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Bitcoin Soars Above $600: Rises 20% In One Day Ahead Of Senate Hearing

Tyler Durden's picture




 

While the relentless multiple expansion (if not so much earnings growth and certainly not revenue contraction) looks set to push all three main stock indices over the key psychological levels of 16000, 1800 and 4000, with the all time bubble high on the Nasdaq increasingly looking like the next big target, the stock market mania has nothing on Bitcoin, which only yesterday crossed $500 for the first time ever, and as of this morning is already 20% higher, having just crossed $600 minutes ago. Which means that anything prices in Bitcoin has entered bear market in just the past day. How high BTC goes, is nobody's guess (Raoul Pal had a truly stunning price target): once the buying frenzy kicks in, step aside, especially since China is increasingly looking like it may be jumping on board the latest mania.

So is there any catalyst that has driven a more than  100% increase in the USD value of the currency in November alone? As previously noted, one event that may be promoting much broader acceptance in China is that the currency is now accepted for payment for real estate:

Bitcoin acceptance in China has now extended into real estate with a residential developer in Zhangjiang Hi-Tech park in Shanghai finding a new way to promote sales through the acceptance of Bitcoin virtual currency.

 

Shanda Group, one of the large IT giants in China, through its real estate development arm, opened sales of its first real estate investment project on October 25th, 2013. 300 apartments in the soon to be built buildings ranging from 42-81sqm were available for sale and sold out in a few minutes as demand far outstripped supply.

 

As part of the promotion, Shanda accepted Bitcoins for payment. Although the exchange rate was ‘fixed’ at 1,000 Chinese Yuan (CNY) to one Bitcoin and the developer reserved the right to adjust the rate, the deal represents one of the first times that Bitcoin could be used for such a large scale 'public' purchase. The exchange rate was about 1,200 CNY : 1 Bitcoin on BTCChina that day, so the developer was obviously trying to hedge a bit in case Bitcoin fell through, but considering the rate is rapidly reaching nearly 2,000 CNY : 1 Bitcoin, it would have been a great deal for the developer – Bitcoin is one of the few investments in China that has been increasing faster than real estate in 2013.

The rate now is much higher. However, as reported over a week ago, that may change depending on what comes out of the Senatorial hearing on Bitcoin sheculed for later today:

The Department of Justice and Securities and Exchange Commission are telling a U.S. Senate committee that Bitcoins are legitimate financial instruments, boosting prospects for wider acceptance of the virtual currency.

 

Representatives from the agencies told the U.S. Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs ahead of a hearing today that the digital money offers benefits and carries risks, like any other online-payment system, according to letters they released before the meeting.

 

The committee scheduled the hearing “to explore potential promises and risks related to virtual currency for the federal government and society at large” after the Silk Road Hidden Website was shut down in October. The closing of the marketplace, where people could obtain drugs, guns and other illicit goods using Bitcoins, is helping fuel a rally in the virtual currency as speculators bet that the digital money will gain more mainstream acceptance.

 

“The FBI’s approach to virtual currencies is guided by a recognition that online payment systems, both centralized and decentralized, offer legitimate financial services,” Peter Kadzik, principal deputy assistant attorney general, wrote in a letter yesterday. “Like any financial service, virtual currency system of either type can be exploited by malicious actors, but centralized and decentralized online payment systems can vary significantly in the types and degrees of illicit financial risk they pose.”

Tune in at 3pm when we will carry the Bitcoin hearing live.

 

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Mon, 11/18/2013 - 08:59 | 4164569 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

What could possibly go wrong?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:00 | 4164570 Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

A lot. But for the time being:


1 ounce of gold = 2.3 bitcoins

1 ounce of silver = .037 bitcoins

Ratios converging, quickly. It will really hinge on the Senate Hearing today.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:01 | 4164576 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

How much is that in tulips?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:02 | 4164580 Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

Time will tell... I think Bitcoin is basically playing out the PM tale, which is pretty much dead in the water given the COMEX/LBMA system.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:09 | 4164592 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Without the COMEX/LBMA.....gold is nothing but an element on the periodic chart.

