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Tesla Momentum Runs Out Of "Gas", Enters Bear Market
Having been "on fire" for most of the year - managing a simply remarkable (Venezuela stock market-like) 472% gain from the start of the year to September highs; it appears the momentum stock of the year is 'running out of gas'. Now down over 22% from its highs, Elon Musk's experiment in exuberance has entered a bear market. Indices most levred to the momo mayhem are struggling this morning also with NASDAQ leading the 'charge' lower. At 3-month lows, TSLA is now up 'only' 335% YTD...
maybe - as @ECantoni noted, replacing ORCL with TSLA in the NASDAQ 100 in July was not such a great idea after all...
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Now that most who are ever going to buy a Tesla have bought one, what's going to happen next quarter?
They'll have lots of unused carbon credits to sell?
Tesla short is all about the convertible bond offering. That is when Goldman got out at 184.50. At least that was the conspiracy that I shorted on.
Wait til the Tesla S owners realize that charging it costs more than filling up a 1992 Suburban with power prices going to head north as capacity is getting pulled from a lot of RTO's as coal plants shut down.
...And gas prices heading below $3....
Cool product, but stupid stock- nothing new here.
And the fact the LiOn batteries are no different than the ones in your smart phone which means capacity diminishes quickly over time. They'll likely need to be replaced in 5 - 7 years at a cost of $30,000. TSLA is maybe a $10 stock...
Cost isn't really an issue when they are driving a status symbol. However, fads run their course. See Hummers.
I still like it when my dates end with a hummer
All batteries have this problem. Deep discharge cycling or "battery memory" as its called
in the business.Electric milk floats work out just fine , but a top speed of 25mph on a Tesla
might not sell.The problem becomes really apparent about 18 months down the line.
Tesla is burnt toast,I'm sure they know it as well.Just glad I don't work in their warranty dept.
Nickle Iron batteries do not "have this problem".
Somebody posted somewhere that it was a car company based on powering a car with laptop batteries. Supposedly Elon Musk has so calculation to hedge for the owner that the batteries will be worthless in 5 to 7 years.
I know soemone with a Prius who said over time that they start to decay.
Depends on the usage.If you never discharge the battery below 50% of
full(new) capacity, they will last a long time.After every deep discharge cycle overall
capacity drops in a vicious circle.Eventually a 'fully charged' battery will not even move
the vehicle.
I am not sure how Toyo handles it on the Prius. The Japanese seem to have done a decent job. They have been on the road for a while. Ford's technology is supposedly pretty good too.
On the Tesla, the wags have a name for it - "bricked."
I assume it means that if you discharge it then the car is as useful as a ****ing brick.
Toyo have a voltage regulator that changes the sine wave
to square .I patented the original design back in the 1980's using
mosfets.
It helps but doesn't sove the overall problem, it just slows the decay
down.Gets it past the warranty. period.
With Tesla they just don't seem to give a shit about battery conservation
from what I've heard on the grapevine.
And it's gone...
Inconceivable.
If I was dumb enough to put money into this 'market' and knowing what
I know about batteies and electric vehicles, I would be shorting this pig
all the way down to bankruptcy court.Only a matter of when ,not if.
Agreed. This is going to zero unless they get bought although that won't happen unless they are being bought out of bankruptcy.
Did Fisker get pushed into bankruptcy? Someone was trying to buy the assets. That car was nice looking. You will only get big companies like Toyo, Ford, BMW, VW-Audi tinkering with hybrids with a small gas engine and hybrid. Ford and Nissan have full electrics too plus Ford has a plug in hybrid.
They can afford to screw around with this. You need much bigger breakthroughs in batteries and I just don't see it for quite a while.
I don't like Elon Musk. The Tesla S looks like a Kia Optioma, Mazda 6 or even the new Chevy Malibu.
All Elon Musk has to do is draw some obscure diagram and make a company of it, though an IPO and investors would be rushingto buy it.
This is typical Silicon Valley BS. Come up with some idea from a golden boy, get some people to get behind it and get taxpayers or suckers on an IPO to bailout the idea.
I loved that Elon Musk tube transport idea he came up with instead of high speed rail (also total BS) for California. His high speed tube idea came out right before those 2 Tesla's caught on fire. This insprired a lot of confidence of being sealed in a tube at incredibly high speeds.
Every time I hear "Elon Musk" I can't help thinking of Champ Kind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oC47fy0M8QE
You just need to buy, Taylor...
