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As Bitcoin Plunges 25% On Government Scrutiny, The First BTC "Fair Value" Reco Has A Stunning Price Target

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It took literally minutes following our report from yesterday that in addition to the ECB and Fed, it was the Senate's turn to finally shine the spotlight on the most notorious electronic currency with a hearing titled "Beyond Silk Road: Potential Risks, Threats, and Promises of Virtual Currencies" next Monday, for Bitcoin to tumble 25% from its all time high just shy of $400, to $290 within 12 hours, in large part answering our rhetorical question if "the one thing that can finally end the dream of Bitcoin holders arrive soon: when the government, and existing monetary authorities, start taking it seriously." They appear to be doing just that, which is why additional upside from here may be in the eye of the Cray supercomputer-armed NSA beholder.

So yes: Bitcoin is volatile. Very. That much is clear. But what is not so clear, and perhaps a key reason for this volatility, is just what the fundamental, or intrinsic value of BitCoins is when one strips away the pure euphoric momentum to the upside or downside.

To answer that question, we go to Raoul Pal, head of the Global Macro Investor, and his November 1st recommendation to "Buy Bitcoins"(when BTC was $210 so nearly a 100% return in 1 week) which among other things attempts to "value BTC using a macro framework" or, in other words, the first supply-demand driven fair value assessment of BTC.

His take, and price target, in a nutshell:

A fudge, but not a stupid one

 

Let’s use a broad guesstimate. One Bitcoin should theoretically be worth 700 ounces of gold or pretty close to $1,000,000, if we adjust existing supply of both to equal eachother.

 

One BTC is currently worth 0.14 ounces of gold.

 

That gives BTC an upside of 5000 times to equal the current price of gold, supply adjusted. Clearly, I and everyone else believes that Gold may well be much higher than here in the next 5 to 10 years, thus versus the US Dollar the upside for BTC could be multiples of that.

 

Now, before you shake your head, simply go back to the chart of Gold versus the US Dollar and just recognise that it has risen 8750% since the 1920s. And just remember that Microsoft rose 61,000% from its IPO to it’s peak.

 

Considering what we know about the world, I personally believe that Bitcoin may well explode in value as more and more people begin to use it.

 

If you stuck $5,000 into Bitcoins and each Bitcoin did go up to a gold equivalent of let’s say, only 100 ounces of gold (not the potential fair value of 700), then at current prices your Bitcoin stash would be worth $3.3m.

 

Now that’s what I call a tail-risk option. It’s either worth zero or it’s worth a truly outstanding amount of money.

 

I bet you never thought you’d see this in a macro publication. But I’m serious. This just might work.

Read on in the attached pdf below (link)

 


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Sun, 11/10/2013 - 13:44 | Link to Comment Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Yes, yes, bit coin "should" be worth x

Try convincing Indians and Chinese that a bitcoin is worth 700 ounces of gold.

LOL

Pump and dump bitchez...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 13:49 | Link to Comment Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

LOL is right.  I have ten toes.  If my toes are assumed to be worth the same as the world's gold, then each toe is worth 47 million ounces of gold.  OK, I made that up, but what ever the number is, I can retire now.

The author bizarrely assumes that the world's supply of bitcoins is backed by the world's supply of gold, which it's not.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 13:51 | Link to Comment chemystical
chemystical's picture

LOL is an understatement. 

Was preparing to post the same analogy but replacing bitcoin with my navel lint.

Was demand (or dare I say, utility) mentioned anywhere in the rest of the piece?  I lost interest after the opening sentence.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment qqqqtrader
qqqqtrader's picture

... and don't even think about mining it unless you have a special Bitcoin mining computer with a dozen graphic cards shoved into it.

After almost 4 days mining bitcoins on an average home PC I have accumulated...

Account: Personal Assets

Balance: 0.00000461 BTC
Sun, 11/10/2013 - 13:57 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

The more BC's that are mined, the harder the computations become.  In the end only the high end and deep pocketed will be mining.  aka those who have sufficient venture capital backing.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 14:02 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

These Bitcoin threads are getting downright stupid.

I've yet to see any of the pumpers explain this story,

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-26/feds-confiscate-record-29-milli...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 14:05 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

What's there to explain? They could have gotten it out of Ulbricht through torture, or he could have kept the password in a text file on his hard drive, considering how lax he was in regards to setting up the site.

You're really scraping the bottom of the barrel if you think this is somehow evidence of bitcoin itself being flawed. If I come across your online banking login, I can rip you off in a heartbeat, too.

 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 14:07 | Link to Comment CH1
CH1's picture

The dude is clinging to his ignorance.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 14:45 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

The USDollar must be defended at all costs.  Arguments about whether Bitcoin is good or not are strictly academic.  It obviously is good, but it obviously will be trashed by the US govvy.  Common sense.

Holding BTC as a form of anti-establishment currency is admirable and if the world decides to go that route, I'm all for it.  But, when the USD starts to unwind, a person has to acknowledge that the first place the falling US govvy will attack is all paper / digital fiats and copies (gold and silver) around the world in ardent defense of the tumbling USD.  So my opinion is that when TSHTF, I don't know if holding a digital form of wealth gives me confidence.  But that's just my bias.

 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:03 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

BEWARE... There Is NOTHING Backing BitCoin, And EVERY Western Gov't Would Like To See It Turn To "INTERNET DUST".

GO WITH REAL 24K GOLD, 8000 YR + MONEY... TALKS!!!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:25 | Link to Comment Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

It's a wet dream for the iRS. The iRS would luv to have a record of your payments and receipts. Trust me if they can't decrypt 256 right now, they are maybe 6 months away from it being trivial.
Global Macro Investor, doesnt account for any other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin. Litecoin has a better implementation of the protocol and it's price does not have the wild swings like Bitcoin.

Anyhow real Spacemonkey's aren't going to fuck with this globalist shit in a significant way. It's not of who we are. We are the ones who would blow up Bitcoin.

Over.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

They can decrypt 1024 with there 512 quantum computer , thats why there is no point encrypting anything any more , just grow some balls and say what you mean .

