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Trulia Pushes The Panic Button As Young Adults Refuse To Move Out Of Parents' Basements, Get Jobs
Well over a year ago, we first suggested that the conventional wisdom thesis for the bounce in home prices - namely a spurt in household formation - was dead wrong. Sure enough, as has been confirmed empirically, the only reason for the latest dead cat bounce in home prices has been the Fed, and banks complicit in engaging in "foreclosure stuffing." And while it was easy to deflect the topic of just what is driving the housing market (because none of the bulls would want to admit it is just another credit and liquidity-driven bubble) for over a year, with the traditional "things will be back to normal soon" fall back used every time, as time passed and none of the traditional ingredients for a housing recovery fell into place, some started scratching their heads. This came to a boiling point today, when real-estate firm Trulia, looking at the latest Census Bureau data on household formation, finally threw in the towel and rang the panic button as not only have young Americans set anchor in their parents' basement, but even refuse to get a job.
That, and the "foreclosure stuffing" of course, with 53% of vacant homes helf off the market, "the highest share since before the bubble."
Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is the summary of what Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko wrote in a note.
- Census 3Q homeownership, vacancy survey shows household formation “alarmingly slow,” vacancies “remain stubbornly high,” Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko writes in note.
- "Slow household formation number is one of the most alarming housing indicators to come out this year"
- Share of millennials living with their parents rose to 31.6% vs 31.4% y/y
- Household formation 380k in yr leading up to 3Q vs L-T “normal” increase of 1.1m
- No increase over past yr in young adults moving out of parents homes or getting jobs is “most worrying”
- Vacant homes still pose “problem” for recovery
- 53% of vacant homes were held off mkt in 3Q, highest share since before bubble
- 10.2% of all housing units are vacant, unchanged y/y, higher than pre-bubble level of 8.9% in 3Q 2001
And yet:
- Oct. Trulia price, rent monitors show asking prices rose 0.6% m/m in Oct., prices up 11.7% y/y, rents up 2.7% y/y
Why? Just ask Mr. Chairwoman. After all Mr. Chairwoman has been rumored (wrongly) to be very oracular when foreseeing housing bubbles. Like last time supposedly.
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Wow, nice job on filling the comments with a bunch of BS.
"many are on psych meds and are serious potheads". Really? How many of them do you know?
Sorry we all don't have a hidden bunker to live in and where aluminum foil hats while knowing that "we're not toast because we have canned foods and a few guns". Get a life. These people are our future as you once were the worlds future and I don't see you solving any of the world's problems. That's right, keep clutching that gun...all those problems will go away.
I read every damn comment. I am wiped out.
Just keep in mind that if you want to be in the top ten percent you need to work hard and be very ambitious, because there just isnt room for everybody. Probably only around ten percent or so will succeed.
They may not be moving out of the house, but they are definitely MOVING!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vi7YhCRaJM8#t=153
Hey babylon, you got problems and your body guards are going to need body guards, cuz the ghetto youth are not taking it no more...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaOuq0dPRvc
Why would I want to feed the Machine as you all have? You spent your entire life pumping the heart of the beast. I will not. I will not be part of this broken society. Everyone knows something is wrong...something is off but they continue on. Feeding the Machine.
These people are sad.
I graduated in 2008 from the University of Alabama, and afterwards I worked for my parents hospice as an accountant and later controller. I assisted them in selling the same company that I worked for and was unemployed from, for 8 months.
While living at my parents house, I was contacted by a recruiter out of Houston, TX, and basically my only hope, after an illfated interview with AIG, I took a contract to permanent job at another fortune 500 company in Houston.
Upon taking the position I lived out of a cheap motel in north Houston for 12 weeks.
I finally landed a position as an accountant for one of the largest, Houston based companies, and hopefully working towards an MBA.
If I can get out of my parents basement, I guarantee anyone can.
wot's the mystery, 10,000,000 US jobs moved to China, and unless they want to buy US real estate, nobody is gonna buy 10,000,000 houses, at least not anywhere near previous prices.
OK, maybe 5,000,000, but you get the idea.
Most of the markets still propped up are actually due to Chinese cash buyers ((San Fran, San Diego, NY, Seattle, Vancouver (in Canada I know, whole other animal))
Add in Los Angeles/Beverly Hills. I don't know about anyone else but I'm seeing Chinese buyers coming in with $10MM-25MM cash in their accounts looking.
was going to buy a houe til i saw the Patek ad on zerohedge...
