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October Mortgage Purchase Applications Collapse To Decade Lows
Applications for mortgages for the purchase of a home plunged at nearly the fastest pace in 9 months this week, dropping to their lowest since the Christmas week 2012 - and lowest since February 2012. Now down over 20% from their May highs, the plunge is a problem - since as BofA's CEO noted earlier:
- *MOYNIHAN SAYS HOME PURCHASES, NOT REFI, BOOST THE ECONOMY
So just another indicator that all is not well in the 'economy'.
What is perhaps most worrisome is that this is the lowest level of mortgage purchase activity for this time of year in a decade.
Chart: Bloomberg
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M0ar houses - http://hedge.ly/1dCQc5f
we dont need no water let the mother fucker burn!
This could be related to the Fannie/Freddie treadmill stopping during the gov't shutdown. Just sayin
Everybody knows that you don't need a mortgage when you are paying cash, silly.
Or
Ohhhh, you thought we were holding rates down for you!
Fannie and Freddie originations were not affected by the shutdown - they are not government entities, they are private companites under conservatorship.
More likely the decline is due to all-cash buyers. I believe ZH had an article a few weeks ago showing that all-cash transactions were half the market in August.
"There's Never NOT Been A Better Time To Buy A Home, EVER, Including The Present Time, Which Is Even MOAR Better-er"*
*Message sponsored by The National Association of Realtors, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of Mortgage Brokers, National Association of Title Insurance Underwriters, National Association of Bankers, National Associations of Everyone With Their Hand In The Housing Pie Including All Unions, and last, but not least, Your Friendly Tax Assessor's Office.
There has never been a better time to
punch a realtor in the face.
Realtors work hard & possess a highly technical skill set.
Realtor to prospective buyer: "And this is the kitchen pantry {opens pantry door}. You can store canned soup, boxes of cereal, and other items in here."
Most realtors I'm familiar with are excellent form fillers, closing the deal on their knees with a little organ music.
Most realtors I'm familiar with are excellent form fillers, closing the deal on their knees with a little organ music.
Realtor to prospective home buyer: "Did I mention my commission is 6% of the selling price & that this house is a steal at the full asking price? Trust me. This is my area of expertise, yo."
The most obvious sign that Realtors are overpaid for their services is the massive amount of lobbying money they spend in DC. You don't spend that kind of coin to protect an essential service that is being provided at a fair price.
That is exactly what my realtor told me. No kidding since the house had just come on the market she told me that offering $10k below asking would be an insult and we should go right in at the full asking price to make a deal. I laughed and asked for the $10k. These people just run a scam. When/If I sell this house I am doing it on my own.
We were looking at rentals today and the agent showing us the home said that all realtors were idiots who couldn't do anything else for a living. For once I agreed with a realtor!
Decade low? The decade is two years old. WTF? Just a little hysterical. I know the numbers are not good, but jeez...
So... you wanna buy my house? Great deal. Market is RED HOT baby. You snooze, you lose.
IF you READ the article, you will find it states a DECADE low for THIS TIME OF YEAR! That isn't hysterical it's a mathematical FACT.
meh, BTFH... Buy the Fucking House...
Let me see what will be my health insurance first.
Meh, does one still need a wage to get a mortgage? (Apparently not with mark to fantasy accounting)
$8 an hour can do miracles these days
5% down (and 3% of that can be a "gift" from a parent/relative) and ability to fog a mirror, and IT'S YOURS!
Banks offering mortgages with only 5% down payments
By Les Christie @CNNMoney November 5, 2013: 11:30 AM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2013/11/05/real_estate/down-payment-mortgages/index...
$8 per hour part time plus $25 per hour in Odickhead subsidies and you're golden. Buy buy buy
Ben and Janet will have our backs..
Bullish. Just a momentary pause until all those burger flippin' mouth breathin' 0bama voters move out of mommy & stepdad's house and start buying fixer uppers.
Wonder if Moynihan is vested in continuing QE....
