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October Payrolls Soar By 204,000, Nearly Double Expected Print; Unemployment Rate Rises To 7.3%
So much for all the fire and brimstone associated with the government shutdown.
- October nonfarm payrolls soar +204,000, nearly double the 120,000 expected.
- Unemployment rate at 7.3%, up from 7.2%.
And just like that, the "Taper talk" is back...
From the report:
Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in October. Among the unemployed, however, the number who reported being on temporary layoff increased by 448,000. This figure includes furloughed federal employees who were classified as unemployed on temporary layoff under the definitions used in the household survey. (Estimates of the unemployed by reason, such as temporary layoff and job leavers, do not sum to the official seasonally adjusted measure of total unemployed because they are independently seasonally adjusted.) For more information on the classification of workers affected by the federal government shutdown, see the box note. (See tables A-1 and A-11.)
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.0 percent), adult women (6.4 percent), teenagers (22.2 percent), whites (6.3 percent), blacks (13.1 percent), and Hispanics (9.1 percent) showed little or no change in October. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 4.1 million in October. These individuals accounted for 36.1 percent of the unemployed. The number of long-term unemployed has declined by 954,000 over the year. (See table A-12.)
The civilian labor force was down by 720,000 in October. The labor force participation rate fell by 0.4 percentage point to 62.8 percent over the month. Total employment as measured by the household survey fell by 735,000 over the month and the employment-population ratio declined by 0.3 percentage point to 58.3 percent. This employment decline partly reflected a decline in federal government employment. (See table A-1.)
The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed at 8.1 million in October. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)
* * *
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 204,000 in October. Job growth averaged 190,000 per month over the prior 12 months. In October, job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, professional and technical services, manufacturing, and health care. Federal government employment continued to trend down. There were no discernible impacts of the partial federal government shutdown on the estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the establishment survey. (See table B-1.)
Leisure and hospitality employment rose by 53,000 in October. Within the industry, employment in food services and drinking places increased by 29,000, the same as its average monthly gain over the prior 12 months.
Employment in retail trade increased by 44,000 in October, compared with an average monthly gain of 31,000 over the prior 12 months. Job growth was widespread within the industry in October, with gains in food and beverage stores (+12,000), electronics and appliance stores (+10,000), sporting goods and hobby stores (+8,000), general merchandise stores (+8,000), and building material and garden supply stores (+7,000). Clothing and clothing accessories stores lost 13,000 jobs.
Professional and technical services employment rose in October (+21,000) and has grown by 213,000 over the past 12 months. Within the industry, employment in management and technical consulting services rose by 8,000 in October.
Manufacturing added 19,000 jobs in October, with job growth occurring in motor vehicles and parts (+6,000), wood products (+3,000), and furniture and related products (+3,000). On net, manufacturing employment has changed little since February 2013.
Health care employment increased over the month (+15,000). Job growth in health care has averaged 17,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly gain of 27,000 in 2012.
In October, employment showed little or no change elsewhere in the private sector, including mining and logging, construction, wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, information, and financial activities.
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Layoff / Business Closing List
http://www.dailyjobcuts.com
,
8:30AM Do you know where your smackdown is?
Taper confirmation on GDP growth and Payroll.
Good News = Bad News for Stocks.
I'm off to the coinshop.....you guys want anything?
I'd better hurry before the revisions hit.
is that 204k number out of a population of 350m?
There will be no taper. And I have been calling for lower gold prices till year end (and I sell gold).
Fed Tapering Coming to an End Sooner than Expected? Hardly! http://bit.ly/1hQLYcT
But the best part about this article is my analysis on the Debt to GDP ratios of most of Europe, Japan, UK and U.S. and how the S&P projections from just 2 years ago completley missed the mark for 2013 and 2016. In fact, only one country came in better than expected in both projections. Which one? The one that practiced austerity. Printing more money did help in Japan, but they lead the wild bunch in Debt to GDP ratio. Temporary fixes are just that; temporary. Till more is needed. At some point the cracks in all countries Humpty Dumpty economies will bring them down. But my conclusion is that the last bastion of safety will be "perceived" to be; the U.S. Dollar. Emphasis on "perceived." I see both the Dollar and gold going up together in the near future.
It's all part of my next book, "Illusions of Wealth."
But Doug....what about the GLD etf being emptied as we speak. Eventually they will have absolutely no physical backing right? How about the asians importing massive amounts of physical gold and virtual bitcoin? Or all the articles about the bankers in the JPM vault wrestling over a krugerrand?
