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Homebuilders' Cancellation Rate Surges To Highest Since December 2008
Despite ongoing optimism that the housing recovery can withstand fire, brimstone, rising rates, and collapsing confidence (in spite of the fact that indications from most top-down data are to the contrary), investors in US homebuilders may need to adjust this morning. If DR Horton is any indication of a broad trend (and empirical comparisons with its peers show that it is) then the firm's huge miss in its cancellation rate (31.0% vs an expectation of 25.5%) in Q3 should be food for thought. The surge in cancellation was the largest MoM since mid-2008 and jumped to its highest since December 2008.
Does make one wonder if the lagged response to the surge in rates and collapse in applications is now catching up...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Does it matter ? There is so much liquidity around that it is only a matter of time the bubbles rotate into a different asset class.
2008?
I thought we fixed all that crap.
It's like a meritocracy based on corruption. Only the most corrupt rise to the top.
They can only pass off so much of the bag holding to the unwashed masses. What are they going to do when the muppets are priced out of the market?
2008, right
It's all Bush's fault.
Yes. It's called cash. And ammo.
..and mini pizzas.
Dennis Gartman says this article is BS.
“Friday’s employment number was indicative of what’s going on in the economy. Outside of New York, things are doing quite well, thank you very much,” he said."
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/11/12/dennis-gartman-if-its-yellen-you-should-be-sellin-bonds/
Right, because all those paper-pushers on wall street and in the banking sector are "suffering".
/s
I call bullshit, roll the motherfucking guillotines already.
Gartman "sees interest rates rising to 4 or 6%?" How are the kleptocrats in D.C./Wall Street going to fund the budget at those rates?
ain't gonna happen
You were right again Fonz on two points. One: The Fed is going to keep as tight a grip as possible on bond yields and allow them to fluctuate within an acceptable parameter to give them the appearance of responding to phantom market forces. And two: Gartman is an idiot.
I don't even think Gartman is a human being. He is some cyborg shitpile.
I have actually heard a rumor he is related to this guy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33n-IS8a1S4
"Gartman, I am your father."
I'm listening to another zh favorite Dan Loeb right now explain why the "doom and gloomers" were wrong. I won't even reiterate his premise. Just someone on here please promise me he does not escape the guillotine.
Be productive and add to the GDP, push more paper!
The Housing Bubble Scam of overpriced houses is beig recognized by more Americans. Why do you think they are flying in foreigners (esp Chinese) to buy these boxes? Fewer here want to buy into Debt Serfdom.
Ben probably ordered them all just before the housing survey, and then cancelled them just after it......
Fiat cash looking for real assets...
Another "suckers market" where it's always "a great time to buy".
location, location, location...
choose wisely, because many municipalities need to be funded...
Ten year on its way back up to 3%.
Between a rock , and an iceberg now.
Release the QE Kraken.
Let the anti-taper begin!
Release the Kraken!
Feed the Kraken. Feed him, make him bigger. Then, then release the Kraken!
Over.
Yup, this is exactly the kind of news that will send the market ripping to a new all time high. What a clusterfuck.
The obvious next step is to scrub clean any statements that state traditionally recessions end on the back of a strengthening housing market. Next up: cancellations are green shoots.
That's the great thing about mark to fantasy accounting...
I'm holding out until the petrodollar is replaced by Unicorns and Skittles.
"Unicorns and Skittles."
A little late. Already happening.
Dr. Kudlow I presume
Hmmm looks like they're gonna have to double down on the free money printing to get out of this!
Target is $1 trillion/month. Zimbabwe is were it's at.
Here we go again!!
Check out "WORLD OF DEBT" BELOW (funny music video):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=99xsqxzJnXs
Also, "JIM CRAMER'S TERRIBLE STOCK PICKS--MUST SEE!":
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhwplunz7-I
Reason 462,000 there will be no taper
Its pay for Obamacare..or buy a new house...
/thread. This applies to just about anything else as well. Somehow someway the tea party will end up with the blame before it's all over though. You can be sure of that.
awwww.........
Flip that folio.
Who cares about the collateral, just get me some shit at about $$$$.
BULLISH !!!!!!
Bob Toll says there is pent up demand. Bob Toll always says there is pent up demand. He also says that there is no reason why people are not spending 50% of their income on their mortgage payment. Bob Toll is an asshole.
Philly housing index saw a spike and has since tanked
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/philly-housing-index-daily-moves-channe...
There never was a housing recovery. Would be interesting to see how many foreclosed homes are sitting on banks books, but unable to be resold because banks know it would saturate an already stagnant market.
Maybe some cancelled their 5-6 zero down houses when they realized the stock market is an easier Ponzi scheme...just tap a few buttons to buy and sell.
I read ZH because it gives me hope and reminds me of the oneness of humankind ... even though it seems as if the articles themselves are not, themselves, full of hope and are sometimes devicive.
LOL, I wouldn't use Horton as an example, their home building reputation blows.
Really, who is feeling confident about any debt heading into a QE tapering given what happened the last 2 times...banks have basically refused to offer mortgages unless you have a 800+ credit score and then they still want to pawn it off on Fannie/Freddie. Half of all housing (and farmland) is being purchased by investors realizing the boomers will have to rent til death. Watched Detropia last night...Detroit is a blueprint for what will hit hundreds of cities in the coming decade...Whitney was right but early...
Yes, renting is the game. I wanted to buy at 23 or 24 with my savings, but could never get a mortgage even if I was offering 20, 30, 40 or even 50% down. I never wanted to rent because I saw prices going up and the fact that after a lease ends the price can change (basically, only up).
But I only ever had a 700 credit score (never took on ENOUGH debt) and a part-time job at that point while going to school. My savings was something else though, and I was being paid to go to school. So instead of throwing that money into equity (even if the property "lost value") I was forced to piss away on rent.
But this essentially woke me up to economics and the debt game in general, the NWO, government, banks, etc. One thing I can assure you of is that we are all being turned into rent serfs, one by one, family by family.