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QEeen Yellen Nomination Hearing - Post Mortem (Dovish 32 : 18 Hawkish)
The soon-to-be-confirmed Mr. Chairwoman had plenty to say - none of which came as a great surprise. Overall we scored her comments 32 Dovish to 18 Hawkish (which fits with all pre-conceved ideas about the size of her index-finger in relation to the 'print' button). A few cherubs include:
- *YELLEN SAYS BENEFITS OF QE STILL EXCEED THE COSTS
- *YELLEN SAYS QE `CANNOT CONTINUE FOREVER'
- *YELLEN DOESN'T SEE ASSET BUBBLE IN HOUSING PRICES
- *YELLEN SAYS QE IS NOT AIMED AT HELPING TO FINANCE U.S. DEFICIT
- *YELLEN: NO ONE HAS A GOOD MODEL ON WHAT INFLUENCES GOLD PRICES
She covered fiscal policy, regulation, gold, income inequality, and bubbles; but it was her admission late in the Q&A that "real" unemployment is around 10% that perhaps leaves the most room for moar...
Full transcript and worldcloud to come...
Dovish
*YELLEN SAYS SHE WOULD BE STRONGLY COMMITTED TO PROMOTE RECOVERY
*YELLEN SAYS JOBLESS RATE REMAINS HIGH
*YELLEN SAYS LONG PERIODS OF UNEMPLOYMENT `PARTICULARLY PAINFUL'
*YELLEN SAYS BENEFITS OF QE STILL EXCEED THE COSTS
*YELLEN: MUST NOT REMOVE SUPPORT WHILE RECOVERY IS `FRAGILE'
*YELLEN SAYS IT'S IMPORTANT NOT TO REMOVE SUPPORT TOO SOON
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC COMMITTED TO 2 PERCENT INFLATION GOAL
*YELLEN SAYS LOWER MORTGAGE RATES KEY TO HELPING HOUSING RECOVER
*YELLEN SEES `NO SET TIME' FOR TAPERING QE
*YELLEN SAYS WEAK DEMAND IS `A MAJOR DRAG' ON ECONOMY
*YELLEN SAYS FED DOESN'T SEE BUILDUP OF FINANCIAL RISKS
*YELLEN SEES LIMITED EVIDENCE OF `REACH FOR YIELD'
*YELLEN SAYS FED DOESN'T SEE BROAD BUILD-UP OF LEVERAGE
*YELLEN DOESN'T SEE `MISALIGNMENTS' IN ASSET PRICES
*YELLEN SAYS BROADER UNEMPLOYMENT GAUGES HIGHER THAN 7.3 PERCENT
*YELLEN SAYS POLICY AIMED TO `BROADLY BENEFIT ALL AMERICANS'
*YELLEN SAYS RECOVERY HAS BEEN `DISAPPOINTING'
*YELLEN WOULDN'T SUPPORT ANY REDUCTION IN FED POLICY LEEWAY
*YELLEN SAYS ECONOMY HAS SUFFERED A DRAG FROM FISCAL POLICY
*YELLEN SAYS STIMULUS BOOST TO HOME PRICES `BROADLY BENEFICIAL'
*YELLEN: FED NEEDS TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT POLICY IMPACT ON MARKETS
*YELLEN SAYS NORMAL ECONOMY WILL RESTORE `NORMAL RATES'
*YELLEN SAYS FED WILL TRY TO MITIGATE INTEREST RATE RISK
*YELLEN SAYS FISCAL POLICY HAS WORKED AGAINST MONETARY POLICY
*YELLEN SAYS FED `WORRIED ABOUT A FRAGILE RECOVERY'
*YELLEN SAYS FED VERY FOCUSED ON ACHIEVING DUAL MANDATE
*YELLEN SAYS FED INTENT ON AVOIDING DEFLATION
*YELLEN SAYS FED MADE PROGRESS ON EMPLOYMENT, `NOT THERE YET'
*YELLEN DOESN'T SEE ASSET BUBBLE IN HOUSING PRICES
*YELLEN SAYS LOW INTEREST RATES WILL GET ECONOMY BACK TO NORMAL
*YELLEN SAYS SAVERS HAVE BROADER ARRAY OF INTERESTS IN ECONOMY
*YELLEN SAYS SHE'D LIKE TO SEE JOB MARKET RECOVER MORE RAPIDLY
Hawkish
*YELLEN SEEKS `SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT' IN LABOR MARKET OUTLOOK