 

I've been told it's pretty hard to find.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:09 | 4164598 Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

I don't have a better system in mind, but as we all know, execution price on these efficient markets seems to be so passé.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:13 | 4164609 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Efficient markets, in the eyes of the statists, require a huge artificial entity, propping up prices.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:23 | 4164658 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Makes perfect sense. I'd much rather have a digital coin on my computer than 30 ounces of silver in my safe. I now think TPTB have a firm hold on Bitcoin.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:31 | 4164688 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Only thing holding back bitcoin from exploding already is it is a freaking pain in the ass to buy them unless you already have established accounts with the popular exchanges, and even then the lag time in transaction actually showing up in your account is glacial.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:09 | 4164804 CH1
CH1's picture

localbitcoins.com

Meet a guy in Starbucks, takes ten minutes.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:13 | 4164818 Stackers
Stackers's picture

I rest my case.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:37 | 4164935 shitco.in
shitco.in's picture

dealco.in

localbitcoins competitor that just opened to the public a day or two ago

you can buy shares in dealcoin here

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/order.php?symbol=DEALCO

disclosure: we are long dealcoin

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:39 | 4164951 Sofa King Confused
Sofa King Confused's picture

Just imagine what would happen to gold and silver if its price was not controlled.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:50 | 4164990 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

The article called bitcoin what it is "The latest mania" and as I posted before, who knows that it is not TPTB behind the whole thing to take the pressure off the PM's.

Is there a way to short BTC?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:53 | 4165005 fonestar
fonestar's picture

"Is there a way to short BTC?"

 

Yes, just stay in fiat (and lose your shirt).  But for leverage, keep your fiat in a TBTF institution.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:17 | 4165116 JimRogers
JimRogers's picture

COUNTDOWN TO ZH BITCOIN DONATION ADDRESS

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:46 | 4165225 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

 guns and other illicit goods

Since when is an item that is perfectly legal to own considered illicit? Who wrote this damn piece anyway, and what is their infatuation with questioning bitcoin and the Second Amendment? Their writing betrays which side they are coming from...

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:57 | 4165519 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bitcoin now at $634 USD.

Rational exuberance.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 13:08 | 4165569 Haole
Haole's picture

...and panic buying?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:51 | 4165239 StillSilence
StillSilence's picture

Yes, buy physical PM and wait.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:36 | 4165417 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bitcoin will continue to vastly outperform PMs in dollar terms until the crack-up boom.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:33 | 4165404 fonestar
fonestar's picture

....and btw trying to short the world's strongest currency using FRN?  Are you serious?  Is there something equivalent to a monetary Darwin award I can present you?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:37 | 4164934 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Wake up in the alley in a pool of what you hope is your own filth.

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:31 | 4165169 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Bitcoin is making some anarchists and libertarians very happy people.

I'm guessing Bitcoin is making some fake libertarians feel pretty uneasy right about now.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:25 | 4165369 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Fonestar.

I hear a lot of chatter. Simple question for newbie: 

I have USD in a country with capital contols. Can I buy BTC's there and then cash out in HK in HK dollars?

What are the steps?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:31 | 4165396 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Sign up on localbitcoins.com.

You should be able to convert into HK Dollars no problem.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:50 | 4164993 fonestar
fonestar's picture

So who wants to bet that the average Bitcoin is going to wind up being worth more than say, a PCGS slabbed 1889 Carson City Dollar, say MS-60?

Bitcoins have properties that make them by far the most valuable coins on Earth.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:32 | 4165174 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Uh, talking your book much, fonestar?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:29 | 4165387 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Why do I need a book?  You're going to continue losing agasinst the strongest currency on Earth.  Seems pretty simple to me.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:55 | 4165251 funthea
funthea's picture

EMP, Natural or otherwise; Bitcoin = 0

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:13 | 4165323 Matt
Matt's picture

That EMP would have to be strong enough to wipe every wallet.dat file off the face of the planet, and any underground ones, too. The result of such an EMP would inevitably be the catastrophic failure of several nuclear reactors and spent fuel ponds, leading to the death of all life on Earth. In which case, I'd be ok with losing a bit of currency.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:44 | 4165465 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

EMP? Oh right, let me fill in the fields you appeared to have "missed".

 

Electricity = 0

Cars = 0

Heating = 0

Logistics = 0

Refridgeration = 0

Human Life = 0.001x present level

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:59 | 4165536 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

My wood stove?  Chain saw???  Not my GoKart too.  NOoooooooooo!!!!!!!!

 

I think the world reached it's first billion around 1900.  where'd you get the .001 from?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 13:57 | 4165768 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

In 1900, there was some level of self-sufficiency.

Today, EVERYTHING relies on automatics. How will the farmer produce, when all his motorized vehicles have been EMP'ed?

