This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
It's The Fundamentals, Stupid!
"All fixed"
»
- 38387 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
Contact Information:
Tips: tips [ at ] zerohedge.com
General: info [ at ] zerohedge.com
Legal: legal [ at ] zerohedge.com
Advertising: ads [ at ] zerohedge.com
Abuse/Complaints: abuse [ at ] zerohedge.com
Suggested Reading:
Make sure to read our "How To [Read/Tip Off] Zero Hedge Without Attracting The Interest Of [Human Resources/The Treasury/Black Helicopters]" Guide
It would be very wise of you to study our disclaimer, our privacy policy and our (non)policy on conflicts / full disclosure. Here's our Cookie Policy.
HYG has interest rate risk baked into it no? what about using CDX spreads or something instead?
That chart should be permanently displayed in the corner of all American tvs, here is your exceptionalism bitchez.
In defense of my compatriots, we wouldn't understand the implications. ;-)
we wouldn't understand the implications.....
the coma toast popped a long time ago, they're all in the kitchen fixing a slice
<-- ... like a dog"
<-- ... like a horse race"
"All fixed..."
When looking at the incredible "market" gains today, you should remember that today was an huge POMO day, with the fed pumping over $5B into the market.
http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html
Let's see what the NY Fed does on Nov 27 at 3p for December.
All that matters is what the Fed is doing
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/11/the-fed-vs-market-john-allison.html
We're #1....#1.....#1!!
QE and the Fed have made the stock market a Giffen good.
The market in this economy is an "inferior good", but more is invested as the market rises because all other alternate investments must compete against the bottomless "reserve" of baseless fiat pouring into stocks.
The market can only now rise. Stagnation or decline would "reverse the flow" and send a tidal wave of radioactively hot money pouring into the world economy creating economic chaos.
The stock market has become a holding tank for an ocean of radioactive hot money.
US Monetary Policy and US Fiscal Policy is actually the same thing. When the Treasury need a lot of credit to plug a hole the Fed monetizes. This is not a new phenomenon. Correlation is 0.82
http://i42.tinypic.com/347i5fm.png
As you can see in the above chart, the Budget Balance is improving. The Fed has slipped behind the cycle.
SNAP equities, gotta be in it to win it!
Hopefully this is going to work forever....cause there ain't no plan B.
We're gonna need a bigger chart...and make it deeper too...just in case...
Yellen may have us all screaming before this is through. Good luck my friends. Take it QEasy - Happy Thanksgiving. Count the blessings.
Maybe not so much, "QEasy".
Maybe a little bit more like, "Queasy".
getzeegold, this is plan B. only way out is to get plan A operational. carbon taxes
Why would money jump off the banks balance sheets and into the markets if the Fed stopped supporting the market? Wouldn't we have bank failures again and assets going to zero. How would the money go back into the market?
communists running the Fed. Never saw that coming. that's like have a "criminal justice system" or a "central intelligence agency." maybe it's a word play. from "pay to play to play to pay." or maybe it's a play on words: "playdo." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxMqDxtjw1U
The Bernanke is not afraid of fundamentals. The Bernanke IS the fundamentals.
Never saw it coming? The Fed was created by the people who created communism...
"we wouldn't understand the implications"
I can hear it now: "Hey look! Whenever the stock market goes up, the Fed gets a bigger balance sheet. Winning!"
As a vet, I've had it. Tyler. You ban guys like francis sawyer yet let useless assholes like fonestar run wild?
What fucking bullshit has ZH become?
it amazes me that people can't see the transformation that has taken place, even if it's just in the comments section.
ZH has been assimilated, like every other g'damned thing on this planet.
Except for ACA trolls......those guys get bitch-slapped pretty hard around here.
Cause no one around here is that stupid.
Please continue to call it Obamacare. Obama and his cronies have stopped using the term because of its negative conotations. The term should remain pinned to his ass forever.
All things are in all things: becoming a quantum blob of QE.
