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The Dummies' Guide To What The Jobs Report Really Means
For almost two years (most recently this week), we have been vociferously explaining the dismal fact that "quantity" of jobs in this recovery is no match for dreadful "quality" of jobs as the "born-again jobs scam" contonues to roll on. Bloomberg's Matthew Klein has decided that nine pictures are better than a thousand words as he explains (in short sentences and simple charts) what the jobs report really means...
Via Bloomberg's Matthew Klein (interactive graphic here),
And (as we noted previously)...
...So Bernanke promises to keep the money market and repo rates----that is, the poker chips for the casino----at zero until “well after” the unemployment rate drops below 6.5 percent. But it will never get there because the jobs market and Main Street economy are structurally broken. Indeed, measured on a consistent basis, the unemployment rate is still over 11 percent based in the labor force participation rate of late 2008 and is over 13 percent based on the labor force participation rate at the turn of the century.
And no, that can’t be explained away by the baby boomers going on Social Security. During January 2000 there were 75 million Americans over age 16 that did not hold a job. Today there are 102 million in that category---about 27 million more. Yet the number of participants in OASI (old age social security) is up by just 6 million during the same period. Moreover, there is no doubt about what happened the other 21 million citizens: they are on disability, food stamps, welfare or have moved in with friends and relatives or landed on the streets in destitution.
In short, the US economy is failing and the welfare state safety net is exploding. And that means that the true headwind in front of the allegedly “cheap” stock market is an insuperable fiscal crisis that will bring steadily higher taxes, lower spending and a gale-force of permanent anti-Keynesian austerity in the GDP accounts. And for that reason, the Fed’s strategy of printing money until the jobs market has returned to effective “full employment” is completely lunatic.
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A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico.
They are reduced to picking torrtillas from tortilla trees. (interesting sketch on Spanish channel, but canot find it on Youtube.)
Reminds me of this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xQtZcAhZWI
Ouch! :>D
Jobs are never returning unless Repubs and Dems do the peoples will and not Corporate elite will. $ must come out of politics and elected must return to serving "The people".
The likes of "astroturf tea party" and "gimme mine " mentality must been rooted out of public office !
The idea of Washington pols allowed to insider trade must face enforcement we'ld like to see for wall streeters.
Reform the corrupt US political system; get rid of the career politicians (term limits) who just think about the next election, and as a result cater only to big corporate and Wall Street money and special interest group lobbyists.
Astroturf tea party? Try coopted tea party.
One word for you: Automation
Having been in manufacturing I can tell you that more jobs have been lost to machines/robots than people would like to admit.
And, given that the US is massively broke do you think that "bringing back 'jobs'" will do anything more than just strap the cashless poor to those machines so that they can produce goods to sell abroad while STILL making "shareholders" above all others?
The global system has done exactly what it was supposed to do and cannot be blamed: for anything other than becoming ravenous of natural capital.
"Will" cannot overcome the "physical" unless, that is, you believe in "hope" and unicorns... (but that's only self-deception)
Automation is surely significant, and becoming more so! However, it is only one of the symbols of the bigger problems caused by science and technology advancing prodigiously, except when it comes to do with anything regarding human beings, since there "knowledge" is going backwards, since everything was really based on a long history of backing up deceits with destruction, and thus the best and oldest human science was warfare, which was built on success based on deceits, while the monetary system was built on top of that, which resulted in "money" being based on fraud. Therefore, advancing science and technology is mainly employed to be better at being dishonest, and to back that up with violence, which is the way that the potential of automation actually gets employed.
Employment should be seen in the overall context of human ecology, However, real human ecology has its death controls as the central feature, which has actually mainly been the murder systems developed through the history of warfare, which then enabled an economic system to be built on the foundation of fundamentally fraudulent accounting. Automation is an expression of the insane ways that advances in science and technology get channeled through social systems controlled by legalized lies, backed by legalized violence. Unfortunately, there are no good reasons to believe that will get any better in the foreseeable future, since the only way that could happen was IF people were able to agree upon better death control systems, which then would enable better debt control systems. That seems practically impossible, since the masses of mainstream morons, what used to be called the middle class, are no longer able or willing to understand the degree to which they have been brainwashed to believe in almost everything that is the direct opposite of what actually happened.
