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Vice Index Suggests Limp Holiday Sales Growth
If ever there was a symptom of the instant gratification meme of the new normal (why wait when you can have it all now?), it is 'vice'. That is why Southbay Research's Vice Index (composed of prices paid, volume, and frequency of sales in liquor sales, gambling, and prostitution) is so worrisome, as WSJ reports, "it's signalling that consumer spending growth is about to drop and stay subdued for a few months." Southbay's Zatlin notes that measuring this kind of discretionary spending provides a window into the true state of the economy - which fits with recent macro data on retail sales (and forecasts for the holiday season as hope of the 'second-half' recovery fade quietly into next year.
Looks like it’s not going to be such a hot holiday season for liquor companies, casinos, and prostitutes – at least according to the latest reading of the “Vice Index.”
The index – a concoction from SouthBay Research’s Andrew Zatlin measures actual spending levels – yes, on vices – and uses the numbers to show where the economy is headed.
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“It’s signalling that consumer spending growth is about to drop and stay subdued for a few months,” he wrote in a note to clients.
The index measures spending on things like prostitution, liquor sales, and gambling; it measures prices paid, the volume and frequency of sales (Mr. Zatlin doesn’t disclose exactly how he tracks these). Measuring this kind of discretionary spending, he says, provides a window into the true state of the economy.
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The vice index seems to jibe with recent government data. The September retail sales report from the Census Bureau showed spending had slipped from August, and was up about 3% from a year ago. Along with recent reports on business spending, it all points to a pretty languid economy, and certainly not the “second-half recovery” that had been bandied about back in the spring.
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When people stop spending on hookers, blackjack, booze & blow, you know they're hurting.
As to prostitution, it is a supply issue. The demand is fairly constant, however more women are selling their services to make ends meet. This results in downward pressure on prices.
:-)
Banging ho prices down?
Drooping demand curve.
I always know when the Strip is hurting. I got offered 7 free 3-day casino stays in the last 2 weeks. Mrs. Rainman don't like me go there. Good thing for them only a direct hit asteroid can hurt them in Macau.
Steve Wynn claims he'd have to shutter Wynn LV if not for Macau.
What happens if Macau gets unlucky? Ramen noodle comps?
Like getting annexed to China ..? Unpossible..well there is that Cuba experience back in the day.
Actually I bet the demand is pretty elastic. Prices go down and the demand will go way up. Overpriced in the US for sure.
Things will pick up in the third half of the year... after Christmas....
Well, there goes one of Grandpa's maxims: no matter how bad it gets, men always find money for beer and pussy. Considering he was in his 30s during the Great Depression.....
Yes, the US Dept of STATISTics can create a composite metric using the 3rd half or 5th quarter ensuring that all stats are rosy for the sheeple yet sluggish enough for the FED's continuous printing operation.
I am now contracting with the NYC Waste Treatment plant downstream from the FED to have them track turds that have either a FED Governor or Bernanke's DNA signature. If any of them look tapered I will know that the real SHTF is going down.
Plus 1 for the 'turd index'.
Heide ho
There appears to be a lot of "fuck Obamacare cuz it fucked up Christmas" going around.
Tell the kids no Christmas, because the president is forcing mom and dad to pay more for even worser' r healthcare.
Suits the lying fuck...
FUCK YOU BARRY YOU LYING FUCK............
Then explain to the kids why mom can't tuck them in at night any more and why she's always going out for the night in a mini skirt.
"Cover me you limp dick faggots." - Tropic Thunder
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7w1OelsJB9A&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D7w1O...
I dont know about that, everywhere I turn I am being offered a credit card... there might be one more solid holiday season to be put on credit cards before everyone is maxed out.
Don't listen to the haters. Consumer spending is set to skyrocket. Inversely proportional, of course, to the decreasing quantity and value of the products they are buying. Consumer spending in zimbabwe is up trillions YOY, and their country is bursting with opportunity.
Limp Bizkit - My Way
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn8vzTsnPps (4:55)
Does the limp mean we are not f#cked?.
How many years are we from the day when the ads on websites like this and others say,
"Hot American girls want to meet you"?
Photos of obese lazy turds waving their Obamaphones might be required to comply with the Phillipines' Truth in Advertising laws.
Prostitution is booming in North Dakota. Tell the gals in Nevada that the truckers up there have extra money.
My own poon oversations is that demand is clearly down right now, prices are down but there is a clamor "It's so quiet". Well since O'care will be taking 200/month more from everyone that could be in the market something gets 200 less/month.
Imagine trying to sell boats or RV's right now.
Or the strippers getting on the job injuries because the customers are tossing quarters instead of bills.
"Limp." I see what you did there.
Problem with prostitution is on the supply side... plenty of demand here! It's the fear of going to jail mixed in there too.
I see some pumping up in the vice index as the proles start slurping more AMFs into the holidays and slip some hard earned coin into the sluts. . i mean slots.
I work in the gaming industry in Montana where gaming is very small potatoes compared to Vegas. Casinos may have a max of 20 video keno/poker machines per license. Max bet is $2.00. Max jackpot is $800.00. So small time stuff. Point is...most of our customers are low/moderate income types who now are broke. The "responsible" gamblers have pretty much quit. I now see them rarely, if at all. Business sucks for the small mom and pop casino operations. The casinos that operate as part of the big chain gas station/convenience store operations will get by, for now, since their overhead is subsidized by the other operations.
In Florida it is mostly Social Security and Disability payments hard at work.... Rarely see anyone under the age of 50 in the gambling joints