How do you know he was banned? He may have just run out of money and went away.
fwiw - this is my 5th id I have created so i can contribute here.
I get kicked off here when ever I scream about how capital can only come from the fruit of labor or how bitcoin has no physical sense.
Tyler is a nagger who knows who his massa is and free flowing ideas of worth are not for got damned slaves to systems that steal from real humans.
Yes Tyler is to humans as Bitcon is to wealth - spineless bootlicking political correctness of never doing anything good for the whole (cause that would require a face, credibility and ability to make deposits of liberty)
IAMSLATTERY
NO USURY ON CURRENCY CREATION
NO GOVERNMENT SHALL EVER BORROW
We should start our own board. With black jack, prostitutes and liquor. In fact forget the board.....
Agreed Jeremy but HY has been under performing stocks for over a month (beta adjusted) and perhaps it makes some sense to use HYG in this comp as a reflection of taper concerns or growth fears? Especially since so much flow is into the ETFs now and then to the hy market itself.
Ultimately the fate of Obama and the Capitol Hill leadership class lies with how happy or unhappy the 1% are. As the Feds prospects fade, those of Wall St will continue to rise at this point.
An chart correlating Federal function and legitimacy in the eyes of the people will probably correlate the inverse relationship.
As Fed.gov contunies to blow out, so will the DOW/S&P
Schiff (Bitcoin vs Gold)
http://blog.europacmetals.com/2013/11/bitcoin-vs-gold-video/
Silly old charlatan talks about bitcoin, certain to have brilliant insights lol
Rothschild vs. Rothschild, how clever. (Schiff/bitCon)
Over.
Peter Schiff's technical background on Bitcoin [youtube].
Peter has been right so long we've stopped numbering them.....let's just say it's been a buttload.
Peter Schiff Was Right - 'Taper' Edition
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tak9ODlBJgM
Schiffs to the left of me, Warburgs to the right.. here I am stuck in the matrix with you.
I do wonder if he is going to get this one wrong.
“It’s tulip mania 2.0” “dot com bubble” “clouded judgement by the money” “what makes gold money is… that it has intrinsic value on its own” “look out below”
Incredible analysis Schiff!!
I thought you were on here the other day saying gold will be a better asset than bitcoin, no?
It always interests me to find out who makes repeated and consistent appearances on BTC threads. Some are as reliable as Ghordius showing up on EU topics.
Schiff hints around the main question everybody should be asking: Will Bitcoin succeed? Nobody knows. From my viewpoint everything has been happening pretty much right on schedule for success. But there is still much risk and nobody should go "all in" Bitcoin. If Bitcoin is successful, however, then a $20 speculative acquisition today will necessarily be worth factors greater in the future.
Sounds like the old 'if you send 5 people $1 now, then in the future 25 people will send you $1'.
It can certainly appear that way, yes. A real deal, like internet penetration rate ("oh it's just fad"), and a pyramid scheme look somewhat similar on the outside. I guess only time will tell.
Here is TheHound's 2014 predictions to gauge if Bitcoin remains on track for success:
1) Bitcoin continues to retain its position as the best performing asset for the 4th year in a row.
2) The percentage of merchants accepting Bitcoin as a payment method continues to increase at an increasing rate.
Bitcoin is rising because China is allowing it to - mostly. I have no insight into why they are blessing this particular monetary vehicle - but they are. I could be totally off base but I don't think so.
"why they are blessing this particular monetary vehicle"
Because it's not the USD. As a bonus, it pisses off Washington.
Anndd they have LOTS of Au, both gov't and citizenry, (gov't encouraged.! )... So, guess they can afford to speculate a bit or two.. (oops) :-)
The Chinese don't have a meaningful currency to defend, so they don't have a dog in the fight. China's strategy has been to get most of the factories in the world onto their shores...that's their game, and they are winning at it. Any currency that promotes international trade suits them just fine, and BitCoin's overwhelming advantage from their point of view is that BitCoin is the only real potential alternative to the dollar for electronic global transactions.