And how will the urban population get to any food source (but soylent green) whatsoever?

Regardless, if the constant is .001, .01, or whatever hardly matters. If he gets to go "OMG EMP" hyperbole, so do I.

Tue, 11/19/2013 - 01:37 | 4168605 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

You and I must be seeing different farm tractors.  And many people around here still plough with horses.  No kidding.  You urbanites might starve.  Not us.

Tue, 11/19/2013 - 01:37 | 4168606 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

plow

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:48 | 4164984 BitStorm
BitStorm's picture

Psst. You can have both. You don't have to choose.
I have some Bitcoins. Can I officially be "TPTB"?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:03 | 4164582 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

You mean there's no London Fix? 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:06 | 4164589 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Time to set up the Langley Fix.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:38 | 4164940 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Maybe NSA is using bitcoins to finance their operations?

When Paypal accepts bitcoins, you know they've become mainstream.

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:07 | 4164593 CPL
CPL's picture

Dunno, everyone keeps making the mistake that they are pricing things in dollars which is the same as trying to assume that old tally sticks are convertible.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:05 | 4164793 unununium
unununium's picture

+600

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:27 | 4164877 tallystick
tallystick's picture

Do not try to convert us, we belong in a museum.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:51 | 4164997 Matt
Matt's picture

I don't understand why everyone uses Mt Gox for demonstrating prices, it is a one-way trap, very difficult to get USD out. A better site for prices and volumes is http://btckan.com/price which shows the three biggest "established" exchanges in Jaqpan, UK, and Czech Republic, along with several Chinese exchanges.

The story I see there, based on a $140 spread between China and Europe, is that:

A) heavy Chinese speculation

and/or:

B) People using Bitcoin as a means of getting Yuan out into USD, Euros and Pounds. Buy in China, sell at up to 20% loss (compared to "official" exchange rates) in UK (BitStamp) or Czech Republic (BTC-E)

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:17 | 4165335 seek
seek's picture

I use this: https://bitcoinaverage.com/#USD|nogox

Volume-weighted exchange prices without mtgox in the results. This also smooths out some of the very short term volatility, since it's not a single exchange price like mtgox is.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:09 | 4165085 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Pretty hard to convince a group that thinks anything they cannot touch is "fake" (pretty much nothing would exist).  If you enjoy bragging about your stupidity, never update anything on your computer and do your online banking with IE5.  After all, it's nothing "real" anyway.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:27 | 4165378 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I showed you the terms and conditions buying the physical Bitcoins. It resembled swiss cheese and thats being nice about it.

That makes some people uneasy. You don't care, and see no risk. We get it. Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:39 | 4165429 fonestar
fonestar's picture

I've never recommended the physical Bitcoins.  It defeats the purpose and they're just glorified, overpriced trinkets anyway.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:15 | 4164613 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

If YOU can take it as well as dish it out, why don't you go to http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates/

And plot the rates of XAU vs. BTX (gold vs bitcoin).  It'll look just like USD vs. XAU (dollar vs gold).

Using YOUR logic and selective sampling of data points, you'd better stick with fiat USDs and pass on gold, the way you're passing on BTC.  /sarc.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:15 | 4164616 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I do not have a price in tulips, but I'm pretty sure its worth 1 Bitcoin = 3 shares of South Sea Company

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:22 | 4164654 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

And 3 South Sea Comany shares are worth 10 PETS.COM SHARES!!

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:52 | 4164748 CH1
CH1's picture

Desperately hoping that you won't be the guy who missed it, huh?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:39 | 4164945 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

You heard it here guys. Buy in now before it's too late! To the moooooooon!

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:54 | 4165015 Matt
Matt's picture

I'm up 30,000% on the coins I mined in 2011. Been two or three crashes since, no big deal.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:12 | 4165321 lickspitler
lickspitler's picture

xenofrog grab some more gold it's cheaper.......again. Ideological investing is fun to watch.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:52 | 4165000 BitStorm
BitStorm's picture

Or Google shares, or Apple shares, or Netflix shares. Come on now, don't feel you have to cherry-pick...