As someone who sells gold, any truth to any of this ever impacting supply?
fonz, I am well aware of all these things. I was one of the first to point out to people the custodian of SLV is JP Morgan and that ETFs aren't insured. Anything can happen there too, in times of trouble. But we are not there yet. Yes Asia is buying more. The Central Banks still have an Agreement that runs till September of next year, so there is ample of supply for any Asian buyers. My suppliers had a slow month last month overall, despite some good sales from the Mint.
I base my lower prices on many factors that include end of year tax loss selling. If you are a professional trader, Mutual Fund, Hedge Fund, you get 100% of the write off and if you are Mom and Pop investor, you get $3,000 a year write off, so why not sell and lock in that gift from the IRS? Of course one must be carefull with the wash rule. I am writing an article about that soon after a meeting with Deloitte.
Market Makers would love to squeeze the longs, especially those on leverage. What better time to do it than over the hollidays? The last thing any government wants is anyone talking about how bad things are and about gold with their families during Thanksgiving and Christmas. But how about that roaring stock market? Get out and spend people!
The talk of tapering will continue to surface. But it is just "talk." They may do a token $10 billion like what was discussed last time, but it's just to keep the game alive. More taper is what they know is needed, not less. The GDP numbers and Unemployment numbers don't paint the true picture. Debt to GDP ratios do and they show you just how wrong the S&P is in their projections and why gold will eventually skyrocket.
But that's only part of the story.... Lots of piece to the puzzle as you know.
Thanks for the info Doug. Don't get too bearish on the markets. They may not reflect reality for a long time.
I agree fonz. That's why asset allocation works! Take from the winners, and contribute to the losers (gold/silver). But the question is, what will a similar crisis to 2008 bring this time? That's what I'm writing about.
Taper-on!!
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year
Gold and Silver are the smackdown...the 10 year just hit 2.7
Gold just dropped to 1289
Waiting for <$1000. Also looking at ALL precious and strategic metals and materials for a long-term view.
After all, the Galaxy stopped making this stuff near here a very long time ago. And we don't love it so much that we want Nature* to start making it near us again. Cause that would be infinitely worse than anything TPTB can throw at us. :-)
* A sun that's a lot larger than ours (4-5 x dia. of our Sun, or 60-130 Solar Masses), so it can go Super-Nova.
"Totally unexpected beat:.
Too obvious, guys!!!
Lies-man has a hard-on
I'll give you even odds the 60 laid off from "Renewable Energy Corp" were dummies hired for research credits.
hmmmm....
Yes you read that correctly.
Payrolls increased and so did unemployment. It's comedy gold.
LOL....FemBots heads exploding everywhere...they don't know WTF to do.
China
.....is getting richer by the day. Ben Shalom is back on the Christmas popcorn list.
Taper on!
Not too fast! Don't want your asshole to slam shut and end up sitting on one of those donut pillows.
Really? Looks like our Chinafication is coming full circle.
everyone just fucking laugh at this point.
ya, 204,000 jobs added, yet labor participation for october lowest since 1978, unemployment up from 7.2 yo 7.3, but ya, 204,000 jobs added.
do these clowns think we r that fucking stupid?
next month they will come out and say octobers number was really 50,000
2.70 on the 10yr. it's getting predictable.
The beatings clearly will continue until every last pence of the landless peasants is taken.
Please, TPTB really don't care what you think. Just accept that they are a chosen people and do what they say, give them all your real assets and labor and simply accept their paper promises...
Ah fuck it, roll the mother fucking guillotines...
No matter what you write, when you end it with, roll the mother fucking guillotines" I give you an up arrow. I am past being ready for that.
It's going to be green by tonight. POMO is huge today
Do you want fries with that ?
Shit. I had the over on 300k. <tosses ticket in garbage>
Taper will equate to me buying a lot of Gold.
Internals terribly ugly ( not seasonally adjusted). NILF spikes to 91.4 million. Civ labor part rate drops to 62.9. Employment o pop ratio down to 58.5.
Are these all the 'jobs' that weren't reported for months cos of computer 'uprades' and now added all together in one bunch? Wouldn't surprise me in the least if that's how they did it as well as loads more 'imaginary' workers that have to do two or three jobs to make ends meet.
Anyone catch that spike in the ten year yield this morning? 2 and 5s starting to behave badly...
in a "debt is money" system, sovereign debt must expand.
