16 | 4108609 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I've also downloaded the phony birth certificate from their site but came away with a different question. Any child can see the thing is fake with the mismatched printing and the layered changes still imbedded in the document so why is it posted? This goes beyond ordinary incompetence so what is the purpose of posting such an obvious fake? You're not the first to point it out. They could have easily pulled the original and reposted a version without the layers but instead they leave this lie exposed for anyone to see. Why?

Paranoid reason 1: Does the downloaded document come with an NSA approved tag to let them keep track of malcontents?

Paranoid reason 2: Is this is to keep the Kenyan/Not Kenyan in line because if he fails to do his masters' bidding the MSM will suddenly 'discover' the forgery?

Lots of other cool possibilities exist, enough to entertain me for a long time.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:20 | 4108457 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The mayor of Chicago is a good friend of the Kenyan. The Chicago political machine has taken over Washington DC over 4 years ago. 

Expect increasing shell games and debt/deficit stuffing like Blogo did.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 09:59 | 4108373 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

They're not even trying to be subtle about the manipulation anymore.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:21 | 4108459 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Chicago corruption at it's best.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 09:59 | 4108374 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

Somebody fat fingered a new order. I like readings like this that make even the lemmings on Wall St scratch their heads and say Whaaaaat?

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:00 | 4108376 6th of May
6th of May's picture

Doesn't matter.

If people limit their purchases for needless things... - and that's what's going to happen sooner or later - ... it's going down the toilet!

 

They can manipulate data all they like - in the end the average person is more important

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:00 | 4108377 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

LMFAO.   Just imagine the result if the .gov was really shut down.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:12 | 4108435 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There would be a lot less droned dead people around the world.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:15 | 4108445 SandiaMan
SandiaMan's picture

Gas would be 50 cents a gallon

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:19 | 4108615 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If you could find it, yes, and if the "50-cent piece" you were exchanging was made from silver, then yes, most definitely.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:00 | 4108378 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

So that means next month will see the largest beat ever in inventories? 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:00 | 4108379 ultraticum
ultraticum's picture

New Orders . . . for what?

 

Big Pharma
Obozocare
Muppet-vision
Insurance-for-idiots
HFT accounts
GMO foods
Militarized police vehicles

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:22 | 4108465 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

How is this data collected? Automated, electronic, paper forms, manual data entry by low level employees, reviewed by a manager that can "interpret" the data to potentially effect its outcome? I don't want to be this way but with the way this information is seemingly random, yet not, and subject to constant revisions, it could be a simple as using a random number generator. We know Illinois is broke and can't pay most of their suppliers. Maybe they are saving bucks by simply guessing instead of doing the work, or if it is contracted out, those vendors may experience extremely late pays if the "numbers" don't look so good.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:00 | 4108381 Boston
Boston's picture

Taper ON!

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:04 | 4108393 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

yeah, that pmi thingy is bearish as hell

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:04 | 4108397 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Tapir attack!!!

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:06 | 4108411 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Ahem...There will be NO taper.

 

That is all.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:09 | 4108427 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Dr. Engali, I see what you did, trying to turn it around.  Attack Tapir!!! Not sure it really matters either way. 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:15 | 4108447 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Lads, you know what? Anti-taper is gonna happen. Meaning, like untaper, just ... better ...

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:02 | 4108384 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

"Good" news is bad today ... Tapermania!

When will MSM start to use the adjective, "Exorbitant" to describe economic data.

Well Steve, that was a truly Exorbitant number in PMI today!

And they can use "abysmal" for statistically messianic numbers below as well.

Spice things up a bit. Especially when the algos correlate those new adjectives with probabilities ...

 

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:05 | 4108400 replaceme
replaceme's picture

Who bases decisions on this information, really?  I imagine even the algos are saying 'Now that's just f*cking crazy talk'....

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:05 | 4108408 NDXTrader
NDXTrader's picture

We might see October numbers beat across the board as purchasing managers unloaded all of their cash before the "shutdown"

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:08 | 4108418 semperfi
semperfi's picture

House hits 21 again - you lose.  Better luck next hand.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:11 | 4108432 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Speaking of "exploding", look at the yeild on the ten year go!!!

no pomo tomorrow homo...

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:40 | 4108502 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Meh...wake me when they have to stop trading because of a real move.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:13 | 4108438 semperfi
semperfi's picture

When you own a printing press and share with your buddies, and suspend the rule of law, anything is possible - and controllable - for as long as you want - well, for at least 50 to 100 years.  Which is how long this game will probably go on. Welcome to the new Soviet Union comrade. Stock up on vodka while its still cheap.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:12 | 4108603 CH1
CH1's picture

The USSR made it 70 years. That doesn't bode well for the Cartel.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 12:55 | 4108919 tvdog
tvdog's picture

The Federal Reserve has existed for almost exactly 100 years.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:17 | 4108448 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

There is only one number that matters to me and that is my asset stash and even it has become illusionary. What fucking difference does any of this other shit make? Everyday a new nonsensical metric appears and everyone frantically goes to work conjuring a formula of explanation, when realistically, we only know that we have no control and no real way to anticipate anything but chaos. When every day feels like it could be the one, eventually we start hoping it will be. Thats kind of fucked and ultimately, outside of all of the FACTS, I think that is what is slowly killing our economy. We know its fucked and just want it over.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:33 | 4108489 semperfi
semperfi's picture

If you sell your soul to the devil you can get very rich in this current environment.  If you are a moral person and play by the rules you will break even at best.  If you are a moral person and try to oppose the devil you will get crushed.  The bad guys have the upper hand and will so for a long time.  The good guys don't have the fortitude and courage right now to rise up - they are still too comfortable.  Many dark years ahead with no end in sight.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:29 | 4108482 Handful of Dust
Handful of Dust's picture

yeah, but 90% of the sales were Vaseline and other Lubes.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:42 | 4108505 adr
adr's picture

As a joke in my last planning meeting I told the president of my company that all we need to do is seasonally adjust our sales upwards 30% and book the revenue. Then we'll have plenty of cash on the books for operations.

Instead of a laugh I got this blank stare like I just came up with the greatest idea in the history of the universe.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 11:06 | 4108587 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Hahahahaha.  Amazing just how courrpt we have become.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 12:13 | 4108785 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

the body bag, squeegee, bucket and dead human rendering industries must be booming

 

prosperity for everyone

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 12:31 | 4108853 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

The same Chicago where the city government is down to less than 10 days cash? That Chicago? Hee-fuckin-larious.

Thu, 10/31/2013 - 13:24 | 4109012 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

"bad impact from the government shutdown"

I still do not see how a two week shut down causes any change in 4th Qtr GDP.  Everyone will be paid the same amount in the 4th Qtr as if the shutdown never ocurred.  So where is the harm done? 

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