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JCP Burns Through $3 Billion In 2013: All The Earnings Charts That Matter

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Moments ago JCP announced results for Q3 which were atrocious, with Q3 earnings of -$1.81 coming in worse than already numerously lowered expectations of -$1.74. Comp store sales declined 4.8% with total revenues of $2.779 billion in the quarter, even as margins continued contracting, and dipped to 29.5%. The margin chart below says it all: Q3 margins have followed the following path: 2011- 37.4%, 2012 - 32.%5; 2013 - 29.5%... one can figure out what comes next. But most notably, in Q3 the company once again ignited its cash burn afterburners, with total free cash flow of $898 million, bringing the total cash burn for 2013 to a whopping $3 billion! Luckily for the company, in 2013 it has been able to fund all of this cash burn through a combination of cash and stock, amounting to $3.2 billion YTD. At October 31, the company had $1.2 billion in total cash which should allow it to enter 2014 without filing for bankruptcy, although with a total debt load of $5.6 billion compared to $3 billion a year ago, only very foolish people can possibly see how this story has anything but a very unhappy ending.

And with yet another horrible quarter in the books, and the company still hemmorhaging cash, we enter the make or break Q4, where revenues jump as margin crater, but cash flows are expected to increase. Because if JCP can't generate positive FCF in the holiday quarter, it's pretty much game over.

Free Cash Flow:

 

Revenues - Q4 will clearly be the liquidation make or break quarter.

 

Margins - liquidation comes at a price: if the margin is too low there will be no FCF. Can the company pull it off?

 

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Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:15 | 4172989 Headbanger
Headbanger's picture

Who??

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:19 | 4173003 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Who went a little overboard on the BK party favors?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 10:33 | 4173189 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

and the stock is up large this morn percentage wise....go team...

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 10:40 | 4173216 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

JCP is an acronym for Just Close Penny's.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 15:37 | 4174571 daveO
daveO's picture

Just Cheap Products? or

Just Crazy Promotions? (Ellen Degenerate)

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:07 | 4173303 yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Plunge Protection Tean has so much printed money their just throwing it everywhere.

The Fed needs to continue their recklessness further and pay states bills directly with printed cash.  

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:19 | 4173005 Dear Infinity
Dear Infinity's picture

What would a dead cat be, if it didn't bounce? Gold to the moon.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 10:13 | 4173144 SunRise
SunRise's picture

Long Forgotten History

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 10:37 | 4173203 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

They continue to act and sound like KMart in their death throes. Each new CEO liquidates the previous CEO's "bright idea" at a significant loss and then talks up their own book.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:16 | 4172991 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

waiting to see jcp inventory at BIG LOTS...only a matter of time.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:23 | 4173018 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

or a merger with the GAP

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:40 | 4173056 Rainman
Rainman's picture

JCP is an anchor tenant in many USA malls. Shuttering them will put big pressure on CMBS.

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-03-08/news/sns-rt-markets-creditl1n0c07d7-20130308_1_cmbs-mall-anchor-jc-penney

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:22 | 4173368 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I cannot even remember the last time I stepped into a mall.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:59 | 4173521 NIHILIST CIPHER
NIHILIST CIPHER's picture

ejmoosa               Don't go near malls, and I don't buy anything from China if I can avoid it. That is how you kill the beast.........don"t feed it.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 15:45 | 4174613 daveO
daveO's picture

At this point, I buy Chinese. Then, I buy gold with the savings. Until a dollar collapse, people here aren't going give a hoot about our current $500 Billion/yr trade deficit.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 15:42 | 4174599 daveO
daveO's picture

And Sears on the other end! Roller Rinks?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:18 | 4172996 Caveman93
Caveman93's picture

Ahh yes...free market in action once again. Hey! Ya know what? If I had that much worthless fiat I'd burn through it as quick as possible too. But, wait? That was not cash on hand but credit right?

Kind of reminds me of certain principles. A bit OT but, not really. IT recruiter calls me out of the blue today. Asks me to come work for him for X$. I say my rate is Y$. He says he cannot do Y$. I wished him luck in his search for that "perfect" skill set. 

Basic law of supply/demand. If you want it, better price it right bitchez.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:20 | 4173000 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"Basic law of supply/demand. If you want it, better price it right bitchez." - works well for a local eCONomy, not so much for a global one...

 

I have always wondered what the aliens will be giving the earth in exchange for all the products (and the resources to make those products) in the future.  Please there are no "laws" of eCONomics, it's a CON, period.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:38 | 4173052 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

It also has to do with wants verses needs. A cadillac is a want. A car that runs is a need. cloths are secondary, peeps don't even dress up for church anymore.

That's also why shitty companies like Aco hardaware sells shit hardware and many food products. Maybe JCP should start selling grocercies.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:24 | 4173306 11b40
11b40's picture

Seems to be working for Family Dollar and Dollar General.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:18 | 4172997 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It always sucks when they throw you out of the club.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:25 | 4173020 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Never was in the club. WOuld rather shit my pants and sit it in all day than be near that fucking club. except if they give away beer, but still.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:32 | 4173410 Saro
Saro's picture

Clubs for Everybody: You're either in one or being hit with one.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:18 | 4172998 DanTak
DanTak's picture

Will all inventory go to Sears?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:19 | 4173002 DanTak
DanTak's picture

I should short JCP, Sears And BEst buy, SUpervalu and gamestop.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:24 | 4173008 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

THAT'S WHAT HAPPENS IF YOU PAY MORE THAN THE MINIMUM WAGE!!!!