Hey, that sounds like a good deal. Put me down for $5.
bitcoin will succeed in becoming online transactional currency replacing paypal and such\
but bitcoin will not succeed in becoming a store of value
gold will be a better asset than bitcoin
I think I said safer, but yeah, my point was on Schiff.
Difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.
So you're saying gold has no intrinsic value?
gold has some intrinsic value (e.g. usage in electronics) but it is much much lower than its monetary value.
And monetary value of gold comes from people's weird willingness to trade their labour for gold
Monetary value of fiat comes from enforcement to pay taxes
herp derp
Gold is so thousands of years ago now.......we like the new stuff and we don't really care what that is.
We're in vogue.....and we look good!
carry on...
bitcoin has none intrinsic value (e.g. no usage anywhere else) so it is a zero division re monetary value.
monetary value of bitcoin comes from people's weird willingness to trade their labour for hashes.
monetary value of fiat can actually be lower than its commodity value, and some countries don't really rely on taxes
Where did you come up with the idea that folks trade labor for hashes?
Not a single human on the planet that has a job that qualifies as labor has one bitcon let alone know what a bitcon is.
Bitcons are for panzies who do not understand what real contribution is cause paranoia and having to work for a living are too scary.
Nice plot twist.
Over.
Unintended consequences of Banksters beating PMs down.
What are you going to do now? Make a Bitcoin ETF?
Yup. Simple difference between gold and bitcoin. Your secretary will put out if you give her gold to wear.
Been that way for thousands of years.
The intrinsic value of poontang.
that ends deflationary
Bitcoin and gold are superior to fiat.
Once fiat has bitten the dust we can then debate which is the superior of the two out of gold and bitcoin.
that is what shiff should have said.
I'd certainly consider using both. I don't speculate on the value of either in terms of fiat.
I don't give two shits what my PMs are "worth".
Only what they weigh.
I have, however begun to speculate on the value of litecoin, and am now a pumper. Everyone buy litecoins, they're FAR superior to bitcoin in every way, and in fact will be the annointed currency of the future.
I guarantee each one will be worth 12 boollion dollars very soon.
FED software doesn't include fundamentals.
The more salient point, can you have fundamentals in non efficient markets? Stupid?
Over.
Fundamentals INCLUDE the scam. Otherwise it's not fundamentals.
scam (sic) = scim
Did I miss a dip?
It's Birinyi's ruler! Looks like that's called technical analysis at the FED.
No wonder the hedgies are bitchin' about the Fed....providing cover for themselves when the retail big flush goes down. Pretty clever, really.
Long the Fed Balance Sheet
Nobody ever talks about the FED itself being the bad bank.
Impossible to unwind any of that mountain of MBS garbage they are stuck with.
Not quite nobody. Forbes: How the Federal Reserve Became History's Biggest Bad Bank
http://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrezza/2013/05/07/how-the-federal-reserv...
So Forbes agrees with you. There is no exit for the Fed.
http://craphound.com/images/nsa.gif
Over.
So.....How does it make you feel having this criminal enterprise using your tax $ to spy and record every utterance and transaction you make???
Like I finally hit stall speed bro. The bingo fuel is out, just fumes left.
Over.
No prob....just dial up 243.00 :>)
lol
Crony capitalism in it's purest form. In someways you have to marvel at the blatancy of it all.
"Conspiracy" journalists are now being pretty much openly murdered in the street.
False flags are so poorly done now, it looks like little kids put on a school play.
The gloves are pretty much off at this point.
Who could disagree with that? Political murder (ie whistleblowers, seals/military, journalists, and pretty much anyone who knows too much) is at a fever pitch and yes, the false flags are so blatantly false they are debunked by amateurs in under 48 hours.
If the gloves are really coming off, they had better pray for death, because there are far more good guys than bad guys out there and the good guys are finally waking up to the dire, do-or-die situation we are in.
Bravo. Fuck these guys.
Re: much openly murdered in the street.
