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Fed's Bullard: Bubbles Are "Blindingly Obvious"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In a stunning series of lies, damned lies, and twisted statistics, the Fed's Jim Bullard unleashed a torrent of self-agrandizing comfort-speak on CNBC this morning. From his comment that "bubbles, such as housing and dot-com, were blindingly obvious at the time," despite Bernanke's (and Greenspan's) insistence at the time that they were not to his comments about the size of Fed Treasury holdings (and monetization) as being "average" based on some statistic, the Fed president gave himself one more out as he admonished:

  • *BULLARD SAYS FED DOESN'T WANT TO SUPPORT 'FISCAL RECKLESSNESS'

Oh no, you'd never want to do that... With an administration lying to the American people's face over Obamacare and now the even more powerful Fed incapable of the truth, what hope is there that anyone gets out of this debacle in tact.

 

On the "blindingly obvious" bubbles of the past:

Bullard today (with his hindsight glasses on): "Bubbles, such as housing, were blindlingly obvious at the time..."

 

Bernanke at the time: "U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25% over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households. "

But perhaps the most important question is about how much of the debt issued by Jack Lew is monetized by the Fed: The Fed president squirms uncomfortably at around the 1 minute mark when CNBC's Joe Kiernan asks about just how much of the Treasury's issuance, the Fed holds (and by implication monetizing) what follows is a very disingenuous bristling, namely that it is no more than during prior episodes.

 

Which is simply a lie because Bullard of all people should know full well, the Fed's holdings are expressed not in notional amounts but in 10 Year equivalents, and as the chart below shows, the line is now very steeply vertical...

And in percentage terms, is now 33% of the entire bond market!

The Fed has never held so much of the US Treasury issuance - ever - in the only terms that matter, namely 10 Year equivalents, despite Bullard's claims.

Finally on the most meaningless issue of all, the Taper:

  • *BULLARD SAYS ECONOMY HAS TO DRIVE FED POLICY
  • *BULLARD SAYS `WE DON'T HAVE TO BE IN ANY HURRY' ON TAPERING
  • *FED'S BULLARD SAYS QE HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE
  • *FED'S BULLARD SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT IS A GOOD MEASURE
  • *FED'S BULLARD SEES `CUMULATIVE PROGRESS' IN LABOR MARKET
  • *BULLARD: NEXT 2 JOBS REPORTS WILL GIVE AN IDEA OF LABOR MARKET
 

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Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:31 | 4119155 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Dear Fed, have fun jerking off in the corner that you've painted yourself into.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:35 | 4119180 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

They're gonna start getting serious by telling the truth?

 

Could work I suppose.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:39 | 4119190 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

'Bubble' is such as vague word. Are bonds in a 'bubble', even though our bond market remains a near universal go-to safe haven? Are equities in a 'bubble', even though our economy continues to show green shoots and a strong housing recovery? Not everything that goes up in price is a bubble, and people who tell you that are usually trying to manipulate you in order to sell you something.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:58 | 4119208 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

No.  Bubble is a very definite word for your head.

And we hope it pops just like the market bubble is about to.  Like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HY-03vYYAjA

THE CRASH IS UPON US!

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:10 | 4119442 flacon
flacon's picture

BULLARD: "The market is not getting cleared by normal price discovery."

 

ie, The Federal Reserve BROKE the market. 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:38 | 4119517 zaphod
zaphod's picture

This is why rates are garrenteed to stay low for a long time. Now that the FED owns the long end of the curve, rising rates impacts their holdings. We get to look like Japan now.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:52 | 4119234 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

tell me more mdb...is there a possible web site i could go to and learn so much more...is there...maybe...maybe....

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:53 | 4119235 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Are equities in a bubble with P/E of the S&P 500 at 19.3 and Shiller P/E at 24.6?!

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 15:48 | 4120023 long-shorty
long-shorty's picture

yes.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:41 | 4119197 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

 

 

*BULLARD SAYS FED DOESN'T WANT TO SUPPORT 'FISCAL RECKLESSNESS'

No, the irony is that we want to tie a yellow ribbon around the bulls ass and encierro

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:03 | 4119270 Idiocracy
Idiocracy's picture

Bullard and Kernan's conversation had a sphincter factor of 9.5.  That was some nervous-as-hell mo fo's.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:38 | 4119185 bubblemania
bubblemania's picture

Bullish

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:42 | 4119201 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Gotta love how Fed sends one of their 12 bankster stooges out to pacify the market and pump it up further.

