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Event Risk: Down But Not Out

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The German election is over and the confrontation over the US debt ceiling has ended, so event risk should be minimal, right? Not so fast, UBS' Mike Schumacher warns - plenty of pitfalls could trip markets. Forward-looking measures of 'risk' are beginning to show some signs of less-than-exuberance reflected in all-time-highs across all US equity indices and if previous episodes of 'low-vol' are any guide, the current complacency is long in the tooth... no matter how 'top-heavy' stocks become; bloated by the flow of heads-bulls-win-tails-bears-lose ambivalence...

As @Not_Jim_Cramer recently pointed out, the VIX decline appears on borrowed time... (we recently noted, suppressing 'normal' volatility leads to "problems" down the line)

And credit markets have already begun to show 'doubts' in the short-term...

and longer-term...

As event risks remain across the globe...

Via UBS' Global Investment Research,

One caveat before we go further. We are bond guys, which means that we naturally look for blue skies to become gray. Even so, risks abound.

We begin with Europe, where news flow should continue to accelerate. The Greek debt burden remains a problem. Furthermore, Ireland probably will seek a precautionary credit line. We expect Portugal to get and use an Enhanced Conditions Credit Line. The May 2014 elections for the European Parliament could pose a test for markets. This statement may seem wild, since the Parliament has only a very indirect effect on financial markets. However, the new Parliament may well contain a significant proportion of members who are "eurosceptic". If this turns out to be the case, further steps in banking union, and toward greater European integration, could become much more difficult. It is also possible that national governments could reflect the same sentiment and become more populist, thereby hindering these processes even more.

In addition, European markets will be looking for the German Constitutional Court's blessing on the ECB's Outright Monetary Transaction policy. The Court is likely to rule in favor. However, there are risks around whether it imposes restrictions on executing the program and what form they might take.

Japan has become a major source of volatility. Its latest event risk is the consumption tax increase, which is due to occur in April. This is a “known unknown.” Still, we worry that the economy could be derailed, leaving the Bank of Japan to increase its already stupendous purchases of Japanese government bonds. Yields probably would fall, even though the 10yr rate of about 0.60% already is near an all-time low and has plunged 30bp since June 30. Although this Japan risk is quite troubling, the good news is that an economic slowdown likely will not become evident until at least June.

While Europe and Japan have challenges, we consider the US the biggest source of event risk over the next three months. We are particularly concerned about a “hat trick” of issues in late January / early February:

Fed transition. Assuming that Janet Yellen’s confirmation proceeds smoothly, the transition at the Federal Reserve will occur on February 1. US economist Drew Matus points out that a new Fed Chair typically has to deal with a bout of market volatility early in his/her tenure.

 

Debt ceiling. We hate to mention this horrid topic, but cannot avoid it. The ceiling has been suspended through February 7. The UBS public policy team opines that a “grand bargain” on the US budget is very unlikely, thereby making for acrimony over the debt ceiling. We suspect that virtually everyone reading this publication shares our hope that the discussions proceed more smoothly than they did this month. Nonetheless, we expect the debate to heat up in late January.

 

Fed tapering. Finally, the market should be abuzz over potential Fed tapering. The UBS economics team continues to look for tapering to be announced in January and begin in February. We share this view. The consensus appears to be for tapering to start in March. Regardless, by late January the market should be abuzz with speculation and repositioning around tapering.

How to play it

Our main conclusion from the discussion of risks is that implied volatility should rise over the next three months, particularly on USD assets. Investors who can transact in options have numerous alternatives. Our top choice is to buy vol on a forward basis. For instance, the investor could purchase options that expire in six months and sell two month options on the same underlying asset, such as a USD 10yr interest rate swap. A client who can only go long options should consider buying 4-6 month expiries.

Fixed income investors who do not use options still can gird themselves for rising vol. For example, we recommend avoiding bonds that are callable in three to six months. Furthermore, they should consider selling agency mortgage-backed securities. We have been negative on this sector for several months, and the potential increase in vol gives us one more reason to be skittish.