*YELLEN SEEKS `STRONG' AND ROBUST RECOVERY
*YELLEN: FOMC HAS TOOLS TO REMOVE STIMULUS TO LIMIT INFLATION
*YELLEN SEES `IMPROVEMENT IN THE LABOR MARKET'
*YELLEN SAYS QE `CANNOT CONTINUE FOREVER'
*YELLEN SAYS FED TAKES RISKS OF QE `VERY SERIOUSLY'
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC UNDERSTANDS RISKS THE LONGER QE CONTINUES
*YELLEN SAYS `WE ARE EXPECTING CONTINUED PROGRESS GOING FORWARD'
*YELLEN SAYS FED NEEDS TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FINANCIAL RISKS
*YELLEN SAYS FED LOOKS OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL ASSET PRICE BUBBLES
*YELLEN: MONETARY POLICY A `BLUNT TOOL' AGAINST ASSET BUBBLES
*YELLEN SAYS LOW RATES `CAN INDUCE RISKY BEHAVIOR'
*YELLEN WOULDN'T RULE OUT MONETARY POLICY TO FIX MISALIGNMENTS
*YELLEN: FED TO ENSURE BIG BANKS HOLD MORE, BETTER CAPITAL
*YELLEN EXPECTS GROWTH RATE TO PICK UP
*YELLEN SAYS SHE SUPPORTED AS MANY AS 27 MAIN RATE INCREASES
*YELLEN SAYS FED HAS TOOLS TO AVERT EMERGENCE OF ASSET BUBBLE
*YELLEN SAYS FED NEEDS TO WATCH INVESTMENT IN REAL ESTATE
On QE
*YELLEN SEES `DANGERS' ON BOTH SIDES OF ENDING QE TOO EARLY
*YELLEN SAYS QE HAS MADE `MEANINGFUL CONTRIBUTION' TO GROWTH
*YELLEN SAYS QE HAS HELPED PUSH DOWN INTEREST RATES
*YELLEN SAYS LOWER INTEREST RATES HELPING HOMEOWNERS
*YELLEN SAYS QE IS NOT AIMED AT HELPING TO FINANCE U.S. DEFICIT
*YELLEN SAYS POLICY HAS BOOSTED STOCKS `TO SOME EXTENT'
*YELLEN SAYS FED SHOULD NEVER BE `A PRISONER OF THE MARKETS'
*YELLEN SAYS `SAVERS ARE HURT' BY LOW INTEREST RATE POLICY
But Never expected QE to work...
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC LAST YEAR EXPECTED LITTLE PROGRESS ON JOBS
On Supervision
*YELLEN SAYS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT FOR BANKS TO HAVE MORE CAPITAL
*YELLEN SAYS FED `VERY FOCUSED' ON BROAD FINANCAIL STABILITY
*YELLEN SAYS ADDRESSING TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL AMONG TOP GOALS
*YELLEN SAYS U.S. WILL RAISE CAPITAL STANDARDS FOR BIG BANKS
*YELLEN SAYS TOO-BIG-TO-FAIL FIRMS GET DE FACTO SUBSIDY
*YELLEN: U.S. FINANCIAL SYSTEM SAFER, SOUNDER THAN PRE-CRISIS
*YELLEN: FED IN COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF BANK COMMODITY ACTIVITY
*YELLEN SAYS FED `RAMPING UP' MONITORING OF FINANCIAL STABILITY
*YELLEN SAYS FED `MASSIVELY REVAMPED' SUPERVISION OF BIG BANKS
*YELLEN SAYS SUPERVISION JUST AS IMPORTANT AS MONETARY POLICY
On Jobs
*YELLEN SAYS FULL EMPLOYMENT RANGES FROM 5 PERCENT TO 6 PERCENT
*YELLEN SAYS `ALL TOO MANY PEOPLE' HAVE LEFT LABOR FORCE
*YELLEN SEES `WIDENING WAGE INEQUALITY' SINCE MID-1980S
*YELLEN SAYS FED POLICIES `MEANT TO GENERATE A ROBUST RECOVERY'
*YELLEN SAYS SHE'D LIKE TO SEE JOB MARKET RECOVER MORE RAPIDLY
*YELLEN SAYS FASTER U.S. GROWTH WOULD BUOY JOB MARKET
*YELLEN SAYS INCOME INEQUALITY `VERY SERIOUS PROBLEM'
*YELLEN SAYS `MANY THINGS' AT ROOT OF INCOME INEQUALITY
*YELLEN SAYS `ROBUST RECOVERY' WOULD HELP MITIGATE INEQUALITY
And On Gold...