Potential Customer: How has business been? I hear that home prices are going up. Perhaps I should sell?
Realtor: Business has been very, very busy. You SHOULD sell!
Me: I need a fucking drink.
Until the housing market stops being a get-rich-quick ponzi filled with specuvestors driving prices above fundamental levels, this will continue to occur.
Yes, in otherwords, until the gov't and their crony banks get out of it.
When homes are priced back to 1980s prices the real estate market might become more lively. Real estate agents are so crooked they have to screwed into the ground like a corkscrew when they die.
I wonder what will happen when everybody who's qualified to buy has bought and they start wanting to sell for any reason and then . . . omg 2007 redux . . . let's just lower the standards for qualifiying! It worked before; tens of millions of new debt slaves and we got bailed out! Hell, let's just do the whole thing all over again! Killer!
Your theory requires the concept of there still being Yuppies willing to become debt slaves for the sake of their ever expanding egotism!
Not gonna happen with the Millennials so deeply entrenched in Mom & Dad's basement or barn and not even wanting to buy a car now!.
Welcome to the New Normal of much much lower expectations.
Lower qualifying standards you say?
http://themortgagereports.com/12901/banks-loosening-prime-mortgage-standards-helocs-too
All recoveries require nowadays is free Fed money supplied to hard refining banking personnel. Those trying to finance hard equipment assets to small business will attest THERE NEVER WAS A F. NG. RECOVERY
It's a good thing that congress just passed a bill allowing the banks to go back to playing derivative roulette game. The housing market will re-inflate in no time. And no need to worry, because it's different this time.
"We avoided the deflation by creating the biggest one ever!" Why am I long euro again? Go long independent Texas and start and start buying their currency? At least I'll know where to go to fill up my gas tank. I'm done calling equity tops but I would laugh if the thirty year suddenly headed to 1 percent here. I find myself fatally attracted to the the incongruity of it all.
Kind of hard to qualify for a mortgage when your full time job just got cut to 29.5 hours per week and your healthcare costs tripled... Just sayin'...
there's a government subsidy for that.
Who needs a mortgage when you're paying all ca$h? In other words, when you're laundering money, why bother with a mortgage?
these houses are being paid for 1000 at a time - for "cash"
Homesteading is still legal in Alaska. They say moose burgers get old after a while though.
and the women.
when you're laundering money, why bother with a mortgage?
Every now and then someone brings up the notion that cash purchases are being made from laundered money. A cash purchase simply means there's no mortgage. Urban myth #1548: drug lords and crooks walk into escrow offices everyday with cash-filled briefcases to purchase homes and everyone looks the other way!
Other silly urban myths found on this forum:
- The rich pay little-to-no taxes! Make them pay their fair share!
- The rich get lots of write offs, up to 100%! Eg., sales = 100K; payroll/expenses = 100K; Total net income before taxes = $0; Payroll/expenses = 100% write off, therefore business owner paid no taxes! How unfair!!!!
- Real estate is an asset class that always appreciates in value, yet the IRS allows it to be depreciated! What a loop hole!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-10/money-laundering-exposed-key-co...
Economy
E con o my
E con o me
E con of me
con of me
The con of me. The great american conofme.
here's an example of real estate buying by complete idiots.
I was following a foreclosed home on zillow and the home was projected to sell for $130,000. It gets listed at almost 200k and gets an offer almost immediately. Then rejected. Within 24 hours another offer. Real estate agent (affectionately known as a whore) slapping backs and high fives. It was listed six months ago prior to foreclosure at $150,000 and still couldn't sell.
I guess buyers just don't read or do any investigation. This fool just ate $50,000.
That is sad but true for many homeowners who can't wrap their minds over this simple truth -
YOUR HOUSE IS WORTH WHAT SOMEONE ELSE WILL PAY FOR IT (i.e. "the market" which may be unicorn shitting skittles depending on where you live)- not what your whore realtor says or what you need to get out of it.
location, location, location,
zillow don't mean shit,
$$$ talks and bullshit walks,
that is all you need to know
lastly, for young guys
buy all the rental homes you can for a 15 year fixed, when your
25, that way your paid off at 40 years old and retired
set for life, ...