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:18 | 4164633 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

what colour?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:27 | 4164679 Balvan
Balvan's picture

Year from now, ounce of gold will not be 1 bitcoin, but 1 satoshi.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:40 | 4164712 Croesus
Croesus's picture

@ Balvan: 

I'll make a bet with you: 

Contact me: 

croesuszh AT hushmail DOT  C O M 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:09 | 4164803 unununium
unununium's picture

No. Long term BTC will take its place alongside gold and silver as universal hard money and BTCAU will behave similarly to AGAU.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:00 | 4165045 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

1 bitcoin = 1.6180339887

Since their demise, tulips always trade in the gold ratio.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:27 | 4165154 Bangin7GramRocks
Bangin7GramRocks's picture

Well it just passed the 1990 value of a 1989 Bill Ripken error baseball card. Sky is the limit from here! Can you say pump and dump.....

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:52 | 4165498 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Anyone who would "dump" BTC for FRN (or even "take profits") is a mental reject.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:51 | 4164743 CH1
CH1's picture

It will really hinge on the Senate Hearing today.

The Senate can suck its own dick. Bitcoiners see them as abominable old tyrants, and increasingly irrelevant.

Furthermore, Bitcoin is not a US phenomena.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:07 | 4164799 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

no... it's also very hot in China where  they bet on about everything... :)

 

ps: There's no such thing as "bitcoiners" :)

unless you include everybody who fell down the stairs head first in your club :)

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:08 | 4164800 tvdog
tvdog's picture

Right. The most the U.S. can do is prohibit the exchange of dollars for bitcoins. Officially. There will still be ways to buy bitcoin on the black market even if they do that, however.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:20 | 4165129 pipes
pipes's picture

They can't even BEGIN to stop the exchange of FRNs for BTC. They are irrelevant, impotent dinosaurs.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:43 | 4164962 fonestar
fonestar's picture

"Ratios converging, quickly. It will really hinge on the Senate Hearing today."

 

Um, no.  It's a global currency and it doesn't care what your totally worthless "senate" does (or does not).

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:00 | 4165047 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Hey now, my Senator (Dickhead Turbin) is really super duper important and even told me I could keep my plan if I liked it.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:37 | 4165192 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Something you seem to forget, fonestar, is that the U.S. is run like a criminal organization, and like the Mafia they play dirty. You considering the U.S. Senate "worthless" is like calling a crime syndicate boss a "dickhead". Makes you feel good, but if you challenge their rackets enough they will come get you and that Euro passport ain't gonna stop them.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:47 | 4165478 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Well then, they're going to be busy boys and girls playing whack-a-mole around the globe.

You can't stop an idea whose time has come.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:00 | 4164573 VD
VD's picture

if the DOW is double its fundamentals value on QE, why can't BTC reflect some semblance of reality?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:43 | 4164715 InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

There is no doubt that bitcoin is manipulated, someone is clearly bidding the price up... who would buy on the vertical drop from 600 to 550 and bid the price up to 600 again? this does not make any sense at all.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:15 | 4164815 unununium
unununium's picture

BTC market cap is now only $6B+. Lots of people and organizations buying TFD as well as TFATH.

"Take it and bid it" --Oliver Stone

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:33 | 4164860 InspectorBird
InspectorBird's picture

They also say "dont catch the falling knife"... now look at the graph and say again that this was "normal market activity". Someone is clearly bidding the price up, i think to suck in more suckers. It started to drop and someone intervened immidiately.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:12 | 4165098 Matt
Matt's picture

You are only looking at one exchange; there are many exchanges, plus person-to-person exchanges. You can also transfer bitcoins with no record of it by simply selling someone a wallet.

The price in China is about $50 higher than Mt Gox in Japan ( the site used above, and commonly in articles). The volume in China is at least four times the volume on Mt Gox.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:41 | 4165205 dryam
dryam's picture

Yep, seems like it could be bid up pretty easily by those wanting to profit.

Or, if I was an agency that was fearful of the bit coin concept, I'd bid it up very rapidly & create as big of a mania as possible. Then, I'd crush the living hell out of it and break as many backs as possible to send the message to others that could very easily happen to them too. The U.S. Gov. is the biggest form of the mafia in the history of the world. I know it makes everyone feel good that bit coin could theoretically slay the biggest bully in the history of the world. Good luck to everyone buying bit coins. You are going to need it.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:46 | 4164727 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

looks totally sustainable

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:34 | 4165178 TheHound73
TheHound73's picture

...until market saturation, then it will level out some.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:54 | 4165017 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

"What could possibly go wrong?"

Uh, this - http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-11-15/internet-now-weaponized-and-you-are-target

"Which means the rest of us — and especially any company or individual whose operations are economically or politically significant — are now targets. All cleartext traffic is not just information being sent from sender to receiver, but is a possible attack vector."

