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BofAML Warns "Don't Get Complacent"
In the near term, BofAML's Macneil Curry warns "we are growing a bit cautious/nervous, as US equity volatility is flashing a warning sign of market complacency that has often preceded a correction or a pause in trend." This 'red flag' is asterisk'd appropriately in the new normal with "to be clear, the balance of evidence is still very much US equity positive, but the near term downside risks have increased."
Via BofAML's MacNeil Curry,
We are bullish stocks, with the S&P500 targeting 1844 into year end [ZH: which sounds awfully close to an extraplotaed protjection of where the Fed's balance sheet implies year-end target].
However, in the near term, equity volatility warns of complacency and the potential for a correction lower.
Specifically, the VXV/VIX ratio (VXV is the BBG ticker for 3m SP500 Volatility) has reached levels that have often led to a market pause/correction.
While such a pullback would ultimately be corrective, Be Alert!
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While such a pullback would ultimately be corrective, Be Alert!
As if the 99% would have time to get out of the way.
Another bullshit post. As if there could be a pullback with Ben/Janet printing out their ass. Get with it Tyler.
The top chart shows multiple pullbacks, with Ben printing. Wait until it crashes with the FED printing.
At least it's not a complete echo chamber. It is good to hear what the other side of the human brain is saying, even if it is wrong.
If we're all waiting forr a Black Swan, is it still a Black Swan?
If a black swan squawks in the woods and no one is there to hear it, does it squawk at all?
River- this one won't be luck or some strange confluence of circumstances. Only what will supply the trigger isunknown.
If VIX goes up, short that shit....or you could buy bitcoins, because they ALWAYS go up!!!! Yeah, I'm still way to scared to buy any. But I will take free ones from http://freebitco.in/?r=25727 . Just don't gamble them away like my dumbass did. These people know how to take back what they give you for free!
BAC doesn't know Jack about anything.
Woah, woah, woah...BAC is up ~50% in the last year. So obviously they are a great company with great insight.
And main-lining pure, uncut QE straight from the Fed. Even a banker can make money in that position.
Oh cool, so we'll go down 1% and then rally up another 7% before the end of the year.
Correct. I recommend a cash advance on the old credit cards (you should have a credit line over 100k if you're a responsible adult) and then buy SPXL on 4x margin. You cannot lose.
The Fed put is the only chart you need to look at.
We've read this disclaimer 3-4 times over the last 2 weeks?
Be prepared MUPPETS. All your pensions are belong to us...
Hey, you've picked up Boris's accent.
So DOW 20,000
Queue the rally monkey.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmfE4KAZicY
a too big to fail warning the Fed to keep printing cuz they needs that free cash, that's all.
Having B of A manage your money is akin to asking the Boston Strangler for a neck massage...
That was funny!
S&P 666 was real valuation, if you want a reference point.
1884 is b.s. Budget deal bust followed by doubling QE a week later (this takes the heat off Yellen) equals S&P 2000 by new tear. Maybe 4000 by february. Fuck it, drilling holes..
so basically what they are saying is that if we dont go higher we may go lower.
Thanks BAC, you are truely our greatest ally...
Whatever.
Any asset gatherer will simply look at the rising range afforded by the dilution of fiat and buy the dip accordngly.
Nevermind any earthly connection.
Yawn.
/sarc
What is it about $85 billion printed dollars per month people don't understand. Of course everyone is complacent. What's there not to be complacent about.
"Is it different this time"
Well you tell me.
All the guns in America, all the controversy about gun ownership, all the mass shootings of innocent people and bankers are still walking around like nothing has happened. What the fuck.
a pause in trend
They mean we reached "a permanent high plateau?"
How can anyone look at these two
things happening simultaneously:
QE to infinity
"recovery"
and not conclude something's not real.
The last time I checked ML was
folded into B o A.
It reminds me of this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MXqb1a3Apg
Of course, they could be reminded:
for every banker bailed out there were many
who SOLD the bubble.
As to those who succumbed to the free reserves
based casino economy or believed the
r.e. recovery stuff, they may have
blown it.