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:36 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Key length does not mean key strength.  And no, they cannot decrypt everything.  That's why the NSA had to approach all of the major technology players to try and install back-doors.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:04 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

This all drives home the argument that Bitcoin, despite the wishes of bitbugs, can never become a reserve currency.  It might work well as a kind of debit card, however.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:09 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

It can indeed serve as a reserve currency system.  But it is antithetical to the current dollar system.

There can be only one.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:20 | Link to Comment SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Would I be the richest person in the world if I signed a piece of paper and then cut my hand off so there is only one original signature of mine in existence?

That would be a mighty rare signature. Anyone willing to give me $100 Trillion can have this piece of paper with my signature and I'll throw in my hand as a bonus.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:33 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

What a stupid analogy.  I won't waste my time.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:07 | Link to Comment aminorex
aminorex's picture

too late

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...lets all keep our sense of humor. Its only "money" right? ;-)

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Love me these threads.  Get's me feeling a bit insurrectionist.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

I feel the same way when I see Bitcoin:Gold ratio is below 4... and silver is trading at 0.06 bitcoins per ounce (according to www.ounce.me

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:59 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Myself, I think an ounce of silver is worth more than an ounce of gold. 

I think 1 BTC is worth more than both of them.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

In your mind, you are rich!!!!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 21:22 | Link to Comment SonOfSoros
SonOfSoros's picture

I bought some Bitcoins. 

Only because I had spare capital to gamble and am prepared to lose every single penny on my Bitcoin position. 

Other than that, I still personally think Bitcoin is a fad whose fundamentals are no different from fiat currency. Which is, that both are used as mode of payments only if there are other people willing to accept it. 

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 09:21 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Like fiat, but unlike precious metals, bitcoins can be produced in unlimited quantities by men behind a curtain. 

Cui bono?

What could possibly go wrong?

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 10:43 | Link to Comment TheHound73
TheHound73's picture

No. The quantity of Bitcoins is shockingly, frighteningly small. Do some research.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 14:54 | Link to Comment gold-is-not-dead
gold-is-not-dead's picture

don't know what the fuss is about, bitcoin already is the new global monetary system, and a lot more. deal with it.
it went up 50.000 times and it has room to go about 30k times more.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:00 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bitcoin back at $340!  Nice "plunge" ROFL.....

Keep those headlines comin' I need some more lulz....

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:10 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Oh, I can't wait for the Bitcoin to overtake the price of gold!  Hopefully next year.  People like myself and Jeff Berwick are going to be rich rich rich!!

The dullards are still going to be on here grumbling about "intrinsic value" or some crap waiting for the 19th century to make a comeback hahahahaha!!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 21:16 | Link to Comment SonOfSoros
SonOfSoros's picture

So are you part of the 1% yet? 

No? Then keep dreaming, I can't fathom just how rich you are going to get if the big boys are unwilling to participate. 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 22:28 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

They can watch (and lose) from the sidelines for as long as it takes them to figure things out.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 22:37 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

"They can watch (and lose)..."

First down arrow I've given you, you're starting to sound like a pumper instead of an advocate.

I'd stop while I was ahead if I were you.

Sayin.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 23:01 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

I am an adult and a rational actor and I am my own advocate as well as Satoshi's.  Time to pick sides.  Stand and fight with Satoshi for human freedom or stand and fall with the oligarchs.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 03:28 | Link to Comment frenzic
frenzic's picture

Who exactly is this Satoshi I keep hearing about? Freedom is just another word for nothing left to lose.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 22:47 | Link to Comment SonOfSoros
SonOfSoros's picture

Which goes to show how you don't understand how the markets work. 

They won't lose anything as long as fiat currency is still accepted.

Markets are made up of bids/ask and the amount of capital appreciation is limited by the amount of capital the bidders possess as well as how much they are willing to bid for an item. If you poor buggers are only market participants, your whole Bitcoin dream is going bamboozled.

How much capital do you 99%-ers possess again? 

There's a reason why the market moves and it isn't because of small cap investors moving them but rather big boys with large capital moves the markets by being able to bid higher and fulfil their bids. The small cap boys merely attempt to profit off these big price movements by the boys with capital. 

The sheer amount of market particpants and market cap required to make bitcoin a "success" is not something you minority can make up for.

 

Just like the financial markets, Bitcoin is merely a zero-sum game.

 

So apparently, you are the only one who hasn't figured things out and is probably the reason why you are not a 1%-er. Keep your dreams alive buddy! Maybe one day you will be able to rise to the big leagues but that day is not in this life time.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

"They won't lose anything as long as fiat currency is still accepted."

 

Au contraire, they are going to lose a lot during the largest crack-up boom in recorded history.  Some will even take their own lives as in 1929. 

I am currently the minority right now.  We will outmaneuver them and force them to defend an indefensible position.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 23:07 | Link to Comment SonOfSoros
SonOfSoros's picture

With your market cap and capital? 

Fret not, I'll be watching with some popcorn provided I'm not busy making money

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 23:26 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Oh thou shall fret all right, demon spawn of Soros!

Watch me drop a bit in this bucket and see my ripples tear your world apart......

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 04:11 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

So, are you going to be the next Rockefeller or Rothschild?

"They can watch (and lose) from the sidelines" - I bet they will...

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 02:32 | Link to Comment InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

Im glad you admit that you want "get rich quick by doing nothing" pyramid scheme, not real alternative currency and sound money.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 01:27 | Link to Comment Harrison
Harrison's picture

The question is, what *can* they decrypt? NSA has been involved in the development of many crypto algorithms, and the documents Snowden found and released have suggested that the NSA has steered companies toward certain of the algorithms that -- perhaps -- the NSA has found ways to break.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:44 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

a) There is no working quantum computer outside of the lab, and most certainly not one with 512 qubits.

b) With a quantum computer through Shor's algorithm, they can perform prime factorization to the extent of 1024 bits, or whatever. BTC, however, is not based on prime factorization. It's based on a one-way hashing algorithm.

Seriously, I don't know why people with zero background knowledge even comment on the technical detail. I know jack shit about Beyonce's cocktail dresses, or Jack Russell training tips. Consequently, I make no comment on either (nor do I care, but that's a different story).

