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Guest Post: Can We Support 75 Million Retirees in 2020?
Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,
All financial schemes for retirement are misdirections of the real challenge, which is creating enough real-world surplus to support 75 million retirees.
I received a number of interesting comments on my recent series on the insolvency of the Social Security Ponzi Scheme:
The Generational Injustice of Social (in)Security (November 6, 2013)
The Problem with Pay-As-You-Go Social Programs: They're Ponzi Schemes (November 5, 2013)
There are two questions here:
1. How can we sustainably pay for 75 million beneficiaries in 2020?
2. Are there sufficient resources, labor and capital to support 75 million beneficiaries in the manner that they were promised?
The first question presumes there are limits on the creation of 'free money," and the second presumes there are limits on the surplus generated by the economy that can be devoted to supporting retirees.
As a quick primer on Social Security: the program, paid by payroll taxes on earned income, has two funds: one for worker/retirees and survivors of workers, and another for disabled workers and their dependents.
As of 2011 ( Annual Report of the Trustees of the Social Security Trust Funds), there were 38 million retirees, 6 million survivors and 11 million disabled and their dependents drawing benefits from the program. The latest numbers from the Social Security Administration (SSA) show 57 million beneficiaries as of 2012.
Since there will be 53 million people 65 and older in 2020, and the number of survivors and disabled are rising as fast or faster than the number of retirees, we can project the program will have around 75 million beneficiaries in 2020, seven short years away.
(Given that the number of people choosing to retire early at 62 rather than wait for full benefits at 66 is exceeding SSA projections, this estimate is probably conservative.)
Reader D.L.J. proposed a solution that many believe would be sustainable: dispense with payroll taxes, illusory trust funds and borrowed money entirely, and just print the money and transfer it directly to retirees:
Now set aside your traditional view of 'how the system now works'.
What if each of the 50,000,000 retirees received a monthly check for $2500 for $30,000 per year. It doesn't come from a trust fund and it doesn't come from a working member of the workforce; it comes directly from the USTreasury. There are no bonds issued to raise the money, no interest to pay and no maturity schedule--just money credited to the accounts of the seniors.
Now, what if at the same time, there is no payroll tax to fund the, well, trust fund.
The 50,000,000 retirees would/could spend their $30,000 each into the economy to support the production of goods and services of 50,000,000 active workers providing an average contribution to income of $30,000 each. Of course the workers would actively purchase goods and services from one another as well.
Over the years, I have received many similiar proposals from readers, the key component being the issuance of cash by the U.S. Treasury rather than the Treasury borrowing money on the bond market via selling Treasury bonds.
The conventional economic concern with issuing freshly printed "free money" in this way is that this expansion of the money supply would soon trigger inflation that robs every holder of the currency. Expanding the money supply debases the existing stock of currency.
Since such a proposal has never been tried to my knowledge, we don't have any direct experiential data on the unintended consequences of direct distribution of newly created cash on a large scale. I suppose if an equivalent sum of money were destroyed or removed from the money supply, inflation could be controlled, but destruction of such a large sum of money elsewhere would have negative consequences for those whose capital was destroyed.
Perhaps there is some dynamic here I am missing, but to the best of my knowledge history suggests that inflating the money supply is only sustainable if the production of goods and services rises in analogous fashion. If the surplus generated by the economy remains flat, inflating the money supply leads to a depreciation of the currency being printed, i.e. inflation or theft by other means.
I conclude that this idea, however appealing, boils down to a "free lunch." In my view, a nation can only spend what it generates in surplus from labor and the productive investment of capital. Priting money is a short-term shortcut that raises the apparent surplus being generated but does not expand the actual surplus.
What if the surplus being generated simply isn't large enough to support 75 million beneficiaries in the manner that they were promised? Correspondent Philip C. explains that the money for retirement is the least of our concerns: it's the actual stuff needed for living/consuming that may be insufficient:
You point out correctly that there is no trust fund for Social Security payments. However it is easy to show that even if there were, the system could still not function. The reason is quite simple: the goods and services that retirees require (food, energy, medical, consumable goods, recreational, entertainment, etc.) in practical terms cannot be stored and therefore must be provided by the current working population.