Automation is a serious problem, because it expresses the ways that science and technology are driving social systems based on lies, backed by violence, in which most people are kept ignorant and afraid, to become amplified by trillions of times, which is impossible to continue to work in the longer term ... which is why many of us are wondering when and how the crazy houses of cards of social systems based on legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, are finally going to have their abilities to continue to back up lies with violence finally collapse into catastrophic chaos!
Unless there was a series of political miracles which enabled a radicalized science of evolutionary ecology to be more understood by more people, then all the rest of the advances in science only feed the current systems of force backed frauds to become more insane, by becoming even more unbalanced. Since that evolutionary ecology necessarily has its death controls as its central feature, but the current systems have developed to have their death controls to be operated through the maximum possible deceits (wherein the controlled opposition is just as deceitful, if not theoretically more so, than those operating the established systems) we are in runaway social insanity situations, which are trillions of times worse than ever before in human history. The same basic problem exists within the emergence of a new kingdom of life, through the computer/machine entities, which also need to develop their own industrial ecologies, while they are operating within fundamentally fraudulent financial accounting systems. There is no doubt that automation is emerging as an increasingly enormous problem within the present economic systems, but those problems are merely a few tips of the iceberg of way bigger problems!
Radical Marijuana, indeed.
Time to move on! We've read yer thesis dozens of times, how about the antithesis and synthesis already?
I would sure LIKE to "move on" ... However, reality is stuck in the same rut, and so too I am. It will take the rough and tumble of life times to see how we MIGHT move on through to some synthesis.
And the ecology says "kill those excess motherfuckers with Obamacare"!
FORWARD SOVIET ONE WORLDERS!
Radical - That explaination of human ecology is something I considered for awhile now. A solution would be a focus on eternal life "Operation Eternity".
We all are coded to wish to and live life as if it is forever.
The cracking of human DNA reveals why cells stop reproducing and die. The race for eternal life is no longer the stuff of myth or religion. The space race was about the death controls you mention but it did ultimately improve our quality of life. The opposite of death controls is life liberation and such a project as Operation Eternity would vastly increase competition in healthcare which the lack of free market in that area is bankrupting the country (along with outsourcing of course).
The Apollo program spurred global curiousity and excitement of where man could go collectively as would this kind of program. Hey, maybe I would have supported healthcare reform in this guise if a stated goal of living to 120 was offered. Anyways, some food for thought.
"we are in runaway social insanity situations, which are trillions of times worse than ever before in human history"
When you make a statement like that you lose all credibility. Your writing is hard enough to follow as it is, then you ask the reader to swallow something that is unverifiable.
It is clear the banking system is the giant squid sucking the air out of the economy.
Get rid of the parasites and the system will work.
What if sheeples decided not to shop for a week?
Even less with good timing. If a widespread shopping strike started on Black Friday, TPTB would be in a full-blown PANIC by Saturday morning.
It's more likely that a herd of cats would avoid licking 200 open cans of tuna than the consumerized baboons of modern civilization will avoid their pleasure.
And they'd chop off a bunch of "excess" workforce... not condeming them for such, it's just that that's how it would go since that's what they are tasked to do (manage costs). One ought to see all the ramifications before declaring something to be campaign worth embarking on...
Sadly, it is more probable that the parasites are going to kill their hosts.
Talking shit about banks will be a punishable offense in the future.
And for that reason, the Fed’s strategy of printing money until the jobs market has returned to effective “full employment” is completely lunatic.
Why do they never say things are completely 'Francis Sawyer', or 'Trav777', or 'MDB'........??
I think that you've got a clear case for filing a discrimination suit!
First they came for Francis Sawyer. I did nothing.
Then they came for Trav777. I watched.
Then they came for MDB (whoa! he's still around- better watch out MDB, you're in the cross-hairs!). I was glad that it wasn't me.
