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Is 4,616 On The S&P 500 The Fed's Ultimate Goal?
It is only fitting that promptly following the third worst bear market of all time resulting from the bursting of the biggest, until that point, credit bubble ...
... that as a result of over $10 trillion in global fungible central bank balance sheet expansion, and a new and improve and bigger than ever credit bubble, one which includes the sovereigns too, the S&P is now 162% higher from its March 9 2009 lows of 676.53, making this the fourth biggest bull market in US history, and 120% greater than the median, 73.53%, bull market since 1929.
The next logical question: what would make this relentless Fed balance sheet tracking "bull market" become the 3rd biggest bull market in history, or 2nd biggest... or biggest of all time.
Here are the S&P500 breakevens for those particular thresholds:
- 2,225 on the S&P would mean a 228.9% rise from the lows, becoming the 3rd biggest bull market ever.
- 2,500 on the S&P would mean a 267.1% rise from the lows, becoming the 2nd biggest bull market ever.
And, the winner, and perhaps the Fed's real end target for the S&P500, which would make the current artificial stock ramp on tens, and soon hundreds, of billions in monthly Fed flows, is:
- 4,616 on the S&P500 for a 582.3% return from the March 2009 lows without a 20% bear market drawdown inbetween.
At that point the Fed will be able to sleep soundly, knowing its biggest credit bubble ever has also resulted in the biggest equity bull market of all time.
So just under 3,000 more points to go.
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The "markets" will be completely broken long before then.
All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader. All sell and no buy make Jack a dull trader.
Heeeeeers Bennie!
Generational low.
You still think Haines was bullshitting you?
He died because he would not reveal who whispered those words into his ear.
Over.
Never heard that one before.
All - IN
Bernanke, Yellen and the rest of the 12 Fed stooges liked the stock market action in Zimbabwe.
Just get all that sideline money into stocks and transfer wealth. It's the name of the game for the Federal Reserve. Any sense of fiscal responibility by the Fed is long gone.
Keep printing and buying stocks until there is a currency crisis. It may be a while since other countries are following.
The Great Bernanke is simply fulfilling the Public Employee Union's pension actuaries dream of 7-8% per year returns over time. A side benefit is relieving municipalities of their unfunded pension obligations. All those potential muni defaults would make for bad press in an upcoming con-gressional election year.They are so "local," (close to home?)
So, yes, this is a massive wealth transfer from those with no pension, to those with.
What was it President Zero said after the '12 election? "We owe these Unions."
Shades of Lech Walesa?
"making it the fourth biggest bull market in history...."
Correction: call it the fourth largest stock market rise or something else, but don't call this a "market" where the Fed simply prints and the banks basically operate like a market ETF. There is no "market" and the wind down is going to be a bitch.
I tuned that noise out over 2 bubbles ago. I just concentrate on annonymous hard assets with no counter party risks. I could care less about the next bubbles they pump up.
Considering '49-'56 was the last time there was a real market, and a real economy, I doubt it.
Of course since we no longer have a real market or real economy, SKY'S THE LIMIT!!!!!
The bull market of '87-'00 ended with an easy 400% overvaluation during the Dotcom bubble. The real economy didn't merit the valuation, just like '07 and now. The growth doesn't exist for current valuations, and it sure as hell doesn't for 4,616. Unless we find Mars is inhabited with ten billion occupants all hungry for US paper.
01/04/2011 Laszlo Birinyi's September 4, 2013 S&P Target: 2,854
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/laszlo-birinyis-september-4-2013-sp-tar...
(actually good ol' Laszlo was right on the money in terms of direction given S&P was 1270 back when he made the call)
These kind of articles prove to me the top has been ticked already.
The US needs a war for that to happen, different times today, very different. A major war today, means thermonuclear, after that, no one cares what the S&P is at.
The S+P lost 57%, not 51% and the low was in march 2009, not November 2008.
"4,616 on the S&P500 for a 582.3% return from the March 2009 lows without a 20% bear market drawdown inbetween."
I remember when the market was moving up toward 2007, someone wrote, "next Stop, DOW 21,000. turned out it was 14,000, followed by 6,500.
But who knows, this time he may get it right.
"Someone" is always writing "something".
SHORT CARACAS:
"Venezuela Stock Market rose 24% Last Week -- and is now Up 454% for the Year.
The Venezuela Stock Market is now up 454% for the year to date in bolivar terms, though only 278% in official rate dollar terms, making it the best performing stock market in the world. The meteoric rise, a direct result of a significant increase in global liquidity, has helped to shoot Venezuela up the Global Happiness Index, despite the country suffering from a significant toilet roll crisis."
You need to go long, Taylor...
Is water wet?