Even if retirees had their Social Security pensions it wouldn’t do them any good because the stuff they needed would be scarce and the good old law of supply and demand would price them out of the market. What young people would tolerate working in such an environment with such an onerous load?
It seems to me that the root of the looming disaster is not so much the Ponzi aspect, despicable as it is, but the unrealistic expectation that people can actually retire at age 65 (or whatever age) and continue to consume resources and the productive output of an ever decreasing working population.
Trust fund or no trust fund, the working population will be burdened by retirees; an important question is how long will they put up with it?
The social disruption will be of major proportions. Retirement ages will have to rise (they are already programmed to rise here in Australia in a couple of years) and expectations will have to be rationalised or there will be enormous stresses in our societies.
This seems to get at the heart of the matter. Money is after all a claim on real-world resources, goods and services. Printing or borrowing money into existence does not create more resources, goods or services to exchange for the money.
In this sense, all financial schemes for retirement are misdirections of the real challenge, which is creating enough real-world surplus to support 75 million retirees (not to mention the other 75 million people drawing government benefits). Census: 49% of Americans Get Gov’t Benefits; 82M in Households on Medicaid.
Printing or borrowing money are both attempts to get a free lunch; alas, there is no free lunch. We can only spend what we extract or generate in surplus, i.e. what's left after subtracting the costs of production, labor and capital.
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Old, fat, and stupid. I hope the Chinese and Latinos don't team up and invade, or we are screwed.
time for the soylent solution
I forgot helpless, entitled, divided, and self medicated.
All those new Latino citizens will save the system!?
Shit would have hit the fan by then that the retirement crisis won't be that big a deal. It would just be another rat shit to the dung pile.
The Chimex invasion in far down on the list of worries.
“No one expects the ChiMex Invasion! Our chief weapon is surprise, fear and surprise; two chief weapons, fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency! Er, among our chief weapons are: fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, and too many single young men."
You're way behind the curveball on the Latino invasion.
What? And who is going to change our diapers?
Re: What? And who is going to change our diapers?
I wonder if the young people have explored the exciting field of domestic servant?
Classes are being offered now. My TBTF bank offers low low financing.
Your children or grandchildren as they should if you still believe in the family unit first, state second. Those millenials living in the basement not working are your home healthcare aides when the time comes.
You can always take you SS fiat and live in Mexico or any other country we like to trade with. Or can you?
I'm thinking that inflation is going to heat up everywhere, in which case you end up with the same non-existent buying power no matter where you might go (can be offset somewhat using a proper hedge).
Re: proper hedge
Bring me a shrubbery!
So if Chinese and Mexicans interbreed will they be known as Mexichans?
Re: So if Chinese and Mexicans interbreed will they be known as Mexichans?
Don't know, but the resulting food would be interesting.
Are you kidding? your ass will burn and you'll be hungry in an hour. how is that a good thing?
Do you know what the bad thing is about Eastern European food?
You eat it, and three days later you're hungry again.
"Are you kidding? your ass will burn and you'll be hungry in an hour. how is that a good thing?"
ROTFLMAO !!!!! That's the funniest thing I've read in some time ! Thanks for the laugh. <chuckle>
Let's go with Chixicans...
No and obamacare will whittle that number down by a bit.
The solution to all this was in the movie: "The Purge". It was a political statement vs. science fiction
Not any More!and its not bush`s fault
If we get to 2020 first.
(scribbling on bar napkin... + this, - that, carry the 2, blah, blah...)
Nope.
No wonder they started tapering food stamps. They are boiling the frog one degree up at a time.
Jindal is suspending EBT to the thieves who over extended their bebefits when SNAP went down. Some will lose bebefits forever (in Louisiana).
NOOOOOOOO! They will cross over the border here into Texas and we will be stuck with them. Send them east damn it!!
Yeah fuck it just print it. Or better yet a new shiny trillion dollar coin for each new retiree. Yeah that's the ticket.
or how about trying to keep them alive as they start dying off??..............pig in a python
Stupid ass gubmint should have never demonized hard drinking, smoking and drug taking. Next is trans fats. Look what they've done....bankrupting everybody ! It's taking forever to get these humans off the planet.