*YELLEN: NO ONE HAS A GOOD MODEL ON WHAT INFLUENCES GOLD PRICES
*YELLEN SAYS GOLD OFTEN USED AS A HAVEN AGAINST RISK
Other
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC REGULARLY ASSESSES GROWTH, JOBS PROGRESS
*YELLEN SAYS SHE HOPES FOR STRONGER WAGE GROWTH
*YELLEN SAYS SHE STRONGLY SUPPORTS TRANSPARENCY AT FED
*YELLEN SAYS FED NEEDS TO RETAIN POLICY INDEPENDENCE
*YELLEN: FED SHOULD BE FREE OF `SHORT-TERM POLITICAL PRESSURES'
*YELLEN SAYS FED WILL WITHDRAW STIMULUS WHILE SUSTAINING GROWTH
*YELLEN SAYS DEFICIT REDUCTION SHOULD FOCUS ON MEDIUM-TERM GAINS
*YELLEN FAVORS FISCAL POLICY THAT `DID NO HARM'
*YELLEN SAYS U.S. DEBT DEFAULT WOULD BE CATASTROPHIC
*YELLEN SAYS FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY A CRITICAL GOAL
Via Bloomberg
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Why is she always YELLEN at me?
//QEeen Yellen is good.
Mine is: Janet "Jetson" Yellen® TM(Frozen IcQb).
QE to infinity and beyond! (Buzz and ZH friends)
Let me show you the future of central banking.
Let me show you... Parabolicte!
It is a policy, a way of life...
inspired by the very economists, the bankers...
the political whores that make this wonderful planet so unique.
And I want you, Janet Yellen, to be the face...
the image... nay,
the spirit of Parabolicte!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVscQYjuq_s
i have a parrot that gave me this same speech just the other day
QE cannot continue for ever, but it will continue until I become a multi-millionaire. Rest assured, I am grateful for both Bernanke and Yellen.
What did Chuck "S&P500" Schumer have to say?
"
No, that's just a beneficial side effect.
And total bullshit...it's the main reason based on the economic impact of QE.
I have to wonder why is that those dirtbags are the ones that never are the victims of horrible accidents like their brakes failing or some random other mechanical failure.
How do you become so clueless and get to be Fed Chairperson?
Pretending to be clueless is just 1 of the requirements..... to become the head of ClubFed.
Get a Phd in Economics. Be very smart but be a total intellectual conformist committed to staying right in the center of box that's kept you fed.
Shocking none of them asked her is she thought QE and a rising stock maket was giving congress cover to do absolutely nothing to solve any of the problems driving this country down the toilet.
Perhaps it's the company you keep?
In summary, "Let's turn up the volume on this motherfucker to 11 already!"
This is utter BS the QE over the last 7 years has done nothing and will continue to do nothing but make wall street richer.
It has done nothing? I beg your pardon, but aside from making Wall Street richer it has done great harm to nearly everyone who's not in the 0.1% . I wouldn't dare to call that "nothing", but you are right insofar as it has done nothing positive.
Oh, I rather enjoyed that portion of the testimony when the pint sized criminal syndicate banker had to admit that the Fed has been abusing savers. But...the beatings will continue until morale improves, of course.
She then has the audacity to bemoan about unemployment. Well, many of these savers depend on interest as income. It was the Fed that fired them, not the market. The Fed stole trillions from savers by supprssing interest rates.
Yellen is Bernanke with a sex change.
Are you sure? Bernanke was a cunt afterall
http://www.forexlive.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Yellenanke1.jpg
MY EYES!
YELLEN: NO ONE HAS A GOOD MODEL ON WHAT INFLUENCES GOLD PRICES
There is a good model that shows what affects gold prices - it is the relentless attacks by the Fed. The motto of the Fed should be: By way of deception, thou shalt do war
I hate em, but this is a tactically smart thing for them to say. Much smarter then BB denying Gold is Money, which tends to get people talking about what the central bankers in more productive economies keep saying about the matter.
Saying that gold is a random walk dispenses with the issue nicely. When it goes up, it means nothing, when it goes down, well what are ya gonna do?
The problem with your random walk explaination, is that it is CLEARLY non-Gaussian. So, anybody with half a brain knows that the random walk explaination is more private Fed bullshit.