Tick tock motherfuckers...
You know, I'd just frikkin LOVE for this to be asked* of Congressional and Presidential candidates. And then watch them, waffle, deflect and redirect.
BOTFG (Bring Out The F'g G..) and we don't mean the "Gimp".
* Candidate X, please tell us how -- in principle -- you'd limit Government Debt, given the "Money is Debt" monetary system of the Fed.
Follow-up question... Candidate X, given that you clearly have little to no real understanding of the Monetary System, and given that ALL else in our economy and society is built on that, how in the world do you expect to solve ANYTHING, and why should we then vote for you?
You're more likely to hit the next Power Ball winning ticket than getting these all-important questions asked.
The US Government is now hiring for positions
- Must have the ability to make up numbers and statistics to support ridiculous Keynesian failed policies
-Must willing believe the lies you will spew to the public
-Must feel entitled to a high paying position where practically no work is done.
Qualifications
-Wall St past preferable including JPM, GS, and BAC/ML
-Ivy league education at an elite liberal school
-Must read Paul Krugman's article in the New York Times and believe what he says to be true
Feel free to add..
Not good enough. Must score enough Demographic points also. Honkies need not apply, unless they have Preferred status (Chosen or Elite ancestors). /s
p.s. Is 'Honkies' rayciss? I guess not.
equities will deff finish green, but as long as 10 year finishes day say north of 2.80 it will be a good day.
if they r going to make up numbers, dont make it so unbelieveable.
p.s, steve liesman is a fucking clown
False flag cancelled in Mass. as "stolen" weapons recovered.
http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_coverage/2013/11/fbi_offers_20g_for_stolen_rifles
If these are "dangerous weapons", what were the Agents doing with them? /s
$20k seems like more than what they cost. So, a good incentive to use the FBI as a Pawnshop, after you stole their gear? ;-)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/column-markets-saft-idUSL2N0IP1QW20131105
The QE deflation puzzle
Tue Nov 5, 2013 3:00pm EST
By James Saft
Nov 5 (Reuters) - When it comes to creating inflation, bond buying by central banks may actually ultimately be counterproductive.
Called quantitative easing, it continues to be a mainstay of the policy reaction to the ongoing economic malaise. Yet here we are five years later and the evidence that QE can kindle inflation, much less revive the economy, is decidedly mixed.
In part that may be because everyone realizes that QE isn't forever: ultimately the bonds the bank buys will have to be repaid. It is also true - and here we can consider the remarkable valuations of Twitter and Pinterest - that QE causes bad investments, which ultimately must be deflationary.
With U.S. inflation rising just 1.2 percent year on year in September, well below the Fed's 2.0 percent target, bond buying by the Federal Reserve will continue - a bit like the old joke about beatings carrying on until morale improves.
Very radical increases in bond buying in Japan under Abenomics - more or less a pledge to buy and buy assets until inflation reaches 2 percent - has also had only mixed success so far, with core inflation flat in the year to September. That this, the first time Japan core inflation hasn't fallen outright since the end of 2008, is seen as a victory is itself a bit of an indictment of extraordinary monetary policy.
Dangerously falling inflation in the euro zone has prompted calls for the ECB to join in the bond buying, despite its signal lack of success elsewhere. The ECB is arguably already engaging in QE as its program of providing long-term financing to banks often leads to banks buying government bonds themselves.
So, QE everywhere, and everywhere unsatisfactory inflation and at least the threat of falling prices. Could there be a relationship? Part of the failure of QE may be explained by the fact that as a percent of broader money supply the amounts involved are small. Banks must lend and businesses invest or QE will be swamped.
In some ways, all of the inflationary effects of QE are short-lasting and liable to reversed. Not only is everyone involved aware that ultimately the bonds are not being bought and burned, but bought and held, and thus must be repaid or will be sold by central banks.
Also, QE encourages private investors to gamble a bit, perhaps leading to poor choices.
"Unproductive investment is by nature ultimately deflationary," Michaela Marcussen, global head of economics at Societe Generale, wrote in a note to clients. "This is a point also worth recalling when investing in paper assets fueled by QE liquidity and not underpinned by sustainable economic growth."
Deflation is a fucking myth as no society/currency has ever collapsed/died because their purchasing power was too strong.
