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How High Will TWTR Stock Go? Ask Mr. Fed Chair(wo)man

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Because it's not about valuations.. and it's not about rational expectations... we present the only metric necessary to project TWTR's price into the oh-so-predictable future...

 

Correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint.

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

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Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:45 | 4132137 bearish1
bearish1's picture

Anyone here buy TWTR?

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:46 | 4132144 Debtonation
Debtonation's picture

I don't even have a TWTR account.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:53 | 4132170 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Meanwhile, what surprises me is that the correlation is only 92.9%.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:12 | 4132190 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I could easily seeing earnings for Twitter equalling 3.3 cents USD per twat over the near term.

That should amount to an approximate forward P/E ratio justifying a rough valuation of Twitter @ $1,375.15 per share by mid 2014.

But I'm basing this on value investing metrics, and not BernYellen's balance sheet, so that may be too conservative a valuation - something to keep in mind if you're more aggressive/MOAR beta chasing...

p.s. - compressed eel fart fuel is the commodity of the future and where I'm heavily investing despite Twitter's impeccable & transparent model.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:18 | 4132248 pods
pods's picture

I'd tweet that out but I think that is above the amount of characters allowed.

Also, I don't have an account.

pods

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:22 | 4132265 TaperProof
TaperProof's picture

twitter's character limit is depressing , its the main reason i dont use it.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:35 | 4132295 Manthong
Manthong's picture

..the choom was great, but the blots here now are freaking awesome.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 18:00 | 4132650 Godisanhftbot
Godisanhftbot's picture

 hint, tweet 2x to get your genius across.

 no need to thank , me

 

 #duh

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:23 | 4132266 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Use the Idiocracy 'tard translator. Way less than 140 characters that way...

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:23 | 4132267 Stuart
Stuart's picture

ZH should post the same graph with Japan's balance sheet too.   This is where the money is coming from. 

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:57 | 4132385 Manthong
Manthong's picture

so which doomed ecnonomy will own most of the crash?

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 20:03 | 4133083 Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

Whats up with people putting their nickname after their post?

This isn't a telegram where you need to specify sender....

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:12 | 4132238 max2205
max2205's picture

Is the future bright or what....or did a nuc just detonate? 

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:18 | 4132247 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

What is the correlation rate between the Fed's balance sheet and the Employment participation rate as seen in this chart?

 

http://dareconomics.wordpress.com/2013/11/07/around-the-globe-11-07-2013/

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:48 | 4132357 CPL
CPL's picture

I was thinking of opening one just so I could close it.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:48 | 4132147 Hippocratic Oaf
Hippocratic Oaf's picture

Fuck you Bernank

Fuck you Yellin

Fuck you especially king of all douche Cramer

 

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:48 | 4132154 slotmouth
slotmouth's picture

Not me, I've been too busy shorting Tesla.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:21 | 4132257 ItsDanger
ItsDanger's picture

LOL, I am short as well but was a little hesitant given recent bounce back to 170s.  But vindication has arrived today.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:50 | 4132160 uncle.bigs
uncle.bigs's picture

I'm long with a stop below the opening.  Just riding Shalom's wave of liquidity.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:59 | 4132195 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  Anyone here buy TWTR?

No, but people in my cubicle dwelling have been talking about it all morning.   So, somebody is.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:59 | 4132197 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

GOT SOME TRTWQ...ONLY .10/SHARE....but that was weeks ago...I should check on it...is it true that the 'Q' signifies bankruptcy? hope not...

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:59 | 4132198 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I wish I had. I love their chicken sandwiches and tacos.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:47 | 4132148 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

here? prob not. Out in the rest of the world? A shit ton of people did, and still will. 

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:49 | 4132157 unrulian
unrulian's picture

i don't tweet...i do however enjoy woodcock hunting...i wish i had a picture of a few birds hung up for all to see

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:59 | 4132194 Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

Isn't woodcock an oxymoron?

edit: never mind, I see why. The former requires a latter.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:16 | 4132240 Manthong
Manthong's picture

In my case it is a priori.

The predicate is contained within the subject, but that's just me.  :-D

(oh,, and it does make shopping for suitable thongs a bit challenging)

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:50 | 4132158 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Let me be the first to put $1000 price target on the sumbitch.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:00 | 4132200 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Fed wants to beat the DOT COM bubble where PE ratios where  out of this world.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 21:34 | 4133438 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Dr. I'll gladly match it.              Milestones 

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:52 | 4132169 BadDog
BadDog's picture

Tell me why you want to be a trader. Models and bottles. Make it rain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85lpWoESHUM

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:55 | 4132181 slackrabbit
slackrabbit's picture

To infinity and beyond........just like housing......just like Facebook.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:57 | 4132185 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Looks like the Fed will pump this bubble to an ever higher plateau.

Wouldn't be surprised to see more and more people jumping on and riding.  

Fund managers will just keep adding to their positions.  

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:57 | 4132188 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

I do not disagree. I told you to buy but you resisted. The profits could have helped you offset your new Obamacare costs but Noooooo. Don't listen to Bingo Fuel.

Over.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 15:59 | 4132196 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

FED's current problem is stabilizing the bubble, not inflating it.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:05 | 4132217 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

IF THERE ARE "GRID PROBLEMS" IN THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS, PLEASE DO NOT WORRY.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:10 | 4132225 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

It seems a shame that the exchanges won't let companies use the sign for infinity in their stock symbol.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:08 | 4132227 1835jackson
1835jackson's picture

It's a fad stock. Only good for shorting. #shortingtwtr

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:21 | 4132261 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's got the magic un-shortable shield bestowed on all nascent equities.

