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Look Away
If you are still of the belief that the stock "market" is a market of stocks idiosyncratically valued based on the aggregate of investors weighted expectations of future earnings potential, we highly recommend you look away from the chart below. If, however, like Rick Santelli's "something is wrong" comment or Carl Icahn's "it's all a mirage" perspective, you have some doubts, take a glimpse at the 'fundamental' reality you are betting your retirement on...
(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)
and as we noted earlier - this is with a falling USD... what happens (as with Europe) when the USD ramps next - on the back of another "Whatever it takes" moment from the ECB?
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The Zombies are now in charge .
C'mon Tyler(s). You very well know that when someone says dont look, they always have to look. Now I'm scarred for life.
And when you hear them shout "Heads Up!" often the best thing to do is to duck and cover.
And when Goldman Sach says "Buy!"....
oops i thought this was a BTC price vs. Obama approval chart ... my bad
Guys, I published this before, but there is a correlation coefficient squared of 0.9, meaning that 90% of the changes in the S&P500 are explained by the changes in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, and the start and stop of QE1, QE2 and QE3 (dummy variables in a multivariate regression model), please get this into your heads!!! EVERYTHING ELSE is just noise, it all accounts for just 10%!!!
If you listen to Kramer or CNBC, it's all noise, only the FED matters! If they keep QE, the S&P500 will keep on going up.
"there is a correlation coefficient squared of 0.9, meaning that 90% of the changes in the S&P500 are explained by the changes in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve"
Correlation does not mean causation.
You could just as easily claim that the upstoppable S&P500 was causing the Fed's balance sheet to soar.
the bursting of this bubble will be so spectacular and quick we muppets will marvel in slack-jawed wonder while the captains of this disaster scramble for cover and blame us for it. then we in turn will blame our brokers, and they will shrug and say they were only doing their job.
and they will be right. and the elite will stack their chips.
Yeah, I hear you. Each of the last bubbles has collapsed faster than the previous one. (The dotcom bubble took quarters, the housing bubble took about 2 weeks once the credit spreads started blowing out.) When this one goes, the shadow-banking collateral chains will collapse so fast that the big banks are forced to simply shut down. The entire financial payment system shuts down with them. If you are one millisecond late, you don't get out - of the market or the bank.
The only bubble is in the size of the balance sheet of the FED. While it keeps on going up, they market will keep on going up at the same rate.
Correct. fundamentals do not matter. Get the fuck out of the dollar, the Fed's message has never been more clear. It's time to change the game (again).
hedge accordingly.
law,
you know fundamentals never mattered----always only a part of the sales pitch
the salesman
No, no he is correctly talking about the steady increase in the size of the FED balance sheet, that is why fundamentals don't matter. Although multivariate analysis says that fundamentals matter only 10%, and FED balance sheet matters 90%.
I hear loud and clear, get out of the USD, but into what? Bitcoin? Gold will be crashed before it recovers its value.
The lizards are still in charge..
Looks like a graph of my desire for sex vs my wife's... Occasionally we meet in the middle, too.
Do you get to meet in the end occasionally too?
"We all know what's going on here..."
-Quagmire
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McKW5z3mNTQ
If the stockmarket was tanking while so many Obamacare is tanking, jobs growth is anemic, economy is stagnating and so many other policy blunders, the whitehouse would be in absolute crisis mode. At this point it is all about the stockmarket. Jam it higher at the expense of everything else, printing be damned. Just jam it higher at all cost right now because we need to keep the public from taking to the streets. Perception mgnt 101.
Just wait until the end of 2014Q1 when perception becomes reality and the holiday sales implosion is evident, along with the new reality of every citizen having to pay $100-$200 more per month in 0zer0care cost, punctuated by the 0zer0care "tax" if you don't comply that will be evident on April 15th. That will be against the backdrop of the next budget/debt limit debacle. Throw in a few "unexpected" snowstorms that NEVER happen in winter, with a collapse in housing (that also never happens in winter), and you have the perfect excuse for the inevitable double dip recession that "no one saw coming". The perfect replay of 2008 all over again. Pump & Dump, then MOAR, and QE to infinity and beyond. All to fleece the sheeple of whatever hard assets they have left to redistribute to the 1%. Rinse and Repeat. It's not even hard to see anymore.