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:05 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

I find that those with a technical background "get" Bitcoin and those without a technical background do not get it.  Being trained in Cisco, #!/bin/bash programming, VMWare, etc certainly helps.  I started investigating the causes of the 2008 meltdown as it cost me my job at the time.  I began with the idea that we could understand the global financial system the same way we could understand any other network's operation.  So it became evident prima facie that this network was designed to enrich a few players at the expense of the many.

Part of the opposition to Bitcoin also seems rooted in the North American layman's inherent distrust of all things academic, scientific or technical.  Unfortunately, many people are raised in this society to believe that being dumb is being tough.  Play a piano or swing a hammer.  Kierkegaard's famous either/or.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:04 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Ooooh, sorry!  Didn't know you were trained in Cisco!  This allows you to not only "get it", but to actually make blanket generalizations and look down upon the "North American layman" with disdain.  People like you won't last five minutes after the lights go out, whereas we will be playing piano at the gathering after swinging a hammer all day.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:10 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

After 5 pm he's trained in Crisco...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Nice to see the fake libertarians come out in force.  They're all for free markets and shite, until something actually comes along that challenges their American exceptionalism.  Apparently, these ardent gold bugs still believe the US Dollar is once again going to become pegged to gold and will buy them merchandise and services.  Oh, so sad when they learn that no such thing will be occurring and their sacred "dollar" will instead be relegated to the dustbin of history where it so rightfully belongs.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:33 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

No dipshit, I believe your precious "cryptocurrencies" will be followed up by biometrics. PERIOD. FULL STOP. If I cannot conduct a private transaction without whipping out fucking phones, then you can go FUCK YOURSELF and YOUR FAKE FUCKING LIBERTARIANISM. Other than that, I'm cool...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

There's no reason to believe Bitcoin users (who are using Bitcoin because of it's anonymous properties) would suddenly choose to encorporate biometrics that would compromise their anonymity.  Your argument is illogical.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

I'm sooo scared about solar flares and EMP!  It's gonna make my Bitcoin totally worthless!

What episode of Doomsday Preppers did you star in?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:33 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

That fact that you dismiss grave emergencies to the very foundations of our technological societies which are not only possible, but eventually likely, illuminates the kind of blinkered, small-picture thinking and typical navel-gazing that I find so prevalent among the techno-narcissistic.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Suppose an EMP did happen and actually took out the majority of telecommunication equipment on Earth?  We would rebuild, replace, the network would come back online and the blockchain is business as usual.  Natural disasters do happen and time still goes forwards, not backwards.

Timestamps are a wonderful thing.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Wow.  Simply "Wow".

Your ignorance is utterly breathtaking.  An EMP would do far more than merely "take out the majority of telecommunication equipment on Earth" --- it would destroy essentially ALL electronic devices and systems OF EVERY KIND, instantly sending us back to the early 19th century and inevitably resulting in the deaths by starvation, exposure and disease of tens or hundreds of millions --- and that's just within the USA.

But hey, as long as your blockchain remains recoverable on at least one computer, all would be well, right?

LOL

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:52 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Basically, your whole premise is that so few humans would survive such an incident that we just shouldn't bother with any more technical advancements?  Tell me why you think central banking would survive?  Or why there would be any payment method to transfer your gold coins to other cities?  Maybe we should all just kill ourselves NOW before the EMP that could happen at any moment in the next 2,000 years!!

Nice thinkin' Tex!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Nice false dichotomy argument there, buddy.

My opinion of your ability to make a logical and rational argument continues to fall with your every post.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

If it were in fact false you should be able to refute it pretty easily?  Should humanity give up on all progress and instead start covering everything in EMP proof shielding?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

In which way is "preparing for a global-class Carrington event" NOT total hyperbole, and just about as far removed from logic and rationality as one might get?

Personally, I've heard stories about the downfall of mankind in regards to "PlanetX" (fucking LOL), Nostradamus, planetary collision; I've heard that the "lord shall return to judge us all"; and I've heard this were to happen in 1995, 1999, 2000, 2005, 2012, 2013, and now possibly again in 2014.

But you know what - jack shit happened in all of those cases. And the extreme likelihood is that in the event we do experience solar flares, the damage will be local, not global.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:34 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

I tried to warn them.... ZOG is going to stage a false flag solar EMP attack to stop Bitcoin.  Andromeda galaxy and planet Nibiru are both working with the Fed.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:58 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

See what I found. All these catastrophic carrington events. You should probably start making contingency plans right away.

http://www.space.com/12584-worst-solar-storms-sun-flares-history.html

 

On a more serious note:

"Ice cores contain thin nitrate-rich layers that can be analyzed to reconstruct a history of past events before reliable observations; the data from Greenland ice cores was gathered by Kenneth G. McCracken[12] and others. These show evidence that events of this magnitude—as measured by high-energy proton radiation, not geomagnetic effect—occur approximately once per 500 years, with events at least one-fifth as large occurring several times per century.[13] These similar but much more extreme cosmic ray events however may originate outside the Solar system and even outside the galaxy. Less severe storms have occurred in 1921 and 1960, when widespread radio disruption was reported. TheMarch 1989 geomagnetic storm knocked out power across large sections of Quebec, Canada."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859#Similar_events

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

An EMP would do far more than merely "take out the majority of telecommunication equipment on Earth" --- it would destroy essentially ALL electronic devices and systems OF EVERY KIND, instantly sending us back to the early 19th century and inevitably resulting in the deaths by starvation, exposure and disease of tens or hundreds of millions --- and that's just within the USA.

Any chance at being a little bit more specific on what you're referring to here?? 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Sorry, I thought the EMP scenario was sufficiently well-known as to not need elaboration.