 

TO SUCCEED IN AMERICA, ONE MUST:

1. PAY SLAVERY WAGES TO THE SLAVES

2. DON'T GO FOR "QUALITY PRODUCTS".... JUST GO FOR PRODUCTS WITH LABELS THAT SAY "KUALITY PRODUKTS"

3. ONCE YOU GO CHINESE, YOU DON'T... whatever.... DO EVERYTHING THE CHINESE WAY.

 

 

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:21 | 4173010 uncle.bigs
uncle.bigs's picture

The stock is trading higher by 8%.  LOL.  JCP will be fine.  They'll make a ton of money over the Christmas holiday and comps are now trending positive.  

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:27 | 4173023 jcaz
jcaz's picture

You must have missed the "sarcasm" button-  only a fool would think that JCP is going to be "fine" after this report,  but hey, keep making my March puts cheaper.....

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:27 | 4173021 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Liberal Ron Johnson was to JCP what Obama is to the USA.  Forward!

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:32 | 4173045 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

Yep, Johnson should qualify for numerous gubbermint jobs now.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:57 | 4173105 pods
pods's picture

Maybe they should have hired Ron Jeremy instead?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:54 | 4173505 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

He could attract more gay dads perhaps?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:05 | 4173297 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

stop. enuf politics fo sur. 

ron johnson was an egotistical little snot out of LaJolla who loved, loved, loved Nordstroms and held his nose every time he had to slum it in Plano.  I mean, what person from Edina, MN would ever ever live in Texas?  From the first introduction with his his crocodile smile and chiclet teeth, perfect hair and insincere bullshit this company--JCP--was in trouble.   He was a marketing genius. /sarc?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:22 | 4173372 11b40
11b40's picture

......And he had no idea of who the JCP customer was.  $50.00 Bodum Coffee Presses in JCP.  Gourmet Specialty stores can't even sell those overpriced contraptions that make crappy coffee.

....With no idea of how to drive traffic into the stores.  Concept ads, no discounting = empty aisles and stacks of unsold merchandise.

Retail is truly a screwed up landscape for too many companies.  JCP laid off tons of employees, starting last year.  Now, they are showing up in various places, but Stage Stores in Houston is another one to watch for future shorting opportunities.  Several key management positions have been filled there by former JCP ex-pats, and they are busy pushing out seasoned Stage employees.  The new management has grand ideas about exploding the business, but they don't have a clue who their customer is, either.  It would be amusing if not so sad.

 

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:39 | 4173436 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

yep, clueless about the jcp customer base and marketing.  My favorite item was the $500 vacuum cleaner.  That's more than most customers make in a month.  possibly a year looking at those shopping clearance.

Now they're in the process of clearing out the marketin genius' home furnishing debacle.  or marking down and getting rid of the tramp dresses for that little tart of yours to wear at prom that were retailing for $200.  Are you fucking kidding me?

there is a book here about the ron johnson tenure or a grade B movie.  people just wouldn't believe how he fucked this company all the while earning $54 million to do it.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:31 | 4173040 Yoann
Yoann's picture

People always have hope...  until it's too late

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 09:52 | 4173090 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

only very foolish people can possibly see how this story has anything but a very unhappy ending

Foolish people and shill advertisers pretending to be reporters.

http://money.msn.com/inside-the-ticker/default.aspx?videoid=12066360-cae5-4f57-93a9-c1e8576c87c2

 

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 10:40 | 4173214 shutdown
shutdown's picture

I haven't been inside a JC. Penney store in decades. Surprised to find out they still exist. Do they still sell stuff from the 50s and 60s?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 10:53 | 4173246 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Fuk Yeah! Bullish

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:12 | 4173323 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

still looking good in plastic and well preserved

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:14 | 4173330 NEOSERF
NEOSERF's picture

Radioshack and JCP will be gone by Memorial Day after their managment was shocked, just shocked, that their holiday sales were poor...

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:31 | 4173405 11b40
11b40's picture

I agree that JCP will very likely be forced into a Chapt 11 filing by suppliers/credit community.  Then, it will take about 10 seconds for a D.I.P. number to appear, and we are off to the races again.

Least productive stores close, virtually all leases and other contracts re-negotiated, and like magic they are good to go....for another few years, until they are right back in another corner.  Or not, depending on how the latest and greatest management team leads the charge.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 11:42 | 4173451 Trimmed Hedge
Trimmed Hedge's picture

The sell some okay stuff by non-JCP brands, like Dockers or whatever

However, they also sell some expensive "trendy" stuff that nobody buys (via Ron Johnson), as well as some pretty low-quality JCP-brand stuff

They need to focus on that "okay stuff by non-JCP brands" part, dump the "trendy" stuff, and either improve the JCP brand stuff or dump that too

 

Shit, I should be their CEO...

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 12:38 | 4173685 bingo was his name
bingo was his name's picture

Can some-one explain to me why they lost more money per share than expected last quarter and the stock got a 8% bounce today?  Have we all taken our crazy pills?

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 12:45 | 4173710 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

yes.

i can't believe the spin on all tv and msn.com

numbers don't lie, however, and these were awful.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 13:02 | 4173770 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

Even the Salvation Army knows better than to stand in front of JCPs...

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 14:13 | 4174052 corporatewhore
corporatewhore's picture

best line of all. props.

Wed, 11/20/2013 - 20:38 | 4175729 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, where are all these JCP customers going?  Folks still have to wear underwear, ammiright?

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