And then they came for lunatic. Well, being a lunatic myself I then turned around and saw that there wasn't anyone around (because lunatics are in their own world) to speak for me...
It's been a pleasure to know you...
I know I'd make a damn good telemarketer.
They don't print to help people get jobs... They print to juice the financial markets and allow the 1% to flip it around for a profit..
It's all papering over the problem of insolvency, which, if not for the mounds of dollars ebing handed over to them, the banks would stand naked and collapsed. A bad thing to allow if all of your control is through banking... Any "profit" is secondary and is small (when taking in real inflation, and that which is coming): yeah, the crooks at the top manage to disproportionately accumulate way more than what any real sense of fair markets would otherwise dictate, but has it really ever been any different?
It happened in the past, but what we are in now is an exponential increase of that. And I don't see that the wealth generated is dimished due to inflation. These guys control all markets and have designed astronomically complex financial instruments that no normal person understands, in order to make sure that doesn't happen. The own it... the whole thing. But there is a process to it all; it isn't as simple as outright stealing. In the past, they were stealing, but there was actually a functioning economy. Now the functioning economy is pretty much down the toilet, and the rich (and all the people that flip money around all day for profit, the myriad of people that pontificate on the 'markets', etc., etc.) are participating in bleeding the last few drops out of the rock.
For sure, things are definitely far more "evolved" in this episode (the final one?).
There's inflation and deflation happening.
I always kind of poke at the notion of "wealth" because it's usually a measure that is prescribed/controlled by TPTB themselves. If there are not enough participants in the "auctions" then what might have been thought "wealth" is really not so much any more. Comes down to the "demand" side of things...
The ONLY reason, IMO, that the "economy" may have appeared to work in the past is because there were sufficient physical resources to maintain it and to "promise" reutrns (interest). The "economy" is about trying to fairly distribute goods and services; when there's no way to distribute the goods and services perceived to be the "normal" then the "economy" faulters. The fact that capital really cannot find a place to find returns says more about the future telling us that we don't have a clue what we'll need then than it does about anything else: and it's not because all the big players aren't straining to find the paths to profits, it's because they themselves are totally uncertain about the available resources (they, like ourselves, have tended to believe so much BS that they cannot separate fact from fiction).
"Wealth" plays chicken with entropy. We know what the eventual winner is...
Maybe we have plenty enough resources, at least for a good while. One resource is people, and we can now do more with less when it comes to that. I think the financial engineering is all about allowing wealth to continue to be accumulated by the wealthy, and some of the lesser wealthy, despite having a weak economy and high percentage of people not actually working/contributing to the pot. They pick up the physical assets at all the right times and thus accumulate 'wealth'. The paper wealth is dubious because of the inflation, so the mega-wealthy have to be skilled at negotiating their way through it all, and wind up being the one holding more of the real assets. They run all the sheep into the financial assets so they can take the physical in exchange. The financial assets then crash down to earth and most people end up with a bag of crap. It's a sleight of hand, writ large. In the real version of economics, he who has wealth, and knows how the game works, can keep and increase his wealth... and that is what happens. Some are able to figure it out or make a few of the right moves, and acquire new wealth, but only a few. The rest are pretty screwed, due to the way the system works. But there probably is a point where it gets harder and harder to squeeze blood from a turnip, and that would be where things start to fall apart.
Also, without the $85 billion to cover the banks, they would have to close their doors. They are belly up without the cash transfers made out of cotton candy. strike that. Cotton candy is made out of sugar and coloring. The FR currency is made out of their imagination.
The jobs are gone and they are not coming back. If you were paying attention you figured this out in the seventies, if you weren't Bruce Springsteen told you in the 80s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPhWR4d3FJQ
Folks in manufacturing KNOW this.