Any significantly powerful EMP (electromagnetic pulse) generated by a high-atmospheric nuclear explosion or by a coronal mass ejection would burn out essentially every non-hardened electronic device and network within the area affected --- every computer, every automobile, every microwave oven, and every electrical transformer and substation.  On a nationwide or worldwide level, the functioning technological level of society would effectively revert to that of the early 19th century; without, of course, a society and population prepared to exist at such a suddenly-reduced level.  Not only would the electrical grid be down for many months if not years, but food distribution would come to a near-complete halt due to the lack of machinery to harvest and transport that food, not to mention the disablement of virtually all water and sewage systems.  It would be a power failure on an indefinite basis, without relief supplies coming in from unaffected areas, as there would be NO unaffected areas.  Mass starvation and deaths due to exposure are guaranteed, and society as we know it might NEVER recover from such an event.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Right...  so don't design or buy more efficient computers, cars, trains, currency, whatever else because an EMP could happen any moment!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:17 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Nice non sequitur as well as false dichotomy argument there, buddy.

My opinion of your ability to make a logical and rational argument continues to fall with your every post.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

So if this EMP was really such a great concern why not develop and adopt crypto-currencies and at the same time make sure our data centers are redundant, secure and as well shielded, (maybe underground?) as possible?

Wouldn't that be a great thought, hey?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:33 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

There is such a thing as natural EMP's ya know...one just missed us back in July.

But you're a highly technical kinda guy, you already know that ;-)

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

....and we've missed and also been hit by numerous asteroids.  Life goes on.  When you are on a rock in space you just gotta roll with the punches.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:43 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Lemme see if I can encapsulate what you're proposing regarding BitCoin & EMP. You want governments to harden infrastructure so that BitCoin will survive an EMP (natural or manmade) or the individual owners of computers that people use to mine BitCoins?

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:47 | Link to Comment Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

alternatively he could just buy gold and not worry about it...

But that's so 'yesterday' right...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:02 | Link to Comment Rusty Shorts
Rusty Shorts's picture

His name was fonestar..

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment tenpanhandle
tenpanhandle's picture

could you be more specific? 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

ZOG is going to stage a false flag solar flare attack to stop Bitcoin.  Andromeda and Nibiru are working with the Fed.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:34 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

 

I know electromagnetism, it's the scenarios you bring up that don't seem to have any connection to reality. 

On a nationwide or worldwide level, the functioning technological level of society would effectively revert to that of the early 19th century; without, of course, a society and population prepared to exist at such a suddenly-reduced level.

 

The only thing to really be concerned of is EMR, which is already managed to a high degree so pretty low possibility your scenario could happen on a wide-scale. 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:04 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

James, I don't know what you are talking about here --- it is a widely-recognized fact that outside of the military, most electronics and electronic systems are NOT shielded or hardened against EMP in any way.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:30 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

All electornic circuits / electronics have to deal with this phenomenon. Remember the NSA having problems with arc bursts? 

 

That's why I'm wondering what specifically you're talking about, I assume it's of the nuclear weapon / sun variety. Anyway, it's not something conceivable at a planet-wide, or nationwide scale.  

http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/european-standards/harmonised-st...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

That's why I'm wondering what specifically you're talking about, I assume it's of the nuclear weapon / sun variety.

Correct.

Anyway, it's not something conceivable at a planet-wide, or nationwide scale. 

I have no idea why you would make such an absurd and ignorant statement.  It is not only conceivable, and possible, it is INEVITABLE in the long run, from a coronal mass ejection from the sun if not from a high-altitude nuclear detonation or a gamma ray burst (the latter being the least likely in the near term).  The fact that the US military has made a concerted effort to harden many of their critical systems against EMP would certainly seem to make it "conceivable" to them.  Or is the US military just another bunch of "conspiracy theorists" in your eyes?

Really, James, sometimes you make such off-the-wall comments that it is hard to know how to even respond to such nonsense.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:33 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

The fact that the US military has made a concerted effort to harden many of their critical systems against EMP would certainly seem to make it "conceivable" to them.  Or is the US military just another bunch of "conspiracy theorists" in your eyes?

Obviously military targets would be prioritized by EMP based weapons and it's pretty clear they'd be good against such targets if unprotected. However, as the scale of target goes up down goes effectiveness i.e. you couldn't go after the entire US. Even with a nuclear weapon you'd be limited to basically city-wide damage.  So, the idea that the entire world would be tossed back into the the 19th century is absurd. The sun is a different scenario but would be pretty easy (and has been) to prepare for increased solar flare activity and lots of system are in place to deal with varying EMR.  Lately people seem to be talking a lot about EMP 'cause there's military $$$ in it. 
Sun, 11/10/2013 - 21:21 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

James, I do not mean to insult you here, but you simply do not know what you are talking about regarding the risks of EMP.  I suggest you research the matter, even superficially, and if you do so you will find that even ONE high-altitude nuclear blast, enhanced for maximum EMP production, could seriously damage, if not destroy, the electronics and power grid of a large fraction of the continental USA.  This very scenario has been discussed so frequently, by so many different experts, from so many different angles, that it almost astounds me that you are not aware of it --- and further astounds me that you refuse to admit your ignorance on the subject.

But why don't you start here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_electromagnetic_pulse

http://www.livescience.com/38848-emp-solar-storm-danger.html

channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/doomsday-castle/articles/the-threat-of-emp/

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 22:33 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

The truth is no one (unless it's classified) knows what would happen in a a current nuclear scenario, but it's a huge stretch to believe it would wipe out a large section of the power grid (i.e. state-wide). I'm not saying I doubt it would be devastating, but send the world back to 19th century? No.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 22:48 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I'm sorry, James, if you find the truth unsettling, but apparently you, like most Americans, would rather just stick your head in the sand and pretend it doesn't exist.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment Trampy
Trampy's picture

The truth is no one (unless it's classified) knows what would happen in a a current nuclear scenario, but it's a huge stretch to believe it would wipe out a large section of the power grid (i.e. state-wide). I'm not saying I doubt it would be devastating, but send the world back to 19th century? No.

Classified?  Coming from someone who had both clearance and need to know to examine in great detail all of the world's historical (and multitudes of hypothetical, or the quaint British notional) nuclear accidents: almost all of which you've never heard of ... you're blowing pure methane out your ass.