 

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Sun, 11/03/2013 - 22:27 | 4118330 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Black Swans are by definition unpredictable and of "low probability".  There are plenty of things out there that "could" happen.  Best be diversified!

Gold is good for that if you do not own enough.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 00:53 | 4118558 Obese-Redneck
Obese-Redneck's picture

On a side note,  ex-chief Kessler is taking a railing from Ted Nugent over at ex-officer Pike's place right now!

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 07:07 | 4118782 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Yeah there just might be some risk driving 120mph for too long as this market is doing.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 08:16 | 4118795 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's uncle Ted's fault bitchez!

 

Apparently Ted shot his dog or something.....dunno what's going on there.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 00:54 | 4118560 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Something smells Fishy

Many others feel that there are global dealings afoot....go with what your gut is saying!

http://twoshortplanksunplugged.blogspot.com.au/

Sun, 11/03/2013 - 22:33 | 4118342 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

i got my ass handed to me so many times by K Henry trying to go long vix, i could of bought a porche 911.  Never again will I try short the market or some outlandish thing like go long vix.  I'd rather take that money and buy something or take a vacation.  At least i will have enjoyed it rather then pissed it away

Sun, 11/03/2013 - 23:19 | 4118430 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The VIX is going nowhere.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 07:43 | 4118806 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

There ya go.. Positive proof of the complacency in the "market". 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 00:05 | 4118506 chump666
chump666's picture

Why didn't you listen to ZH??? Jeez, you would have bought a Porsche with the K-Hen trades!!!

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 00:20 | 4118521 Manthong
Manthong's picture

VIX, like gold, has been obviated by the “money masters”.

It cannot track caution or fear in a market where fear is subordinated to compliance.

That being said, it will go thermonuclear in that instance when the omnipotent screw up in their algos.

The real question is whether the masters of the universe can put the genie back in the bottle.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 06:08 | 4118746 Apostate2
Apostate2's picture

That's the way I see it. Or, Pandora's box. Neither will be contained.

Sun, 11/03/2013 - 22:48 | 4118380 chump666
chump666's picture

Looks topped and dare I say possible a sell off is on the cards. Event risk will grow against a backdrop of profit taking pre-xmas, but the voodoo high priests at Fed will underwrite for the Santa rally.  But something could come without much warning, rogue trade, war, Obama doing something dumb, global event i.e disaster...anything could cause a panic on an overbought market

The VIX/VOX ominous 20

http://sixfigureinvesting.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Vol86-2011.jpg

Sun, 11/03/2013 - 22:50 | 4118384 Trampy
Trampy's picture

I wish the Tylers would have basic respect for authorship when they quote from copyrighted material.  They'd get a lot more respect if they stopped the constant sensationalism, exaggeration, and sometimes outright distortion to suit their agenda du jour.

Or maybe they simply don't understand the moral right of an author to be properly credited, through citations that allow the Tylers' selective quotations to be judged for their accuracy, or lack thereof. 

Fair Use of copyrighted material is a two-way street.  If you're gonna copy someone's work, do unto others as you would have them do unto you.

Why do the Tylers never give a date of publication when they copy the work of others?  Did they dredge this up from last month or is it hot off the press?  Context indicates last month, but exactly when?  If you poke fun, at least let us know at what you're poking.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 07:40 | 4118799 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Looks like someone is in a bitchy mood.

 

Anything else we can do for you princess?

Sun, 11/03/2013 - 22:50 | 4118385 Reaper
Reaper's picture

For the want of a nail, a kingdom was lost. It's the final straw that breaks the camel's back. A small stone took down Goliath. Every house of cards eventually tumbles. Endless hope is the fools' delight.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 07:11 | 4118786 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Event risks in 2014 as seen by a TBTF banker :

Equities: A Pause Before Further Advance - Business Insider

2014 : banner year for stocks! 

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!