I'm living with the old man BECAUSE those foreclosed homes are being held off market.
I would've bought in cash otherwise; cash which *I* saved from working and saving like a demon.
Renting (and the astronomical cost of it) cost me a marriage. So much for household formation.
Suckit boomers. I was a cut above the rest and moved out at 18. Boomerang to the face though!!!
Living with their parents can benefit both parties. All progress is paused until we get rid of democrat control. Nothing good will happen without a real turnover in political power. Things could well get worse before then.
Welcome to the site. Are you new around here?
Your name is very fitting. Please do not encourage perception of false dichotomies in the future.
+100
Good but... "Please do not not encourage perception of, AND PARTICIPATION in, false dichotomies presently or in the future." is even better.
And Dunce...THERE ARE NO POLITICAL SOLUTIONS. You really would have to be a Dunce...to believe otherwise!!!
- Buy a house
- Buy a Car
- lease a wife
- have kids
- buy a bigger house
- buy a "better" car
- can't keep up with debtflation/inflation
- facebook raised your kids more than you did. You realize kids are expensive. And your kids aren't anything special.
- savings erode as contract on lease for wife is renegotiated
- lose job to patel and chin because mr. smith knows they'll work for 1/3 of what you will.
- realization that you're a debt slave (greatest moment of your life)
- lease on wife is up
- work until you're 80 because you "need" this standard of living
- kids secretly wait for you to die
- you hang in there! you fighter, you.
- You decide to spend another decade sucking whatever you can out of medicare
- you die.
Really worth it.
Or refuse, escape normality, live an independent oddball life in some out of the way place on the globe, refuse to participate in anything normal, and refuse to associate with normal (boring, revolting, dangerous) human beings. Which makes us a very different sort of 0.100% (or less).
PS: If anyone reads and understands your message, yet still wants to be normal... well, I really do have to wonder how completely they've lost their mind.
I remember a time when I was madly in love with a female.
I followed her around everywhere. I spent as much time with her as possible. Then one day, while she was driving, she pointed over to some mcmansion and asked, "Would you ever buy a house like that for me?"
I stopped talking to her a few weeks later.
Once the hooker asks for the money, that's when I go flaccid.
If only every guy was so sane. Furthermore, refusing to let manipulation by girls or guys work is extremely wise in many personal ways and extremely important in the aggregate.
All I can say is, may you meet a girl who only wants to be your genuine friend, lover and partner in life. Yes, that is rare, especially in dominant cultures, but does happen. My you be one of the lucky exceptions. And as a matter of fact, the only way you have a chance is to refuse to accept any substitute... which you did. Always be certain you remain worthy (value and behave the way you want her to behave).
Honestann, my only regret in reading your amazing comments here on ZH is that you tend to post only at the tail-end of most of the threads, instead of during the USA late morning to early evening period when most of them are the most active. I would LOVE to see your insight and keen intellect more in play here. Nevertheless, thank you for what you do post, and even if I have rarely responded to you directly, please know that I have greatly appreciated your comments here on ZH.
Sorry, difficult to post when I'm asleep. I've never gotten over all those years of being hooked on astronomy, telescopes, instrumentation, observatories and all sorts of oddball observing programs that I used to pursue. And now that I'm in the southern hemisphere, far away from lights and usually under clear skies, I just can't get enough of watching the center of the Milky Way pass almost directly overhead, or the Magellanic Clouds, or Omega Centauri, or endless other wonders... so the night sky is my usual diversion when I need a break.
More important, I really shouldn't take the time to post at all, because I'm doing crucial work that is more important than anything I could ever hope to achieve here in ZH. Sadly, few people want to honestly consider reality, or viewpoints that are more than trivially outside of the mainstream, so those of us with serious insight and wisdom in one field or another seem destined to be the only ones able to benefit.
But thanks for the compliment. :-)
PS: What I really should do, and would do if I wasn't busy working on the ultimate project (and solution to all the troubles for a few of us), is write a book or three. Frankly, I'm not sure it would help very much to put down everything in one place (like a book), organized in optimal order to ease comprehension, because most modern humans have developed an unwillingness or inability to consider anything except immediate, first-order connections - and only some of those. Which makes them unwilling and unable to acquire wisdom or understanding on any but trivial questions.