One article after another includes
real estate sector pathology
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/
Most are unaware of
this simple combination:
http://pages.citebite.com/o2c0d2e1j0mlb
http://pages.citebite.com/d1i8e3n1t3rpv
For those who sold the bubble but then
bought back prematurely, lest they flipped,
which is dangerous living where one's actual
family home is involved, we may consider one
of the definitions of dork:
someone who knows what they shouldn't do
but does it anyway.
If cost of information figures into decision
making, then I'm thrilled reading Jurow is
for free.
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-mortgage-modification-program-cannot-...
http://www.keithjurow.com/what-if-housing-bulls-are-dead-wrong/
http://www.keithjurow.com/etf-alert-article/
Meanwhile the Fed's paid for removing
collateral from the banking system
http://www.opednews.com/articles/Collateral-Damage-QE3-and-by-Ellen-Brow...
and Congress has forced those who sold
the bubble to pay for bank loss sharing.
The banks got a play out of it.
http://henryckliu.com/page117.html
I wonder how many got visas by buying
toxic assets. Probably fewer than those
who bought health privatization, though
it's better than nothing and possibly
purposely Simpson Bowles-like not easy
to enroll in.
(Will people whose policies were cancelled
see their premiums rolled back upon
un-cancellations?)
If I were entering the U.S. illegally I'd
tape to my forehead: I'm here to buy
a toxic asset.
Letting the mortgagors walk non-recourse,
surrendering their 5 or 10% down, and
using a Resolution Trust Cp. vehicle
in stages, would've allowed the bubble
sellers to clear the market long ago.
For what's been spent by the Fed in
recreating the real estate inflation,
those mortgagors' kids could've
all had college scholarships, I'd guess.
Here's the precise opposite.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/young-priced-out-of-the-market-young-...
Inescapable debt for life
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/ripping-off-young-america-the-...
http://studentloanjustice.org/
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=species+that+consume+their+children
meets artificially
non-existent inventory.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/golden-real-estate-handcuffs-baby-boo...
Reminder:
It's artificial:
http://pages.citebite.com/o2c0d2e1j0mlb
http://pages.citebite.com/d1i8e3n1t3rpv
The Fed's game with the banks isn't simply
in mortgage securities but in enabling the
bankers themselves to buy collateral to flip.
But the values could just be b.s.
From this it looks it.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/california-housing-affordability-one-...
If it's good enough for the banks, it's
good enough for some investors coming from China.
http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/china-real-estate-investors-us-real-e...
Will they flip them?
The reverse merger scams originating in China that
many Americans experienced would be a parallel
cynicism. Americans last to know?
Besides inventory withheld from the market,
millions have been unable to sell lest they
pay equity to their mortgagees, even with
the exaggerated recovery.
That's cause it's been at the expense
of Main Street as well as the part
pointlessness even as to the mortgage market.
(Applies again:)
http://www.businessinsider.com/new-mortgage-modification-program-cannot-...
The macro looks unhappy.
http://www.businessinsider.com/richard-koo-qe-is-undermining-us-economic...
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/2152:why-banks-arent-lending-the-sile...
http://www.econmatters.com/2011/03/qe2-unmitigated-disaster.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-09/dealers-decline-bernanke-twist-...
The bubble sellers have had their
equity proceeds stipped for almost
6 years now, and artificial bubbles
aside, real buying power is probably
reduced from the carrying of the banks
assets, with these things
(real wealth reduction, collateral
withdrawal) possibly actually weighing on gold.
But, though I haven't met any
fortune tellers lately, I'd suspect
the market will ultimately call the
Fed's bluff on QE to infinity, and those
bubble sellers still left in tact
will get their correction finally.
The Fed's boxed in:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/dudley-says-qe-may-be-prolonged...
When rates did spike in March the mortgage market tanked.
The Fed can keep artificially inflating real estate prices.
In so doing it should predictably cause real estate to
mimic American medical care, subject to what
becomes of ObamaCare or its reinventions.
The difference between need and demand in real
estate is homelessness.
So perhaps ultimately both rates AND gold will
rise simultaneously?
And the inflation will then flow out
from mortgages, stocks and the Fed's
drunken head.
How can anyone look at these two
things happening simultaneously:
QE to infinity
"recovery"
and not conclude something's not real.
Here's funny. Squaring several thousand fiats. I try to make new trade and only break even? WTF