Cerealously.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 21:37 | 4133443 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Truth, fun word!                 Milestones

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:10 | 4132231 Seal
Seal's picture
“…..In the meantime, an index of German share prices (1913 = 100) rose from 126 in January 1918 to 531,300,000 in September 1923, and to 23,680,000 million in November 1923 amidst extremely high volatility. (In dollar terms, because of the currency depreciation, the same index (1913 = 100) fell from 101.55 in January 1918 to 2.72 in October 1922, before recovering to 39.36 in November 1923.) The extremely high volatility of the stock market is a typical feature of hyperinflating economies.”  ISSN 1017-1371, The Financial Implications of Reflation, Dr. Marc Faber, ‘Gloom, Doom and Boom Report’, June 23, 2003, 
Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:30 | 4132286 q99x2
q99x2's picture

That's that software I've been talking about.

How you like me now.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:35 | 4132305 walküre
walküre's picture

No TWTR here, no even FB. Who cares how high TWTR goes? It's a classic P&D. Markets are rolling over here and now and today. The top is in for this year. Rate cuts aren't cutting it anymore.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:40 | 4132325 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Anyhow, The FED is buying up all assets. The debt used to do os is owed by the United States of America and the assets are owned by the FEDs member banks. At the end of the cycle it is not importand to the banks if the dollar is worthless because by then the banks will own everything. Money will be irrelevent to them but important because everyone else will owe their futures to them.

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:41 | 4132329 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

I see this going beyond $100 in a year. This is .gov/HS's  real time surveilance on steroids.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 16:44 | 4132339 The Heart
The Heart's picture

It prolly will not matter about any of this kind of stuff real soon. With the american head puppet's approval rating down to about 9%, and the banter and rah-rah from the warmongering ZOG media loud mouthing parrots of dis/misinformation spewing the usual tripe and bovine excrement to go after innocent Iran, all coupled with the banksters purposely set-up to crash the economy agenda, and finally the fact that EVERYBODY knows how corrupted and criminilistic the babylonian govt is, anything can happen any day soon.

The insano anti-America haters are doing all they can to further their babylonian plans. The isreally firsters and all the other assorted mung-ugly blippity-idiots are pushing this warmongering agenda for the profits of said country, and the military industrial fascist/communist/nazi/socialist scag empire of dust. The bankster puppet masters created them all to conflict with each other so they can clean up the profits after all the countries have killed each other off. It has worked twice so far after the two major world wars. Everybody knows this.

Take a listen to isreals head rottenchild puppet doing what he was created to do so well. Rant rant rant...war war war! We must have war for the population reduction agenda of my masters the rottenchid banksters who want to kill us all off after we start the third world war. All as perfectly planned of course. Blah blah blah...war...war...war..."historic proportions"...moar war so we can profit from it...rant...war war war. It is all the same old garbage warmongering for the profits of a few. We can surly expect a govt sponsored isreally Event any day now. Just like 9/11 and the boston bombing were. Here is some concerning blah-blah ZOG news below.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/173744#.UnvKLyclIg9

The problem with another False Flag Event boyz and girlz of the evil govt, is EVERYBODY KNOWS world-wide WHO will be responsible for ANY kind of terrorism in the world. Hunting down the terrorist perpetrators of the COMING FALSE FLAG EVENT will be easy to do. They will be in Wash, DC, NY, and in isreal with their glove-puppet masters mainly operating in England and France. Everybody Knows!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F8QM3tjkTE&feature=related

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 17:05 | 4132409 walküre
walküre's picture

TWTR #gravityisabitch

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 17:09 | 4132427 RubberJohnny
RubberJohnny's picture

I've got my plastic girlfriend and a handful of horse tranqs, I don't give a shit about how high twitter goes.

Thu, 11/07/2013 - 17:18 | 4132464 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.safehaven.com/article/31717/the-ecbs-tough-balancing-act-bubbles-vs-deflation

Today, a small group of central bank chiefs can meet in private and wield unprecedented power over global markets, economies, and wealth distribution. They are held accountable to the ruling politicians that in most cases have no respect for the principle of sound money. Instead, in Europe, the UK, Japan, the US, and elsewhere, central bankers have become intricately linked to monetizing government debts, and financing the expansion of the welfare state. As such, disciplined and independent central banking, a cornerstone to any hope for sound money and credit, has been relegated to the dustbin of history.

Central banking, - ostensibly designed to combat high levels of inflation and promote economic growth, while overseeing the stability of the banking industry, has instead, morphed into technocratic planning boards that are constantly involved in rigging the value of the financial markets. Their principal modus of operandi is to encourage risk taking in the local stock markets, through massive injections of ultra-cheap liquidity. However, the result isn't better economic conditions, but rather the expansion of massive bubbles in various financial markets. In turn, central bankers have widened the wealth gap between the owners of equities, and the rest of the struggling population whose wages are sliding backwards, and is increasingly seeking out assistance through welfare programs.

Historically, the value of the stock market reflected the dynamics of the local economy, and would influence the social mood of the populace. A stock market that is booming would signal an up-and-coming economy that would be followed by increased business investment and the creation of good paying jobs. Rising share prices boost the fortunes of about 10% of households in the country, and triggers a greater propensity to spend for goods and services - otherwise known as the "trickle down" effect. Therefore, keeping a constant vigil on the behavior of the stock market, - has become the raison d'être of central banks.

In earlier times, stocks traded on the local stock exchange used to track or even anticipate the nation's business cycle. But that reliable role as a leading indicator began to seriously break down after the financial crisis of 2008. Since then, because of the hallucinogenic effects of "quantitative easing" (QE), - stock markets are no longer reflections of the health of the local economies or forecasting mechanisms of the business cycles. Instead, they are just slices of ownership in specific companies that are unreliable gauges of anything but the underlying strength of the companies they represent, their dividend payments and buybacks, and the schizophrenic mind-set of the traders who buy and sell the shares.

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