We need more SS donors and fewer SS takers.
MOAR trans fats and nicotine!
My mother in law started smoking at the age of 14 and has probably been eating trans fats since they were introduce(Crisco shorting, margarine) and after having half her lung taken out(Medicare paid for) is still living and getting her SS into her 70's so those poisons are not as effective as they could be.
This, in essence, is the problem. Before the 1960s,people suffering from acute cardiac arrests just died. Cancer therapies were minimal. Diabetics were few, primarily type 1. Now you have a population that is slowly dying using massive amount of drugs, surgeries and therapies to keep functioning. Don't blame the trans fats and cigarettes. Their culling methods have been nullified by those who wish to change the harshness of nature to something benevolent.
Miffed;-)
Don't fret. The elite, aka, the "smartest" amongst us, have benevolent culling methods. You read about how many people were misdiagnosed with terminal cancer in a recent article, right? And finished off by the treatment.
True. Notice as well the elites, percentage wise, seem to escape the benevolent culling more often than the serfs that serve them. Some are deemed more expendable than others. Not for being more valuable to society by having skills or talents, but by birth, privilege, wealth and power acquisition and political maneuvering. Same as it ever was.
Miffed;-)
We took a vote here at work and everyone has agreed to support Obama in retirement, if he retires by Monday
You guys must be masochists if you can willingly put up with a whole weekend with Obama still being the president.
He might be called "president" but he sure is not performing the duty.
"1. How can we sustainably pay for 75 million beneficiaries in 2020?"
All we have to do is do it for ONE year? I'm thinking that there's a bit of incompleteness in that sentence.
The real question would be: Who can we get to give us real shit for worthless IOUs?
I'm thinking that the ROW ain't in the mood anymore, and that as they start to creep toward "retirement" age that they're going to ask WTF they're funding our retirements and not their own...
BTW - The notion of "retirement" is a new concoction. The bulk of the 7+ Billion on the planet will never experience "retirement," just as has been the case with the overwhelming majority of humans that have previously lived on this ball.
I calculate fewer than 1% of all humans who have ever lived retired in relative comfort.
WE ARE THE 99%
Whooot!
And at the rate the west is shipping gold and bitcoin and energy to China, I suspect the remaining 1% will be mandarin-speaking.
Us young'ns probably won't ever see anything of the sort. 40 years until I'm of retirement age and something tells me there won't be fuckall left for my generation.
I see many generations under one roof coming soon. It's already started with kids who never left home. Next grandpas pension is gone, he can't live alone, and he moves in with the family. We will end up like Japan (in more ways than one).
WAIT! I completely forgot about the largest computing power ever imagined- Deep Thought. Yes! The "answer" has been with us for a LONG time now, and it's 42!
WAIT!! What about 50 million retiring in Japan and others from China? Can we support them?
Yellen --> sure. we just need 20 acres of land full of tall trees...
Yup. And thank you for demonstrating that there's more in the world than just the Fed/US.
Math and demographics. The path is clear. What isn't is the depth and breadth of the pot holes...
Oh! And be kind to Filipinos.
Ha! 42 it is. Hit the Infinite Improbability Drive Button, Marvin. All will be well.
When it finally blows they will allow for a short span "The Killing Fields".
Git yer goddamn commie libertarian hands off my Social Security you goddamn hippy pinko commie! I paid for that! If you want to cut some welfare why don't you go and kick some of "those people" off of food stamps. Get a goddamn job you lazy bastards, I never got no welfare in my life - and get your goddamn hands off my government motor-scooter.
You need some fresh material. When u troll the same thing over and over it kinda loses its effect.
Re: You need some fresh material. When u troll the same thing over and over it kinda loses its effect.
End the Fed.
Fuck you Bernanke!
Is that the one that lets you stand up and dance?
Those are pretty nice.
pods
Sure we can.
There is this trust fund thingie and a lockbox and when you open it up it has IOU's in it.
We just have to sell those IOU's to the public and then we will have the money.
Sometimes they call those IOU's treasury bonds. We are already selling a lot of treasury bonds. 650 billion this year alone just to fund the deficit.
When we need to sell all those treasury bonds in the lockbox to get money to pay for social security benefits I am certain we can find buyers. Even if we are selling a shit ton of treasury bonds already to fund the deficit.
