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Mission (Almost) Accomplished: S&P 500 Nears Bernanke's 1,800 Year-End Target

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we "forecast" this morning (and a month ago - if our extrapolation of the Fed's balance sheet is correct - i.e. no Taper - that the S&P 500 Fed L-A-B-I-A should be around 1800 by year-end), the Fed can be proud that they managed (remember it "costs" $3.25bn in POMO to create 1 S&P 500 point) to get the key US equity index - the S&P 500 - near the critical 1,800 level...

 

 

Mission (Almost) Accomplished...

 

Cue Tom Lee... need to re-raise that year-end target again stat... (of course there is always the real "Bernanke" plan)

The S&P is now its richest relative to LABIA since early August...

 

The last four weeks have seen the S&P 500 rise 4%, IG credit spreads drop 1bps, and HY credit spreads +6bps (as supply overwhelms a saturated credit market)...

 

Off the debt-ceiling lows... indices are unstoppable... (Trannies +12.5%!)

 

With every dip in any sector bid to infinity... (Discretionary and Industrials +11%!!)

 

Gold made it back to unchanged on the week thanks the Yellenomics...

 

Treasuries rallied 5-8bps on the week...

 

FX markets saw USD weakness all day... ending the week -0.45% (and -0.9% against the EUR)...

 

Investors appeared to protecting some gains during day (and it was OPEX) but VIX was levered into the close as they tried to tag 1800..

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: It seems the bubble in "bubble" speak has been a lot bubblier in the past...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: This is what a bubble looks like...

 

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: You ain't seen nothing yet... NKY is up 1480 points in 6 days...

 

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Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:10 | 4159108 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Nice try, HFT bots. Monday is another day.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:12 | 4159120 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I would like to see a hash-tag storm similar to the #askjpm, only this time it be #askben

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:46 | 4159237 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Serious question:  Has the fed made any statement regarding what they think would happen to our economy, if they were to taper now.  I'm strugling to understand what they are really afraid of, should they start to taper.

Regardless of whether we agree with their logic, I still want to know their official reason for their behavior.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:56 | 4159258 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

It's earnings season and they suck for most companies. The stock market keeps going up. That's QE for ya.

Sat, 11/16/2013 - 03:24 | 4160172 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

It is not just the Fed.

 

The entire western world is engaged in QE. ECB just had a cut

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:00 | 4159272 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

exactly...good question. "if all is well why QE?" this thing looks like a frenzy to me..."risk accordingly." the yen got crushed this week...Charlie Bass is looking "good over the long haul" here. I would also take any news of Chinese/Japanese tensions VERY seriously.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:26 | 4159356 Bryan
Bryan's picture

They are afraid of deflation, and that's about it.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 22:03 | 4159803 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

The Fed gives lip service (known as jawboning, one of the Fed's powers) to the consequences of a taper but has no intention of tapering. Simple as that.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:07 | 4159293 max2205
max2205's picture

2500 easy by March

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:13 | 4159326 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

I am a DOW36Ker. I believe DOW will hit 36000 by 2016.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:12 | 4159115 digitlman
digitlman's picture

ZU up 71% (1st day IPO?)

 

What do they do?  Who the fuck knows! 

 

But who cares!  BTFATH!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:15 | 4159132 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

A serious answer to a rhetorical question.

http://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/photo-release----nasdaq-welcomes-zul...

"A unique shopping destination for moms." Yep - we've officially gone back in time to 2000.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:19 | 4159151 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Well, this bullshit is certainly worth $37 /share.

 

LMAO.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:48 | 4159244 adr
adr's picture

I must have woken from a coma and landed in Idiocracy.

Well I guess some insiders go their cash again. Funny how the stock opened up 70% and went nowhere all day.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:26 | 4159358 asierguti
asierguti's picture

Pets.com. From the IPO to bankrupcy in 9 months.

 

Party like it's 1999!!!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:41 | 4159403 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

And from their "Privacy Statement":

Personal Information is information that we directly associate with an identifiable person or entity, such as name, address, telephone numbers, email addresses, twitter handle, Social Security Number, demographic information (such as date of birth, age and gender), payment information (including credit card numbers or online payment services numbers), financial information (such as bank account numbers), purchase history and location information (often from the device on which you use our site or mobile applications). We may obtain Personal Information about you from various sources, such as this and other websites and mobile applications, third parties and when you call or email us or interact with us via social media. You may also submit Personal Information to us in other ways, such as participating in online surveys, promotions, contests and sweepstakes, subscribing to newsletters and other offerings through the zulily website. In addition, we may combine information received from third parties with Personal Information and Usage Data we collect about you.

