The October 2012 Pre-Election Jobs Report Was Faked

Tyler Durden's picture

On Friday October 5, 2012, the BLS released what was arguably the most important report of Obama's first term: the final jobs number, and unemployment rate before the November 2012 presidential election. As so many predicted, it "plunged" from 8.1% to 7.8% allowing the president to conduct countless teleprompted speeches praising the success of his economic recovery. It also served as the basis for the infamous Jack Welch tweet: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers" and prompted the pro-Obama media to quickly brand all those who questioned it as conspiracy theorists. The Atlantic did perhaps the most exemplary job in its task to discredit the "random anonymous cranks" who challenged the bullshit spewed by the administration's manipulative economic data reporting apparatus. From The Atlantic's Unemployment Plummets To 7.8%.

The unemployment rate plunged to 7.8 percent in September, its lowest level since Barack Obama took office in 2009. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made big revisions to data from previous months, showing huge increases in the number of jobs being created over the last three months. Total employment from the "household survey" also showed an increase of 873,000 jobs last month, the biggest one-month jump since June of 1983.


Not only has the unemployment rate gone down, but the report also undercut one of the key criticisms of previous drops in the number—that it was because the "participation rate" went down. That rate has actually gone back up, which means unemployment is down because people are actually getting work, not because they've stopped looking. Public sector jobs also went up, as did the average number of hours worked per week.


This report looks so good for President Obama that conspiracy theorists are already alleging that the fix is in. And not just random anonymous cranks, but supposedly serious business people, like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch.



He wasn't alone:



Rick Santelli of CNBC, noting that the rate has dropped below the magical number of 8 percent, said,  "You can let America decide how they got there." When one side is convinced that something smells rotten, you know it's good news for the other guy.


As we noted his comment at the time...


"the current trend of these [jobs] numbers is so different from the current trend of any other numbers. If you were looking for conspiracies (and I'm not), you only need to change a certain number."



Of course, who cares if the "conspiracy theories" were substantiated by actual data. Such as the following from the same day:

An Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration?


Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:

  • Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
  • Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*


Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?

Or this also from the same day:

Reason For Today's Unemployment Rate Plunge: Part-Time Jobs For Economic Reasons Surge Most Since QE1 Announcement


We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by 582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.



So putting it all together, what does this mean for the true state of the US economy? Recall back in September one of our Charts of the Day was the number of Unemployed and Underemployed for the month of August, which was 25.8 million. Readers may be surprised to learn that when putting it all together, in September this number increased to 26.2 million.


Or this also from the same day:

The Strangest Number In Today's Jobs Number


While we already presented the explanation for the dramatic drop in today's unemployment report (almost entirely driven by the surge in part-time jobs for economic reasons, hardly a thing to be proud of as more and more full time jobs, especially those on Wall Street, are a thing of the past, while the transition to a part-time worker society has been documented extensively in the past here), there is another number that is by far the most perplexing in today's NFP dataset: that showing the employment of workers in the 20-24 year age category (both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted). See if you can spot the outlier in the chart below.



And many more other such reports posted on this site on the same day, alleging fabrication which as it turns out courtesy of the just released stunning disclosure by the Post, were absolutely spot on since the number was, you guessed it, manipulated.

The Post's John Crudele reveals the details on a data manipulation scandal, which we exposed back in October 2012, but this time with the actual "dirty details" that has the potential to be so big, Obama will need to start another YouTube-fabricated, false flag war just to distract from this latest scandal.

From The Post's "Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report"

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.


The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.


And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.


Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.


And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.


“He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.


The Census employee caught faking the results is Julius Buckmon, according to confidential Census documents obtained by The Post. Buckmon told me in an interview this past weekend that he was told to make up information by higher-ups at Census.


Ironically, it was Labor’s demanding standards that left the door open to manipulation.


Labor requires Census to achieve a 90 percent success rate on its interviews — meaning it needed to reach 9 out of 10 households targeted and report back on their jobs status.


Census currently has six regions from which surveys are conducted. The New York and Philadelphia regions, I’m told, had been coming up short of the 90 percent.


Philadelphia filled the gap with fake interviews.


“It was a phone conversation — I forget the exact words — but it was, ‘Go ahead and fabricate it’ to make it what it was,” Buckmon told me.


