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What Is Twitter's Real Value: You Decide With This Interactive Calculator

Tyler Durden's picture




 

With Twitter's pre-IPO price range rising by the hour and its oversubscription levels growing exponentially - matched only by the volume of "why you must buy Twitter" discussions on CNBC, Reuters created the following simple interactive calculator to enable the retail investor to 'judge' whether buying it out of the gate is the best use of your 401(k)...

The calculator estimates a value for Twitter. The key variables are the balance between US and non-US comparable companies and the balance between two different valuation methodologies.

 

US comparables are Facebook and LinkedIn, while non-US comps are Sina and Tencent (both Chinese). The valuation methods are price-to-forward-sales and price-per-monthly-user.

 

Additional variables include an IPO discount and the proportion of new shares that will be issued...

Click image for interactive calculator

 

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Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:02 | 4123371 atomp
atomp's picture

On a long enough timeline...

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:04 | 4123388 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Survival rate for US aircraft carriers about to collapse to zero in the Mediterranean sea, as Russia's aircraft carrier killer enters the region:

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2013_11_03/Russias-aircraft-carrier-killer...

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:23 | 4123447 game theory
game theory's picture

Did you watch the video? That link shows a ship that looks a little...underwhelming. I'd put my money with a US carrier battle group over that bucket.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:18 | 4123643 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Control room looks 50 years old...be surprised if it can operate at sea for more than 14 consecutive days without stopping for maintenance.

Try again.

And next time come with a quiet stealthy sub...that is a carriers biggest fear. 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:54 | 4123796 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Twitter will reach $480/share by the end of Yellen's 1st year as Fed Head, and yes, I'm totally cereal.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 16:37 | 4123978 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

@suzysaysso has gotta be worth something north of $2/shr...

btw, link NSFW

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:25 | 4123469 Popo
Popo's picture

Back when I was doing serious Twitter marketing, I used several server hosted applications tweeted and re-tweeted across around 12,000 accounts.   That was small-potatoes.   The big guys are doing much more volume than that.  

Even lowly social-media PR people run multiple auto-post, auto-adder software like TweetAdder to get followers.  Trouble is of course, that almost all your new followers will be other people's bots.

And then there are the countless services which will sell you 1,000,000 followers.   Those followers are of course, also just fake accounts run by bots.

Which raises the question:   How many users does Twitter have?    If Twitter openly addressed these issues, they might have some credibility.  But they don't touch these issues... which is a massive, 10,000lb red flag.  They are hiding it because they know it:   Twitter doesn't have half as many users as they claim to... or even 25% ... and maybe as few as 10%.   

Would sitting on that info be considered fraud?  Would it be a jailable offense to sit on that info heading into an IPO?  

 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:40 | 4123531 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Insider twading.

 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 16:11 | 4123869 Dewey Cheatum Howe
Dewey Cheatum Howe's picture

Sounds like the same issue in the old days with IRC and botnets being hidden on servers to be used for DDOS attacks and file servers among other things. Nothing changes since those botnets also were used by servers to attract real users by making them look busier than they really were.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 18:53 | 4124575 artless
artless's picture

Twitter is as twitter does.

Gotta hand it to the guys who built it though. They are running the same scam that was run during the tech bubble of the late 90's and all the dumbfuck lemmings are lining up again to buy the worthless piece of shit that - and this is what one should always remember- PRODUCES NOTHING.

There is your "value".

The stupid is strong in this one.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:27 | 4123480 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

Should be called a "papermache" maker, as the papertiger is very reliant on carriers.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:02 | 4123374 peter4805
peter4805's picture

Fuck you Mr. Yellen...

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:22 | 4123455 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

that's Mrs Debtfire.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:02 | 4123375 Ahmeexnal
Tue, 11/05/2013 - 16:58 | 4124063 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Wow... He also had the guy who filmed the tape offed (or did the guy just die mysteriously, I can't remember) and the guy who tried to sell the tape, a former associate of his, was arrested for extortion.  See.  So it was the extortion that was the crime, not the crack cocaine business...  Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:04 | 4123386 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It doesn't work. I can't get a zero valuation. 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:07 | 4123402 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Probably can't get a true zero value....I mean, I'm sure they've got some tables and chairs and some iPads laying around.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:12 | 4123419 knukles
knukles's picture

 

 

 

                  listen!  a singing birdie!

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:40 | 4123524 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

as long as the canary is chirping its ok.....  when it falls off its perch eye glazed...

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:23 | 4123465 game theory
game theory's picture

Twitter is worth $500T. I mean, if facebook is worth north of $100B, then all valuations for everything on this planet need a few more zeros.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:06 | 4123396 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Market has no intention of being distracted by pesky fundamentals...

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:05 | 4123397 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We got this new guy, Mr. Yellen...he's gonna fix the crops and burrito toppin' shortage!

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:24 | 4123467 pods
pods's picture

With water?  Like, from the toilet?

pods

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:44 | 4123542 redpill
redpill's picture

BRAWNDO, the Thirst Mutilator (it's got electrolytes!)

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 18:23 | 4124477 edifice
edifice's picture

Ow! My Balls!

