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6 Things To Ponder This Weekend

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 

 

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Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:54 | 4159565 NoDebt
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Great.  Another homework assignment.  And my favorite subject- bubbles.  Come monday I have a feeling the dog will have eaten my homework on this one.

How about I turn it in early?

When NoDebt's investments have risen so far, so fast that he cares more about their value than his working-job income, you are in a bubble.  I have arrived at that point.  Shouldn't be too long before they yank the rug out from under my feet again.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:51 | 4159772 DoChenRollingBearing
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NoDebt, I sold stock ETFs and a mutual fund today (each tracked an index).  I am not completely out, but I think that selling now is good (at record highs and all).

But, I have been a new Seller of stocks for 20 years...

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 22:07 | 4159814 icanhasbailout
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"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:10 | 4159917 max2205
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If you are short

Sun, 11/17/2013 - 13:45 | 4162650 mkhs
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No worries, then.  I'm 6 ft. tall.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:16 | 4159927 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yes but it's still the third phase of the Bull Market; it's a momentum market; greater fools appearing from the woodwork to join the unstoppable upward momentum. Any date between now and next year at this time won't surprise me at all; and furthermore, it's a very unstable market; when it goes, it's going to make a smoking hole in the ground.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:53 | 4159968 jeff montanye
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once again john hussman has some light to shed here.  he notes that the current market resembles the log periodic pattern described by didier sornette.  mid january, 2014; s&p 500 1920.  the top (best/worst case).

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc131111.htm 

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 05:02 | 4160202 tawse57
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The link does not work.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:18 | 4159928 SAT 800
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J.P. Morgan was pretty good at this sort of thing and he taught us our first great lesson; always sell too early.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:20 | 4159932 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Old wisdom in the futures market; when you're acting to secure profits/ move faster. When you're acting to put on new positions/ go slower.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:54 | 4159569 Race Car Driver
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> The real surprise in 2014 could very well be ...

... tanks in the streets (in a wholesome, flag waving, let's-give-a-warm-block-party-welcome to the Russian troops kinda way).

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 11:03 | 4160386 daemon
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" ... tanks in the streets... "

I would tend to think so too.

 In fact when he writes :  " What will that catalyst be?  I have no idea and nor does anyone else. "  ,  I'm tempted to answer that when DHS is ready and there are a sufficient number of drones in the sky , any false flag will do .

The big masquerade will stop . Change of regime, welcome to the new king .

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 20:00 | 4159587 trevor15
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Suspecting Mr. Russell was put at the end for a reason....

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 20:14 | 4159611 NOTaREALmerican
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I think there's a bubble in bubble talk.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 20:30 | 4159628 erikaappleihzyjtyeg
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I decided to personally help the bubble along......

I bot 50 shars of NFLX today.

If history is any indicator, an epic crash is eminent.

 

 

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 11:23 | 4160424 Sabibaby
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Hold on, let me buy AAPL

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 20:35 | 4159639 Yen Cross
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    Why does everyone keep saying corp. profits are at record levels?  The Q3 earnings were mediocre at best...

  Look at what companies do to generate those numbers> stock buybacks, skeleton crew employment levels, non existant CAPEX, ect...

  I wont even go into the ultra low earnings estimates that are revised a week or two before quarterly reporting starts. Oh, and lets look at the most important of all indicators, "top line revenue" keeps shrinking...

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:53 | 4159775 DoChenRollingBearing
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+ 1

One of many reasons I continue to GOTS (Sinclair).

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 20:58 | 4159666 OutLookingIn
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Talk is cheap.

Opinions are even cheaper!

What will be - will be.

Are you better off? Is your local community better off? How about the county in which you live? Is your State better off? Whats your "gut feeling" on how the country is doing?

When you speak to people, do they voice their concerns? Are we better off? Is the world better off?

Ask these questions of yourself and others. I think you will have your questions answered. We are not better off.  

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 09:58 | 4160323 shovelhead
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My dog seems pretty happy and the current state of affairs doesn't bother him in the least.

'Better off' is a meaningless term if you can't remember yesterday.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:12 | 4159681 orangegeek
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Over the last 100 years, avg bull market = 54 months

 

currently at 56 months

 

ONWARD!!!!!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:58 | 4159787 Ham-bone
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Are we in the third phase of a bull market?  Most who read this article will say "no."

Not a bull market.  Not a market.  It is definitely Bull something though.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 22:23 | 4159853 CarrierWave
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Surprisingly, stating DAILY that the Top is upon us results in one or more Authors saying eventually 'Told ya so'.

TOPS are only known in hindsight. NO ONE knows ahead of time when a Top or a Bottom will hit.

ZH articles have been calling almost Daily for a TOP and a CRASH COMING in the last 12 months, and here we are. +30% in the DOW/NAS/SP500 etc.

Trade WITH the Trend!  Use Stops! Manage your portfolio responsibly!

Good Trading.

