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Fed Confused As Initial Claims Improve, Producer Price Inflation Most Negative Since April
A pair of conflicting economist reports this morning.
On one hand, the DOL reported that seasonally adjusted Initial Claims dropped from an upward revised 344K to 323K (a number which will be revised higher as is now the tradition) below the expected 335K, which incidentally in an ultrasensitive environment to every piece of good news may be bad news as it means the November NFP report may come in better than expected and cement the Fed's intention to taper as soon as December at least according to yesterday's FOMC Minutes. Then again, the BLS noted that the decline was influenced by the Veterans' Day holiday, so once again what is really going on beneath the surface is very much unclear. As Bloomberg notes, as a result of the holiday, "investors should anticipate a likely reversal next week in the pace of firings." Ironic when the bulls are forced to cheer for bad economic data so the Fed balance sheet-driven melt up may continue. Continuing claims rose modestly by 66K to 2.876MM, slightly higher than expected, but well below the 3.325MM at this time last year.
On the other hand, Producer Price Inflation followed the recent CPI decline, and dropped by 0.2% in October in line with expectations, making the October headline PPI print the biggest drop since April's -0.7%. Broken down by component, foods saw an increase of 0.8%, offset by a 1.5% drop in energy. PPI ex-food and energy rose by 0.2%, a fraction above the expected 0.1%, and rose 1.4% compared to a year earlier.
So adding the two reports together: Claims suggest Fed may taper soon if the labor market is indeed improving (with companies hiring part-time workers), while the PPI confirms that at least according to the BLS, inflation is nowhere to be found, suggesting much more QE in stock.
Just you typical, run of the mill, baffle with BS day.
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My head is burning up and my feet are freezing, doc, what's wrong with me?
diabetes
Now are these numbers we believe, or not - I'm so confused.
target to the rescue:
"Nov 21 (Reuters) - Target Corp on Thursday reportedcomparable sales rose a smaller than expected 0.9 percent in thethird quarter, blaming what it called "constrained" consumerspending, and it lowered its full year profit forecast.
Target, which competes against Wal-Mart Stores Inc and other discount retailers, earned $341 million, or 54 centsper share, in the fiscal third quarter ended Nov. 2, down from$637 million, or 96 cents per share, a year earlier. On anadjusted basis, the discounter earned 84 cents per share.
Analysts were expecting comparable sales to rise 1.3percent.
The retailer now expects to earn an adjusted profit pershare of $4.59 to $4.69, compared with an earlier range of $4.70to $4.90. (Reporting by Phil Wahba in New York; Editing by Gerald E.McCormick)"
I'm sorry but Obamacare has just cancelled you health insurance so we can't help you.
But would you like a SNAP card?
And please read the latest Time Magazine to learn moar about Obamacare while you wait for no care.
http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2158133,00.html
Thank you and have a pleasant day!
And here's a Barryphone..so call someone who gives a shit
thank the PDs holding the M in M2 captive and not 'allowing' Fed to goose M2V [false mandate diversion]; printing to infinity straight into bank books that hold it [for Fed's 0.25 interest{0.24 more than savers get}] and/or swap it for toxic sludge. The Fed is guilty.
I agree. And I'll say it again.. People don't get it through their heads that the big banks ARE the Federal Reserve and it is NOT the Federal Government!
In fact, the whole QE scheme has really been a huge scam for the big banks to make a killing off the Main Street economic crisis, not to help it!
And so do you sheeple think the Big Banks/Federal Reserve WON'T save their collective fat wealthy 1% ass now that it's all falling apart especially now that there's no more political imperative cause Obama is nothing now??
The fact that we're still talking about a Taper that consists of a few percentage point drop in insane money pumping that will continue, because there is no one left for companies to fire, instead of ending QE because it was obviously a dismal failure*, cracks me up. Or more accurately, makes me drink.
*of course it was a great success at creating more wealth for the oligarchs, so it was a failure only if you accept the official reason for it.
Uhhhh....punt?
food and fuel prices are dropping. discounts at stores are already thru the roof. deflation is winning.
Sure seems so.
Capital controls in the form of price controls for key commodities are in place. Price controls + no innovation = natural deflation. Price controls are a reverse capital control, in that if you do not produce expensive, innovative products, you have no need to either charge high prices to customers or seek out expensive financing from the banks on either the producer side or the buyer side. Quality implosion. If no one is selling expensive goods, no one can buy expensive goods, and then no one needs credit.
Look to skillful selling in generics and bargain brands to lead the way here moving forward.
I need to be be food shopping where you are then.
'Conflicting eclownomist reports'...gee imagine that, a coupla eggheads see the tea leaves differently!
Ok, let's stop the sharades and just fast foreward to the No Debt Ceiling, QE Infiniti scene of this very, very funny movie.
Funny ha-ha or funny queer?
Cue Peter Schiff please with the:
'See I fucking told you they would never taper!' rant.
Never forget this, when this guy does his thing, none of your charts will stop the ramp... http://i.imgur.com/H5htx1B.png
Everything will start making sense once it starts snowing.
Bullish.
Deflation is winning, except that everything I buy to feed and clothe my family is twice what I paid for a couple of years ago if I were to count price increase along with "desheeting" practice by most consumer product companies.
Hey, stocks are trading higher today. Whodanodeit. Taper schmaper. Everybody get on board the party train.
No shit they are confused, when you tell lies and cook the books 24/7 you can't remember what you can say without getting caught lying... Sound familiar, Barry?
If you take 2 seconds to think about it, it is only logic to see that first time claims are dropping as the total number of active population in the labor force also drops. Fewer people working means that fewer people are eventually eligible to apply for unemployment benefits… Does that mean that the labor market is getting better?! Nope.
Easy. Initial Claims are false, as we know. PPI is true, as we know.
what is the current velocity of money?
9.8 m/s
found the answer, it does not look good.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V/
US Federal Reserve, destroy yourself with QE to infinity.
It will be nice to see when the Fed looses control.
Why is PPI being negative a bad thing? It means that it's cheaper to produce goods and service. That's a good thing. It's probably supply side deflation coming from China about to crash.