Any prediction of such future outcomes is by definition GIGO, because they suppose a hypothetical release and then consider a range of possible conditions of interacting phenomena (including human actions) by using models most often constructed of exact same anal extraction technique as yours.  It's obvious that you've never worked on classified scenario evaluations.

Sure, there's a lot of Kool-Aid drinking going on in government "think tanks" just as anywhere else.  I recently had the very difficult experience of dealing with a Dyson vacuum cleaner with a manufacturing defect under warranty.  It was an excruciating ordeal because it seemed that everyone there drinks their own Kool-Aid and somehow came to think that anyone who claimed to have a defective machine must be lying and had abused it somehow.

Classified government scenario evaluations, with some exceptions, are often just as stupid, or maybe even more stupid than the public ones.  

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:49 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

I said no one knows *unless* it's classified, suggesting that as far as I know there isn't solid public research in this arena. But please, enlighten us commoners with your classified intel.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment sleigher
sleigher's picture

It won't burn out my tube driven HAM radio.  So at least me and some dude somewhere can talk about how screwed we all are.  LOL

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment sleigher
sleigher's picture

Now now, just because I am grey beard doesn't mean I can't build a house, shoot an animal, or any of the plethora of things that will be required of someone when the lights go out.  I spent many years swinging that hammer as well and pushing those bits.  I enjoy both actually.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:37 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Whether you like it or not, that does actually have a grain of truth to it. A key difference between the States and Europe is that anti-intellectualism is marketed, and - very oddly - held out as a strength in some circles. Personally, I would much rather have an intelligent wo/man as leader, than "some guy I'd like to have a beer with". I mean, sheesh, I have NEVER heard anyone market themselves here in their UK on their "folksiness". Yet, that's a continuous talking point at every US election.

That doesn't mean I don't think our party leaders here in the UK aren't total sleazeballs, however.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Bitcoin FTW!

Dem quantum computers sure is gon break all deh codez tho!! But I'm not too worried, all my btc were lost in a tragic boating accident, quantum compute that bitchez

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:10 | Link to Comment jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yawn-  we've seen this same crap before, with Scientology-  create something so pseudo-intellectual that only the "smart" kids get it....   Because they're always the biggest dupes in the room..

As the man said-  Vanity,  it's my favorite sin.....

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 03:33 | Link to Comment TheHound73
TheHound73's picture

Maybe try a different brand of coffee?  Is a legitimate digital currency thus impossible?

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 10:15 | Link to Comment Saro
Saro's picture

Anyone can "get it" if they take the time to do so: https://www.khanacademy.org/economics-finance-domain/core-finance/money-and-banking/bitcoin/v/bitcoin-what-is-it

A lot of people here would rather spin conspiracy theories and spew venom, though.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:11 | Link to Comment wintermute
wintermute's picture

Great job carrying the sword fonestar - reminds me of Braveheart!

I too have worked for decades in IT, and know that Bitcoin is totally robust. As the Federal Reserve says Bitcoin is a technological "tour de force".

Cyrptocurrency is the future of money. ZH is at the forefront of making this development known to the public.

 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 23:09 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Thanks.  But I am not sure if ZH is at the front of trying to make this known to the public or bash it?  Most of the articles here take the view that the government is going to regulate and kill Bitcoin, Bitcoin is a fad waiting to die with Alf and Beanie Babies, Bitcoin is a virtual currency pyramid scheme, Bitcoin is plunging, etc, etc, etc.

At least I am a real contrarian who isn't scared to stake his reputation on this technology.  And why not when we have had Bitcoin's cousin Bittorrent working very well in the etherwilds for several years with such powerful and well funded enemies?

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:57 | Link to Comment wintermute
wintermute's picture

I know the PM-only guys will trash the idea of cryptocurrency but I think ZH itself is neutral overall. Headline hype pulls in readers. Obviously the Senate looking into Bitcoin has absolutely zero to do with the market taking a breather after a 150% run up, Tyler knows that too.

Tyler is a trading guru (or two) and it would not surprise me one iota if he put a "pocket change" investment in Bitcoin earlier this year. I think the first article was at $30. Even $5k invested then would be a nice sum now with loads of upside potential as the article says.

Agreed, Satoshi was inspired by Bittorrent and he did everything to ensure his invention could survive government interference. Even in the highly unlikely event that Bitcoin is stopped there are 50 clone-coins out there, many with software variations. Cryptocurrency, like nuclear weapons, is here to stay.


 

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 02:17 | Link to Comment Trampy
Trampy's picture

Even in the highly unlikely event that Bitcoin is stopped there are 50 clone-coins out there, many with software variations.  Cryptocurrency, like nuclear weapons, is here to stay.

Pray tell what kind of numeric odds you estimate for that "highly unlikely event" ... and how did you derive that number?   In the domain of risk assessment, we use 1E-6/annum as the dividing line between Design Basis Accident (DBA) and Severe Accident or Beyond-DBA.  But we calculate accident frequencies using fault trees and event trees with branch ratios based either on empirical failure rates or (hopefully conservative) engineering judgement.  But they never can have completeness because the human mind can never be fully complete in foreseeing all possible things that can go wrong.  And the problem becomes impossible to solve when you have to consider human factors and the very real possibility (experienced at both TMI-2 and Chernobyl-4) that human actions by the licensed reactor operator would actually cause a reactor accident.  Neither of those actual accident sequences would have ever been considered credible (P >>1E-6/annum) in a risk assessment, yet they certainly happened (P=1).

Murphy's Law: if something can go wrong, it will go wrong.  That's a certainty! 

Much more to this specific point, Charles Perrow elucidated Normal Accident Theory which was named after his excellent book: Normal Accidents: Living with High-Risk Technologies, 1984.  See http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/codeq/accident/accident.pdf

If there already are competing schemes, for that's what they are, schemes, then competitive forces aka markets and their manipulations could lead to changes in balance of power among them.  While as you say the genie is out of the bottle as with nuclear weapons, note the pluralisms in both.  The reason the U.S. chose five different designs for our Enduring Stockpile was evaluation of the possible odds of one or more of those designs developing problems over time.  They considered impacts to the stockpile if one or more of those five weapon designs had to be retired.  Five was considered to pose acceptable risk after running the numbers.  Clearly it would be folly to put all your eggs in just one basket.   Ditto for BTC, especially because of limited data.