Maybe we'll run into each other someday, probably somewhere in the asteroid belt, and we can laugh at how the endless insanity on earth used to seem important.
My friend, when he leases cars, never allows the lease to expire. He runs over the alloted mileage every single time.
Yet the company always send him new offers. So he never drives a Car that is over Two and a Half Years Old.
One can apply this principle to Girlfriends or Wifes (but at that time it is generally far too late...). Why allow the lease to expire when you know that the time is approaching to trade them in?
When a car starts to rattle, shake a little, shimmies, and whines, then you know that "Trade In Time" is approaching, Well a Girlfriend will give you the same types of warning signs. You just need to be aware.
You can listen for, hear, and feel these signs approaching.
For instance when you have to tie a 2X4 to your butt to prevent you from falling in...it...it is just much too late. Wouldn't you agree?
I do not know about you but I like my ride tight and firm. I want to feel Traction and control. Loose rides just do not get it.
Of course there are other signs. Girlfriends will start making whining sounds. You may hear whines as, "We need to buy a house.", You need a better job.", "We need to settle down.", "I want to have a baby.", and...by far...the one that is most indicative of a problem, "Why don't we get Married?"
Generally these noises and whines start out subtly and infrequently at first. But as time progresses they increase in Frequency and become much louder and a real annoyance.
Before the problem becomes too much of a problem it is time to Trade in for a Newer Model.
You do not marry your car, do you?
Renew the lease BEFORE IT EXPIRES. It is the least expensive way to enjoy your ride.
The notion that high prices for homes helps the economy is one of the most completely insane, but also most widely unquestioned notions today. But the exact opposite is true, which would be obvious if humans hadn't had their brains destroyed by authoritarian thinking from parents, schools, churches, media, etc.
To understand, just observe the obvious.
case #1: low home prices
If home prices are low (as they would be if top-down artifice was eliminated), homes would be so inexpensive that many parents would buy them outright and give them to their kids as wedding presents. Alternatively, children of poor parents would only need to save for a few years to save enough to buy a home.
Then, for their entire lives, their entire monthly income would be available to purchase goods, education, home improvements, start businesses, and so forth. With such massive quantities of wealth continuously flowing into goods and goodies of every kind, people would enjoy a high quality of living while the economy would remain very healthy and robust.
case #2: high home prices
If home prices are high, the way they are now, parents cannot even begin to afford to give their kids a home as a wedding present. And the money the kids can save in the start of their working lives is barely enough to pay the down payment that burdens the rest of their lives with endless debt and the huge waste of wealth called interest payments (on their debt).
Furthermore, the debt-based culture that creates obscenely high home prices also creates obscenely high prices for college education, which ends up adding even more to the debt burden for the rest of their lives.
With huge monthly principle and interest (debt) payments for mortgages, education, credit cards and whatever else young adults get suckered into, very little wealth remains to buy other products. As a result, the banksters get rich (since most income is misdirected to them), and the rest of the economy suffers. Furthermore, kids are driven to purchase less expensive foreign-made goods, since they barely have any money after monthly debt payments to service their debts. Which just sends more jobs over seas and worsens the economy further.
-----
Only a completely clueless human being would imagine in their wildest dreams that paying huge high prices for the most expensive items in life (home and education) would equate to a healthy economy --- either personal or national or global.
Yet that message is spewed out at such extreme volume and frequency by the predators-that-be banksters and their media liar-apologists, that virtually everyone ends up repeating this BIG LIE. And this certainly is a big lie --- it is monstrous!
The whole scam is so transparent! The banksters love high prices for homes and education more than anything else, because those are the expenses that drive young folks to succumb to borrow money from them at interest, which they can create at zero cost to themselves (simply type on a keyboard), and literally enslave those young folks to an entire life of working to pay the debt and plenty of interest (for which they have produced nothing, and earned nothing).
Any young person today with half a brain will do absolutely anything to avoid being sucked into a life of slavery. The two most obvious elements are: flat-out refuse to borrow for any purpose whatsoever, and avoid taxation (either by earning and spending very little, or by moving to another country where tax burdens are tiny).
Therefore, to see trends like these only means a few kids are not yet completely brain damaged, nothing else. More power to them, and let's hope they avoid every other activity that strengthens the predators-that-be and predator-class.
+1,000!
The path to better jobs is for
many inescapable debt for life.
