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Small Business Optimism Plunges Most Since Superstorm Sandy

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In yet another miracle of modern-day macroeconomics, despite the soaring stock market and better-than-expected government-provided data (soft surveys mostly), the small-business (supposedly the core driver of jobs and growth in the US economy) saw optimism collapse at the fastest rate since Sandy (supposedly due to the government shutdown). This is the fifth month in a row that NFIB optimism has missed expectations (the worst - absent Sandy - since March 2012). 7 of the 10 sub-components were negative with the biggest plunge coming from those who expect the economy to improve. Seems like another good reason to BTFATH...

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:31 | 4145721 LawsofPhysics
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Hey look, the Winklevosses say bitcoins are "worth 100 times more, they are good as gold".

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101190181

Well, that says it all right there...

Someone might want to tell these future "innovators" that CNBC does not help your credibility (unless you intend to become a snake oil salesman).

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:54 | 4145817 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Give Zuckerberg a call.. I am sure he will be able to help you guys get what you need. 

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 12:13 | 4146125 Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Give small Business owners the same Obamacare waivers like the Big Biz club members and Congress critters get.  That would surely improve optimism.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 15:48 | 4147076 akak
akak's picture

 

Hey look, the Winklevosses say bitcoins are "worth 100 times more, they are good as gold".

Uh oh, you said the magic word!

There goes this thread!

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:32 | 4145725 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

BTFD. Only 15 points dip but buy the fucker anyway. Soon there will be no dips!!!! Unless it's gold, then sell the bounce...

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:39 | 4145734 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Indeed.  The deficit shrunk so, combined with the lessening supply of bonds available for purchase, unless the Fed's purchasing is decreasing, I see an additional 300 billion with nowhere else to go but equities...

time to raise my soybean, sorghum, and pecan prices...

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:40 | 4145757 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

It could go to main street, but not a chance, keep the money inhouse, don't let the scum have a sniff of it, ie the 99% of the population

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:42 | 4145761 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Well, the unwashed masses in asia must be getting some of it, based on what they have been willing to pay for pecans and walnuts anyway.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:42 | 4145762 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's hysterical that these winklevoss twins were on there touting all these great aspects of bitcoin. But in reality they were on there to pimp the etf they are filing for that is tied to bitcoin.

I'm not trying to bash bitcoin, but an etf backed by nothing tied to a crypto currency backed by nothing is something that could only be touted on CNBC.

 

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:49 | 4145790 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

A sign of being close to the top?

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:31 | 4145959 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Can't even see the top from up here.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:39 | 4145985 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Fonz- Look me straight in the eye and tell me that BitCoin ETF looks any more or less "real" than the other bullshit going on out there.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:44 | 4146009 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Can't be any worse than all of those derivatives out there.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:33 | 4145732 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Collapse is good..........right? <so confused>

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:35 | 4145739 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Definitely it's all better than expected, right into the ground.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:37 | 4145751 Cdad
Cdad's picture

So....like....tumbling further down the deeper than expected cosmic bunny hole....is fantastic...right?

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:34 | 4145736 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Small business' is basically impossible today, no way to get thru all the red tape and even if you did make a profit, it all goes to govt taxes and fees.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:40 | 4145758 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

central planning (kleptocracy/fascism) has never favored local economies.

I remain long black markets and sharecropping.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:25 | 4145942 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

Speaking of black markets, it seems obvious to me that the ACA will create a medical black market beyond comprehension.  The ACA is going to force people to avoid seeing doctors and being treated early for most types of things.  The results in the long term will be catastrophic as those small things will turn into major things so that by the time they enroll in the "plan" they will be net takers.  But to avoid long term quality of life decline, many will begin to seek medical attention/RX etc outside of the "system". Medical practices will go to cash based systems that don't deal at all with insurance.

Think about it: how many times are you going to be willing or able to afford to pay a $12k-15k deductible before even being able to apply one cent of insurance?  And even if you do, you'll have the copay to deal with. Let's see, pay 15-25% of income or pay a 1-2% penalty and only go on the "plan" once you are diagnosed with something you can't pay for.  The most times you are ever going to do option 1 is once.  The only people who will have better care are those who will be fully subsidized by the taxpayers....and they will likely abuse it because the incentive is there to do so. Most everyone else will choose option 2 and that will overwhelm doctor ability to perform care and give way for others who can provide basic treatment, have testing done, and issue RX.....some will be off market and others will be in the shadow market.