It seems hubris to compare BTC to gold as equals, when there are already a number of schemes that could be used instead of BTC.  Gold is unique.  BTC is not.

Just because there is yet no known fatal flaw in BTC does not mean that none will ever be found.  If history is  any guide, as it should be, the more unanimous an opinion, the more likely it will be proven wrong, partly because of the great opportunity afforded to parties who become aware of such a flaw and trade accordingly.  While there are of yet no obvious ways to sell short BTC, anything is possible.  CFD merchants might start offering as "spread-betting" in the U.K.     

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 06:06 | Link to Comment wintermute
wintermute's picture

You are comparing complex centralized systems with a highly distributed, decentralized, consensus driven, open-source peer-to-peer system. The btc ledger: blockchain is duplicated on several million computers all over the planet. Just one instance needs to survive to enable the btc system to be "restarted", with all balances intact, in the event of sustained failure.

The probability of survival is high because it can be repaired. The btc software can evolve very fast as it is maintained by many developers all over the world. The mathematics underpinning its cryptography also underpin most secure communications on the internet. If btc is broken crptographically then so is your fiat internet bank account and credit card acceptance on websites. 

No one is saying gold will become cheap or common, the point is that btc can approach the gold stockpile in value.

 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:02 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Wow...just wow, have some moar stereotype to go with your generalities.

"I find that those with a technical background "get" Bitcoin and those without a technical background do not get it."

I have never seen a computer (or computer code for that matter) grow a tomato but I have seen highly technical things like nuclear reactors, power grids, jets, autos...you name it...fail.

"Part of the opposition to Bitcoin also seems rooted in the North American layman's inherent distrust of all things academic, scientific or technical."

You mean like Lord Keynes monetary theory, global warming hysterics or GMO's?

"Unfortunately, many people are raised in this society to believe that being dumb is being tough.  Play a piano or swing a hammer."

You claiming you have the "technical expertise" to build a piano?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

I don't think it is the "North American layman's inherent distrust of all things academic ... " that makes many people belittle bitcoin though some do for those reasons, it is likely more having to do with being screwed over so much by so many things going on in this country and around the world.   It is not the technical details of bitcoins' implementation that interests me, it is the lack of physical gold and silver relative to the amount of fiat wealth that exists around the world that interests me in bitcoin.  Along with the threat, and real, slowly creeping in, capital controls on capital ... how are the wealthy in europe, the US and elsewhere around the world going to get their money out of their respective countries ... other than gold and silver which it can't be simple transporting a ton of silver or 200 lbs of gold around from one country to another.  There is an answer ...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:50 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

I don't think it is the "North American layman's inherent distrust of all things academic ... " that makes many people belittle bitcoin though some do for those reasons, it is likely more having to do with being screwed over so much by so many things going on in this country and around the world.   It is not the technical details of bitcoins' implementation that interests me, it is the lack of physical gold and silver relative to the amount of fiat wealth that exists around the world that interests me in bitcoin.  Along with the threat, and real, slowly creeping in, capital controls on capital ... how are the wealthy in europe, the US and elsewhere around the world going to get their money out of their respective countries ... other than gold and silver which it can't be simple transporting a ton of silver or 200 lbs of gold around from one country to another.  There is an answer ...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:33 | Link to Comment rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

C:\>what is a qubit?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:17 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

I think it is an ancient unit of measurement based on the distance between the elbow and the outstretched middle finger.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:13 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

I find it hilarious that the strongest argument you have against Bitcoin is if civilization as we know it is plunged into the dark ages, akak.

"I sure showed those bitcoin dudes, too bad I can't post about it to gloat - better go off and kill some rats for dinner."

Hahah. *whew*

Its like you want everything to fail so you can sit in your bunker and watch the world fall apart around you. There are other people who feel that way, they're commonly in their teen years and want things to go to shit, because they don't see the point in anything, man.

So, you're an emo-prepper? Just wanted to check.

 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

EM, like so many today, I see that analytical logic is not your forte.

I never made any such argument as you suggest I did --- nor, for that matter, did I make any sort of argument here against Bitcoin itself.  I merely pointed out that Fonestar was ignorant for dismissing the very real threat of EMP, not necessarily just to the use of Bitcoin, but to civilization itself.

Really, this is Logic 101 stuff.  Please do not put words into my mouth.

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:59 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

ha ha.. luvit..   now  walk  three meters,, by three meters...

.. oops, the vertical part is a bit of a challenge 

:-) whats'a cubit?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:47 | Link to Comment One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

Don’t tell that to Eric Ladizinsky, co-founder and chief scientist of a company called D-Wave. Because Ladizinsky’s team has already built a 512-qubit quantum computer. And they’re already selling them to wealthy corporations, too.

According to an article published in Scientific American, Google and NASA have now teamed up to purchase a 512-qubit quantum computer from D-Wave. The computer is called “D-Wave Two” because it’s the second generation of the system. The first system was a 128-qubit computer. Gen two is now a 512-qubit computer.

http://www.infowars.com/skynet-rising-google-acquires-512-qubit-quantum-...

Not a problem if you have quantum cryptography but there's lag time before we see it and the other guy is working his quantum computer.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:53 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

All that computing power and knowledge, so little wisdom.  -Vendetta

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

With all do respect, you have no idea what sophisticated equipment the NSA possesses. They have a secret budget that is unlimited. They may have invented shit that would fry your nerdy brain. Stop being such a fucking know it all asshole!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 23:25 | Link to Comment Trampy
Trampy's picture

With all do respect, ... They may have invented shit that would fry your nerdy brain. Stop being such a fucking know it all asshole!

Unassailable, despite the bad grammar and misspelling!

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:46 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

so.. does "may" imply right or permission?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:31 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

And it will remain just that for the IRS... a dream.  Unless you're stupid or you like to prance through a Crips neighbourhood wearing a big red bullseye, you wouldn't have a Bitcoin address tied to your real person.  And that's supposing they do in fact try and regulate Bitcoin... which is regulating the internet... which is basically impossible.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:23 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Why am I not surprised to see the same type of morons harangue Bitcoin as they did with the PC?

