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The QEeen Sends Stocks Soaring To Moar New Highs; Bonds & Bullion Bid
Despite a 10% collapse in CSCO (which apparently is not a bellwhether anymore at all) - notching a mere 18 points off the Dow, Yellen's confirmation of everything we thought we knew (and bad macro data) was enough to send the S&P and Dow to new all-time highs. Treasuries rallied 2bps (5-8bps on the week) and gold lifted back to unchanged on the week. VIX limped lower. On the day, the USD closed higher (thanks to JPY weakness supporting stocks) but was lower from early highs. Credit markets rallied very modestly but remain hugely divergent in this supposed QEeen-fueled surge. And on it goes...
Quite a week so far...
Stocks are unstoppable... credit not so much...
The Dow, Nasdaq totally ignored CSCO - so old school - and roared again...
Some context off the debt-ceiling lows...
and across the sectors...
Gold lurched begrudgingly today - back to unchanged on the week...
as Treasuries rallied (10Y back to 2.69%)
Before everyone gets too excited - we have seen this rampacious levitation 4 times this year now and each time it reached this pace - we turned lower...
You think this is funny... does it amuse you?
Charts: Bloomberg
Bonus Chart: It all makes sense somewhere...
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Let them eat QEek.
QE: making rich people richer since '08
Selling tomorrow:
mutual fund UMLG X
ETF VO
ETF VB
***
AMFs!
What to buy? Hmm..., something heavy?
If market goes sell, it likely will not stop.As such, no reason they will bother rocking the boat, on buyside at the meta-fund level (Do you really think Fink or Fidelity are going to position reset after a 40%+ ROA year ? not likely).
If anything this market will likely drift & stall until Feb.when the market will reset, taper or not after US holiday sales & capital outlays will be massively below the 5-y trend smoothed sell side models.
Yellen pretty much said until Obama is either 1. Kicked out 2. Get's his shit together, pulling out the only thing half-working is a really stupid thing to do. If the QE is pulled away, then it will only give Obama more fodder to try out ever more stupid socialist cocktails of taxation & crony-industry cherrypicking.
On an unrelated note: fan of your work in bearings. Small world.
VileRat - QE and Obama's stupid socialist cock... I mean cocktail... of taxaton , outright stealing thru Chicago cronies, .... are all part of the same plan. Get with the new age socio-economics dude.... It's Fabian or bust. Make a choice.
Eat, Pray, Queef
http://www.southparkstudios.se/full-episodes/s13e04-eat-pray-queef
Have you guys seen this woman?? This may be one of the Tylers...this woman is very smart. Enjoy.
http://youtu.be/4hgA9j-4dB0
Gimmedats using their EBT cards to buy stocks before the SNAP benefit cut?
The QEeen has spoken!
Buddy Rich - The Beat Goes On
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nQmn876Vygs (5:00)
The Kings - This Beat Goes On/Switchin' to Glide
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sxkjvKBPQjo (5:47)
BONUS CHART!!! Everybody LOVES the BONUS CHART!!
I look forward to reading your comment everyday, though I dont know why you do it
The boyz figured out the new Fed sheriff is in the game. Only potential threat is that infamous female fickelness . But it's all up for now.
the only way this shit ends is by a big bank going under or something crazy.
this fucking cunt clearly said today she will not taper, i fucking wanted to kill her on the spot.
to make things worse, douchebag dennis gartman and this other douchebag whose name i do not recall were just on cnbc saying how earnings and world growth is what has been driving this market up, and not qe.
i just want to see what would happen if the fed withdrew qe just for 1 fucking week, so all these fuckers who say that qe has no correlation to this market can fucking eat there own words.
its like we all know that without qe the indexs are at record lows, but will we ever be able to be proven right in our lifetimes?
They would give a TBTF bank $100 trillion before they would let it go under.
Thismktrigged - Gartman, to be fair, didn't take the bear bait from Maria "the human sausage" Barituomo. Gartman did say that he didn't think the market was in a bubble, but he did say that QE was responsible for approx 30% of the Indices rise.
Which of course begs the question - "Ok Gartman ... so QE is responsible for what...200 S&P points" ? Of course Maria was too busy looking down to ensure that her sagging tits were still bulging upright in her steel body girdle the likes of which, minus the leg irons, were last seen on prisoners during the Spanish Inqusition, to ask that question.
I wonder if I can sell my stocks directly to the Fed, save some vig?
No!
Next question! [/soup nazi]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phkre1QDPuk
Glass - you don't sell to them... they buy from you.
Yeah, it makes sense. http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d-sV-O2-jCY
It does amuse me. Keep it rocketing higher, boys! To the moon.
I have a great courtside seat and my nacho-hat firmly atop my cranium- so sub Yellen in at center and let's get into overtime!
Up and up it goes...when and what will stop it, nobody knows...
I concur, I sold out some longs just to play it a bit safe; not going short, hell that would be crazy. even yellen confirmed today that this is not a bubble and we are going to go sharply higher from here.
I am just going to wait for the next dip to buy more, I am thinking small 1-2% down then close out the year above 1850.
BTA(buy the ask) there wont be anymore dips.
