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Cognitive Dissonance: Sell-Side Stock Analyst "Expectations" Edition

Tyler Durden's picture




 

How many more quarters of this Einsteinian insanity will it take for investors to realize the sell-side analysts' "forecasts" are worse than useless...?

 

The last six quarters have on average seen analyst forecasts for growth slide from 4% of hope-driven exuberance to a dead flatline reality... quarter-after-quarter...

 

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

 

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Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:03 | 4159455 gafgroocK
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Whelp, on a long enough time line, it hits zero

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:25 | 4159499 BTFDemocracy
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What about Bitcoin analysis? What's the forecast there?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:43 | 4159604 knukles
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"Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" as a definition of sanity is oft attributed to Al Einstein.  He did not however, insert an "is" between "insanity" and the purported definition.
Thus, he is describing an outcome related thereto.

"Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results" is a symptom of insanity.
Sanity itself is oft clinically referred to as "Clarity of Thought"

just a tidbit relating to the second step.... giggles

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:06 | 4159672 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
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$1600 by the end of 2014 but may touch $200 on the way, unless China outlaws it, in which case $100, then still up to $1600. If the Validation/redlisting proposal gets traction, then zero.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 17:49 | 4161065 Exponere Mendaces
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Its more likely that the USA will once again regulate its way out of a promising technology, in which case the spoils go overseas to UK/Europe/Asia.

The beauty about having millions around the globe is it isn't that easy to "regulate" them all. As for price, if we keep holding to the current exponential growth curve, (Don't laugh, it was dead-on for the run-up to 266 earlier this year) you're looking at about $500 by 11/19, and $1,000 by 12/04.

Given the prior magnitude of the other rise, the blow-off top will occur somewhere in the $1,000 range. Unless the prior strength is totally underestimated, then you could have a rather interesting situation where millions of new users - hello China - propel it to even greater limits on the curve.

It will have a blow-off top like prior rally episodes, the only true question is the actual magnitude.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:09 | 4159463 Cognitive Dissonance
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You rang? There is only one Cognitive Dissonance is these parts and he's living the good life in the Blue Ridge Mountains of South West Virginia.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:11 | 4159466 Say What Again
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How do you harmonize Kierkegaard's teleological suspension of the ethical with the Rousseauian social contract?

Yes I know -- You've seen that before

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:23 | 4159494 blindman
blindman's picture

north of there be those itching for an
additional c.d. investigative/editorial
post, just sayin' and waitin'...
or perhaps a mrs. cog second post?
just to tear the house down

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:31 | 4159516 Mrs. Cog
Mrs. Cog's picture

Workin' the problem... hold please. :-)

Shhh... don't tell Cog but I caught him writing at his keyboard yesterday in between chopping firewood and setting the possum trap on the porch.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:34 | 4159522 Cognitive Dissonance
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Possum pie for Sunday supper. Yum yum!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:40 | 4159753 blindman
blindman's picture

here, let me pass this music along.
.
Patrick Street - Music for a Found Harmonium
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PltA5woXKaA

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 22:59 | 4159904 RockyRacoon
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Hey, you guys... get a room.   Oh, wait, you already have one.  Never mind (Rosanna Rosanna Danna).

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:44 | 4159552 greatbeard
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>> the possum trap

What caliber possum trap y'all use?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:50 | 4159558 Mrs. Cog
Mrs. Cog's picture

It's a Havahart - got it amazon prime... But we are NOT relocating them 5-10 miles away because that would be illegal in this state. ;-)

We actually have a bobcat that alternates nights visiting our front porch with the possum. Frankly, our house cat is getting pretty wigged over all the activity lol.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:48 | 4159767 Dr. Venkman
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Mrs. Cog - When I was in Blacksburg, I once caught a possum with a throw blanket and a laundry basket. I still tell people I once had a pet possum to annoy my wife. Really it just hissed at me .

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:36 | 4159945 Nobody For President
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Yes Mrs. Cog, I lost two very dear house cats that never understood they are not the biggest varmits out there at night (northern CA forested ridge). Pretty sure a bobcat got one, don't know what got the other.

And then there's the night my 14 year old and a buddy staying here caught a coon in a tree and got her into an empty garbage can, all sans clothing. They are pushin' 50 now, and still remember it fondly.

And the night (first year - had a blanket for a door) some rustling in the kitchen brought me down from the loft to chase a damn coon out, and the flashlight caught him dead to rights under the sink - only he was a woods pussy with a nice white stripe down his back. I moderated my voice pretty quickly, and backed upstairs (sort of a ladder stairs - small place that became my shop) verrrrry slowly...it made nice and left quietly and without making a fuss.

Mrs. Nobody still remembers that - maybe not so fondly - but she remembers it.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 18:57 | 4161194 Drachma
Drachma's picture

Buy the looks of your avatar Mrs. Cog you seem to be cognizant of high-energy plasma discharges and perhaps their featuring on ancient petroglyphs?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:37 | 4159534 DCFusor
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And we're glad to have you as a neigbor, CD...nice out here, isn't it?  Better to bolt from the game a little early than too late, I say.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:43 | 4159545 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Mrs Cog and I were delighted to find a fellow ZH'er within a 30 mile radius. Either it's a small world or a large ZeroHedge population. ;)

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:43 | 4159756 Dr. Venkman
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I miss the Blue Ridge Mountains and biking the New River trails. And the kind folk. Pretty much the opposite of the NE Corridor. Sigh.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:20 | 4159490 Kirk2NCC1701
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Cognitive Dissonance is something all of us are vulnerable to.  In spite of their claims, most people don't want the truth.  What they really want, is the truth that's consistent with their existing world-view

Even most here on ZH.  You try to perturb their world-view with annoying things like facts and math, and they're more likely to repay you with sarcasm, ridicule and downright aggression, than to thank you.