Census, under contract from the Labor Department, conducts the household survey used to tabulate the unemployment rate.


Interviews with some 60,000 household go into each month’s jobless number, which currently stands at 7.3 percent. Since this is considered a scientific poll, each one of the households interviewed represents 5,000 homes in the US.


Buckmon, it turns out, was a very ambitious employee. He conducted three times as many household interviews as his peers, my source said.


By making up survey results — and, essentially, creating people out of thin air and giving them jobs — Buckmon’s actions could have lowered the jobless rate.


Buckmon said he filled out surveys for people he couldn’t reach by phone or who didn’t answer their doors.


But, Buckmon says, he was never told how to answer the questions about whether these nonexistent people were employed or not, looking for work, or have given up.


But people who know how the survey works say that simply by creating people and filling out surveys in their name would boost the number of folks reported as employed.


Census never publicly disclosed the falsification. Nor did it inform Labor that its data was tainted.


“Yes, absolutely they should have told us,” said a Labor spokesman. “It would be normal procedure to notify us if there is a problem with data collection.”


* * *


During the 2010 Census report — an enormous and costly survey of the entire country that goes on for a full year — I suspected (and wrote in a number of columns) that Census was inexplicably hiring and firing temporary workers.


I suspected that this turnover of employees was being done purposely to boost the number of new jobs being report each month. (The Labor Department does not use the Census Bureau for its other monthly survey of new jobs — commonly referred to as the Establishment Survey.)


Last week I offered to give all the information I have, including names, dates and charges to Labor’s inspector general.


I’m waiting to hear back from Labor.


I hope the next stop will be Congress, since manipulation of data like this not only gives voters the wrong impression of the economy but also leads lawmakers, the Federal Reserve and companies to make uninformed decisions.

Don't hold your breath: the reason is that this particular instance manipulation is merely the tip of the iceberg - since virtually all data out of the BLS is manipulated and fabricated, as we report each and every month, the last thing the legislative and certainly the executive want is to offer the general public a glimpse of just how deep the rabbit hole goes. Because it goes very, very deep.

One can only hope this forces at least some more people to wake up about the sad farce this once great nation has devolved to in its quest to destroy the middle class.

The only real good news, as noted above, is that yet another conspiracy theory is forever cast into the void, and going forward the only thing the random, but manipulated, number generator out of the Bureau Of Lies And Subterfuge will be good for, is to prod the just as pathetic HFT algos into a buying frenzy when month after month the economy is painted with rosy brushes, even as millions forever drop out of the labor force, never to return.

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max2205's picture

Barry needs to go to a FEMA

Alpo for Granny's picture


HoofHearted's picture

I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue!

It's gonna get worse before it gets better. Of that we can be sure.

dryam's picture

If you like your job numbers, you can keep.......oh never mind.

NoDebt's picture

"Philadelphia filled the gap with fake interviews"

Philadelphia, huh?  Same place that entire voting precincts went 100% (OR MORE!) for Obama in 2012?  Same place they threw out all non-Democratic polling observers ON ELECTION DAY before the GOP got them back in (hours later) by emergency injunction?  Same place I have been talking about here for YEARS as the "New Chicago" when it comes to corruption?

Color me fucking shocked.

If this lying-ass motherfucking cocksucking son of a bitch Manchurian Candidate president makes it to the end of his 2nd term and exits in the normal fashion, we all deserve the 2x4 that's currently being shoved up our asses.  

"If you like your son of a bitch president, you can keep your son of a bitch president."

And yeah, you can quote me on that.

YBNguy's picture

UH OH Mr. investigative journo-man is willing to release his information to Congress, and to what end? More kabuki congressional hearings? Yeah, because those were sooooo effective in rooting out corruption from Benghazi, IRS targetting, NSA targetting, Fast n furious, ad naseum... 

James_Cole's picture

Better get 60 mins on this. 

JohnnyBriefcase's picture

Gimmee a sec...


*puts on shocked face*



LetThemEatRand's picture

Did anyone else notice that Jack Welch owns the Obama pro-media?  Jesus, people. Please, ZH, don't succumb to WWF antics.

LetThemEatRand's picture

Welch, owner of the "liberal media."  "Jamie Dimon is a great CEO"

It is all a lie.  All of it.