Fortunately the Fed is buying them IOU's, cuz it seems like the chinese and our private citizens havebought all they want.
It's a magical, unicorn-kind of world when we all just play make-believe! Perpetual growth is awesome! Just have to believe!
Just consume and it will come!
That's the spirit, comrade!
YES WE CAN!
HOPE AND CHANGE!
Lean forward, comrades.
I fully expect printing until the bond market revolts. Even when it starts to revolt, I expect clandestine printing. The printing and cooked inflation numbers will continue for many years into the future. The plan is a slow boil for the next 20 years. Bureaucrats on bloated pensions will thrive. Everyone else will be barely eeking out a life. Better than the apocolypse. Both Dooms Day Preppers and establishment private sector hacks will be unhappy. Bullish on unhappiness.
O/T... What's this about the O'bummer + Dems pushing through legislation to outlaw ALL social and legal discrimination or "defamation" against "Them" (GLBT)? Heard on the radio last night that the Senate will likely pass it, with a few pivotal ("swing") GOP voters siding with Dems, but that things could "get sticky" in the House.
Since there is no free lunch can I quit sending in my maxed out annual FICA contribution that I have been paying for 25 years? Just send me back what I've paid in and we will call it even, ok.
Since there is no free lunch can I quit sending in my maxed out annual FICA contribution that I have been paying for 25 years? Just send me back what I've paid in and we will call it even, ok.
What you said.
At most annual all employee meetings my Fortune 50 employer was fond of pointing out its FICA contribution (one component of what the company referred to as our "other paycheck") and stating that was part of our compensation. The implication being we all would have gotten a raise in that amount had SS been abolished. Maybe we can get that back as well?
I actually tried to opt out of SS 30+ years ago. My excuse being religious grounds. Based on the tone of the response, I thought the SSA was going to sic the FBI on me.
So by the time you strip out the unemployed, the retired, those who are not participating in the workforce, those in jail, those in the armed forces overseas, those in government, those studying in colleges and those on Wall Street......whose is producing anything of value?
Re: whose is producing anything of value?
We're knowledge workers now. We add value with bullshit.
"whose is producing anything of value?"
And I hear many boast about "being productive," yet, I suspect, the very notion of "productivity" itself is based on world/paradigm that's crashing. So... the REAL question is to ask what out there actually has any "value" going forward. There's no real answer here, and all, the markets, TPTB's "guidance" etc demonstrate that we're encountering a collision with reality, that the current paradigm has run out of legs.
What would you say to all those that paid into the system their entire lives but you now feel have become "parasites" because they are too old to work? Die motherfucker? Sorry suckers? Fuck you Mom?
It's hard to see what this article is attempting to communicate. Promises were made. People paid in. Now what? No sorry, we need to give that money to Jamie Fuciing Dimon because his yacht needs a new fucking paint job?
There is something seriously sickening about the tone of this article.
I suspect there are many senior citizens reading articles like this and wishing they had had abortions. And can you blame them?
They should realize that disappointment is a part of reality. You cannot logically conclude that because I paid X amount of dollars into the system that I qualify for X*10 for benefits. It simply was a ponzi. They should have taken control of their lives and built their own nest egg to fall back on. Yea, it sucks... but that's life.
It is supposed to X*Y where Y increases the principal value to match purchasing value in inflated dollars at the time you cash out. To be fair they fucked everyone there who paid in since they rig the CPI which is the measure they use to determine Y.
Yeah, you're right. They should have made more money. Gee, why did they think of that? Oh well...yea, it sucks, that's life. What a great philosophy to live by. It makes everything a-o-fucking-k. Thanks!
When you live in a world in which you must expect to be ripped off, then what incentive is there to be honest?
Remember the "contributions" were not voluntary, but compulsory. As to the "taking control of their lives" idea, how would that remove the "obligation at gunpoint" to pay into the "system"?
Retirees now (and those in the future) have seen their contributions provide a long, and generally quite comfortable retirement for their parents (mine have had 34 ++ years on a combination of employers and State pension), and have had a jolly comfortable time I can assure you.