Why purchase, when you can confiscate?
http://rt.com/news/israel-palestinian-homes-demolish-323/
I see Muslims going "ballistic" if someone insults their faith or its founder, and I see Jews doing the same. The consequences are either life-ending or career-ending. For these reasons, NO one dares to fuck with them. What about Catholics, what about Christians? Nope, they're fair game, it seems. No outrage on their part. Not a fucking peep. Even when their priest get beheaded.
Do Catholics or other Christians have their own "ADL", their own "AIPAC" --> ACPAC? Or have all people of honor and decency been bought, bullied and compromised into servitude?
Anyone, anyone? [crickets]
Re: Anyone, anyone?
The reason the Christian West is livable for non semi-psychotic imaginary-friend believers is that the Christian West - at some point in history - realised their immaginary-friend was just their own brain's bullshit machine talking.
So, the down side is the remaining Christians with the chattering immaginary-friend don't have the power to behead anybody. They'd like too, but - well - they can't.
MY FUCKING GAWD i have to call you people on this,
I live in a MUSLIM community, and these are salt of the earth people, they only care about their children,
they don't smoke or drink, only have kind word, and alwawyys smiling, ..
the simple fact is the west is a bunch of stupid hairlips, and baby-jeebus was the son of a whore, .. ( virgin birth my ass ),
only one reason that ADL demonizes the MUSLIM and that is to rob them, ... go to LA and see a 'joo' community, blood suckers and money and nobody smiles, ... no fucking comparison,
or go to israel and see how they live, just a prison for rich to keep out the poor ( palestine )
but you go to any real muslim community, in asia and you will see happy children and people living the good life,
only when the WEST comes to 'colonize' and FUCK the
muslims do you see a problem
I must, with my limited experience, agree. However, I hate all religions.
In the "real Muslim community" of Egypt, 91 percent of women had their clits cut off when they were little girls.
Happy days!!!
there is no way in hell i am buying a home or investing in anything but physs until this hyper-repothecated disaster waiting to happen reaches its next phase.
who knows until how long that will be.
I looked at the chart closely because I'm trying to sell two (rental) houses myself, and this year looks about the same as the others on the chart for October (except 2009). I don't think its that bad. There is a surge after Oct 31st, so I'd like to know if it surges or drops during the next 2 months. If it drops against the other year surges, THEN I'd write this article. Maybe I'm missing something?
My underwater house was enjoying a nice rebound in price(still way underwater) but has now rolled over and dropped 3k over the last 30 days. Looks like the dead cat bounce may be over in my neck of the woods(Northern Nevada).
My arizona 'land', has dropped 50% in the last 10 years, and appears to be going down another 90% ,...
Problem is you got to go where there is 'water', ... I think its a given that all these places with no ground water are fucked, ... that only leaves the north-west, ...
mid-west water is gone, south water is gone, and the east coast is tomorrows civil-war battle ground, ...
buy cheap forested land while you can in Idaho, Washington, or BC canada ,...
California is completely fucking fucked, except north of
Shasta ( /sarc )
Canvas tents are highly under rated.
They seem to have a good time in Hell on Wheels ...
Floor boards are a must.
Unless having foo stamps and an $8.00 / hour job with subsidized healthcare and WIC checks can all be used as collateral for a down payment...this trend will most likley continue downward. Who the fuck are they kidding? Like this is supposed to suprise us anymore? I just had an MBA from NCSU check me out in line at mother fucking Sam's club! 50 million in poverty can't go wrong.
did the person in front of you scream "give me my money, bitch!"?
We need a food stamp program for mortgages so we can buy MOAR!!!!!
It depends on the location. In the Midwest, I'm looking at a 1,500 sf house with basement that needs updating - straight out of 1970. Comes with 30 wooded acres, well, septic, electric and pond. Asking $150k - that seems like a fair price as its less than rent at $700 a month AND you get 30 acres! Bonus: the nearest town is 10 miles away.
all-inclusive tornados, shitty weather, and nothing but a low-end job market?
sweet.