Why would "they" bother? There's no conspiracy. It's all in the open. "They" tell people what they are going to do.
It's more like a farming cutting the head off a chicken. The farmer doesn't have to hide anything, the chicken can't comprehend what's going to happen any more than the Red and Blue Team dumbasses can comprehend the bullshit coming from the sociopaths they worship.
If Ross Perot couldn't sell is giant-sucking-sound to the dumbasses there's no much point in hiding anything from the dumbasses.
So why are you posting then?
Equity Margins raised. Gold ,oil and silver margins lowered.
http://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/lookups/advisories/clearing/files/Chadv13-540.pdf
Oh good, they called the little Dutch boy out of retirement to stick his finger in the dyke......aka.....the bubblegum fix.
Cause you can only invoke the threat of taper so many times.
every man and woman for themselves(like it hasn't been) but now the pie is shrinking to the point of savage grab...
As you can clearly see, the rise of the S&P 500 is forcing the FED to monetize more and more.
<do I have to say sarc?>
Fundamentals.....that's a good one.
Memorial Day 2019
25K DOW
2500 S&P
CHEERS BITCHEZ!
Correlation? I don't see no steenking correlation!
"All fucked up."
Ain't nothin' fixed.
Spackle on a cracked foundation.
Merry Christmas! Happy Hannukka!
.
.
.
...then....---------------> Zooey Kablooie.
I wonder what these jamokes tell each other over a holiday Wassail to soothe their heads and reassure and congratulate themselves? Has to be some really, really good shit.
Or EBW.....------------->SNAFU.
Situation Normal, All Fucked Up.
Everyone knows what they doing when JFK died.
Fed's Balance sheet is Fractional and BS just like their banks.
It's mark to fantasy accounting for the Fed.
QE pumping up S&P desperately hoping no one will notice other economic flat to descending indicators, and that will be enough to jolt everybody's confidence into a growing, robust economy. It's like pumping a track star with pain relievers before a performance so he will forget about his torn achilles tendon and win big! It's kind of sick and stupid, but, well, there it is.
Can equities go down if the Fed continues to print? Remember, the Zimbabwe stock market was in non-stop party mode during the hyperinflation. The only question is when does significant inflation kick in?
The Fed's balance sheet is now about 22 to 23 percent of GDP. A year ago the Fed's balance sheet was a little over 17 percent of GDP. Before Lehman it was consistently between six and 6.5 percent of GDP. In addition the ratio of M2 money to the Fed's balance sheet is now below 3. That is down from 3.6 a year ago and a little over 8 before Lehman. Right now all this money printing is being held mostly as "excess reserves", but what happens as these ratios appraoch 1? There has to be a point where we see rapid increases in prices. Where is that point? Because at that point the Fed must stop pritning or hyperinflation is inevidable.
jpc
The feds do not have to print a single additional dollar. HI is coming. I challenge you to explain how they can prevent it.
Everyone seems to have forgotten that the 10 year almost killed the derivatives market when Ben wispered the word taper.
So they can't quit but they can't cntinue.
Seriously...how do they prevent the wind from blowing?
And yet they dare roll out some ancient stuffed shirt to again wisper 'taper ' just the other day.
It is beyond ridiculous...and beyond hope.
Yup. And if you'll notice by the reaction of taper talk...the muppets are buying that shitburger, again?!?!
They really are idots...of the useful sort.
It's nuts and can't believe they have carried it on for so long but ... the economy is in a deflationary spiral aside from what stocks are saying. I'm thinking US dollar reserve status ends in a whimper not a bang.
I thought that hyperinflation was the point and is already inevitable. I watched chicken go from 29 cents a pound to over a dollar in the early '70s and our income and grocery budget didn't noticeably increase. My husband was in the Navy and he didn't get a decent raise until Reagan was elected.
Yes - when people realize that rather than buying an existing stock it is cheaper to build a new company from scratch
Tipping point will come from a small 'blackswan' event, that many don't percieve as being a 'blackswan' event. It will lead to the selling of treasuries...first slowly...and then avalanche.