The lack of common sense is almost gravity defying but the consequences will be very real.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 12:22 | 4146136 akarc
akarc's picture

People avoid seeking medical care for a wide variety of reasons. A large percentage of  people in this country have historically had little to no access to health insurance such as construction workers, etc. Many workers in this country do not receive  "sick days" and if they do and actually take them they fear for their jobs. In some occupations you take time off due to illness you are not paid. Most of these individuals can not afford insurance and if they can the deductible is often beyond their reach.

Add to that the historical pyschology of not seeking treatment in time such as in the case of heart attacks and strokes due to denial.

Add to that a population that eats terribly, smokes and drinks. There are those who will blame those who suffer from corporate sponsored addiction and exhort them to use will power. To them I would suggest trying will power the next time diarrhea comes a knockin.

And let us not disount the numerous illnesses that are genetically aquired by individuals suffered through no fault of there own. Or are injured and rendered unable to work by some cell phone distracted selfish dipshit in a pick em up or some  other act of stupidity.

"The lack of common sense is almost gravity defying but the consequences will be very real."

That situation has existed for years. Remember insurance from it's inception is designed to profit from the expectation of disaters and death and the coat hanger black markets have existed for years.

The answer is, to ignore those who may fall over sick or suffer from an act of violence in the streets. Oh shit, we already do that to.

Well at least we could cut any funding for monitoring pandemics from which no one  is immune. One good pandeminc. Thats all we need. Will cut the cost of health care dramatically.

 

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:36 | 4145744 lewy612
lewy612's picture

Small business owners are hardest hit by ACA. Big surprise they are a little down-in-the-dumps.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 13:10 | 4146362 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

AS a small business owner I have some of my own theories. It would seem to me that those businesses that sell products or services that can be paid for with credit easily are the winners. I think this mostly favors the big boys more so than small business. Places selling furniture on four year interest free notes. I-Crap mobile devices, electronics and mostly disposable crap are the easy sellers. Small business that may not accept credit cards or sells to larger businesses are at a disadvantage. AS a company that most of my work is for larger businesses, I see them mostly buying the things that will most directly make them money and even then shopping for the best price (a place that imports reside). Yes ALL of the gov crap coming at us is adding insult to injury but mostly its a lack of profit and sales that depresses me. The market is broken. We who believe in some moral ethic are at a substantial disadvantage if we do not lie cheat and steal to get ahead. It seems that it is mostly the liars and cheaters who are telling us how we should obey the rules and "do the right thing" while they are fucking us in every way.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 13:32 | 4146435 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

The comsumer is collapsing, discretionary income is vanishing....

Small business on the non-discretionary side will continue to do ok, a least for a little while...

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:39 | 4145756 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And look....we were SO 'optimistic' just a couple months ago!

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:43 | 4145769 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

BTFPlungeInConfidence.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:43 | 4145771 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Did everyone get their twtr buy orders in? Me and Doc have a sandwich on this. I need all the help I can get.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 10:56 | 4145826 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

SANDY ????? YOU SURE THEY DIDN'T MEAN KATRINA. 

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:02 | 4145848 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Noticing that a fraction of Congress are simply petulant nihlists might have something to do with it...

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:04 | 4145858 MyBrothersKeeper
MyBrothersKeeper's picture

As stated here and elsewhere, govt functions best.....meaning best for them....when monopolies are created.  Small business is getting the shaft just like the middle class. In fact, according to Wayne Allen Root, it's all part of the plan to dry up contributions to GOP and other conservative groups.  Blame banks, blame insurance companies, blame the rich for all society evils even while deeply in bed with all 3 groups to, of course, make themselves more rich and powerful.  And when all else fails blame the Tea Party and George Bush.

This is one reason why Christie will never win the WH.  The free stuff army and liberal vote are all on Democrat side.  His only chance is to unite the conservatives, libertarians etc, but all he has done is alienate everyone but establishment Republicans.  He can call himself a moderate but he will lose huge unless he bamboozles someone like Rubio to run with him.  He'd still lose, but it would not be as embarrasing.  The next chance for any real candiadte will come in 2020 once things are so screwed up that nearly everyone will be feeling the pain. My opinion.

The grand mistake of creating monopolies is small business generates about 2/3 of new jobs in US. The economy is not braod enough for big businesses to take up the slack in employment generation and real unemployment will only go higher and higher.  They may want this as it may create an opportunity to create more govt employment....but we are so far in debt already that I don't think that will be possible.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:37 | 4145976 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Why would you want John McCain, err Christie as president.