The Fed is going to inflate stocks ever higher.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 13:00 | 4119578 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

Yea Bullard squirmed back and admitted the uncharted territory issue with failure possible.

Bond bubble is real and it would be the first time a bubble like that deflated in an orderly fashion

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 14:36 | 4119795 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

the .fed should seriously consider sending someone out that doesn't have a clue about what is going on....that way they can just convey the message in honesty (plausible deniability)...when he knows the truth and lies about said truth, it shows in his body language.

suggestion, make Obama a .fed governor too....

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:14 | 4119303 VD
VD's picture

last 20 seconds of that clip should scare the living shit out of any and all rational investors, assuming any are left...

 

put on your best PHD face, crinkle brow just enough, use a tinge of condescending tone, pausa a bit in mock-thought and you too can do the job.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:33 | 4119160 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Real unemployment is a good measure of the shit state of the economy. The real job figures will give a real indication of the damage you fuckers have done the last 30 years to the USA, etc, etc, etc

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:34 | 4119165 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


Peter Schiff: Sound Money And Limited Government = Maximum Prosperity

Peter Schiff, author, host of the Peter Schiff Show and CEO of Euro Pacific Capital joins me to discuss the Federal Reserve, the impending collapse of the United States, and all things Obamacare.

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/peter-schiff-sound-money-and-limited.html#

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:12 | 4119298 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

"Join me"? So Sufiy, are you Sean the SGT guy or are you just poaching his material and passing it off as your own?

You've been asked nicely to quit linking your blog here too. Smarten up please.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:33 | 4119168 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

QE HAS NOT BEEN EFFECTIVE unless it's true intention was to mask the fact the economy is dead and it is nothing more than life support to make the patient look like they are still alive to buy time for the 'in the club' types to prepare first since 2008 caught them off guard. Either way QE ain't about us as far as effectiveness goes.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 13:23 | 4119627 venturen
venturen's picture

The economy isn't dead....the money is just going to the WRONG PEOPLE! The crooks running wall street pay themselves huge quanities to push money back and forth for NO PURPOSE. In the old days Wall Street actually took money invested in companies and advised companies to be better entities. Now a bond trading makes $5 Million a year trading with another bond broker make $5 Million a year for NO GOOD PURPOSE. Well maybe to bankrupt Detroit. Was just reading about all the good work Goldman did in Pureto Rico to ensure they have a level of debt they can never pay off! 

 

Wall Street needs to let to fail. All government guarantees for people are fine....The FED and other backstops need to disappear. Also the pushing of money around the global to rehypothacate needs to STOP. A 1 cent per share trade tax would be a good start to end HFT trading as well. So stock are more about investing and not gaming the system...day after day. 

 

 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:34 | 4119169 Hubbs
Hubbs's picture

The FED is a snakepit of liars.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:33 | 4119170 LawsofPhysics
Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:35 | 4119173 mademesmile
mademesmile's picture

Your chart goes back to 2003 - He's talking post war - how do tresuries percentages compare say over the last 60 years?

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:35 | 4119176 dontgoforit
dontgoforit's picture

How can any reasonable person not see what this is going to do?  It's only a matter of when they choose to let it happen.  My guess is just after the next pres election.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:36 | 4119178 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Because the media is afraid to ask any tough questions and in turn demand answers these people will continue to destroy the dollar and call it growth. The Fed gets a pass especially from the financial media of CNBC and it is truly sickening to watch. I don't know how anyone can take any of the financial news media serious any longer.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:38 | 4119187 joeknows
joeknows's picture

So was the fed lying when they said there was no bubble in housing?  Did they lie about the soft landing?  Watching his confidence this morning about having no idea how to pop a bubble was jaw dropping.  The problem with his print untill we see inflation theory is that once you see it its too late.  

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:37 | 4119188 joeknows
joeknows's picture

So was the fed lying when they said there was no bubble in housing?  Did they lie about the soft landing?  Watching his confidence this morning about having no idea how to pop a bubble was jaw dropping.  The problem with his print untill we see inflation theory is that once you see it its too late.  