Facts are facts. I've stated is many times in the past and I'll state it once more: there is/will be a campaign to "bring back 'our' jobs," and it'll result in more payouts/bribes to companies operating abroad that will likely start feeling the heat from abroad from trade and currency wars (possible take-over of P&E). EVERY time that there's a major move management takes advantage of it to introduce improved production means, always taking on more automation. I am not saying that there's anythin evil or sinister here (other than the bit "bring back 'our' jobs" BS that'll be waving in our faces, it's just, well... business.
Automation, our time is nowhttp://www.ffjournal.net/item/11406-automation-our-time-is-now.html
[excerpt:]
and this...
Succeeding Through Automation and Production-on-Demand Solutionshttp://www.productionmachining.com/columns/succeeding-through-automation...
[excerpt:]
Someone's got to build AND program the 'Droids -- got mad skillz?
Speaking of programming skillz, these are quite fun and they are free :
On iPad it's called iCanMorph3
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/icanmorph3/id736763181?mt=8&ign-mpt=uo%3...
On iPhone it's called iCanMorph2
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/icanmorph2/id736512904?mt=8&ign-mpt=uo%3D4
Problem is most were listening to a new culture coming out of the closet.
Do You Really Want To Hurt Mehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2nXGPZaTKik
Traditional cultural famine has hit, time to sail away.
You're almost correct.
The jobs are gone, but they didn't go anywhere from which to come back.
The jobs are gone. They didn't go to China. They didn't go to India. They just went.
Automation destroyed them. No more toll collectors. No more switchboard operators. No more all sorts of things. You see the self-serve barcode scanners at Home Depot? Those jobs didn't go to China. They just went. And the people who did those jobs did not, at age 45, go back to university to learn software engineering and then program the automated toll collections and barcode scanners.
They went on benefits. And that's where they are going to stay, with more of their friends every day. Sub 100 IQ job holders will be on benefits. That's 1/2 the population. The above 100 IQ job holders will try to fund their lives and lifestyles PLUS pay those benefits for that permanently non working 1/2 of the population from now on.
Then automation will move up the IQ chain. Do you really think a CPA can't be automated? Family practice physicians already were defeated by a computer in a double blind study on accurate diagnosis and treatment.
This will lower tax revs and increase required spending, and there is nothing that can be done about it.
in the nineties i worked as a student at a car plant in car-land germany.
imagine a welding hall 800 x 800m, inside: only robots and ~30 people on 24/7 shift looking for the machinery.
10-20 years ago it has housed say 1000-2000 welders.
same for painting.
All totally ignored by politics and mainstream media. the jobs are gone but the ideology that one has to work to have a place in society will not be changed.
You could remove all of the other posts and let yours stand as the only one worth reading.
Peter Schiff: With ECB Rate Cut FED Has More Room To Increase QE Now
Peter Schiff warns everybody: do not be fooled by all this Taper talk, the moment FED removes the QE we are going in recession. ECB Rate Cut gives more room for FED to increase QE now. The action in Gold and Gold miners will be the very good indicator of the real state of the financial markets. Any discussions will stay only the words without money flowing into the sector. China is buying record amount of Gold this year and now you can add countries like Thailand and Turkey into the mix as well. Thailand's biggest domestic gold importer expects to more than double purchases this year to 200 t from 92 t last year. Turkey's gold imports have doubled this year and purchases have reached already 251.4 t from January - the biggest tonnage increase since at least 1995, according to ZeroHedge.
What do they know the others don't? The real situation with Gold at the Central Banks being leased out or Record Low COMEX inventories? http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/peter-schiff-with-ecb-rate-cut-fed-has.html#
The logic, and the history, is pretty clear on all of this. Depressions can NOT be allowed, as that destroys wealth (which TPTB control): though there's relativity here, and if all it takes is a scrap of something to stay elevated above the masses then TPTB will gladly take that scrap.
All the CBs out there are under pressure to cheapen their currencies. We're all standing inside the glue factory. If your at the back of the line they you just hold out for as long as you can hoping that those before you jamb up the machinery such that the factory stops and you can gallop away...
This all seems fairly obvious to everyone but the powers that be.
No, it's what THEY want you to think. As long as you believe they are clueless you'll spend energies trying to get them to see, energy that isn't being used for your own advantage.