Then you have a wash of dollars searching for something to buy or bid up.
Shortly after...inflation.
Also, the inflation will grow in peripheral economies first and the center of the empire last. So you can sort of follow it as it approaches. Watch CPI #'s in SE asia, S America or east Europe, etc.
If Japan is the model for QE we have another 10-20 years ... then the end game capitulate into the New World Order Currency.
Thanks a lot......that was suppose to be a secret.
10-20 years huh? I looked up the word optimist in the dictonary...and found a picture of you.
Are you aware that the U.S. has financed and carried Japan since the begining of the lost decade?
Who, pray tell has the financal wherewithall to support the massive exsesses of the U.S.?
If/When the U.S. Economy fails, the whole world will suffer.
Optomist indeed, U.S. creation of things of value is crashing now.
Oh ... those fundamentals ... was confused for a minute or two ....
Thanks to the Fed I can go out and borrow $75K, buy a Mercedes, and improve the economy all in one evening.
Amongs all those documents Snowden must have a bunch on gold and silver manipulation..... hurru up and bring it out.
The only "Fundament" Ben can understand his kick on his fundament.
And that's where all his brains reside alongside the normal crap
In the final analysis it will be
" How one Private Bank Bankrupted the world with the Mother of All Ponzi scheme"
or
" How the world was fooled( as they wished to remain stupid) into Bankruptcy"
Ignorance ( of the law ) they say is no excuse. So is not applying basic common sense to financial Ponzi schemes.
The stupid follow Goldman and JP Morgan to rest on the Morgue's slab.
Sounds like the old 'if you send 5 people $1 now, then in the future 25 people will send you $1'.
Wow. I remember getting one of those in the mail. And I recognized the handwriting. The sender was a friend of mine and he was very much afraid that I would tell my mother that it was he who had sent it to me. I kept the secret and he stopped doing it.
If there is a lesson to be learned from that, what is it?
The "Fix" is in.
Is this the game plan? DAMAGE LIMITATION BY SWAMPING MARKETS.
Game the system to 10000 with a majority share of 9000 and a minority share < 1000. Then taper because with the negative effect of any taper and subsequent withdrawal of the minority share the damage to the markets will be minimal if the majority share stays put.
Looks like it ... and that would be the curve ball. The level of gaming the system has to be sooooo big though and at the current rate it would take decades to be achieved. RAMP IT UP!
And now for the rest of the story - a giant inverted U-Curve coming to a neighborhood near you - it's mean, it's nasty, it doesn't take prisoners and it sure as hell doesn't take American Express....
That's the way ya do it-
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAD6Obi7Cag
Im all for bicoin etf... i dont trust the internet or bitcoin because of the NSA and the nazi obumbler... far as the stock market goes if you haven't made a fortune yet, why bother ... what's the upside potential at this point.. regardless if yellen can walk on water and turn water into ripple...
The NSA loves bitcoins.....cause you can't track cash.
Bitcoins always know your GPS coords. There should be an app out soon where if you ever get lost you can find yourself by pulling up your bitcoins on a google map.
so heat your house with firewood, already.....
you can "work out" yourself (its cheaper than the gym!)
or you can support the local economy, with tax-free cash ....
If JPMorgan buys a $billlion in bitcoins every other day, and then alternately dumped them, bitcoins would burn out from the friction in less than a month. Or! Since the number of bitcoins is inherently limited, the Fed could conceivably attempt to buy ALL of them with readily printed cash, driving them up so high in value that no one would be able to purchase anything with them short of a country or two; like Venezuela, for example....
Say, this is fun...
Meet the new king of chess : MAGNUS Carlsen.
Things are correlated, until they are not. However, a clearer case can not be made for what will happen should the fed taper.
I suspect they see this too. So who is gonna have ball's enough to bite the bullet, take the blame and crush America. Excuse me, crush the wealthy, the rest of America is already toast.
Words fail.
.