 

And people bitch about the NSA?!! Why the fuck does diaper buying require SSNs.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:34 | 4159198 asierguti
asierguti's picture

Worse than that.

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2013/11/13/snapchat-spurned-3-billion-acquis...

 

Basically an startup founded 2 years ago, with a 23 years old CEO, not many users and 0 revenue, is offered 3 billion dollars by Facebook.

 

WTF!!!!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MUhOxS-F-Zk

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:59 | 4159267 adr
adr's picture

Interview with the new American billionaire:

Reporter: So you're 23 with a company worth billions. Have you ever had a job before?

Asshat: No. Other than being an intern at my father's law firm. Well not really an intern, I got paid to shuffle papers around.

Reporter: So you've never held a job or run a business?

Asshat: No, but its not like its hard. We haven't even sold anything but we keep getting people to give us money. I just bought a new Lambo.

Reporter: Well how did you come up with this idea?

Asshat: Well me and my frat brothers just finished a few beer bongs and five ounces of pot. I was like, dude wouldn't be cool if text messages could delete themselves after you send them so there wouldn't be any evidence. My Bro was like, fuck yeah. So we downloaded an app kit and borrowed some IM code. Then we added a few lines to make the messages delete themselves. Then we sent it to people we knew.

Reporter: If your product is free how are you going to make money?

Asshat: We put it on the App store and told my dad.

Reporter: What does your Dad have to do with making money?

Asshat: My Dad's Jewish and he knows a whole bunch of venture capital guys. That's how.

-----------

and now you know the story of how Snapchat was born.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:12 | 4159122 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Tech Bubble 2.0!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:41 | 4159219 TheRideNeverEnds
TheRideNeverEnds's picture

this is not a bubble, its the new normal.   volatility percentile near zero. every tiny pullback V bottoms straight up to new higher highs with velocity favoring the upside, most stocks moving at least two standard deviations to the upside nearly every expiration cycle.     

really the only thing we need to change is the option pricing formula, maybe just replace volatility with a QE input or something skewing calls as obviously volatility is a thing of the past and QE is all that matters. 

Now being that it is illigal for the market to go down, I dont know why people are even trying to short here.  clearly we are going signifigantly higher forever; there are no negative consequences to printing money so it shall continue forever, in fact why not increase it?  a couple percent per month is alright but why not more?     

 

think about it, find one reason they should stop QE ever?   there is none, none whatsoever.  

 

the question is not when will the market go down because that wont happen, ever. they will never again trade below 1800 next week as we breeze past it so take a picture to show your grandkids, the real question is which index will go up the fastest  and will we print 2000 by the end of DEC or will we have to wait for 2014? 

 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:57 | 4159260 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

I give over 50% odds for 2000 by EOY.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:07 | 4159296 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Agreed.  Given that, I expect that QE will also take the place of taxes, as well.  There is no reason to go through all that bother when you can print the incrimental QE to do taxes as well.  Plus that way the serfs don't have to be told that they didn't pay taxes, there are none.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:14 | 4159128 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Also - fix the fucking chat!

(been broken for me for a day, anyway).

 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:38 | 4159212 Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

VIVA LA NEW BUBBLEMANIA!!!

 

also, fix that fucking chat (2 days now...)

holla digi!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:15 | 4159131 The Final Countdown
The Final Countdown's picture

Just looking at these charts makes me feel sick

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:20 | 4159152 Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

And according to the singularity model, we won't see an end to this madness until the SP500 hit 1900.

Hell, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SP500 hit 2000!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:15 | 4159133 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Have the puppets in Washington figured out a budget yet, or how they are going to fund it?  I hear a lot of equity traders saying that it won't matter if interest rates rise.

Perhaps I missed something, but I think these guys simply want to be the first to sell.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:22 | 4159161 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

Laws: There will be no budget. They are arguing over the same shit they were in 2012, 2011, 2010.

They might as well fund it with double Citi Thank You points after buying the entire congressional staff Katy Perry tickets.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:40 | 4159217 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

budget, smudget. Yellen's soo Gellin.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:20 | 4159156 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

Yellens head is whopping big ugly bubble

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:17 | 4159138 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

I am "betting" on 2000 by Xmas and 2200 by Feb. I might just charter a sailboat in the meantime. I give up.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:21 | 4159157 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Hmm. Great idea. I just may have to steal it. The SS Tsar Pointless sounds like a sweet nautical vessel, no?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:24 | 4159165 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I am naming my new boat ZIRPsalot.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:30 | 4159179 Dr. Venkman
Dr. Venkman's picture

"The Mariner Eccles"

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:36 | 4159207 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

Liquidity Trap

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:12 | 4159319 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

Race To The Bottom

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:47 | 4159553 SpeakerFTD
SpeakerFTD's picture

The Rusty Bernankle

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:21 | 4159160 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

another day, another up day, must say i am shocked.