Darn, Amerikans need more entertainment.
Nothing 50 million poorly edumicated, poorly skilled, socialist at their core and in poor health medicans can't fix.
It means
Your EBT card has been reduced
Unemployment is 7.3%
Your administration is tempted to release new unemployed immigration fucknuts to complete with your job.
While you are unable to work, ACA becomes mandatory for IRS to police.
The comedy ensuses
Lastly, we have built all these carbon emissions cars. No one is buying into my global warming charter.. Fuck democracy, I'll just draft my EO law into place.
"Your administration is tempted to release new unemployed immigration fucknuts to complete with your job."
As my wife has LEGALLY obtained her residence card here in the US (she's earned every fucking thing in her life; gained citizenship in Canada even- most folks here couldn't endure the path that she has) I resent this BS, closeted rascist, shit of tossing in "immigration."
If you're wanting to piss on something then piss on the H1B visa program (which was really a cloak for attacking unions).
This all assumes you're a resident/citizen of the US. If you aren't then you should shut the fuck up.
Wow Seer. Didn't mean to strike a bad cord with your wife. My wife obtain her citizenship without having to screw over US taxpayers on every entitlement available. She has been a citizen for over two decades. Canadian/US laws will absolutely be different until Mexico, Canada, and United States merges into one union. Pucker up and face the defeat in the real world experience..
You were right. Between legal and illegal immigration, the economy has to produce 100,000+ jobs just to stay even with the influx of immigrants. That assumes they all work. But the point is that jobs are relatively scarce, particularly low-skill jobs for Americans. Why do we owe foreigners more than we owe our own population? Indeed, why not have a time out on legal immigration and actually seal the border? Because the American middle and lower middle classes are the punching bags of the new world order. Whatever mix of policies screws them the most will be the law going forward.
Karl Denninger posit's and Bill Still repeats in this short video that QE is added into GDP. So last Qs just reported increase of $196 billion was a result of $255 billion in QE in 3rd Q. A real net decline of $59 billion before inflation of course:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=225845
And don't forget all the R&D and IP stuff too.
Green shoots everywhere!
work makes my brain hurt
I find it easier to just smash my head against the wall. That way I end up spending less time getting the same result (don't have to do a bunch of reading)!
Instead of looking at total jobs, look at full time employment. There has never been an instance where growth in full time jobs falls below the rate of population growth that didn't signal the start of a recession. The recession starred this week.
It's been down-hill since 1971. We've only managed to create an illusion suggesting otherwise. And when the illusion no longer works? Wile E Coyote time...
There you go. Once you stop following the illusion, you'll have time to see what the future brings.
(pssst, that's almost to the year the point on the chart of peak US oil output. What a coincidence!)
The American dream is being inspired by the early writings of
Jean-Jacques RousseauNot Bernanke
If you don't like the Job they'd like to give you, go out an invent one of your own.
That's what survivors do.
"It's not When you work; it's How you work."
Yes, we should stop doing "jobs" and start doing "work!"
WTF
NY FED PRESIDENT: Some Wall Street Banks Are Just Morally Bankrupt
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/dudley-too-big-to-fail-speech-2013-11#ixzz2kHcw3ks0
I wonder whether this isn't a "get out of jail free card" tactic, that they won't market all of this as a friendly "new face of finance" and they just all go about doing the same fucking things all over again? We all stand up, cheer, and think they've finally gotten "our message." Before we could hope about such things I'd suggest reading the fable The Scorpion and the Frog (http://www.aesopfables.com/cgi/aesop1.cgi?4&TheScorpionandtheFrog)
.... I'd suggest reading the fable The Scorpion and the Frog (http://www.aesopfables.com/cgi/aesop1.cgi?4&TheScorpionandtheFrog)
... and then go download The Crying Game where that fable played a recurring role in the story line.
I saw the exact same fable quoted last night in a story about a Colorado nurse who had believed in Obamacare until it happened to her and she lost her insurance coverage.
It's a meme whose time has come - it's popping up all over.