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:10 | 4123406 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

Fuck all.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:12 | 4123415 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Twitter and Facebook are the ultimate websites to allow a narcissistic extroverted society to exhibit themselves and insistently talk. 

These two sites will eventually be the equivalent of TV and Telephone in their pervasiveness.   

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:15 | 4123435 knukles
knukles's picture

Some time ago we had a buncha relatives and relatives of relatives in town for an unfamily get together... well, not really.  A buncha folks to whom we're related were coming to town for one of the area's annual activities so, we went out with them several nights.

One of the most telling experiences was that the young-ins would all sit at the dinner table not talking to anybody but tweeting away like mad.  Absolutely no human interaction.
One even took a pic of her dinner and sent it to a friend.
He fucking dinner.
It was some chicken enchiladas, FFS.
T'was strange, my friends.... very very strange

Plus, no major barrier to entry in this business.
Ummmmm   .....

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:27 | 4123464 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Plus, no major barrier to entry in this business.

No barriers, but humans are herd amimals.  So, the first product or dominate product will generally win.     The semi-psychotic drone humans will use whatever item is most liked by the other semi-psychotic drone humans.  

There might be no barrier to creating another Facebook or Twitter but real problem will be creating something that's similar in functionality but "better enough" that the semi-psychotic drone humans want it.   The cost doesn't matter, as it's already "free". 

At this point, unless somebody figures out a way to transmit smell or orgasms, Facebook and Twitter are the high point of transmitted narcissism and extrovertedness.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:32 | 4123494 pods
pods's picture

Facebook is the Myspace of 10 years ago, which was the geoshities of 5 years before that................

The only difference is that we are pretending that the latest incarnation of "meville" is a multi billion dollar company.

Hmmm, MEville.com...............

brb

pods

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:47 | 4123552 adr
adr's picture

I'M IMPORTANT DAMMIT! MY MOMMY TOLD ME I'M SPECIAL. EVERYBODY CARES ABOUT WHAT FOOD I GAVE MY CAT TODAY. MY UNCLE CAN'T GET THROUGH THE DAY IF I DON'T TWEET HIM WHAT I'M EATING FOR DINNER.

I HAVE 985 FACEBOOK FRIENDS AND 250 TWITTER FOLLOWERS. YOU WISH YOU HAD THAT. YOU'RE JUST A HATER.

- signed every single worthless twenty something 300lb tweeter living in their parents basement.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 17:03 | 4124102 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Yep, Geocities.  And even then there were 1000+ impersonators. 

Its not  a question of whether it was a good idea, or a useful service, but what is it worth today?  The brand has lost all value, the idea has been copied... 

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:13 | 4123424 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

What the fuck do they sell again? Gossip to NSA(taxpayer expense).

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:13 | 4123428 uncle.bigs
uncle.bigs's picture

I've put in for 5,000 shares on Fidelity.  I'll be lucky to get 50.  

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:21 | 4123453 pirea
pirea's picture

The same day I found that twitter is going public, I cancelled my account

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:25 | 4123471 kchrisc
kchrisc's picture

I would say give Twitter a value of 'infinity' then multiply that by the intrinsic value of the dollar, $0.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:36 | 4123511 Billy Sol Estes
Billy Sol Estes's picture

.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:41 | 4123533 adr
adr's picture

The best thing about internet ads, is that you don't even have to look at them. In fact the more ads you put up, the more people try to block them so they don't even have to worry about accidentally seeing them.

Tell me how this is worth billions of dollars again?

Every fucking ad on TV has a twitter hashtag now. So you spent 30 seconds on TV trying to sell me on the idea of typing in a stupid hashtag? You just showed me your product, why do I need to go online and read what can be said in five seconds during your commercial?

Its fucking insanity.

Like Domino's making an ad showing how inept their employees are, they can't take an order over the phone without screwing it up so you better order online. WTF? You think I want to order pizza from a place that can't even understand a person saying "large pepperoni pizza"?

 The Twitter IPO exists because underwriters will make money for doing pretty much nothing. In fact that is why the entire stock market exists.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:18 | 4123642 Zer0head
Tue, 11/05/2013 - 14:54 | 4123577 moneybots
moneybots's picture

What is Twitter's Real Value- to those selling the shares to the public?

Zuckerberg got a billion dollars.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:20 | 4123655 Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

Twitter does not exist. It is an amalgam of individuals, each of whom is at any point in time capable of leaving the party. When all are provided with a big enough incentive to leave, the party will be over.

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:33 | 4123703 starman
starman's picture

 im sorry what is cnbc ? is it a trade a symptom or disease of some kind?

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 15:56 | 4123803 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

Who cares what the real value is..

Just BUY BUY BUY!!

Tue, 11/05/2013 - 16:43 | 4123999 youngman
youngman's picture

Most people are just worried that it goes Ok the day of....who cares about the Price...its the technology of the NYSE that is on show...if it goes OK...the price will go up for a few months until the dirty details come out and they still don´t make any money....other than their insider stock sales....

Wed, 11/06/2013 - 02:40 | 4125913 pitz
pitz's picture

Bullshit like that calculator floating to the surface makes me want to short the US stock market.  Or alternatively, just load up on gold and head to the bunker.

This won't end well.

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