There are a LOT of MAJOR industries dependent on the financial wellbeing of retirees - particularly "big players" including the Cruise lines (if you ever go on a Cruise, you will see what I mean!!), and other "lifstyle providers" meeting the very significant retirement leisure expectations of the nouveau retired (check out the age demographics of travellers at major International airports for instance!)
Don't know about the USA, but here in Oz the retirees exemplify the "We've got RIGHTS, Mate" mindset, and they are determined to have what they want (and sod everyone else, 'cause "I've worked for it, Mate!"). Any crimping of their lifestyle, and they will be getting very unhappy, very fast. Add in the knowledge that many retirees have a lifetime of "useful skills" that can be used for their benefit (and to the disadvantage of the rest of us), and things have the potential to become quite nasty, quite quickly.
We certainly don't want that, do we??
Grey Panthers?
It is one thing to take out what you paid in but you know the general health trend with people these days that that number is most likely going to exceed the paid in figure for most.
But it's government run.
What could possibly go wrong.
One branch gives out money and a different branch approves health procedures.
The real problem is not what they paid in but WHO they kept voting in, who in turn spent their contributions unwisely and gave them useless, worthless IOU's in return.
The fact that oldies live longer doesn't help nor does the massive offshoring of jobs.
Add to the above, the fact that they are all living longer which in turn causes a blowout to medical costs which are the bigger burden.
Lol. It doesnt matter what we wish. Reality will end the ponzi.
Go ahead and take all the cspital and productive capacity owned by the top ten percent and throw it into the black hole called entitlements. Redistribute the shit out of everything.
We have seen this movie many times. The modern version with all the cool effects will end the same way.
Prepare yourself. Save what capital and productive capacity you have. I think we got ten more years before it starts getting bad.
ZIRP policy in effect.
And it can't be above that. There's nothing left to keep this ponzi aloft. And given that EVERYTHING is predicated on growth we're going to see what a big mistake it was to not ask the question of what we'd do if growth were to end. Reality is relentless, it cannot be out-run.
Oh there is plenty left. Havent you seen this movie before.
Decreased productivity due to loss of incentives.
Inflation
Capital controls.
No one allowed to trade except in the presence of an employee of the emperor
Black market thrives. Everyone who produces becomes a criminal to survive and ignores taxes.
Capital destruction leading to blaming the rich.
Then govt employees search your house for capital, anything of value.
Increasing authoritarianism as the system starts to fall apart.
Even black market goods start to disappear.
Productivity completely disappears .
Anarchy. System reset.
Always ends the same.
Who is John Galt?
Death Panels are the solution.
All "Soylents" over 65 will need to be liquified
Logan's Run.
Whether your lifeclock is impregnated in the palm of your hand or on your wrist and forearm like "In Time"....
Population control is an agenda that will remain on the top of the list.
Which parties mean to control the agenda and the terms of that list is the question people should be asking
While I am sure that there are those out there contemplating "population control" (well, aren't we doing this now, here?) I don't think that it's plan that's on the front-burner. Wars already have a proven ability to hide all this problematic stuff, and people love their wars and their war heroes!
Mother Nature is the lead "planner." Can we figure out how we can deep-six her and her evil goals?
Krugman's on the job. He says death panels AND a VAT.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9u2Lf0DdzA
Re; He says death panels AND a VAT.
I wouldn't mind a VAT if there was an actual Conservative party to represent it correctly.
And, not sure about "death panels" but it sure would be good to cut these OldFarts off of perpetual hip-replacement surgeries.
There is a stealth VAT tax in place it is worked into the price of goods to offset business income taxes. Corporations don't pay taxes that sell to the public the public pays that tax since it is baked into the price of the goods.
"there is no free lunch."
It's funny that so many people believe this. We are all treated to free lunches, breakfasts, and dinners every day. They were paid for by generations past. All of the culture, knowledge and technology that we benefit from have been collectively created by our ancestors for Milena and gifted to us. A good book to read about this is "Unjust Deserts: How the Rich Are Taking Our Common Inheritance and Why We Should Take it Back."
Please don't confuse free RECIPIES with free MATERIALS. The necessary materials were NOT "left behind." The "problem" is that there's not enough natural capital to sustain the status quo (of perpetual growth).