That's why I keep saying that "There's nothing more predictable than the basic laws on nature and the basic laws of human nature."  And "You get more mileage out of telling people what they expect or want to hear, than what they need to hear."

Opportunist, Predators and the Top 2 % also know this, and have have lived by it quite successfully for thousands of years.  It's the 98% who like to delude themselves, or allow the 2% to do so, that accounts for most of their servitude.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:49 | 4159559 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Spot on. I usually get junked when I say that we are the problem. That just can't be. It's the politicians and banksters. If we were to throw those bums out things would get better. Right?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:15 | 4159923 RockyRacoon
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Too bad we have created a system wherein only BUMS can be elected!  You are right -- it is our own fault.

The only way out is total collapse.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 08:21 | 4160269 MetalFillBoy
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Not sure total collapse will solve anything, at least in the long run.  Based on what Kirk said above("There's nothing more predictable than the basic laws on nature and the basic laws of human nature." ), we will end up right back where we started.

Let say we have a hard re-boot in this country.  We burn it to the ground.  We kill the 1% for what they did, and lots of other people will die along the way.  And then we start to rebuild.  Guess what happens?  A group of people rise up to lead us to a new country.  These people will become the new TPTB.  And based on basic laws of human nature, these folks will be no different than the group we just killed.  

I think a good example of this would be the 1997 movie "The Postman". General Bethlehem, played by Will Patton, had risen to power after the whole thing fell apart, and he was no better than those that lost their place as TPTB.  And he was a no one before the collapse. 

And if we are thinking, "If I was put in charge, I wouldn't do the things TPTB are doing now", then I think we are lying to ourselves.  Again, based on basic laws of human nature, you would basically act like the current TPTB.

MFB

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:49 | 4159562 greatbeard
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>> what they expect or want to hear,

I had a little statement I'd tell my salesmen in training, "sell them what they want to buy".  Some got it, some didn't.  Be it the right thing or not, it's much easier to sell something someone already wants.  Trying to convince them they are making a mistake and buying an inferior product not really suited to their needs was a waste of time and energy.  You'd end up with no sale and customers that thought you were a jerk.  Sell them what they want and you are a great salesmen and a wonderful guy, plus you get a commission.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 20:03 | 4159590 Element
Element's picture

 

 

It's the 98% who like to delude themselves, or allow the 2% to do so, that accounts for most of their servitude.

 

That and a police force to enforce the policies of politicians, who are proxy-'elected' via that 2%.

Cognitive Dissonance? Meet Civil Disobedience.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:21 | 4159492 Yen Cross
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  Might as well be watching 'Kabuki Theatre' in Fukushima while fuel rods are being removed from reactor building #4 fuel pool.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:42 | 4159535 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

These graphs are useless unless there's lines for pathological optimism,  economic bullshit, political bullshit, average prostate saturation levels, and patriotism on the graph someplace. 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 23:40 | 4159955 Nobody For President
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You mean like the kind William Banzai7 makes? 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:45 | 4159543 Atomizer
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The graph is no different than a jet breaking the sound barrier. At the end, the jet throttles down or runs out of jet fuel. We need to set up a special interest group study to determine the outcome of running out of jet fuel and crashing into the ground. This way, the lemmings can validate by sacrificing their deaths. The MSM can victimize phantom deaths thu lack of subsidized reform. :)

 

Welcome to your world of illusion. Quite sickening eh?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:43 | 4159544 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Sure is quiet out there....

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:55 | 4159575 ZeroBoBo
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Sell side, where analysts are required to mean what they say, but not allowed to say what they mean...

Anyways, aside from company CEOs that need to be rubbed the right way, do you know a single buyside investor that puts confidence in these targets and ratings?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 20:06 | 4159596 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Just watch Jim Cramer Mad Money Sitcom TV show if you want to get rubbed out

Jim Cramer Bear Stearns is Fine 3-11-08

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 11:12 | 4160379 robochess
robochess's picture

Trust me when i say you guys give too much weight and value to all this shit. I advise drinking heavily for the first few years interspersed with serious assorted barbs and speed caps. 

You blither and blather away in the Tower of Babel full of sound and fury which as you know signifies nothing.

Chillax the best you can, whenever you can. Raging against the machine at best is comforting; at worst pointless, a useless waste of time better spent getting along with the man in the mirror.

The point is: you'll be older, much older before you fucking know it. At that point the man in mirror will simply ask, "What did you accomplish with all that rage over the years?" It won't ask, "How's the revolution going?" This is not an island nation like Cuba.

Tear it down if you must, I assure you you have nothing to replace it that, as pointed out above, won't eventually revert back to man in nature looking for new order leaders. Kinda like the Hitler thing.

Mankind, as it turns out, just can't focus on progress for all... it ALWAYS gets sidetracked by the PIGS in Orwell's house. 

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 11:07 | 4160397 Grin Bagel
Grin Bagel's picture

It's good to read some civility back on these posts.

Thanx ol' timers. I did see a local red fox the other day, but we don't have coons and skunks here in Southern Chile.

 I did love the few times in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia, but been there, done that and now it's exploring the rivers, lakes and glaciers of this beautiful Southern Andies region from my base in the heart of Mapuche country.

 

Just saying is all.

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