I mentioned below that my model, and a good one that empirically fits the data, is:
MANIPULATION + jump process (heavy tailed) noise.
Oh, and fuck you Mrs. Debtfire.
What use/good is a "model", when blatant manipulation and oppression is in place by the Fed and its (private/secret) shareholders?
Hedge and DIVERSIFY accordingly, i.e. hold Primary, Secondary and Tertiary assets. Domestically and Globally.
And screw the magic-bullet or one-trick pony investment (gambling!) "advice" you get from some one-asset class shills or snake-oil/shale-oil salesmen!
"By way of deception, thou shalt do war". - The Mossad motto*, per http://100777.com/node/431
It turns out that their Semitic cousins -- Muslims -- also have the same belief and theological basis. Islam permits lying! It is called “Al-taqiyya.” One Muslim said that Al-taqiyya means dissimulation, then he expanded it to diplomacy but he should have gone further to deception.
See link below for details...
http://muslimfact.com/bm/terror-in-the-name-of-islam/islam-permits-lying...
To my knowledge, "Christians" and lawyers are not allowed to "lie" outright. Rather, they are allowed to limit themselves to "lying by omission", and to using legal and verbal tricks of PR & Debate: Deflection, Redirection, Preemptive- or Counter-Attack.
* Top: "Kee betachbulot ta'ase lecha milchama" = Translation: "With clandestine terrorism we will conduct war" = Luciferian view
(Note - This totally contradicts classic Jewish ethics, and reminds one of the "Protocols of the Elders of Zion")
Bottom: "Ha'Mossad Le'modiein" = Translation: "The institute for the collection of Information" = Friends of NSA = Luciferian view
She's worried about a fragile recovery’ but she hasn’t expressed the same kind of worry about a multi-trillion dollar balance sheet...
If you can get people to think that it's "fragile" then you can get them to miss "broken" (at which point "recovery" really is NOT the word to be using).
Kind of like switching "Trickle Down" to "ripple effects"...
jebus fuck what a disgusting cunt
The worthless POS that downed you is also a cunt.
senate should block this nomination and instead choose someone with little more common sense and real-life experience.
what they need is someone with at least a high school equivalent accounting backround
I would take a poo flinging monkey over anyone. At least then we would have some randomness.
pods
I must admit it utterly baffles me how they can say, "we will print another bazillion $$$" and gold goes up $20 and then they say, "but someday, in theory, these bazillions will end" and it immediately gives up all gains.
Her statements that the Fed can see bubbles, and they look for them and there are none is the tell here. It's full steam ahead money printing in case anyone doubted that.
But still all they have to do is say, "maybe someday the printing will stop", and the commodity markets signal deflation.
The algo's read the newswire and then make trades in those nanoseconds when stocks n commodities rise and fall. Think of the scale a high frequency trading program can use in reaction to good or bad news especially if the owner of the program is using phoney fed dollars.
stay save, stay in BITCOIN
New Record Highs:
http://btcpost.net/index.php
I hope somehow bitcoin succeeds, but as soon as the Congress makes it illegal, it will be $.01 in the first five minutes. Maybe it will recover after that...
You think that Congress has the "authority?" Ha ha!
They quite readily accept the "illegal," what do you think is happening with the NSA? (note: BitCoin runs on the NSA's network)
Bitcoin fell, what, $100 on Saturday on the mere mention congress was "looking into it".
If they act, its a no brainer bitcoin goes under $1 almost instantly.
What happens later on is another matter.
I'd shoot myself in the head trying to make a pricing model for selling products in a currency that fluctuates 10-20% a day.
Bitcoin may have had intentions of being a currency at some point, but its nothing but a pyramid scheme now.
Buy one Bitcoin for $400 and then find ten friends and sell them 1/10th of a Bit coin for $50 telling them 1/10th of a Bitcoin will be worth $500 when Bitcoin goes to $5000. Or they find ten friends and sell them 1/20th of a Bitcoin for $40. So on and so on.
Bitcoin is based on CONfidence. As long as someone is willing to give up hard goods in exchange for Bitcoin, they will retain value.
I think it's a novelty that will go much higher before it crashes due to some actions on the part of .gov.
I wouldn't be surprised if .gov has been buying up Bitcoin and is behind the price increase. They may be buying to drive the price up to create a blow off top and then dump a bunch to crash the price and scare out the weak hands.
May be some good trading opportunities but one must be ready to buy on the crash. It may not be temporary though.