Last year at this time, before the idiocy of the full retard hopium rally, I didn't have any feeling for business conditions in 2013. My mind was blank, and I couldn't feel anything about the future. Since part of my job is to forecast the consumer market, intuition is all you have. My intuition peered into a black hole. It was the strangest felling I've had in 16 years of business experience.
I know now that the feeling was caused by business that didn't go anywhere in 2013. Almost nothing was bought and very little was sold. This year has seen very few new products, what is supposed to be new was really just rehashed product or things that didn't sell in 2012.
I guess this gave a green light for the pumpers to shoot stocks to the moon because there would be very little real data to base the market on. Without data the market relied on hope and Benny Bux. Since Benny Bux were flowing at a constant rate the market skyrocketed. All year the underlying real data was horrible, but it was ignored, sucked into a black hole.
Starting last year in November all of my buyers were put on lockdown. 2013 pretty much existed to sell down inventory that had accumulated since the start of the supposed recovery. All year buyer meetings were pushed back, open to buy dollars were cut, and inventory continued to stagnate. Walmart looks half empty, pegs at Target hold half the units they did before. Nordstrom is hysterical to walk through. I guess luxury retail means racks that are ten feet apart.
Best Buy has 1/3rd the inventory they carried in 2012. The store features replicated kiosks all over the store to make it look like they have product. Go in one some time and see how many times the same TV and same computer are placed in the store. I saw the same HP convertible PC in five different locations. Best Buy grew bottom end profit by cutting costs and not spending money on purchasing new inventory. Worked wonders for the stock, but how does the company stay in business if it doesn't have product to sell? You can't grow the top end if the total value of product purchased doesn't equal previous values.
2014 doesn't feel like 2013 to me. It feels like what was coming in 2000 and 2008 only a lot worse. Normally buys for summer of next year would be set by now. Spring buying isn't even set. I know this is because all the claims of record corporate cash are bullshit. If there was record corporate cash, retailers would be buying product.
Remember the calls in Q4 2012 that Q2 2013 would see an explosion in business activity? Didn't happen, but Q3 and Q4 would be epic. Doesn't seem that way either. Because business conditions didn't improve in 2013 there is no foundation to support an explosion of business in 2014. You can't have growth without capex. All expenditures have been to support corporate shares. Virtually nothing has been spent on supporting business.
2014 doesn't look very bright. I'm not getting good vibes. The black hole has sucked up all the bullshit it can, and is ready to send out a massive burst that will decimate everything in its path.
I concur. This is not a 2 track economy. It is completely disjointed, not bifrucated.
On the promenade deck it's the fin-de-siecles cocktail party for for the top .05% and their economic pilot fish comprizing the additional 15% of the population that still has some purchasing power and a decent job.
This feels exactly like Sept 2007 when I read about 2 small HSBC sub prime funds that went tits up in the back pages of the WSJ. I remember telling the wife 'see, I told you this housing bullshit couldn't last forever'.
It has that same feel of unreality in the air.
VOMIT!
Of course it continues to rise!
(a) Most trading is done by computers at the large brokerages and banks, feeding off managed headlines and trading with each other.
(b) QE simply means that the Wealth-Transfer Mechanism (Fed fiat+FRB) is rocket-fuel to the Prime Dealers. They benefit, we don't.
(c) They're high-5ing and celebrating that... "They'll be sellin', after Yellen was jellin'." She passed the "Can speak in public?" test, relying on large part on the Jean-Claude Juncker view of "When things get serious, you have to lie". Which isn't an original thought from him either, but goes waaaaay back to the Babylonian days, as a documented set of acceptable lies and deceptions (select parts of the Babylonian Talmud). Clearly Juncker was speaking "code" to his CB bosses and shareholders, who understood his message in a different text than the audience: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=vi9qG3YbiWg
/ But not to worry, Janet, you've already been forgiven at last month's Yom Kippur, during the mass-forgiveness of sins (geneivat da’at, per the Babylonian Talmud, Chullin 94a-b and Baba Kama 113b), while reciting the Kol Nidre prayer of the 8th century. If you recited the 12th century version, your current and future sins and lies are pre-forgiven. Pre-approved, pre-forgiven. Wow, that's like "The QE of sin forgiveness"! Forget this "going to Confession" stuff... where do we sign up? /s
http://flic.kr/p/enJ7Cs
just as I predicted, right on time. I good dip to 1650 and return to this height in a 3 month window perhaps... then SLAM she goes. down, down, down.
Time to get ready for the short side.
Got my eyes on spyxu, vxx, hvu(tsx) & spy puts. May be too early to jump in yet (in a big way) but easing in soon will probably pay off.
The Queen and the poison Chalice
Bo Diddley - Pretty Thing
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljfceJwgDwk
BB King - Paying The Cost To Be The Boss
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HC94GVNftw
.
w jeff beck
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ji3UtwFIyY
Don't get the whiny folks.
You know QE is going to continue and that it inflates the asset bubble so why aren't you attempting to profit from it?
Anyway, I foresee continued QE at least til Q3 2014, I don't believe earnings are going to catch up to the trading prices within that timespan and unemployment will rise when more people return to the labor force. We will probably have some QE-turbulence as usual and will probably have to take lead from China's attempt at economic restructuring.
It's time to play tactical hit and runs in these markets, you can't be in it for the long haul.