The Vapors - Turning Japanese
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4 (3:47)
i think im turning japanese
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KaYHLE4bDSg (4:09)
I own a small trash hauling business. We have four full-time drivers and a maintenance/yard boss/backup driver. The guys make $20 per hour and work straight 40-hour weeks (that's what the timesheets say, anyway). They get health insurance, kinda - there's a $4,000 deductible. Mrs. Tippy and my niece do the books. I do all the sales, plus the usual stuff involved in running a small business. It's hard work for everyone involved, but we're stable and profitable. Trash hauling is not a very "sexy" way to make a living, and you don't get rich at it.
Things changed dramatically in 2009. Rock-solid hard working guys suddenly want to come work for Tippy The Trashman. They're from the building trades, and I know them and/or their former crew bosses (renting dumpsters to construction sites was a big part of my business a few years ago). These guys would make excellent drivers - they could back up a trash truck blindfolded, already have a CDL, super work references, strong as bulls, etc. They have families to support and mortgage/truck payments to make. Their swagger is gone and they look bewildered and desperate behind a wall of determination.
I can't hire any of them. The revenue just isn't there to support another full-time decent-paying job. I'd have to borrow money and buy another truck and try to underbid MegaWasteManagement to get more accounts. I've thought about it but I just can't go that route. Fuck "grow or die" - I'm staying with what I've got.
This economy sucks. Top-shelf workers in the prime of their careers are reduced to dreaming of how great it would be to land a $20-an-hour job hauling trash for a dinky company like mine.
+ 1
Thank you for sharing your story.
Your story sums up the situation quite well, doesn't it. You did it well, too.
My solution - Just throw those fuckers Bernanke and Greenspan off a cliff and get Jim Rogers and Peter Schiff run the Central Bank.
Hahahahaha..[To run the Central Bank.] This is the epidomony of misunderstanding of how they continue to protect this shitbag economic system under the bearing of MMT.
Cantonese vs Mandarin | Can you tell which is which?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OJoU3ZxPrs (4:09)
What does a sane person do if they have the misfortune to be locked up together with mostly sleep-walking zombies all held together in an asylum run by lunatics?
Don't get me wrong - I think Bernanke is a CUNT - because he is the front man for the bankers.
However I am sure he would tell you that if he did not print these trillions the stock market would collapse - and every pension fund in American would be wiped out.
The Fed is printing because there are no other choices - stop printing - collapse IMMEDIATELY.
Keep printing - collapse later - but in the meantime hope for a miracle (or allow time to purchase 1.6 billion rounds of ammo to quell the riots when the collapse does come)
"But it will never get there because the jobs market and Main Street economy are structurally broken. Indeed, measured on a consistent basis, the unemployment rate is still over 11 percent based in the labor force participation rate of late 2008 and is over 13 percent based on the labor force participation rate at the turn of the century."
What mean "Dummies Guide"? For Dummies or by Dummies? Forgot the parallel economy. What's that? 20% of the economy keeping funny books? Italy pitched the EU for 40% off-the-books.
One small city's unfilled trucking jobs drasticallly dropped from 20,000 two years ago to 5,000 jobs today. Too bad unemployed seeking jobs won't or can't follow the jobs by moving.
i call total bullshit. what fucking small city has 20,000 unfilled trucking jobs?
I'm not able to formulate such beautiful (complicated ?) sentences and see things very simple.
If you look at a country as a system (you may even say 'black box'), with output 'products' and input 'money used to buy products' then how can such a system gain wealth (money) ?
It must produce products that can be bought externally (by people outside the country). Pumping money around internally can never create wealth. Health care ? Not a product bought by a foreigner. 'Services' ? Education ? All those jobs can never create 'wealth'. Stronger, they will hurt creation of wealth because the money cannot be spend on innovation/production.
So this system should ask itself : which products that we produce are worth buying by foreigners.
As to automation, if that is the way to stay competitive, don't fight it ! It will simply happen. It is better to fight too powerful unions and INNOVATE (and I don't mean yet a better drone ;-)).