I was just about to up vote you for the response to the ancestor worshipper but then you went on to drool out the same old tired crap of "not enough this" "sustain" etc.
Read Critical Path. But before you do consider all the fucking WASTE due to misallocation or lack of logistical organization. Just go down to any auto junkyard and see the vast amount of resouces lying in wait. Metals, food, energy-we have more than we can handle but distibution, logistics, etc screw it all up.
Now on the perpetual growth thing you are dead on. But the only reason we "need" that is because of our fucked up political/banking/debt scam.
What a way to sound all intellectual and stuff!
"Read Critical Path. But before you do consider all the fucking WASTE due to misallocation or lack of logistical organization."
WHO decides what is and what isn't waste?
NOTHING is wasted except energy and time.
Read up on Jevons Paradox if you think that being more efficient is the salvation that you appear to be suggesting that it is.
"Metals, food, energy-we have more than we can handle but distibution, logistics, etc screw it all up."
Yeah, it's all possible if not for someone else's fucking it up!
There's NO mention of time as component of this! I can take pretty much ANTYHING and make it work if given a short enough time slice. All is fine if you think two-dimensionally. Have "enough" for HOW LONG? and at what rate of growth in consumption?
Recent article on a guy who feel from a tree while hunting and mashed three vertebrae and was paralyzed and on a breathing machine or something like that. Family gathered and "asked" him did he want to live or not? Apparently it had been a very, very short time since the accident and he had not even been conscious much. Course, he "chose" to die.
The real problem here is the ones like my neighbor: "retired" cop on disability. How can you be "retired" and on disability? Disability means you can't work. Retired means you have decided to no longer work. FIRST place to look for money, Stop all the Disability Fraud. My tv shows a lovely ad, woman could no longer walk across the lunchroom because of panick attacks, goes on disability. Yeah sure, you betcha.
A woman has a baby. Gets welfare. Has another baby. Gets more welfare. Is designated the "nurse" of her own children because one is "disabled" in some ambiguous way that has nothing to do with the child actually being disabled but has to do with paying for her to take care of her own children. Put these fathers on chain gangs to clean up the country and Voila. No more out-of-wedlock children. No one should have to pay for children that are not theirs. And if you think this is about compassion, you are welcome to open your wallet and spread around all the compassion you can afford.
And did you hear the one about the fat cat banker who was able to claim HUGE sums of handouts by merely proclaiming to do "God's work?" I mean, that's quite a load, and I'm sure that the guy is really deserving of that, much more than say some sleaze trying to account for some child who had no say in the matter of its situation.
We can and should stop both.
You dont feel that zero hedge is anti banker enough? Lol
It's more common for people to be engaged in bashing the "less fortunate." And while bankers do get trashed it's usually more along the lines of being a theif than of being worthlesss and lazy.
But, yes, I do NOT approve of abuses no matter. I don't, however, feel that I need to spend time campaigning against that which is going to melt down with the System: it's like tilting at windmills.
It only takes 1% of the population to grow all the food we need. It only takes 8% of the population to manufacture everything we need. It only takes 1% of the population to supply us with all the energy we need. ... Then why does it take 50% of the population to run government?
Re: Then why does it take 50% of the population to run government?
50% don't run the government. 50% live off the government.
The top 0.01% run (aka manage) the government and always have.
"govt" is, and always has been, nothing but a structured system to support hierarchical control. And because "death taxes" are bad (well, all are, but folks just don't see that there are ramifications both ways) we end up supporting family dynasties and their continued domination over all else. It's a great misdirection.
It's all why I state that in order to "evolve" we would be better off looking to carry on without setting ourselves up with a festering boil.
If you ran a farm the way this system is run, the fields would be a barren wasteland in a few short years.
Hell, I wouldn't want to run a farm like they're being run NOW (and I'm not).
That's how it's going with our Ag lands as it is. Just wait until the costs of the chemical fertilizers comes home to roost.
Alan Greenspan said he could promise a certain number of dollars by 2020 or a certain value of the dollar, but not both.
When the productive capacity is not there to support all the retired people no amount of money magic will solve it.
I began to read this piece but had to stop and will get back to it later when I have settled down a bit.