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:34 | 4165179 rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

I'm wondering if this isn't a ruse to further regulate the internet. If the senate is holding hearings about BTC then nothing good can come of it.

"We must pass this bill to protect the US dollar. It is a national security issue. Legal Tender laws must be applied to all digital currency. As such we are going to give the NSA the power to peruse these dark hallways where digital currencies exist and extinguish them before they imperil the dollar." - fictional but possible quote by Elizabeth Warren

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:36 | 4165188 kralizec
kralizec's picture

Kiss of death?  Smell a rat?

"The Department of Justice and Securities and Exchange Commission are telling a U.S. Senate committee that Bitcoins are legitimate financial instruments, boosting prospects for wider acceptance of the virtual currency."

I mean if the O'Bongo Regime thinks bitcoin is cool...look the fuck out!!!

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 08:59 | 4164572 VD
VD's picture

if gold and silver weren't manipulated by JPM, GS = THE FED et al. CB's, then we'd have same movements in those as well.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:11 | 4164601 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

How does anyone know the price isn't being manipulated in btc?  I know I know, INCONCEIVABLE.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:14 | 4164610 VD
VD's picture

if you believe more at appreciate technology of BTC, then you know it can only be 'manipulated' strictly by holders of said currency; which is why it is, in theory, the best fuck you to gov/Fed/TBTF banks. having typed that, we also may infer that the NSA is busy working on cracking the BTC code.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:23 | 4164656 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Exactly. NSA or better, mind you.  Congress might be moving in to cull the herd as it is driven euphoric by high dollar prices.  I don't pretend to know the inner workings of btc, nor do label my lack of such pretense as "ignorance".  I do know that technology is copyable or can be backwards engineered to fill in the blanks, with new and stronger innovations baked in.  

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:32 | 4164674 VD
VD's picture

check out the encryption behind BTC. the interesting thing is that the estimated timeframes for cracking said encryption based on CPUs and other such parameters is in flux, meaning as tech constantly improves (Moore's Law), the original timeframes become less reliable. for eg if NSA has some newer tech and dedicates much computational hp to cracking BTC, then who knows how long it'll be before it bites the dust. can the NSA legally do that? the NSA is totally illegal [unconstitutional] entity so yes they can.

 

also, while many here cite the tulip mania they overlook a more recent bubble that just blew: RED BORDEAUX WINE. that oenophile bubble was strictly fueled by Chinese nouveau riche money and it went parabolic into 2011 and prices plummeted that same year. and very same Chinese are fueling BTC now. a decent doc about said wine bubble: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2419284/

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:35 | 4164694 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

(theoretical) minimum traversal to reverse 1 SHA-256 hash: 2^128

Current bitcoing hashing power: 2^52/sec

Time for one SHA-256 hash to be reversed, at current hashing power: 2^(128-52) = 2^76

Time in years: 2^76 / (60*60*24*365) = 2,395,924,141,486,375.

 

And that's for one hash. I think we'll be ok for the time being.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:50 | 4164741 VD
VD's picture

i truly hope so...

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:55 | 4164758 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

Current hashing power of what?  An iphone, a computer, 1,000 processors networked together?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:00 | 4164783 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Total (ie, global) hashing power of all machines currently in use.

https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:03 | 4164789 Hobbleknee
Hobbleknee's picture

thanks

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:20 | 4164838 unununium
unununium's picture

Ponder for a moment -- the MONEY being spent on buying and running compute power to achieve that hash rate.

Then remember - said money does NOT affect the exchange rate. They are just fighting for future block rewards and transaction fees, to be paid in bitcoin.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:22 | 4164849 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

When TPTB come after bitcoin, they won't go after the passwords. They will go after the people who use bitcoin, aka Dread Pirate Roberts. Sure, bitcoin can survive in the fringes in a black market-type situation but any bitcoiner who grows too tall is going to get sheared.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:18 | 4165119 Matt
Matt's picture

Any AMERICAN Bitcoiner. FTFY. The rest of humanity is moving on without those guys. The worst thing that could happen, is that the Winklevoss ETF comes out, allowing manipulation through leverage and derivatives, in my opinion.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:21 | 4164824 daemon
daemon's picture

" having typed that, we also may infer that the NSA is busy working on cracking the BTC code. "

That's quite probable. 

Another strategy, for the governement/bankers, could be to launch a similar system with some modifications that would allow them to get some easy money, while retaining the general ideas .