Take another red pill , you are still in the owners matrix.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:42 | 4145995 akarc
akarc's picture

"On August 6, 2012, Root speculated that Barack Obama attended Columbia University as a foreign exchange student, citing his "gut instinct" as evidence. Root was specifically referring to the fact that Obama's childhood years spent with his mother in Indonesia. In response to Senator Harry Reid's speculation about Mitt Romney's tax returns, Root offered speculation on Obama's college records.[24]"

From sports handicapper to CNBC talking head to self promoter who relies on "gut insinct" as evidence. So qualfied. I must quote him more often.  

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:51 | 4146046 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hell, go all the way out on the limb and quote Pam Geller who claims Malcolm X was BHO's daddy...

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 11:49 | 4146038 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Most small businesses in this country are based on discretionary consumer items... 

Think about that real carefully....

 

Christie would have had a very good chance to beat O in 2012, but he would not have had a chance in the primaries... Romney was doomed because the primaries exposed his bald faced flip-floppery necessary to pander to the base...

Christie is unlikely to get the nomination in 2016 unless the GOP is bitchslapped in the 2014 midterms... 

The GOP has to drop the social conservative nonsense if they want to remain a player in presidential politics.... It is very simple.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 12:55 | 4146266 RKDS
RKDS's picture

Christie is a joke.  He's another awful candidate where conservatives only see what they want to see.  They'll fall all over themselves to praise or ridicule him based on what Fox tells them to think.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 13:00 | 4146320 Flakmeister
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No real argument from me, but he is a very skilled politcian, cut of the same cloth as Bubba...

Any GOP'er who can win the Black, Hispanic and Single woman demographics is a rarity, whatever you may think of him...

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 15:16 | 4146895 RKDS
RKDS's picture

I don't get why people aren't seeing that he can turn on them in a second.  I've seen him scream at teachers and veterans alike.  That's how he operates; he screams and threatens until he gets what he wants.  All that has to happen is for you to get on the other side of an issue (like, say, banking fraud, which he lobbied for) and he changes from this everyman persona and into a deranged thug.  If I were living in NJ, I'd be very worried about who's next after he's done stomping on the unions to enrich his plutocrat pals.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 15:39 | 4147036 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Like I said, no argument from me...

People in Joisey lap up that bully shit...

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 12:42 | 4146237 RKDS
RKDS's picture

You're on drugs.  Rich people bankroll the GOP.  How would the Democrats hypothetically stacking the deck against small business affect the rich's ability to control the GOP?

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 12:58 | 4146312 The Axe
The Axe's picture

The two biggest contributors to both Obama and Romey were Goldman Sucks and JP MoreShit    so banks control the process....not the GOP or Democrats

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 17:16 | 4146328 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

THere is a little bit more to it than that, what fraction of all monies came from the banks?

The Banks support who they think will win more and as you note they support both candidates. It is referred to as "hedging your bets"....

Also the Super PACS make any analysis of contributions completely moot.... The money is untraceable thanks to Citizens United....

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 13:18 | 4146384 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

All of those rich people like Sorros, Gates, Buffett supported Romney? Is that why the democrats out spent republicans in almost every race, becasue of all those damn rich folks?

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 15:01 | 4146781 RKDS
RKDS's picture

There's a difference between "all rich people bankroll the GOP" and "rich people bankroll only the GOP" and what I actually said ("rich people bankroll the GOP").  This idea that the GOP is driven by poor small business people is as ridiculous a fantasy as the idea that the Democrats are controlled by poor blacks and single mothers.  The reality is that the rich control both parties and the government is just another of their tools.  All of this constant wailing about being oppressed by it is nothing but a show to distract the fools among us.

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 15:38 | 4147027 InflammatoryResponse
InflammatoryResponse's picture

OK RKDS,

 

" Rich people bankroll the GOP. "   this is singularly funny beyond the scope of the ENTIRE INTERNET.

 

'cause we all know that the poor asses like zuckerberg, (insert random hollywood nitwit here)  soros,  etc.   are all just scraping by right?

 

Damn that was funny...  thanks for the laugh :)

 

Tue, 11/12/2013 - 15:49 | 4147068 RKDS
RKDS's picture

ZeroHedge really needs to put the math questions back in to keep the illiterati from pumping this kind of vomit onto our screens.

You really can't think of any rich people that support the GOP?  Are you too busy thumping your Constitution like a coked up gorilla?

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