1988: "Who would want a computer in their house?  Do you want a nuclear weapon too?"

2013: "Who would want the most advanced and equitable payment system?  Do you want economic justice too?"

 

Keep trying to take us back to the abacus and banging flints together dipshits.  In the meantime we will contiune to reap 1000% profits as calculated in your blood-soaked "dollars".

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:33 | Link to Comment InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

wow, reading articles like this leaves no doubt that bicoin is digital tulip mania... ZH should filter out BS like this or nobody will take this site seriously.

Bitcoin is nothing more than a pyramid scheme where insiders and early adopters are getting rich off of suckers who join in late. If someone would wante to create REAL alternative currency to fight establishments FIAT, then its value would be tied to basket of goods and services... but all bitcoin hypers oppose this because they hope to get rich quick by doing nothing, but real wealth dont come from doing nothing, you either produce something of real value or you transfer/steal wealth from somebody else, when one day you are poor shmuck and then you become "bitcoin millionaire" then somebody lost that wealth that you gained, dont forget that next time you start to hype bitcoin as next best thing since sliced bread.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:47 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

You must be some shill for TPTB.  Supposing someone made a competitive currency "backed" by something tangible?  All the feds would have to do is go and confiscate that or get their globalist buddies to do the same.  There goes your currency backing up in smoke!  Bitcoin's strength is in it's ethereal nature. 

Bitcoin is real but most of you can't even distinguish between something that is real, something that is unreal and something corporeal.  So I advise you check yourself into a mental institution, the software you are currently using is obviously a product of your delusions and paranoia.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:57 | Link to Comment InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

What are you talking about? are you total idiot? what exactly would feds confiscate if lets say bitcoin value would be determined by a basket of goods and services? inflation eats away value of the dollar sot that basket costs more in terms of dollars but it would still be worth 1 btc... and there would be no speculation and get rich quick pyramid pump and dump... so... what would they confiscate? that basket? what are you rambling about?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:14 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

How would such a system even work?  The fact is that your basket of commodities would still need to be worth something as valued in some currency.  The only pyramid scheme is the "dollar", for fuck sakes it's right on the dollar!!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:25 | Link to Comment InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

yeah, "how can this even work if im not getting rich quick by doing nothing"... this would work as any sound money should work. dumbass.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:31 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

So you think the hashing power used in production of the Bitcoin is "doing nothing"?  You really are a bright one, aren't you?

How do you get light in that cave you are in?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:40 | Link to Comment InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

you are like a child... your arguments dont even make sense at all.

ok, so i buy 1 bitcoin for a roll of toilet paper, then I DO NOTHING and suddenly that bitcoin is "worth" so much that i can buy big flatscreen tv with it... I DID NOTHING and somehow i gained wealth, where do you think that wealth came from? out of thin air? no, somebody lost that wealth, some sucker who bought bitcoin late.

And even if you "mine" bitcoin that doesnt mean that this "work" is automatically worth something... i could do a lot of work buy digging hole and filling it back up...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:51 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

The smart people realize what is happening.  We are witnessing the implosion of an antiquated system by the sheer gravity of a superior system.  So to answer your question, the intelligent people are not spending their Bitcoin on toilet paper or anything else.

So if you will permit me to be terse, thank-you for being.....   you.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:31 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

"The smart people".  You are making an assumption, and sound like an Obamanaut circa '08.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:56 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Wrong.  The smart people stayed home and didn't bother voting in 2008.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:40 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Here's a question for you....   what would you rather have?  The aggreagate total of all computational power on Earth or one ounce of gold?

After all, you cannot hold computational power in your hand now can you?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:45 | Link to Comment InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

i bet you think that by doing a lot of hard work and digging million holes and filling them back up you somehow create a lot of wealth, right? solving pointless math puzzles doesnt automatically create wealth, even if thos puzzles are "very hard"...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:52 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Energy expenditures, finite supply and digging holes?  Hmm... sounds a bit like Gold.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 22:12 | Link to Comment superflex
superflex's picture

"How would such a system even work?"

C'mon Fonestar.  Your an uber smart IT gut versed in Cisco and the PC.

Figure it out, Copernicus.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@Inspector

Hey, which stock are you describing? You know, where you buy it and then it gains in value and then...

Oh right, you were trying to be clever about Bitcoin. Make sure you spell it right, you'll probably end up getting paid in it before long.

 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:47 | Link to Comment Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

Even MIT came out today and said Bitcoin is a joke:

http://www.technologyreview.com/view/521521/bitcoin-vulnerability-could-...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:52 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

We are familiar with the "selfish miner" theory. 

First of all, you would need at least 25% - 33% (or greater) percentage of miners to go "selfish".

Second, that doesn't change the fact Bitcoin is capped at 21,000,000 BTC.

Third, it doesn't account for how the market would react to a "selfish miner" pool scenario.  Would it cause a dumping of Bitcoin or a scramble to buy more?

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:12 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...still waiting to see that theoretical breach in action...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:19 | Link to Comment Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

You and fonestar are quite a tag team. How much is the House of Rothschild paying these days?

Over.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:28 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

You're a shill for the Rothschild banker.  Keep your filthy, blood-soaked "dollars" and choke on them!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:43 | Link to Comment EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh you know I can't speak for foneatar at as he sits over in the east wing, but Scarlett Johansen is presently sucking my cock under the desk, so yeah, I can't complain about Rothschildian compensation.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 16:23 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

...and I forgot to add that most miners would not go selfish on principle.  The hackers and the Bitcoin advocates are some of the most devoted and ethical people you could ever meet.  The vast majority of hackers at DEFCON said they would not work for the NSA and would not want anything to do with the NSA no matter how much money they were offered.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:06 | Link to Comment Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

Spot the Fed, a Defcon tradition, is just an opportunity for the kids to be the first to submit their resumes. But the Feds just wanna talk to those who captured the flag and read through the Snort log files. They bring nice big offer letters in their briefcases.

