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Complacent? Here's What The "Hint" Of A Fed Taper Did To Global Growth Hope
Whether or not one believes the Fed will taper (then almost instantly un-taper based on the market's reaction) or not in the coming months, Bernanke's "tease" in the early summer this year should give most pause for thought as to just how dependent 'everything' is on the Fed's money printing. As the following chart from Bloomberg's Michael McDonough shows, things changed when big Ben dropped the hint that the punchbowl will not be here forever. There is one region, however, that for now has improved its outlook for 2014 GDP growth since the taper-tease...
The largest decline occurred in Latin America, where the 2014 GDP growth consensus diminished to 3.21 percent from 3.99 percent on Jan. 1. and EMEA (the most dependent on abundant, cheap foreign capital to fuel their economic growth). Western Europe, which experienced the largest improvement, is forecasted to grow 1.39 percent in 2014, compared to 1.33 percent at the start of the year. Global growth is anticipated to total 2.85 percent in 2014.
The U.S. 2014 growth forecast has fallen modestly to 2.6 percent from 2.8 percent at the start of the year.
Though U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to accelerate to 3.0 percent quarter-on-quarter SAAR by the fourth quarter of next year.
Hope - it's always just around the corner...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Define "growth". Growth of what exactly? Growth of financial "products" of mass destruction? Sure, no actual calories (energy) are required to create such "products".
Roll the motherfucking guillotines...
nothing changes otherwise...
I see it as a cancerous growth. Time to operate.
Chemotherapy!
Oh....well then better load up another big bowl of Hopium in the global hooka and keep it packed!
That will be later this evening after kids are bedded down...
On another note, can everyone feel the weirdness speeding up? distractions and stupidity at all time highs
All these admissions, scandles, and leaks point to control has been lost. something is going to give.
well worth the 2 mins to watch nancy pelosi explaining the great success ACA has been to date.. unbelievable
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAbbGyX_bGI
Oh it is believable (alas) coming from Miss Botox - you got it right with weirdness though ...
I prognosticate that the day the (already massaged - if it is in your basket you are in) Obomacare numbers are finally released, another couple of generals or flag officers will be fired for some great scandal to grab the headlines.
Funny, not tapering or printing to infinity has done fuck all for global growth either.
Just establish "mark to market" again, and all this nonsense will have an end.
Just printing paper that at some point will catch up or is that catch down to its real worth...its holding up so far...but someday it will drop..crash more likely...when it gets dumped as the reserve currency....then all those trillions of fiat will become paper...with no full faith behind them....but I have to applaud them now...they are keeping the can kicking down the road....
Pomo
Flounder, you can't spend your whole life worrying about your mistakes! You fucked up... you trusted us! [Otter]
No matter what, stocks are rising. I sense we have a choice of two situations; A raging good economy to come, or hyperinflation. You really have to take your pick here on what stocks are saying. I don't think it is the good economy thing. We tried this money printing under Ronald Reagan and the real economy went into decay for 20 years despite higher stock prices. We increased the money supply by several multiples to no good economic effect (tech bubble was fun but a coincidental occurance). We shall see if it takes twice as much money to get half as much rally under this hyperinflation.
I pick share buybacks that decrease the denominator in earnings/share. Those buybacks are funded by borrowing at 0% and rolling over every 3 months.
That's how CEOs can report "earnings growth" when the top line isn't growing and there's no one left to fire.
The cost of living says that inflation is already here. You cannot expand balance sheets to the extent that the central bankers of earth have and expect people with access to those balance sheets not to try and cash in on that percieved "wealth" at some point.
This applies to everything, including the fringe shit like bitcoin. The bottom line is this, if you are looking a balance sheet that has increased several hundred percent in it's valuation and the prices of real assets (like real estate, PM's, commodities, etc.) have remained tame, why in the fuck wouldn't you start selling? This goes double for those who also have a real business that has real inputs (like commodities etc.).
hedge accordingly.
The beauty is that Bernanke and then Yellin will be able to control the bubbles for a few more years. Keep printing 85 and maybe 150 billion per month, but every few months drop some hints about "pulling back". The robots that run the markets will eat that shit up every time and throttle back the market prices.
I disagree.
The world (those not tied to the fed hip) have had enough of our shit.
Increase to 150b a mth means destruction completed
The money changers fucked up bad this time, and even worse got caught at it. things will pop sooner than you think
Glorious BB shit his pants after he hinted of tapering - he still stinks