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:22 | 4164851 unununium
unununium's picture

Sounds like that "information superhighway" we've all been waiting for.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:13 | 4164602 ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

doop

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:19 | 4164640 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Coulda, woulda, shoulda...  In case you parents, teachers, minister, priest, rabbi, shaman, boss or Tylers didn't tell you:

EVERYTHING of personal or economic value can and IS being manipulated.  Even your golden calf.

Get over it.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:29 | 4164673 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I suspect bitcoin will be part of the process of the bankers losing control of PM and commodity pricing.  It is the canary in the currency mine.  It is the same people buying bitcoin and gold and silver.  They are gaining purchasing power exponentially.  What are they going to do when a few people with a 10 million dollar bitcoin decides they want some gold?  There is a complete lack of confidence in government public paper.  And it will all come apart one way or the other.  The free market will find a way.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:54 | 4164757 CH1
CH1's picture

Wow, an actual thoughful post!

Thanks!

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:25 | 4164862 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Except why would anyone exchange real, physical gold and silver for a bunch of 0's and 1's stored on a computer. I sure as hell wouldn't. The only way I'm selling my PM is for living expenses, and until the grocery store takes bitcoin there is no reason to exchange gold for bitcoin.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:39 | 4164946 TheHound73
TheHound73's picture

Plenty of gold dealers accept Bitcoin, ask them why they do it... If you live in Europe, a major grocery delivery co-op has just started accepting bitcoin...

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:00 | 4165049 fonestar
fonestar's picture

And so it will be amusing when "PM only" crowd needs to convert metal into Bitcoin in order to send money.

It may involve a process and chain of trust.  Kind of like using fiat, to buy a money-order to transfer funds to a bullion dealer.  And then trust that every postal worker involved is not going to steal the package.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:43 | 4164960 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

When a few people with ten million dollar bitcoin decide to convert their coins into something else, they will face what current holders face, an inability to liquidate and "cash out".

 

Money only flows into a ponzi, it is incredibly difficult to get it out.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:06 | 4165070 Saro
Saro's picture

Liquidity in USD is only a problem if you want USD, and dumping USD into your bank account from a known BTC exchange is just an invitation for a tax audit by the IRS. 

You get better a bang for your buck (i.e. no taxes) if you buy things in bitcoins directly.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:01 | 4164574 ghostzapper
ghostzapper's picture

picked up a little a while ago and wanted to see more legitimacy and credibility.  this chart I must say looks extremely positive.  will it even pull back to its 20 DMA at 341ish (which of course is rising sharply)?  i'll be waiting.

 

go ahead make fun of me.  i don't give a shit.  i'm very intrigued and interested.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:02 | 4164577 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

I guess late to the party is better than never ;-)

The Bitcoin Channel

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:03 | 4164583 orkneylad
orkneylad's picture

I thought late adopters normally get ripped a new one?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:57 | 4165029 fonestar
fonestar's picture

"I thought late adopters normally get ripped a new one?"

 

Voluntary currency also includes voluntary sex change.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:01 | 4164578 orkneylad
orkneylad's picture

Go Tulips!

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:03 | 4164581 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Bitcoin will turn out to be a zero sum game with most people getting zeroes.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:13 | 4164606 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Unlike the Dollar?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:18 | 4164630 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

You might not have noticed, but shit comes in different colours.

The dollar is just another loss making vehicle.

I should point out that I am not against Bitcoin to the extent that people are willing participants and don't cry foul if it collapses and start seeking compensation from the authorities. In my mind however Bitcoin suffers from a lack of transparency and lacks some central authority that is accountable. In other words it is acting like the FED in many ways at the moment.

I could be wrong of course but time will tell and it may be very telling either way.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:22 | 4164655 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

"lacks some central authority" - yeah, i don't think you get the point in regards to bitcoin.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:53 | 4164751 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

Serious questions. Why does the fed feel it necessary to smash gold and silver, but not bitcoin?  What tangible item can I buy with bitcoin.  None of the box stores where I live seam to accept it.  Serious questions.

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:59 | 4164778 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Every day, more merchants sign up to bitcoin. Give it time.