You're knowledge is lacking about this too.

Over.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

Your golden calf, the "dollar" is over.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 21:05 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

fonestar,  don't harass and criticize the bitcoin detractors.  Their sentiments are all understandable.  Just let it go, it is okay.  I am a bitcoin fan and in process of getting my account set up (painful process it seems).  Had I acted on Trace Meyers' article in Jan 2011 I would have been able to quit my high stress, mega hour job that I am still doing.  Ironically, it was my 78 to 98 hr work weeks travelling constantly back in 2011 that stopped me from acting on my instincts about bitcoin and I am still paying the price today working ridiculous hours in an interesting and thankless but decent paying job.  Being in the top 10% of income earners is not a fucking picnic but having been homeless it beats the shit out of living in a tent.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

"BEWARE... There Is NOTHING Backing BitCoin, And EVERY Western Gov't Would Like To See It Turn To "INTERNET DUST".

GO WITH REAL 24K GOLD, 8000 YR + MONEY... TALKS!!!"

Hey BBB,

I am by no means a tech-guy, but I do see a disadvantage here.

I see BC as just another GLD (paper gold trading, just without any gold). GLD has been successful in removing demand from physical gold holding by the individual and placing the transactions onto an electronic network guaranteed to remove transparency and privacy. Just imagine what the price of physical gold and silver would be if those 'investments' in GLD/SLV never took place...! I remember the months before GLD launched, the writers of the day touted GLD to be the best thing ever and that big-brother would be reeling from the free trade of these ETF's. oops.

BC appears to me to be sold that there will be privacy in the digital world. This assumption seems flawed due to the fact that the electronic realm is completely controlled by some powerful players already. Having these powerful players appear to be behind the curve is just part of the OP. they are at least one decade ahead right now if not by an order of magnitude.

This system is just another twist in the desire for a global currency, when the ultimate one is time proven, real money. If we have a crash,EMP,insurrection,collapse etc., BC will be of questionable value and questionable transactional value. Where a gold of silver coin would seal a deal on contact.

I am not doubting there is value to be added with BC, or that it does represent a middle-finger to paper currency and those who do not follow their oaths. I simply think I can do better.

However time will tell which is correct, and one of the two has at least a 6,500 year jump behind it.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:05 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

The senate/house/whatever committee "investigating" Bitcoin has the term Homeland Security in its name.
The Fed, BIS, BoE, ECB, BoJ, etc., etc., etc., have absolutely no involvement with this so called "digital currency"... other than probably some sneaking hunch that this shit has to be smashed.

Now, whatchuall thinks gonna happen?

It will not be good, happy, fun, everybody have a grand fucking time.

let me put it this way.
In the last analysis, as one approaches the (supposed) final mining of the last Bitcoin, those who've Personally Acquired the most Powerful computing systems Wins.
That, my friends is NOT inclusive, diverse, for the benefit of our noble kind and welfaring society as a whole, but a scam perpetrated by the wealthy for the wealthy is how the argument is gonna be structured By the Government to fuck the wind out of the Holy Grail, for it's in competition with the People's Money.
LOL

And they ain't gettin' any tax money off of it.
Fucking IRS job, here, folks.

If they can force you to take it up the rear with Health Insurance, they can force you to....

This, they cannot ignore and must punish those few making money without helping the Free Shit Army (er excuse me, those less fortunate)

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

i was calculating the value of my toe jam..

I tried to get it over a gram or so on a scale V a pre- 1932 little gold piece.

hmpfp.. having a hard time getting the variables in to equal out on each side....

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:34 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Cray supercomputer ??????

oy.. what time convectsity does that come from??

oh.. an um.. sorry knuck..  jumped in a bit impulsively..

but U R correct..  this all is a CF of the highest order.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 18:21 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Yeah I can't wait until they stop this Bartcoin thingy or whatever it's called, just like they stopped all those P2P illegal movie downloads. Um oh er BitTorrent is now 40% of ALL internet traffic (compared to 13% for ALL web surfing). But oh they're going to make it illegal (and the price of something when it becomes illegal usually goes down...right?) Hey but when there's an EMP and the sun blows up and they shut down the internet then you'll use your trained Bigfoot to steal canned food for you...etc etc.

Don't mean to jump on you Knukles, love your work BTW

 

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

The sun blowing up will not necessarily be the end of your bit coins.

You could load your bitcoin wallet onto micro rocket and fire it into space.

Thus when everything settles down a bit you could retrieve it and become the new super elite wealthy that you've always dreamed...

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:41 | Link to Comment BlackChicken
BlackChicken's picture

"then you'll use your trained Bigfoot to steal canned food for you...etc etc."

I truly laughed my ass off on that comment, in fact I still am as I type this.

THANKS.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 19:19 | Link to Comment Exponere Mendaces
Exponere Mendaces's picture

@knukles must come from the school of "aw shucks, you can't ever win 'gainst the gov't"

Damn, you are SO right, we all should just lie down and let them fuck us over until we're dead.

Did you grow up during the 60's, so you had your dreams crushed? It just seems you think daddy government is going to be the big bad wolf and the wee citizenry should try to do anything about it.

They probably would've tarred and feathered you back in the 1770's for that kind of talk, thinking you were a sympathizer towards the King of England.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:38 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

I believe the Bitcoin will outlive the USD (FRN) in its current incarnation.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 21:08 | Link to Comment Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

I do too, I trust and respect math (bitcoin) and gold more than any politician or banker.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 23:15 | Link to Comment fonestar
fonestar's picture

vires in numeris bitchez!

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 17:03 | Link to Comment Mad Mohel
Mad Mohel's picture

Digital currency = digital manipulation = fingerbanging

Mon, 11/11/2013 - 00:46 | Link to Comment XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Easy come, easy go.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 14:11 | Link to Comment Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Whatever. Obviously you think it is unhackable and has no flaws whatsoever.

I see plenty of other great comments here that blow your grand theories all to hell.

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 14:19 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

The annunaki made us to mine gold. Humans are born, humans die, to love gold. That is all.

/alienz

Sun, 11/10/2013 - 15:06 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Troof

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!