 

i am really curious as to how many red days there has actually been for the s&p and dow in 2013?

 

not that i would ever respect these assholes, but if they stopped coming out on a daily basis and telling us how important certain numbers are for the market next week, and just fucking come out and say the qe is the only reason for this and without it we would be 50-60 percent lower at least, id give them props.

 

how long can they lie to us, and tell us '' o well next week retail numbers come out, big number to watch for the market'', etc, when we know that if the number is good or bad, the s&p and dow will finish green.

 

 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:10 | 4159311 max2205
max2205's picture

14 up hours candles out of 15 hours....weeeee.  to tha moon!....I remember those days

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 22:14 | 4159829 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Dude, since 2008, the financial world has been one characterized by official actions and market events resulting in total and complete cognitive dissonance on the part of all rational observers, hence the name of one of the more prolific and profound posters here on ZH, and welcome to the club.

It is all designed to benefit the .001%. There is no other answer. Sad but true. The coup d'etat by the first order traitor Hank Paulson, patsy and stoolie Ben Bernanke, Rob Rubin, Larry Summers, and numerous others has been remarkably effective and utterly unstoppable.

There is nothing else to know.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:23 | 4159162 HUGE_Gamma
HUGE_Gamma's picture

BONUS CHART x3!!! everybody loves the BONUS CHART

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:27 | 4159174 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

The wealth effect for those in the top 10% must be amazing.  

I'm starting to feel it down here on the 20-10% deck. 

What should I do with my new wealth-effect wealth?

What are life-boats going for today?

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:08 | 4159301 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-11-15/alabama-s-jefferson-county-s... cheaper rate than when JP Morgan threw the whole county under the bus and bankrupted them. "Citigroup handles the deal" is something a lot of people in New York better get used to.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:28 | 4159177 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Wouldn't it be funny if the SPX topped at 2013 or 2014.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 17:36 | 4159209 gdgenius
gdgenius's picture

Ha. Labia.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:07 | 4159292 worldofdebt
worldofdebt's picture

See the Hilarious new video below "JIM CRAMER'S TERRIBLE STOCK PICKS--MUST SEE!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lhwplunz7-I

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 22:37 | 4159873 Australian Economist
Australian Economist's picture

I've had enough of your spam, stop it and fuck off.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:12 | 4159307 daemon
daemon's picture
" Mission (Almost) Accomplished: S&P 500 Nears Bernanke's 1,800 Year-End Target "

He can definitely be proud of himself . Nothing brings more satisfaction than a deserved success after such a hard work ...

... after all, he had to keep pressing that button all the time .

 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 18:33 | 4159372 dcohen
dcohen's picture

Let's face it, fundamentals do not work any longer, unless someone actually shoots Bernanke, Kuroda and Draghi.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:15 | 4159481 Sufiy
Sufiy's picture


FED Chronicles: Just For The Record - Janet Yellen on Asset Bubbles

http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/fed-chronicles-just-for-record-janet...

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:26 | 4159503 g'kar
g'kar's picture

I'll continue to pass on all this wealth creation. To knowingly participate in this rape of 99.99% of the population requires selling one's soul. Stupid maybe, but if you know what is happening and go along, enjoy. 

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 19:48 | 4159555 Element
Element's picture

John P. Hussman

Leash the Dogma
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc131104.htm

A Textbook Pre-Crash Bubble
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc131111.htm

 

Everyone one of the brainless idiot talking-heads working in glib MSM script-reading la-la land, who are daily pretending all is well, and all the TBTF executives and their algo-trader staff and techies and programmers, and all FED employes and affiliates, should be used to clear old minefields.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:34 | 4159734 Itch
Itch's picture

Who owns all the chips though... all they have to do is average up a tick or two and the whole thing finds support? Not saying its different this time, but what is different is the concentration of wealth among the participants. This market is owned!!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:39 | 4159746 jim249
jim249's picture

Stocks will continue to rise until all the liitle people are sucked back in, and then it will crash. More of the same. Ben must be frustrated as heck that he just can't seem to get that money on the sidelines to come back in. Fuck Bernanke!!!!!!!!!

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:56 | 4159784 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I actually think the relentless and frankly inexplicable (but for QE) rise in the S&P should be an embarassment to these Fed printers.

Fri, 11/15/2013 - 21:58 | 4159794 MrPoopypants
MrPoopypants's picture

This time is different. Previous bubbles never had this level of printing. Except Weimar and Zimbabwe and Venezuela of course...

As for the Nikkei, here's another perspective on the recent moves:

http://peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/NKYvsSPX.jpg

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!