And how would the be able to smash bitcoin, unless they had a substantial position? You can't sell BTC short unless you own them in the first place.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:43 | 4164965 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

OK.  But can't a new entity merely create infinite competitors to Bitcoin (using all the same encryption etc.).  Or does bitcoin have some kind of monopoly on credibility? Again, serious question.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:53 | 4165004 TheHound73
TheHound73's picture

There are many crypto-currencies that have sprouted up based on Bitcoin's open source code. Bitcoin is the leader in terms of market cap, "name recognition", and users.  It is a free-for-all there and it is conceivable that another currency could take the lead but they are far behind at this point.  The thing to watch are the Miners.  If I see them move very much of their hashing power (which is protecting the Bitcoin network) to another currency... Well that's something to take notice of...  It would mean miners would rather use their scarce resource (computing power) towards acquiring a different currency then Bitcoin.

 

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:49 | 4165233 snr-moment
Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:57 | 4165263 TheHound73
TheHound73's picture

Sure, that unit represents 0.000119 of the network. Mining Bitcoin with it in a pool you should earn some fraction of a coin per day.  Hopefully enough to eventually pay off your investment plus some profit.  If you see another currency that you can use your card for and make more money, wouldn't you switch?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:28 | 4165381 seek
seek's picture

Trust me, as a Butterfly labs customer, the fact that it's on their web site doesn't mean you can actually obtain one, even if you wait a year.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:45 | 4164973 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

They already have a substantial position.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:59 | 4165042 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

[citation needed]

If you refer to the position they captured off of DPR, then the evidence suggests that has been sold off already.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:08 | 4165080 pipes
pipes's picture

Bitcoin has only just past the point of adoption by the "visionaries/innovators", not even at the "early adopter" stage yet.

See DIFFUSION  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_(business)

NO new technology/industry/concept has the support structure (infrastructure) to satisfy the questions, needs, or concerns of the naysaying (by definition, IGNORANT) folks at the "late adopter" and "laggard" end of the model.

 

Buy your spouse a Bitcoin for Christmas. In short order they will think you a genius.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:55 | 4165018 pipes
pipes's picture

trained from birth to love our shackles

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:16 | 4165334 PolishErick
PolishErick's picture

the lack of central authority in the form of greedy humanz is the good thing about BitCoin... the central authority is the algorithm and the p2p network- methinks (I too am not an expert in the inner workings)

 

but what we see now is a massive pumpndump

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:44 | 4164968 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

1. Someone says something negative about Bitcoin

2. Accuse that person of supporting the Dollar.

3. Rinse, repeat.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:35 | 4164697 balanced
balanced's picture

Keep telling yourself that buddy. And keep ignoring the fact that other non-PM/dollar markets such as diamonds and fine art are also going through the roof. PMs will likely catch up eventually, but not until THE end of the current system. If you can want to wait until that scenario unfolds to realize any profit, then put everything into PMs, otherwise diversify. In the mean time, I'll continue to pull multiples out of Bitcoin.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:04 | 4164585 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Central Bankers getting jealous that their gold has been held back.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:06 | 4164588 jubber
jubber's picture

yep Gold and Silver getting smashed yet again

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:11 | 4164599 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

That's because things are going so well.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:17 | 4164621 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

it's the only important thing for them to supress to keep the game floating.

 

And if a game token sounds more interesting to people than gold and silver, the better for them.

LINDEN DOLLARS RULE!! WHOEHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I'LL BUY THAT MAGIC SWORD AND THAT HORSE FOR MY KNIGHT WITH IT!!

 

99% will get severly burned and end up with nothing.

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:29 | 4164683 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, I don't get people's aversion to a currency, which entirely cuts out the middle man (aka 'banks'), and when used right, can be entirely anonymous.

I can buy stuff straight out of China right away, don't need to pay £50 for the transfer, don't run the risk of the money "disappearing" somewhere along the line (which has happened plenty of times in regards to typical bank transfers, and which doesn't show up you've asked the bank in person where your F^&*ing money is), don't need to fear alerting the supposed authorities in regards to "suspicious transactions" or PayPal shutting your access to the money for the same reason...

No, I can't hold it in my hand, but so what? I've got lots of MP3's, computer games, company account spread sheets etc which I can't hold in my hand either.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:40 | 4164707 digitalhermit
digitalhermit's picture

 

 

Buying Bitcoin is like buying stock in pre-IPO Visa or Western Union.

http://coinometrics.com/bitcoin/btix

Sure Gold and Silver have their uses but paying remittances or buying products internationally is not one of them. Bitcoin fills this gap quite nicely.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:31 | 4164897 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Wow, you need to read a little history. Western Union was founded in part by Ezra Cornell as a consolidation of the nascent telegraph/communications industry in the U.S. I.E. they made money by building something real that people could use to increase their productivity. Bitcoin represents nothing but people trying to convince other people to pay more for their bitcoin than they paid.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:04 | 4165065 digitalhermit
digitalhermit's picture

Of course I was speaking figuratively with regard to Western Union but apparently that's too much of a stretch for you. It's obvious to all that Bitcoin is in a speculative bubble right now but I think you are mistaken that it has no value beyond that.