But here's a suggestion to "fix" the problem. How about we just end the Ponzi scheme cold turkey. And all the current recipients just get fuct. Sounds fair to me since THEY ARE THE ASSHOLES WHO CREATED THIS MESS OR ALLOWED IT TO HAPPEN.
I'll forgo the pile of cash already stolen from me SINCE I WAS 13. ANd since I have had NOTHING to do with its inception or its continuing existance the fact that I lose out the least doesn't bother me in the least.
If you paid in money then you're complicit, sorry. Believe it or not there are and always have been ways around this: of course, they generally require one to live the low-life.
Further, anytime someone says they have a "solution" is have one foot headed toward the door.
It's always good to shout "bring on the revolution," but then what? What's YOUR "solution" post-"adjustment?" I'll tell you flat out, if it even mentioned "growth" then it has ZERO credibility.
The "retirement" stuff is just one part of The Big Ponzi. Perpetual growth on a finite planet is THE mother of all Ponzis.
The guy paid in money but is being magnanimous saying he will forego social security and any other "entitlements" he is "owed" if we just stop all government transfers now.
Sounds like a guy trying to be fair. He is not "complicit" just because he paid in.
I like his solution. I could go along with it too. Just stop now. Reset time.
"Complicit" means you took part in it. So, yes, he (and I as well) has been complicit.
But, again, shouting out in anger (and WTF good does it do here, like folks here have legislative authority?) doesn't do shit. Futher, many doing this are just hollering for someone else to do the dirty work. Fuck it.
I'm spending my time on making a world as I see I need to than in telling others how it should be. Expecting things to just stop ain't going to happen, until that is, it does so, but it won't be on account of any "action" against it, it'll be by its own weight of failure.
And, lastly, this person is just another "planner." And anyone who can't comprehend the concept of the exponential function ought not be someone to lead us out of the dark (with his/her "plans").
Bullshit. By your definition everyone who earned a single dollar outside the black market was/is complicit.
Re: I like his solution. I could go along with it too. Just stop now. Reset time.
The young people could do this, but... honestly, the ponzi is the natural state. There wasn't some grand conspiracy that got us where we are now. Everybody was just taking the short term outlook and the US was unlucky enough to have been the reserve currency. And, unlucky enough to have a society that has lots of hate with nobody to hate except other Americans. Oh well..
At some distant future time, people will scratch their heads and wonder how we could let this happen.
It is equivalent to believing the earth is flat and the sun rotates around the earth.
Quite an eye opener awaits us all.
"Given that the number of people choosing to retire early at 62 rather than wait for full benefits at 66"
Who is choosing? Being layed off isn't a choice.
And why do people expect to retire? I sure as hell have no expectations of doing so. I mean, nothing says "living off of others" than "retirement." It's totally abnormal. I think people should be, in whatever manner "productive" means, to be "productive," to contribute as long as they are breathing. Where in nature can we see other living things going in to "retirement?"
Re: And why do people expect to retire?
That's a good point too. Over time, there was an expectation of "retirement" created. I've 58, I won't need SS, but it'll be extra cash. Technically, in a society where people though of each other as citizens of a common (something-or-other) I wouldn't get SS.
What a country this is.
Bearing in mind thar Retirees hae a penchant for part time employment as a distraction, and maybe to supplement income, then with the USA moving towards a "Part Time" econoomy there may well be "jobs" for all.
Unfortunately with the "main workforce" needing to work two or three part-time "jobs" to make ends meet, it'll be interesting to see how all those seeking employment will fare. Add in the ongoing replacement of people my machines (no healthcare, no pension scheme, and a 24-hour production capability with nil complaints / infighting), then how many of these part-time jobs are just transient?
We sure do live in "Interesting Times" . . .
That's what I'm planning on doing. I'm getting as much free loot as I can ASAP. There's no way it's going to last for long.
"Can We Support 75 Million Retirees In 2020?" - fuck no.
The average monthly Social Security check is $1,230. Could you retire on $14,760 a year? Social Security isn't intended to fully support old people.
I grew up in the 1960's. In elementary school (4th grade maybe?) we were taught about the difference between "cradle-to-grave" social systems and the American Way. The American Way of caring for our elderly people relied on a "three legged stool" - private sector pension, personal savings, and government Social Security.