If you depend on an employer, slim pickins. If you are an entrepreneur and have your OWN business, different story. I happen to like 4 different seasons. Tornadoes are why basements were invented. Hey, it works for me. Some people like Vegas - some like Alaska. I like Missouri.
Well, ya got me beat acerage -wise, but check this out:
I've been looking for land for over a year and finally found 3 1/2 acres (wooded and meadow) with a river boundary (with fish) for $200 a month rent. Crazy as it may sound, I jumped at it, and paid the guy 2 months upfront and will pay another 4 months in advance next week when we close the deal, which is, a 2-year lease, with option for two more 2-year leases at the same price.
It's in a moderate climate, has utilities on site, is very suburban but secluded, with natural boundaries on the two largest sides (stream, railroad tracks (defunct) and woods.
OK, math whizzes. The guy wanted $35K cash, but, since I'm new to the area, took the rent deal instead. Were I to borrow the whole $35 at 4%, my payments would be $258.89 per month. So, I don't own the land, but have right of first refusal on any cash offers, which the owner says he is not pursuing.
Being in a decent climate and me being of the farmer/gardener ilk, I'll be spending most of my time outside. There are NO restrictions on the land, and I can build up to four residences if I so choose. Taxes are ridiculous, like $50 a year, which the owner pays.
Looked at mobile homes and campers, found quite a few for under $1000 in the area. Small, but, I live alone and will probably erect some out-buildings anyhow.
Thinking I was going to spend upwards of $10K for a decent piece of arable land, I'm looking instead at $2400 a year and an $800 camper. My friend has a condo within 15 miles with an extra room in case of unforeseen developments.
Wadda ya think? Did I make a good deal? (BTW: I run my own business as well, so I have steady income, plus, two rental properties). The land is in South Carolina.
Gonna get me a dog and a couple of guns. Yes, I can hunt on the land and there's plenty of wildlife, I'm told.
Land in south carolina, you have my sympathies for the following, hurricanes, ignorance, water pollution, crazy christian types
Well...at least there WAS wildlife until your guns scare them all away. The only relevant question is babes. Is there easy access to fertile babes?
Heard this morning on the radio via a giddy newscaster, home market continues amazing rebound with prices going up everywhere according the the NAR.
Well if the NAR says the housing market is great, it must be so!
> doesnt understand seasonality
The exact same securitization FED bailed TARP is underway for the banks that found other suckers... These sockpuppets will do anything to turn a trick... NOT CASH BUYERS IN ANY WAY.... Audit FED and stop the TBTF/TBTP scamers. FED reserves to banks is kicking the can down the road..... these crony capital clowns are going to get there A$$ kicked by Mr MARKET as the asset is marked to market instead of QE. http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-11-06/blackstone-lures-investors-t...
"The market for rental-home securities may grow as large as $900 billion, assuming 15 percent of annual home purchases are conducted by investors and 35 percent of those and existing rental-home owners turn to the market for financing, according to Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc. Banks have been the main source of financing for new property landlords such as Colony Capital LLC and Blackstone, which has spent $7.5 billion on about 40,000 houses."
Get this, from the article linked above:
Blackstone’s Invitation Homes borrowed more through yesterday’s deal relative to the value of the houses serving as collateral for the bonds than recent residential-mortgage securities, according to data from ratings companies. The cushion to cover interest payments is also smaller than in deals tied to apartment complexes. Monthly rent checks from 3,207 properties will be used to service the $479.1 million of debt.
Five years after defaults on home loans packaged into securities helped trigger the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Wall Street is turning to bundling assets into bonds to help institutions buy and rent out properties. The transaction comes after Federal Reserve stimulus to bolster credit markets contributed to property gains exceeding 40 percent in some regions where Blackstone has been investing from California to Florida.