Now cue the bottom and miraculous recovery of the stock price. The ZH effect: set your watch by it, Kevin Henry does.
Afternoon algo ramp up.
Elon Musk needs to create an IPO for funding. Seems like IPOs are doing very well. Loads of money trying to buy up anything.
Like a buying frenzy.
free Tesla and Iphone to anyone thats on fed paychecks
You swerved into something I have said before. The O companies that support the police state get their stocks ramoed up. Tesla, AMZN, FB, ORCL, GOOG, AAPL. You support the regime and your stock gets bought by the algo robots.
so ... that's why iwm is tanking ...
Musk might find out he's a pioneer (even though I know elextric cars aren't exactly new)
The trouble with pioneers is their backs tend to be a magnet for arrows!
Maybe the smart bet here is the next man, the man who buys the bankrupt assets....
Would you buy a Tesla electric car for 62,000 Dollar or a much better BMW electric car for 42,000 Dollar.
Looks like BMW has its nose in the front. The demand for their new model is much higher than expected.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-14/bmw-mulls-boosting-electric-car...
Elon said that if he were able to produce 500k cars at the nummi plant, it would completely outstrip the world's lithium ion battery supply by a large margin. He said something would need to happen, like some mega factory building them.
That means all batteries produced plus some, so no supply for cell phones, computers, tools, electric bikes, or other cars.
So if 500k Tesla cars require more than all global battery production, how much would 1.2 million cars require?
How many battery companies have gone bankrupt in the past few years? How is that possible if there is that kind of demand on the horizon?
Let's hope the Martians were building stockpiles of lithium ion batteries.
from "nowhere" to huge in just a few months. "no comment" on a stock price is the standard fare at least. Some of those "space capsules" might have to be put on hold...so we'll see how the company responds now that it's finally being tested as the world's first (and to my knowledge only) networked "car company."
The stupidity is basing your technology on a metal that is extremely rare (Lithium). There is virtually no domestic supply. You could however base your technology on two of the most common elements on Earth, Nitrogen and Hydrogen. NH4 (ammonia) is a fairly good fuel, can easily be stored in not very high pressure tanks. It can be burned in current ICE engines (though the compression ratio may need to change a little) and produces nothing but N2 (80% of air is N2) and H2O. You could get rid of the expensive catalytic converters now used. The only problem, is that in the case of an accident you may need an ejection seat type system to get the tank out before NH4 is released as it is quite poisonous. Crumple zones of aluminum honeycomb could protect the tank as well.
I am still having trouble with the 90 mile driving range. I know they show 180 miles on their website, but you have to get home too.
Nothing grows to the sky, valuations will go up and down, but Tesla's success brings the megatrend for years to drive:
Powered By Lithium: Tesla vs. BMW: Battling for Electric Car Supremacy
We need more electric cars and now they are coming onto our streets. Tesla Model S demonstrates the technology and BMW i3 can cut more into the urban mobility market. Tesla Gen III - mass market electric cars will be the game changer. Electric mobility can be the only way for China's ongoing urbanisation in the future and they are moving fast to secure the technology and strategic materials for electric revolution now. http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/powered-by-lithium-tesla-vs-bmw.html#
Tesla is coming out with a low cost car in 2016. If the shit never hits the fan and I was in the money I'd get in on Tesla. Gas is going to be a fuel for the rich. I think battery tech is going to get way better.
Personally, I love the idea of electric cars (though I am a RWD V8 Mustang/Camaro/Challenger/Corvette lover at heart). And I think the Tesla S is a great car (I absolutely love the huge tablet center console).
BUT, I detest the fact that they were given tax dollars PLUS this is a pure luxury car. It starts at over $70K delivered before government rebates (which I also hate). Making a great electric luxury car is one thing. Making one for the masses that is $20-25K with a 250 mile range - that is quite another.
As soon as this QE-pumped up economy collapses, so will Tesla sales and it's stock, IMO (unless they start building much cheaper cars).
All this stock booming says is that luxury cars are in AND that major manufacturers refuse to build a good electric car. Why? Simple, they hate them since they make a ton of money on parts and their dealers make a TON of money and parts and service - both of which are in far less demand with all electric cars.
That's why manufacturers love hybrids. They cost more and have almost all the parts and service requirements of regular cars plus the eventual maintenance/replacement of the electric propulsion system.
The talking heads on Bloomberg and CNBC were shocked that this stock could actually go down but I get the feeling that they think that way about any stock.