 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:36 | 4159906 Dr. Engali
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Lance needs to understand that this is no longer a market, it is a policy tool. And the policy tool will continue to rise regardless of economic conditions. It will not fall until TPTB pulls the rug out. When that happens there will be no escaping for anybody.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:06 | 4159911 TheRideNeverEnds
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I concur.  The fact that so many people are talking about a bubble and all the "pros" are painfully short confirms the fact that this is not a bubble yet.  That combined with my in depth technical, fundamental, macro and historical analysis lead me to a price target and top around 5500 in 2015.  This time next year when SPX is trading over 3,000 people will be screaming bubble, but not yet.  When we break 5500 the year after and everyone has given up / gone long and is singing the praises of the FED and how this time really was different for real; WHAM!... they will hit em... hard.  

 

However even down 70% from 5500 would barely bring you back into the black from being short at this level even if you managed to hold them till then.  

 

Long story short, we are not even close to capitulation yet.  Risk is to the upside, as we breeze through 1800 next Monday take a picture, you will probably never see them that low again.  

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:22 | 4159933 SAT 800
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As far as the "catalyst" goes; I think Shit Happens; and the media pick whatever story they like, which then becomes "the reason". I really believe this.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:45 | 4159960 Hohum
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The question is how long can the upward redistribution last?  Answers may vary.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 05:05 | 4160206 tawse57
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12 months ago ZH was warning of bubbles and immient collapse and us lot who listened have missed out on HUGE gains in 2013. Meanwhile PMs have plunged.

Must remember to do the opposite of what ZH says will happen.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 08:08 | 4160264 orkneylad
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Another thing to ponder is why the Bitcoin price has gone through the roof?

Amazing trajectory. . . . . . any thoughts?

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 08:54 | 4160280 rationaldemocracy
rationaldemocracy's picture

Nothing amazing about it at all, it's just the work of some digital hunt brothers

my friend got me into bitcoin when it was 6 dollars a piece, I actually have about half a dozen stuck in some far corner on the Internet that I will never be able to find again because I don't have the wallet address anymore..do you ever wonder what wiill happen to them? I can't be the only person to have lost bitcoins in this way.

Anyway, Now that the baby boomers are talking about bit coin you know it's no longer cool anymore and is just a huge bubble.

 

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 09:08 | 4160289 venturen
venturen's picture

I got in on the twitter IPO and made a killing. Imagine all that money and no revenue. I have been riding the Tsla stock rocket and I am not selling till they are the most value company on the planet. These stocks are only going up...they don't need revenue! Amazon is amazing....stock goes up while they lose money...on massive volume! It is all GOOD! I did trade out of Venezuela a little late...but I think it can reach Zimbabwe heights. 

/SARC

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 09:47 | 4160315 shovelhead
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The catalyst?

Simple. When sellers outnumber buyers. Daily...then hourly...then minute to minute.

Blame goes to a rogue algo but the sellers keep selling.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 10:06 | 4160333 d edwards
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The mania phase will kick in when the Dow goes over the "magical" 16000 and S&P breaks 1800.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 11:15 | 4160411 andrewp111
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The mania Phase of a bull market can go on for years, just as it did in the dot com bubble and in the housing bubble just a few years later. Bubbles usually rise the fastest and the most in their last phase, so this is where most of the money is made. But you do want to get out a little early. You can't afford to get out one milisecond late, because once it collapses, there is no getting out at all.  With bond, stock, foreign real estate, and shadow banking bubbles collapsing at the same time, the entire global financial system is likely to simply freeze up and stop working. What is the correct timing to get out? That is the 64 trillion dollar question, isn't it?

You also have to diversify out of the financial system when you do get out. Megadollar profits on put options will do you no good if your exchange or your bank fails, and the FDIC only pays you 250K after a long delay.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 13:55 | 4160614 moneybots
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"Even typically sober observers like Jack Bogle argue that corporate profit growth will be 5% as far as the eye can see, which combined with a 2% dividend yield, will produce 7% annualized stock market returns or 5% adjusted for inflation"

The Russel 2K is up some 30% this year, not 7%.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 14:13 | 4160648 moneybots
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" The fact that so many people are talking about a bubble and all the "pros" are painfully short confirms the fact that this is not a bubble yet."

 

Greenspan says the market is not bubbly.  He said that twice before, during bubbles.

 

It is already a bubble.  It is obvious just from looking at a chart.  If they want to go full Venezuela, sure they can ramp the market up 300% in a year, but it is a bubble right now.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 14:24 | 4160657 moneybots
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"The third or speculative phase of a bull market is characterized by a wild and wooly and ever-increasing entrance by the retail public. This phase is characterized by hot tips, hype and pure greed."

 

I was reading about the orchestra leader who did not trust the stock market any more and had instead become a sub-prime lender, for 10-18% returns.  Yellen said last week she hadn't seen much evidence of people reaching for yield.  Blinders on.

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