Manufacturing ISM Prints At Highest Since April 2011; "No Impact From Government Shutdown"

So much for the government shutdown - as one of the just released manufacturing ISM respondents so candidly put it, "The government shutdown has not had any impact on our business that I
can determine, nor has it impacted any supplier shipments." And speaking of the ISM itself, it naturally rejected everything that the Markit PMI noted, and printed at 56.4, beating expectations of a 55.0 print, the 5th beat in a row, and the highest print since April 2011. Sadly, it was not 66.4 or 76.4 to at least partially "confirm" the Chicago ISM surge. So while virtually all ISM components rose, with exports spiking by 5 points to 57.0, it was the employment index that dipped yet again, from 55.4 to 53.2, the lowest since June, but in the New Normal who needs jobs when one has Schrodinger diffusion indices to confuse everyone on a daily basis. Either way, while stocks did not like yesterday's exploding Chicago PMI and dipped on fears of a December taper, today's 2 years ISM high is one of those good news is good news instances, and ES soars as usual.

In chart format:

The report breakdown:

From the report:

The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The PMI™ registered 56.4 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from September's reading of 56.2 percent. The PMI™ has increased progressively each month since June, with October's reading reflecting the highest PMI™ in 2013. The New Orders Index increased slightly in October by 0.1 percentage point to 60.6 percent, while the Production Index decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 60.8 percent. Both the New Orders and Production Indexes have registered above 60 percent for three consecutive months. The Employment Index registered 53.2 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to September's reading of 55.4 percent. The panel's comments are generally positive about the current business climate; however, there are mixed responses on whether the government shutdown and potential default have had any effect on October's results."

And the respondents:

• "New business is booming." (Textile Mills)
• "The government shutting down and threatening to go into a default position is causing all kinds of concerns in our markets." (Fabricated Metal Products)
• "The government shutdown has not had any impact on our business that I can determine, nor has it impacted any supplier shipments." (Chemical Products)
• "Government spending continues to be slow in defense and military. The government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis did not affect business." (Transportation Equipment)
• "Telecom market — wireless and VOIP — appear to be spiking. We are very busy; busier than we have ever been." (Computer & Electronic Products)
• "Seasonal demand has not decreased at the typical pace. Market showing resiliency in the residential market." (Primary Metals)
• "Business continues to improve every month for the past nine months." (Furniture & Related Products)
• "Big Box Store discounting providing increased sales bump short term." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
• "Our customers continue to be cautious and are closely managing their purchases. Business continues to be flat to slightly down." (Machinery)
• "Outlook on general appliance market continues in a positive direction. Uncertainty, however, looms with unclear government direction pending." (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)

Comments

[Capitalist]

Good Chicago PMI = sell ES, Good ISM Manufacturing PMI = buy ES... the algos are having a field day.

[Headbanger]

But 10 year Treasury yield is saying "taper on" !

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year

Is it all just channel stuffing before rates go higher??

[LetThemEatRand]

All this conflicting data makes sense.  Great print here = QE has been working.  Bad print over there = MOAR QE needed.  I believe that the bankers are having their cake and eating it too.

[Dr. Engali]

I believe you meant to say the bankers are eating our cake and future generation's too.

[Boston]

Taper ON.

Well at least credit thinks so.

[screw face]

Breakthrough: tbtf Banks have industrialized the annihilation of Humanity

[ChaosEquilibrium]

The indexes immediately dropped relative 10 points upon release......the TRICKY dynamic in play for the FED is how to HIDE the irrational rational market response to data release:

What is good for the middle class: GOOD numbers-- improving employment, growth etc.

What is good for Wall Street/Elite/market indexes:  Bad numbers=  more FREE MONEY!!!

Notice ALL WORLD EQUITY markets popped off the lows of data release.....The Market is telling us that the Market is BROKEN......the FED will DO EVERYTHING/ANYTHING in its power to NOT let this ILLUSION be understood and known--CONFIDENCE!:)

[Mark123]

You will drive yourself mad trying to apply some logic to these "markets".  Just start with the premise that it is all just a tool to extract real wealth from the populace by ANY means and the rest is easy.

Sadly, many of us still think we can win my being contrarian investors....

[yogibear]

"What is good for Wall Street/Elite/market indexes:  Bad numbers=  more FREE MONEY!!!"

It's what is in play. It's the show.

[screw face]

DOD, DOD, DOD,DOD,

[Cursive]

New business is booming at textile mills?  Where the hell is this and maybe someone should tell GAP or JCP or Aeropostale....

[Quinvarius]

Well...

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/20/business/us-textile-factories-return.html?_r=0

It isn't like it is a jobs thing.  But at least the machines are here.

[SheepDog-One]

Textile mills booming....WTF now they're trying to pretend it's the 1940's?

[SheepDog-One]

'Soaring ES'...didn't really see it myself. Anyway I'm just wondering what the next totally fake 'crisis' will be next week or over the weekend, where we all need to surrender or surely we'd all die, and of course a couple weeks later everyone admits there was no crisis at all.

[Dr. Engali]

 All of the U.S will have to come to a complete halt during the Thanksgiving turkey shortage of 2013. There will be a crisis of confidence as millions of fat fucks around the states cry out in agony, because they can't stuff their faces and promptly let out their pants to load up some more until they finally collapse from turkey stuffing exhaustion.....wait, that sounds like thanksgiving with my family.

[Bearwagon]

Maybe shooting down instead of shutting down would do better ...

[Mercury]

"The government shutdown has not had any impact on our business that I can determine, nor has it impacted any supplier shipments."

Hmmm, maybe we have more government than we actually need.

The White House has been trying to spin this surprise shutdown feature as a bug.

[Stoploss]

But, but, Barry said the whole world would collapse if the govt shutdown.

Ass wut he sed.

[steveo77]

SPX futures pinging off the Bernoulli 133 channel line 
When the chart "pings" off an important channel line, that gives a lot of credibility to the channel. Futures ES is shown here, with a perfect ping off the Bernoulli 133 channel line extension.  
 
Bernoulli channels (my creation) are like Fibonacci, but they take into account uptrends and downtrends, i.e. headwinds and tailwinds, organic buying and selling amidst the trading moves. 
 
As predicted a few days ago, I expect a move to 1700 to the Bernoulli mid channel line, the B50. 
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2013/11/spx-futures-pinging-off- bernoulli-133.html

[MFLTucson]

Never a dull moment, the lies just never end.