Why on earth would there be a holiday sales implosion? Nominal GDP is at record high. Household net worth is at record high. Americans love to buy buy buy. This will be a record holiday sales year as always. LOL
This market has taken the 'funda' out of 'fundamental'.
Looks perfectly alright to me in the current environment of sociopaths and lunatics.
A truly divergent moment...POP!
A little note to you guys, yesterday Nasdaq made a Peak Key Day Reversal yesterday, and the risk for a correction (how deep is debatable) has increased notably by the pattern this week.
Technical analysis still has some utility. Fundamentals? Not so much...
By "technical analysis" I assume you mean tracking the Fed's monthly QE tally.
$85B. Check.
$85B. Check.
$85B. Check.
And so on, like that.
"You didn't build that".
LOL
-3.8% change in Q4 2013 earnings estimate
+9.1% change in SPX
your trusty market pal, multiple expansion, busy at work.
Fundamentals don't mean anything these days but, call it nostalgia or a sanity bias, I believe someday they will.
The markets are a FUCKING LIE!
Just like they were in 2007; and there are legions of working Americans with all their savings trapped in the casino - the I.R.A.'s, the 401K's, the Pension Funds - that provide the gambling money for the banks and investment houses.
CONgress and the POTUS and the Supine Court are in their pocket, backed by the N.S.A. military/industrial complex.
Our society has become an abject lie, a propaganda machine of epic proportions, a kleptoligarchy of biblical proportions.
The citizens will be raped all over again, followed by "no one saw this coming" and more "legislation".
What a bunch of dumb fucking sheep we are to allow this generational theft and immorality!!!
My GOD I almost can't believe it; and the tragic sorrow is that so few understand it!!!
Yeah, they are a lie, but for now they keep on going up. Timing is everything. You tell me when the bubble will come to an end, if you can.
Corporate profits are at all-time highs and so are stocks. I don't see the disconnect. There is no other place to put your money. Want to earn 0% at the bank or money market fund? Home Depot blew away earnings with an 8% comp store sales increase today and they trade at a reasonable 19x forward earnings. They are also buying back $6 billion in stock this year. It's a very typical story. Sales robust, profits even more robust and stock prices at all-time highs. What don't you sheeple understand?
it really fucking sucks that these ads play and there's no way to fucking stop them other than the fucking mute button, which i use.
looks like the hedge is gonna get less traffic from this guy cause i'm not putting up with this fucking shit.
<cough>adblock<cough>
I find it helpful...
To take 3 seconds and turn the speakers off.
Oh, Oh, the agony of minor distractions. Pick up your toys and sod off!
your suggestion is great .. except of course for the fact that so many of the articles are central to a video you can't hear due to your "solution".
if you spent less time being a dick and thought about it for 2 seconds, you might realize that people are not complaining about the ads while reading, but while trying to watch (and hear) a video .. the sound plays on top of each other making it very difficult to understand.
When the USD ramps the Fed will do "whatever it takes". Then japan will do "whatever it takes". Then the UK will do "whatever it takes". Then the EU, again, will do "whatever it takes". This is a currency war and the result is tit-for-tat oneupmanship.
I think it's called a race to the bottom.
I wish my money weren't made of cotton,
Bad times, they're all forgotten,
Look awaaaay, look awaaaaay, look awaaaay, head in sand.....
Yellin to increase QE Big Bank Giveaway to 150 billion a month to juice Dow to 20,000! We're going to the Moon Alice!
Withdraw your pensions and buy BitCoin.
Anyhow there is no relationship between earnings and the price of a stock. People that write such things are dating themselves. 2011 marked the implementation of FED software to determine price exclusively from anything less than a global EMP. As long as there is electricity and light beams we are good to go.
Buy digital currency the supply of which is unlimited?
Tell me why.
Yeah, the mute button. It makes that Flowplayer ad with all the skinny models kind of nice.
....so roughly a 4% decline in earnings equates to a 10% increase in price.....my take away: declining earnings mean more $$$$$$ printed and more stock buying.......fundamentals??? How antiquated!
Left axis is a dollar.
" "there is a correlation coefficient squared of 0.9, meaning that 90% of the changes in the S&P500 are explained by the changes in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve" " More people would get the answer if you had simply stated which came first the chicken or the egg?
"Ho lee fuk. Sum ting wong."
Yu tu dum tso wee lai too yoo.