With 7+ billion people (and growing) competing for a better quality of life, there is plenty of demand (and growing) for all kinds of real assets, commodities, and energy. "Dangerously falling inflation in the euro zone" - LMFAO!!!! What's the cost of living in most EZ countries again? Fucking morons.
So it's "ok" for prices to keep falling for electronics (using Moore's Law), but not for food or house prices?
Imagine the horror... of a family actually paying LESS for food and a new home year over year. Like that's ever gonna happen.
Pfff.
Ouch..... Some Buttpain this morning...
To be cheered up http://teenybgirls.com/leanna-decker/
Reminds me of Boehner for some reason.
Do these number come anywhere close to what people are seeing in the market? I sure don't and I'm watching. My business have never been worse in 30 years and I'm trying to decide if I'm going to shut down or double down. Totally confused.
I keep hearing that there is no money to buy from my buyers.
Yet their corporate stocks are at record highs.
How can a company's shares hit a record high if they have no money to buy the inventory that brings in the revenue to support the record high stock?
That means something ain't right with the books. Corporations would never fake revenue though, that's illegal right?
Just think how much better it would be if alll of the Senate and the House was made up of TED CRUZ clones?
Thanks TED. :)
Fod for thought: Obama has implemented 106 new regulations each estimated to cost American businesses in excess of $100M dollars each, so that's a total of $11B dollars or so in aggregate, but the estimated cost of the government shutdown to American businesses was in excess of $260B dollars. So Ted Cruz and the limelight-seeking naybobs' policies are 25X more damaging to American business over the short-term.
First of all, there was no "shutdown". In my business, a shutdown means no one gets paid nd no ordering is done, so no money is spent. Control the language and you control the sheeple (at least until they start to believe their lying eyes).
Good thing Ted and the boys put on that show then. LOL.
If they were all Ted Cruz clones, it would not be a show. But looks like a show is better than nothing. First 200+ print in how long?
Maybe .gov should shut down a little more often. The "talk" of any taper is ridiculous. BTFD!
The great american "conofme"
closing gov down , unemployment rate 1%. new logic?
It's amazing I tell you , how all the long usd/jpy traders got flushed down the shitter yesterday. /sarc
After this jobs report, the retailers better start cooking the books now. If they fail to meet frothy expectations (based upon false claims of more hiring), they will be sold off.
Take a look at this:
http://bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm
Look at the NOT seasonally adjusted numbers.
Down 500k jobs last month. Down is up.
What a horror show.
Sshhhhhh
We never talk about real numbers in America.
Unemployment rate went up because more people are looking for seasonal work to buy cheap Chinese trinkets for the holidays.
You hate Jesus.
proves shutdown the government is good for business!
7.3%...
LMFAO!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/column-markets-saft-idUSL2N0IP1QW20131105
The QE deflation puzzle
Tue Nov 5, 2013 3:00pm EST
By James Saft
Nov 5 (Reuters) - When it comes to creating inflation, bond buying by central banks may actually ultimately be counterproductive.
Called quantitative easing, it continues to be a mainstay of the policy reaction to the ongoing economic malaise. Yet here we are five years later and the evidence that QE can kindle inflation, much less revive the economy, is decidedly mixed.
In part that may be because everyone realizes that QE isn't forever: ultimately the bonds the bank buys will have to be repaid. It is also true - and here we can consider the remarkable valuations of Twitter and Pinterest - that QE causes bad investments, which ultimately must be deflationary.
With U.S. inflation rising just 1.2 percent year on year in September, well below the Fed's 2.0 percent target, bond buying by the Federal Reserve will continue - a bit like the old joke about beatings carrying on until morale improves.
Very radical increases in bond buying in Japan under Abenomics - more or less a pledge to buy and buy assets until inflation reaches 2 percent - has also had only mixed success so far, with core inflation flat in the year to September. That this, the first time Japan core inflation hasn't fallen outright since the end of 2008, is seen as a victory is itself a bit of an indictment of extraordinary monetary policy.
Dangerously falling inflation in the euro zone has prompted calls for the ECB to join in the bond buying, despite its signal lack of success elsewhere. The ECB is arguably already engaging in QE as its program of providing long-term financing to banks often leads to banks buying government bonds themselves.
So, QE everywhere, and everywhere unsatisfactory inflation and at least the threat of falling prices. Could there be a relationship? Part of the failure of QE may be explained by the fact that as a percent of broader money supply the amounts involved are small. Banks must lend and businesses invest or QE will be swamped.