No one was supposed to assume they would be supported solely by Social Security in their old age. It was a safety net to ensure that working folks don't end up penniless on the street when they can no longer work, and a lifestyle enhancer for working folks who have stashed away a pension and personal savings toward retirement.
That's what we learned in 4th grade in the early 1960's. Now I guess kids have Barney The Purple Dinosaur teaching them that there's enough SNAP cards for everyone if we all just learn to share.
Obviously, the private sector's leg couldn't handle it either. And likely for the same reason that "personal savings" couldn't either (aside from the fact that we chased after the consumer economy, thereby emptying that "personal savings").
What they didn't teach in the 4th grade was that perpetual growth, which was in full force back then, isn't possible. Yet, this is exactly what they were pretending would hold those legs to the stool. The stool collapsed in 1971: US started to become net importer (due to peak oil production); full fiat; and "open relations" with China [arranging where we'd push our inflation]). Shit happenign today was all primed by events of long ago...
We. there is no We. The Central Banks have commingled all countries finances. So we is Europe, Canada, Mexico etc. Treasonous as it is the Central Bankers don't have national budgets in the way they used to. They have joined the world finances under their control ahead of globalist planned unification of various areas of the world.
The war has been waged and is under way.
So, in the context of your question there can be no answer.
We could run this a little longer if we took the lid off the maximum income liable for contributions ($113,000/yr) and if we taxed all ss income for those with more than $50,000/yr income. If ss checks stop coming to seniors I don't see how we can keep sending welfare and unemployment to the younger, able bodied citizens. This would just be chaos and collapse.
I agree that growth forever is not sustainable and I also agree that end of life expensive treatment is not sustainable.
The FED can't print tortillas.
Just some idle thoughts.
The gov't fucked up SS
the gov't fucked up Health Care
the gov't fucked up housing
the gov't fucked up the economy
the banks fucked the world.
Can these shit heads do anything right?
All of a sudden I'm not so scared of the NSA
To put all those things into some perspective:
In Germany the ratio between payers and retirees will drop to almost 1:1 in 2030.
The "Rentenkasse" payroll tax (equivalent to Social Security) is 20%. It would be a lot higher (and indirectly is a lot higher), if the "Oekosteuer", an additional tax on gasoline since 2001, and the VAT increase from 16% to 19% in 2007 hadn't been used mainly to covertly prop up the pension system.
A study for the German Constitutional Court about 15 years ago had shown, that to keep the pension system from imploding either the retirement age would need to rise from 65 to 75, or the payroll tax from 20% to 40%, or some mix of both.
The only thing that has really happened is a law was passed that the retirement age will rise to 67 some day in the future, but since then politicians have postponed the start several times.
It will be only about $1 trillion in today's dollars to pay'em all.
answer to question number two is no. answer to question number one is you can't.
Guest Post: Can We Support 75 Million Retirees in 2020?
To rephrase the question getting rid of the We: " Can the US retirement systems Support 75 Million Retirees in 2020?
Yes.. 2020 is a short 7 years away, the US will not be running out of numbers to enter into being of source accounting systems. The product of such systems will still have some value as a medium of exchange and will be distributed to retirees.
Further it is most likely that people in the US at year 2020 will still have: electrical power, gasoline, ample food produciton, and robust supply chains.
For me, I will support my "We" the younger and older generations as I see fit. Fully aware and so complicit of my decisions in thought crime attitudes, denying the state as my savior or savior of those I care about.
Hey - I'm 72 and don't really give a shit about all of you younger assholes. All I care about is getting my hands on enough money to pay my bills. So what if my immediate needs destroy your future? Why should I care. This whole America thing has turned into a farce anyway. so, bring on the printing. And fuck you all.
Oh. sorry. I've had a few too many sherries. Time for my nightly enema. Pardon me while I take a dump. s/
you must be proud to screw your grandchildren over like that. Actually from the sound of it, you would have to adopted and back in those days they didnt let your type adopt.
Maybe you'll at least save some sherry for us?
Even if we could, why would we?
I doubt America will be able to support anything by 2020.