This
http://strikedebt.org/how-far-to-free/
would be centric to the kids first, of
course, but to the nation, second.
A nation's goal should be strong real
wages and a strong currency reflecting
a people's worth.
Currently higher education is centric
to lending and oligarchs' purposes.
The Environmental Equivalent
Of The Expanding Need/Expanding
Technology - Doctor/Patient
Focal Point (As In Health Care,)
Appears
Being This.
http://aosis.org/
Please See:
http://aosis.org/new-research-on-sea-level-rise/
Privatizers/monopolizers like it
that way--better sell-outs.
Fewer jobs serves them well too.
Also no collective bargaining--
excellent for them.
The only reason some of those kids
don't look for work in Copenhagen
is they can't afford the passage.
http://carlyscafe.com/index_nf.html
http://www.care2.com/causes/did-police-really-have-to-tase-an-11-year-ol...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2477235/Police-using-high-voltag...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5H8izrhFNy8
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings
http://goo.gl/1rbmXq
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=U.S.+Vietnam+collaborate+in+nuclear+power
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS6wdSe1ops
Besides the artificial color and flavor, and fructose,
in frozen desserts, this is what's in America's kids'
treats:
http://www.multiurl.com/la/Also_Some_Kids_Sent_Into_Inescapable_Debt_For...
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=species+that+consume+their+own+children
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=species+that+consume+their+own+children
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=species+that+consume+their+own+children
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGMwNe9WWmE
Many opposed the above.
We were powerless because both parties serve
privatization.
Privatization Should Only
Exist At The Sufferance Of Public Regulation.
Where The Public Exists At
The Sufferance Of The Privatizer, That's Feudal.
Hubert Humphrey's "trickle down" and "where's
the beef" were measures of benevolence peeking
through what was then degrees of privatizing the
profits, socializing the cost. That arrangement
has become far more institutionalized and
draining recently, though.
Computers, cloud software and GMO's are being
sent back by international customers, and today
this happened to an internet marketing firm.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=dxm&inst...
After considering the recent fundamentals,
is it too early to consider as also being
involved the possible/likely
ending of net neutrality?
That's the twisting of privatization screws.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhGwb7WQWb8
Gene McCarthy And Bobby Kennedy were from my youth.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GIrHNuiQ6fQ
For today's Pied Piper, only the likes of Jill Stein/ Cheri Honkala would represent
a new DP wing.
Every so often one or other nation takes one step
backward to take two forward.
Today's kids insist on wringing the vomit out of the U.S.,
and they're going to have their way.
Hey kids, you can launder your drug money in real estate. Contact your Real-Tore!
It works for the big fish, why not for the little fish?
One of the first things that should be done to help this situation is to reform the student loan and repayment systems. Its a huge burden piled on top of all the other huge burdens!
All of this is because of student loans. Student loans eat up everybody's savings, ruins their credit and puts young people in a state of fear. Worst is if borrowers don't pay then taxpayers do.
I have an apartment, but my parents have suggested that I move home in order to "save more money" so I can get out of default on some loans and pay off the others quickly. Sorry, not going to happen. I'm not sacrificing my freedom and economic progress because the politicians are corrupt and give into every whim of the banksters.
Buy silver and only sell it to the banks to cover loans when they have stopped manipulating it.
Hey, without that:
"Worst is if borrowers don't pay then taxpayers do."
it wouldn't be privatizing the profits and socializing (just) the cost, instead of prioritizing education and enabling.
And then no matter from what sector
the smug guest,
MSM financial TV pretends they don't
know it.
Those Outlets'
Parade Of Almost Exclusively
1%'ers Are Oblivious To The
Economic And Biologic
Wake Left In Their Paths.
Democratic Processes And
Equality Of Voice Access,
And Communication, Are
"Anti-Fragile."
The world can be a difficult place and the sooner the kids get out there and fend for themselves the bette they (and their parents) will be in the long run. Necessity is the mother of invention and the kids will figure out how to survive.
Given that yhe Wal-Mart / McJobs don't pay shit: and that many required government subsidies / to make a 'living' wage; doesn't it then follow, that living with mum & dad and not taking a benefit actually saves the government money and hence tax payers.
To which then we go back to the government bailing out multinationals for not paying a reasonable wage.
True this would cause higher prices at Wal-Mart, but that's not our problem.
Strange how people wont work for free or shit wages...