In some ways, all of the inflationary effects of QE are short-lasting and liable to reversed. Not only is everyone involved aware that ultimately the bonds are not being bought and burned, but bought and held, and thus must be repaid or will be sold by central banks.
Also, QE encourages private investors to gamble a bit, perhaps leading to poor choices.
"Unproductive investment is by nature ultimately deflationary," Michaela Marcussen, global head of economics at Societe Generale, wrote in a note to clients. "This is a point also worth recalling when investing in paper assets fueled by QE liquidity and not underpinned by sustainable economic growth."
"QE encourages private investors to gamble a bit, perhaps leading to poor choices"
20 years of Central bank market manipulation and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.
It doesn't get any more unbelievable than that. Revised next month in a whisper.
oops, unemployment went up!! MOAR QE!!!
"...and all I got was a collection of houses and classic cars."
The "taper" talk is just another scam until Yellen gets entrenched. She is not hawkish...she is dovish with a eye mostly on unemployment. Since trickle down employment is helped immensly by housing, no way they can let rates go back to 3% or above without killing it. With 2014 an election year and the implementation of Obamacare they'll do anything to avoid recession. I could be wrong, but I've learned the last 2 years you have to think as they think. And the only thing they are thinking about is self righteousness....consequences be damned. Thus I would be shocked if any actual tapering takes place before 2015 and will be mildly suprised if QE is not ramped up.
*yawn*
like this ever matters - BUY MOAR STAWKS!!! BTFD!!!! BTFATH!!!!!
Seasonally adjusted and hundreds of thousands of jobs added when the furloughed government workers came back from their two week vacation.
Remember a job only counts as lost when a person applies for unemployment. The federal workers weren't allowed to make unemployment claims this time. But by labor definitions they were unemployed.
The relorted adjusted number is so easy to manipulate that it is completely worthless. I am more interested in the unadjusted number that shows 500k lost jobs.
The seasonally adjusted Sept 2013 employment number was 144,303,000. The October 2013 seasonally adjusted employment number was 143,585,000.
The seasonally adjusted number shows almost 800k fewer jobs in October than September. How the fuck do you get +200k from that?
This was nothing other than a staged robbery. I'm not being the least bit 'cute' or sarcastic either. The ministry of propaganda staged this hit just to suck more funny money out of this system. Anyone so astonishingly stupid as to not realize that every 'connected' entity was short by way of being tipped off in advance really ought to just grab a nice appliance, separate it from it's power cord, fill a bath with water, plug the cord into an outlet, sit themselves into the tub then insert the f'ing cord!
Just ask yourself......."What number of trading days this year will be days where a net loss occurs at a primary dealer 'bank'"?
It really is much worse than your mind can comprehend.
I'm sure this months numbers as well as the revised numbers for the previous months has NOTHING to do with the NEW COMMIE recently put in to run the Labor Dept by Obama. Hmmm.........
Well, fellow Zh'ers, better think about something besides just buying metal for the holidays (thank you Doug for your never ending useful insights). While I am blessed beyond reason to live in the Great TarHeel State (love that guvn'r!), I learned something yesterday which may shed some light on other things we should be either buying or hunting and freezing: pigs, turkeys and chickens. My home state has been the #1 producer of turkeys in the world for well over a century. We produce so many pigs that their waste is the first 'perfume' (that's the smell of MONEY, boy!) you smell when driving east from the capital. NC has a long history of producing what the rest of you eat, especially during the holidays. Well buy it now, y'all. Because the fabulously wealthy Murphy clan, in all their wisdom, in cahoots with the stupidest legislature ever gerrymandered, after selling our water supply to Smithfield Foods to pollute, has now, with the blessing of everyone except those downwind, zero news coverage and a gag on any press on the subject, sold our entire meat industry to the Chinese (beef excluded so far). This brings a whole new meaning to the word 'antitrust.'
Turkey pullets are injected with steroids and antibiotics that grow them so fast that they are in the slaughterhouse in 7 weeks. Think about that the next time you buy a 28lb bird. You might not even want to know how fast they grow a pig.
I have nothing personally against our debt-owning neighbors across the lake, but do I really want my food produced by people who have no compunction about putting cadmium in toothpaste, lead in the paint on childrens' toys, and who pollute their own citizens so badly that they develop cancer by the age of eight?
Better add a shotgun to that Christmas list...at least the birds you shoot in the wild have only eaten Monsanto products!