Bitcoin is just software built for a specific purpose and it fulfills that purpose splendidly. If companies like IBM, Microsoft, Apple and Google teach us one thing it is that fit-for-use software has tremendous market value and is quite "real" in its own right.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:00 | 4165048 BitStorm
BitStorm's picture

"I'LL BUY THAT MAGIC SWORD AND THAT HORSE FOR MY KNIGHT WITH IT!!"

If "Magic Sword" is code word for gold and "Horse" is a code word for silver, then yes.

This knight's getting it at 92% discount rates...

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:09 | 4164590 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Just so much QE money it's pouring into everything. 

Any IPO is rushed into by investors. Make an IPO with a catchy name and make billions. 

Soon to make the DOT Com timeframe look mild.

Excellent time for introduction of shell companies that loose money. It's a setup that make 1,000s of Madoff's.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:06 | 4164591 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

"1 ounce of gold = 2.3 bitcoins"

I think I will frame that one as a reminder of how much intellectual progress man has made over the last 5000 years. LOL.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:12 | 4164605 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Great point. 

We are truly living in bizarro world.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:01 | 4164661 TheHound73
TheHound73's picture

What if I told you.. the ratio might flip soon...

And the ratio is currently 1:2

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:37 | 4164699 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

There was also a time when SALT was worth as much as gold (Roman era), and ALUMINUM was worth more than gold (1800s).

Nothing against gold as a hedge (and I have more than is prudent), but let's cut the bullshit and stop the golden circle-jerk:  Life would be a fuck of a lot worse w/o Salt or Aluminum.  We'd still be hunters/gatherers.

Perspective, my friend, perspective.  And balance.

BTC Moral: Stop the one-trick pony of "bet the farm" or "all in" gambler/loser mentality.  DIVERSIFY, bitchez!  Diversify.  Had you and I done so much earlier (by buying a few hundred or thousand BTC when they were cheap), we'd be laughing our asses off on a yacht.  And you fucking know it. 

As it is, there are damn few of us who are honest enough to admit that all we have is our Schadenfreude in misery of "coulda, woulda, shoulda".  Oh, plus we got our depressed gold+silver -- while hoping, hoping, hoping for the golden one-trick pony to 'deliver'.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 10:35 | 4164919 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I get your point, but it's hyperbole to say that we'd be hunter-gatherers without aluminum. Iron and steel were acceptable alternatives. 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 11:02 | 4165061 BitStorm
BitStorm's picture

Kirk speaks the truth. I don't understand how people can focus in on one or two stores of value and utterly bash anything else.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:05 | 4165286 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

Absolutely diversify.  In things that have intrinsic value.  Silver, best electrical conductor on earth.  Copper, close second, much more available.  Salt.  Why not?  Need storage space. Blanton's?  No explanation needed.

Bitcoin?  Beanie Babies? Fiat?  Good luck!

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 12:09 | 4165310 snr-moment
snr-moment's picture

An with regards to salt, can it possibly get any cheaper than right now?  Human beings still need it to live, as much as ever.  Lots of energy needed to dehydrate or mine it, and transport it.

 

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 15:07 | 4166130 PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

Actually gold is the best electrical conductor on earth, but who the hell can afford to wire their house with gold 12 gauge wiring?

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 16:42 | 4166529 Amagnonx
Amagnonx's picture

Silver is a better electrical conductor than gold.

 

Wiki:Silver is the best conductor of heat and electricity of any metal on the periodic table. Silver also has the lowestcontact resistance of any metal.

Wiki:The silver ion (Ag+) is bioactive and in sufficientconcentration readily kills bacteria in vitro. Silver and silver nanoparticles are used as an antimicrobial in a variety of industrial, healthcare and domestic applications.[34]

 

Silver is the god of metals.

 

PS: The reason gold is used on some contacts and wiring is because gold is softer, and has zero oxidation - meaning contacts are always perfectly clean.

Mon, 11/18/2013 - 09:08 | 4164595 I_Am_
I_Am_'s picture

Fuck to think I bought just 1 BULB at.... 

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