James_Cole's picture

I don't get it, are you saying Tyler was claiming Welch is a liberal?

LetThemEatRand's picture

It's much more complicated than that.  Welch goes on his own TV shows to debate whether the job numbers are real while his paid employees tell him and the public they are.  Think about that for a second.  Divide.  Conquer.  ZH is putting him out there as a voice of reason.   Our entire political system is based on this.  False debate.  Control the message.  Fake in-fighting among the Teams.  Is Hulk or the Destroyer going to win this round?

James_Cole's picture

To be fair Tyler is quoting this story from....the nypost lol

zh QC slipping tonight

zhandax's picture

The assumption that 'the base' who re-infected our country with this maggot could care about job numbers defies logic.  None of them wants a real job.

King_of_simpletons's picture

These manipulations happen to government data, every day. It is adjusted to suit the sitting president and to mold the policies of the federal reserve.

What's so shocking in this revelation ? This is not a one-off type manipulation.

JungleCat's picture

When asked by Rand Paul about the faked numbers, Hillary Clinton said this:


With all due respect, the fact is we have four braindead Americans: Obozo, Byethen, Paloosi and that oxymoronic Mormon from Nevada. So what difference at this point does it make? Who cares about some faked number from 14 months ago? We need to address the issue at hand: four braindead Americans.

Hillary to the rescue in 2016.

Payable on Death's picture

Fake, fake, fake.


all of life can be reduced to a Seinfeld moment.

GetZeeGold's picture



Pre-Election Jobs Report Was Faked


Thanks goodness CNBC was there to warn us!


Next time you see Joe Kernen.....make sure you thank him.


Maria tried to warn them to come screw it....she's going to Fox.

remain calm's picture

Just another example of how the government is like a whore.

ejmoosa's picture



Rick Santelli predicted it well in advance.

RSloane's picture

Yeah we know James, its not really news until its on MSNBC,

AlaricBalth's picture

From the year end 2012 ZH Greatest Hits:

"The 13th most popular post reminds us just what the biggest media circus for public consumption of 2012 was: the presidential election, where a key part of assuring the success of the incumbent was the battery of ridiculously strong economic reports, subsequently all revised far lower, in the days and weeks leading to the November election. In "Data Massaging Continues: Initial Claims Tumble To 339K Lowest Since 2008, Far Below Lowest Expectation" the October headlines were there merely to spoon-feed the masses; one look beneath the headlines, however, proved that as in every other banana republic, the US was no better off. However, all is fair in pre-election campaigns and data fudging, and the BLS would certainly not be held accountable."

Acet's picture

Just like the World Wrestling Federation it's completelly fake and for entertainment purposes only.

illyia's picture

Rand - I agree with the false narrative. But what is really scary is if they are not only infinitely corrupt on every side (obviously) but just blind and stupid. If there is no real "control the message" clearinghouse, just a catch-as-catch-can. Scratch-sniff-censor or promote. More and more I see this side of the dialectic fighting openly against that one and both come out looking like brats. Not even grade-school. Just idiots.

On the fence on this question:

Are the various competing PTB smart enough to actually control the message to such a degree that the word "control" really applies (CNN has done no in-depth investigation into the ramifications of the TPP even though its arguably the most important issue to the world's people). Or, are the interests just grabbing what they can and twisting  and repeating as the opportunity presents (CNN has yet to do a puff-piece on the TPP, either).

The Koch brothers are working against the Chicago team - but the Chicago team also includes the Neo-Cons and the Strauss-a-holics. They are clearly not Obama-team. Maybe that explains all the shooting in Chi-town!

And, where does Israel fit in? Does not one interest group currently in power care about their pet?

It appears not.

g speed's picture

Hunter--author of the "Sniper" series novels has an interesting therory---He calls it the "narrative".  He explains it somewhere around the middle of his novel "I Sniper". I remember it because it makes a lot of sense of how the MSM thinks.     

GetZeeGold's picture




Sooo basically the damage control strategy seems to be carting out the Koch brothers and Israel.


That should totally work.

r101958's picture

illyia- to address your 'on the fence' question- I wrote this almost exactly 5years ago on another site:

Tue, 11/18/2008 - 22:56
Re: The art of deception; Hank Paulson speaks

In reality, there are only two ways we can judge the activities of Paulson and Bernanke. One, they are ignorant of the real causes of the problems we face or they are incompetent or both.  Two, they are very aware of what is going on and have been part and parcel to a clandestine plan to create another financial paradigm.