OK, kiddies, math time again. Those 3207 properties cost an average of $149,392, not including closing costs, title searches (we're positive they all have good, marketable titles, right?) and renovations. But, just on the margin, a 30-year mortgage on a $150,000 home is $716 a month. Add another $200 a month (I'm being generous) for taxes and an average of, let's say, $100 a month in repairs (reasonable, since the Blackstone guys won't be doing the work themselves, like most landlords I know), and you're up to $1016 a month.
Figure these homes will rent for an average of $1300 a month and you've got about a $300 cushion. But, but, but, if, on average, these homes are vacant two months out of the year, you're down to an average gross rent of $1083. I won't go into details - I'll leave that to better math students, but a $67/month margin ain't much. OK, times 3207 properties, it's $214,869 a month or a little over $2.5 million per year, or, roughly, a 5.2% return.
Now, the tenants may be top-notch and stay in the houses without need of repair, and there could be very little turnover, the taxes could go down (LMAO) or a lot of other stuff could make this investment a winner. Oops, forgot about INSURANCE! My bad. Well, there goes your profit margin.
I'd love to read the reps and warranties on these bonds, probably 90 pages long. What could go wrong? PT Barnum is dancing in his grave.
"MOYNIHAN SAYS HOME PURCHASES, NOT REFI, BOOST THE ECONOMY" The hedge funds securitized 40,000 houses... Moynihan F#ck You and the Ken lewis, Terry Murry and the Providence lawyers you rode in on. Lewis could have said no to Countrywide and marked the securitization to market.... Spinless immoral idiots thanks the primary dealers....
"The Rothschilds, and that class of money-lenders of whom they are the representatives and agents -- men who never think of lending a shilling to their next-door neighbors, for purposes of honest industry, unless upon the most ample security, and at the highest rate of interest -- stand ready, at all times, to lend money in unlimited amounts to those robbers and murderers, who call themselves governments, to be expended in shooting down those who do not submit quietly to being robbed and enslaved." by: Lysander Spooner(1808-1887) Political theorist, activist, abolitionist Source: "No Treason #6" (1870)
Who cares...
it's all BULLISH!
I have to laugh, my GF's daugher was buying a low end house in Tacoma, the appraisal came back needing some things fixed. The daughter was prepared to pay those herself to keep her loan (low interest). The seller let the 30 day agreement to expire and go back on the market. The daughter was furious because of the inspection fees ect and the loan they got on the follow on house is 3/4 of a percent higher.
Anyway, the seller pulled out July 2. The house remains on the market for $2 K less than the sale price last summer. Plus the cost to carry a house 5 months. I hope it never sells.
Seattle/Tacoma market is outta control right now.
I'm going to wait until the next recession to see how much prices drop.
Portland market as well,
What people FAIL to mention is the great white flight from the great white flight from LA and barrios of USA in general to the great white homelands,
While real-estate sucks in much, aspen, bend(oregon), pdx, sea, ... are fucking kicking ass, ...
Always think about where the action is-is, and its because
everybody is selling in the areas full of ethnic tension and moving to the all white homelands, ...
FACT
Just you nattering nay-bobs of negativity wait! Super bowl will be here sooner than you think and the real estate market will take off like sputnik for the spring selling season. Oh yes it will!
Tannic sarcasm, with a balanced sweet/salt bouquet with a hint of raspberries and oak.
ALL bullshit all the time in the hot areas like
ASPEN, mountain colorado, wyoming, ... portland, seattle, bend-oregon,...
Real estate is going crazy, and people are PAYING FUCKING CASH, from selling elswhere,
The great white flight to the Pacific Northwest has been going on for 30+ years, and in the last 5 years has gone astro,
Those who bought homes in 2007 in BEND-OREGON where there was 90% drop, are now seeing a 500% return, ...
Whiners and fools, ... talk the talk, but there is real money being made by white-flight, and their paying with cash, which makes this entire fucking OP useless to reality.
Um, with a 90% drop you would need a 1000% increase to break even. Dolt.
Okay, this is just funny, and I'm enjoying it.