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:02 | 4119263 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"So was the fed lying when they said there was no bubble in housing?"

 

YES.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:37 | 4119189 schatzi
schatzi's picture

The Fed EMPOWERS fiscal recklessness.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:39 | 4119191 Dagny Taggart
Dagny Taggart's picture

In the last few months, since the retreat from the Taper Talk by the USFed, since the full outward adoption of QE to Infinity and ZIRP Forever, the world has come to conclude that the Reign of the King Dollar is over.

 

from the latest Jim Willie: http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1383336180.php

Compare and contrast with the latest from Jim Rickards: http://www.alt-market.com/articles/1802-after-qcurrency-warsq-comes-qthe...

  

 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:42 | 4119204 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

"Oh no, you'd never want to do that... With an administration lying to the American people's face over Obamacare and now the even more powerful Fed incapable of the truth, what hope is there that anyone gets out of this debacle in tact."

When you read that, Imagine Ian McKellen as Gandolf saying that in earnest disgust with corrupt power.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:46 | 4119213 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"Bubbles, such as housing, were blindlingly obvious at the time..."

Janet must not have gotten the memo.  She says she didn't see it.  But President Zero says she did, so I guess she must have without even knowing it herself.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:23 | 4119324 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

So did shithead Bullard call this blindingly obvious bubble? Nope. Fuck him.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:48 | 4119214 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

The Biggest Bubble still overpriced is the Housing Market propped up by mixture of VooDoo and massive Fed printing to Buy MBS from banks.

 

If the Fed had let this market correct like they did in the 1980's, the housing market would have recopvered by now and functioning near normal instead of this Unstable Monstronsity Bubble.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:46 | 4119216 orangedrinkandchips
orangedrinkandchips's picture

The Infamous "tail team" has your back Bullard! No matter if you utter something the robots dont like, the Tail Team has your ass once again!

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:48 | 4119218 Antifederalist
Antifederalist's picture

"The fraction of bonds held by the FED is not particularly high when compared to the post war period."

 

BBBBBWWWWAAAAHAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

You sir are a FUCKING LIAR

 

Interesting that Kernan is actually asking some relevant quesitons.  (For a change)

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:48 | 4119219 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Another story of listen to what we say, not what we do. 

More Fed recklessness and bubble making on it's way from Yellen and the other 12 head bankster stooges. By the order of Wall Street.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:49 | 4119221 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

These motherfuckers just lie lie lie.  Lying for a living isn't anyway to make a living.  How about if a lynchmob comes to see him and they tell him "we won't lynch you if you come out" then lynch him and tell him, "sorry, we lied you bitch"

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:48 | 4119222 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Green across the board this morning; on news of economic implosion.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:50 | 4119225 semperfi
semperfi's picture

Why would anyone with an IQ above broccoli pay a bit of attention to these shysters?

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 14:49 | 4119834 jerry_theking_lawler
jerry_theking_lawler's picture

And there you have it!

The vast majority of people are complete idiots! Of the ones that are capable of comprehending, only a small portion, say 30% acutally care....so, just for shits and giggles, lets say 20% care capable...and 30% care....that leaves you with 6% of the entire population that can actually understand these concepts and want to do something about it....then you have the 1% who are raping, pillaging, and promising the other 94% free stuff........its a losing battle.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:50 | 4119227 g'kar
g'kar's picture

Just put on really dark sunglasses and keep buying.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:58 | 4119260 Bearwagon
Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:02 | 4119265 g'kar
g'kar's picture

LOL

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:57 | 4119255 hangemhigh77
hangemhigh77's picture

buy vix options and root for the market to fucking crash and destroy the power base of the rich greedy elite bastards. I can't wait to see them selling their yachts at bargain basement prices like, "no one wants your yacht you bitch"  

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:59 | 4119259 moneybots
moneybots's picture

" BULLARD SAYS FED DOESN'T WANT TO SUPPORT 'FISCAL RECKLESSNESS' "

 

Then why are they?

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 14:54 | 4119848 hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Because they want to.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 10:58 | 4119261 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

His arms could not have been tighter around his chest.  Very defensive position.