I think most people choose the former alternative because it is much easier to rationalize and will not end up getting you labeled a conspiracy theorist. However, I believe that there are some that choose the latter.

If they (Paulson and Bernanke) are of the former ilk then I can only wonder how they arrived at their lofty positions carrying the heavy baggage of such ignorance.

If they are of the latter group then I believe they would rather be considered part of the former group as it is much less dangerous for them to be thought of as ignorant than it would be for them to be thought of as very intelligent, conniving middle men in a larger scheme.

Taking it a step further, it would be to their benefit to be thought of as blundering, well meaning, disconnected and clueless public servants. After all, who would we be angrier with, a fool or a grifter? Against which, theft or loss, would the public more quickly raise its voice?

Have any of you ever known a really good chess player? How many moves ahead do they plan? This also means they anticipate the moves of their adversary. I personally have never known a good chess player that thought any less than three moves ahead.

How ignorant and stupid are we prepared to think these men are? Are they really just pawns? If we can discern the reasons for our economic predicament then are we really willing to think that these men can not?

I really can not answer. However, I think these are some questions we might need to ponder.

Kayman's picture


The answer to the Paulson/Bernanke question is both answers are correct. In the long run they are ignorant, that is, they ignore the long run, for in the long run we are all dead and time obfuscates. But in the short run, new money/credit from the Fed feeds the power elite years before it trickles down to the average middle class taxpayer, if ever.

illyia's picture

Hmmmm... so Obama, hired by the superscript PTB because of his useful heritage and arm-twistability is given extra-credit and an Amex black card and told to read the lines - not between them.

He is the useful idiot. Is he just a pawn? Did he look at the bread and decide to go with the "butter up" side and do more than cooperate.

Very tin-foilly... very black hat.

But that's what it looks like.

Ignorant as long as needed - or as long as the pidgeon can hold out.

RSloane's picture

You've got the wrong CEO in the wrong time frame.

MilleniumJane's picture

I am in full agreement.  While I feel a certain sense of satisfaction that, at last, here's some proof that we are not crazy "conspiracy theorists" concerning the BLS BS numbers, I keep wondering what the hell TPTB are up to behind the curtain.

I read the NY Post article to my husband and said, "Why the hell are they throwing their golden boy out to the wolves?  Something's up."

superflex's picture


Jack Welsh was CEO of GE until 2001.  I doubt that he had control of the media(NBC) in 2012.

You're confusing Jeff Immelt and Jack.  

Nice try, though.

RSloane's picture

Yup. I can't tell if Rand actually didn't know that or it was another "look over there" moment. Only he knows.

WillyGroper's picture


Beat by a penny, Welch's tweet-pot meet kettle.

Theater, all of it.

OneTinSoldier66's picture

The Corzining/Rehypothicating of Employment figures will continue until morale improves.

Deo vindice's picture

In a righteous society, election results that were based on false information would be overturned.

But, of course, that would be in a righteous society.

Wahooo's picture

Unfortunately, American government can't be destroyed without hurting innocents. We need a new type of neutron bomb for the corrupt; the voting booth simply isn't working. Voting, quaint idea, very antique.

NvrGivUp's picture

Better yet, start a new reality show: "

As the Matrix Crumbles"

dryam's picture

Obama can simply apologize and all is well. Isn't that the formula?

HulkHogan's picture

I'm already accepting his fake apology.

spankfish's picture

I think he just found out the numbers were faked on the news...

Jlasoon's picture

Have no fear the Warren Commission is here. 

Xibalba's picture

Fake. Just like the birth certificate 

JohnnyBriefcase's picture

That's like saying Yellen's hair is ugly shade of grey.


The birth certificate is fake? Everything about our political system is fake!


Everything that our entire civilization is built on is fake!!


Nevermind, It's way more safe to focus on little shit...

thisandthat's picture

If he declared himself a sovereign, he wouldn't need no stinking certificate, he would just be... How would anyone prove he wasn't a citizen, though (and... of what)?

1223pm's picture

Birth Certifake. sounds better.

RSloane's picture

I most definately will quote you, NoDebt.