I pressed a few of the Bitards yesterday on another thread. They provide very few real answers to legimate concerns on Bitcoin. Moar like deflect, evade and dodge.
All I know is that she is inheriting one huge pile of steaming financial shit and the fuel rods have alreay started to melt through the floor.
No one in their right mind would stand up and proclaim that we're all fucked, especially not those whose very existence is made by them NOT saying such. And, really, people wouldn't believe the truth if it hit them between the eyes: whether this is by design (ala Edward Bernays) or proof of the end of evolution I don't know, but people will likely blame anyyone and everyone, never coming to grips that we've hit peak everything.
Gonna start a punk band and call it "The Radioactive Shit Rods."
When we play shows we'll wear suits and Bernanke, Greenspan, Yellen, and Hank Paulson masks.
What a crazy bitch. She says prices were a bubble in 2007. But since prices fell, they are no longer a bubble, even though they are higher than the highs of 2007. The economy is half of what it was in 2007. Markets should be as well. How can you say it was a bubble and then justify the same prices today when our economy is the green shits?
Maybe it has to do with the total number of participants? Back in 2007 you had regular people engaged in the euphoria. Today it's only the MSM and its carnaval: yeah, well, regular people are still going to get indirectly fucked (tax burdens and pension funds etc.), but, just like all those who have dropped out of the labor pool, they don't count...
It seems that everytime a company is in its death throes, a woman is usually put in as CEO. If Yellen's appointment is approved (which it will be), does this mean that time is almost up for this economy?
Or Negro (half even).
Yellen says Dewey defeats Truman.
I wonder what she thinks "real" CPI is.
Depends on the meaning of "real."
Depends on your meaning of "meaning" :)
Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the deflation that the central banks claim to be fighting inherent to a fractional reserve banking system in that when debts are repaid to banks money is in effect "destroyed," (the IOU from the loan created from nothing goes away)? So that as debt is repaid and no new debts are incurred, the amount of currency in the system decreases, increasing the purchasing power of all remaining currency and beginning the dreaded deflation?
Fucking double talk to hide the truth of what QE is for. Making members of the tribe exceedingly rich.
That is the entire point of our economy now. A couple Harvard tribesmen making an app for sending shout outs at fraternity parties can be worth more than $3 billion because members of the tribe in the venture capital space see an opportunity to fleece more people for money.
Sigh, we're likely to miss the point at which we can throw THEM out before they get around to throwing US out...
I have a good model for what moves gold. The federal reserves money printing and paper market manipulation.
You know, now that they've discovered a "unicorn" things might be as THEY claim:
http://newswatch.nationalgeographic.com/tag/unicorn/
I'd read some other article on this in which someone commenting asked whether they tasted like rainbows- I thought that hysterical (which is really why I want to introduce this here now, in the face of total insanity and all).
*YELLEN: NO ONE HAS A GOOD MODEL ON WHAT INFLUENCES GOLD PRICES
What a dumbfuck. Here is my good model of gold prices: MANIPULATION + jump process/heavy tailed noise.
Now, I can be chairperson...oh, wait, I can't - I'm not a useful idiot.
Who cares WHAT they say, really?
Gold jumped up today. Is this good or bad? (and why)
My point was they are in a credibility trap (Jessie's word), and they just keep digging deeper and deeper. If they truely wanted to save the US, they would say different things AND act different. They don't. They want to preserve the current power structure and suck up all wealth that isn't theirs already. I purchase PMs for wealth preservation, regardless of what some old bag lady has to say.
There is going to be an epic collapse soon. Holding productive assets and PMs are one way of solving the old problem of how to you out run a bear - run faster than the guy next to you.
Yes, we're in agreement.
In order to "save the US" I figure we'd have to clearly define what it means, what, that is, is to be saved. I suspect that you, as I do, see that most of what we thought should be saved really doesn't exist any more.
Watch for falling trees. And, yes, the advice on how to avoid being a bear's meal (it's one of my favorites). PMs are a no-brainer. "Productive assets," however, requires a bit more thought (and vision), but it's not too tough to figure if you concentrate on the TRUE fundamentals.
Yes, my thoughts too.
Tree farms are one form of productive assets...
*YELLEN DOESN'T SEE ASSET BUBBLE IN HOUSING PRICES
You f*cking crony asswipe. There is a rent price bubble and now your cronies at Blackstone will be trading rental bonds!!!
Nice.