I do not like his eyes.  Very squinty.  They look dishonest.  Plus, half the time he seems to have a smirk on his face.  Like I am really pulling the wool over your eyes.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:00 | 4119262 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Top 3 best answers by FED officers to impending correction(s):

1) We never saw it coming

2) We had a very strong run there, but it got hampered by the govt. shutdown

3) We were the unlucky recipients of the Eurozone problems

 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:05 | 4119277 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"FED'S BULLARD SAYS QE HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE"

 

47MILLION ON FOOD STAMPS, 4 years after a recession, proves Bullard is full of himself.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:09 | 4119290 moneybots
moneybots's picture

"BULLARD SAYS ECONOMY HAS TO DRIVE FED POLICY"

 

So why isn't it?

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:16 | 4119304 Bosch
Bosch's picture

Serious Question re Inflation: 

Is their data on inflation wrong or are they just lying about it.  

Or both. 

 

 

(Going with both, obviously, but generally curious)

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:18 | 4119311 Bearwagon
Bearwagon's picture

Their data are seriously wrong, as a simple comparison to shadowstat inflation data reveals, and yes, they are certainly lying to you, no matter what the data are.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:21 | 4119314 SunRise
SunRise's picture

Is it just me or are Bullard's lips now pursing the Bernanke Quiver.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 11:34 | 4119352 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

I believe I have the clip that sums up the FED and where we are about now...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6adb0yXGYV4

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 12:08 | 4119440 cooperbry
cooperbry's picture

At least by the end he finally admits the risk, but, that will not change anything.  They have no choices left.  They will print money and we will ultimately have a great inflation.  My curiosity is just how much longer it can continue.  Is there sufficient money destruction (bad loans or people paying off loans) to warrant continued printing ?

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 13:01 | 4119565 Seeking Aphids
Seeking Aphids's picture

Flash: Brazil, China, the Helvetic Union (Switzerland), India, and Turkey have issued a joint statement - they are issuing a new basket of currencies that includes gold. The formal acronym for the new currency will be: BITCH. They will promote the new medium under the slogan: Buy gold, buy BITCHEZ!

(my hopefully amusing tribute to the Gold bugs out there and in here......)

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 13:17 | 4119615 venturen
venturen's picture
  • *BULLARD SAYS FED DOESN'T WANT TO SUPPORT 'FISCAL RECKLESSNESS'

This is funny thing I have heard since Bernanke said housing was fine! And Paulson said Lehman was fine, And Obama said you can keep your Insurance. 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 14:09 | 4119739 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Major Shift HERE:

THE FED IS NOW TELLING ALMOST THE TRUTH??? WHAT IS GOING ON?

Now Liesman will have to be more royalist than the King himself???

That is not small news... This is big big big news....

Tightening might come earlier than thought and even if the stock market gets wacked.

 

 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 14:11 | 4119742 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

For anyone who understands econometric models and the Fed's dependence on this statistical fraud used as economic theory, Alan Greenspan's book uncovers the big lie. The Fed claims specification metrics that create a level of knowledge and control that does not exist within economic liberal art pseudo-science. President Andrew Jackson's insight is chilling. Why Americans granted such power to unelected bank officials after President Jackson's warnings? What democratic republic?

Most people who continue their education to obtain their PhD without ever working in non-education private industry are cowards. Most voting members of the Federal Reserve Board have a PhD and have never worked in non-education private industry. If there is any hope, courage will be an essential element to get America out of this mess, but courage is now not sufficient.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 14:13 | 4119744 fencejumper
fencejumper's picture

"With an administration lying to the American people's face over Obamacare and now the even more powerful Fed incapable of the truth..."

Is the author saying that the Fed is more powerful than the administration, or than itself previously? If it is the former, I concur and congratulate the author wholeheartedly for writing what is perhaps not obvious to many.

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 16:09 | 4120082 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Bullard VS Bulltard 

Mon, 11/04/2013 - 17:09 | 4120272 Miramanee
Miramanee's picture

This is all total bullsh*t...all of the talk of EVERYTHING is bullsh*t. Take a week and drive around the country. Talk to people. It's so very simple: those with wealth are happy and fine, everyone else has no idea with the f**k is going to happen. When people talk about jobs, no one spends a week on the road and exmaines these jobs: what jobs, where, in what industries, paying how much??? Here are the only relevant data anyone needs to know: 50 million people on food stamps...end of discussion.

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