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Only 20% Of Economic Expansions In History Have Lasted Longer
With the duration of the current bull market now the 4th longest in history, we thought it worth noting just how unusual this business cycle has been. As the following chart shows, the current 'expansion' has lasted longer than 80% of all the 33 previous NBER expansionary periods. Of course, given projections from Wall Street to the Fed, there will never be another recession (by decree) ever again...
But The Fed already broke a record in one thing...
This is the longest duration of "easing" on record...
(@Not_Jim_Cramer)
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I just attended a Chamber of Commerce function in my corner of the world. Let me be the 1023'rd person to point out that QE isn't working on Main Street. But I got a blue ticket that bought me a free beer (free in the sense that I got a little back on my useless investment in the local Chamber), so there's that. The bar that hosted the event was none too happy when most everyone left after the blue tickets were used. I helped them out with a couple of paid for drinks. Because I care.
It could go twice as long and still not be the longest evah . . .
Look at the Fed's current "Duration of Easing Cycle" at 5 years ... the longest in recorded history.
We have ended the business cycle- Alan Pondscum
And that with meeting the dali lama....got that going for me.....
Big hitter, the llama....
@ LetThem...Atta boy! Support the local tavern. I just may put my bartender's kid through college tomorrow -- Friday!
I would have closed the place. 50 beers.
Next stop, 1st longest in history. Because, they want to be 1st!
Winning!
CreeEEAK...
All we have here is proof of a lie.
Only outdone by the end of 2 world wars, formation of the Federal Reserve, and the end of the gold standard.
The top 10% are doing pretty good. So, that's a start I'd say.
There was almost no expansion off the 2009 lows. A brief bounce-back followed by a bunch of GDP deflator BS that made a continuing slow decline look like a continuing slow expansion. And that's where we still are.
It's clear from the charts that infinite expansion can be accomplished by infinite QE. It's the tightenings that cause the problem.
If there was a recession now, millions would die. Simply that.
Therefore, there won't be one. As long as G is an input variable in the GDP equation, there won't be one. Government spending will ramp to the moon at the first hint, and don't think the GOP won't be voting for it. They will.
You're right. The print and spend fest will continue until it can't. The only reason to stop is for inflation to really get out of control, the bond market throws a fit and gold/silver get unleashed. Right now, everything appears fine so it's full speed ahead.
The fundamental that ZH doesn't embrace is the **drain**.
The Fed adds money, and it appears in the M1 aggregate. But the other Ms might not grow, BECAUSE MORTGAGES DEFAULTING REMAIN IN THE TRILLIONS.
There is added money. There is drained money. The drain will never ever be talked about, but it's the only thing that . . . forget gold, it doesn't matter and never will . . . it's the only thing that has oil south of $300/barrel. It is oil, civilization's lifeblood, that measures inflation. Nothing else.
It is the drain that permits QE. It will outlast the Bakken, and then the end arrives regardless of QE.
Look at China, the USA can always come up with a 51st state to take into its GDP calculations.
Someone appears to be confused as to what consitutes 'economic expansion' versus an expanding stock market.
I wonder how many folks (who are not participating in any sort of economic expansion) say to themselves, "Well, my community is not doing too well, but all the others must be because otherwise the stock market would not be so high."
All of us here of course recognize there is no connection between the economy and what is happening now on Wall Street, but most folks still equate a rising stock market with economic prosperity. So people may see themselves as being left out of this 'recovery' but fail to realize that in reality, every normal, average U.S citizen is in the same boat.
You are quite right in that observation. I would say a good 80% of the population has that misconception that 'it must be on the upswing'.
This is not confined to the lumpen proletariat either. I know far too many seemingly otherwise intelligent professionals under the same illusions though they have nagging doubt I suspect.
At some point reality and fundamentals will re assert themselves - and when it does it will it'll make the South Seas & Tulp Bubbles look like slow motion. I can't see how this lasts much longer.
Americans are trained to react positively to the cost of labor or housing rising and to ignore that everything else is getting more expensive too. That they're making double what their parents did at the same stage of their careers is seen as a sign that all is well, while the cost of food or gas quadrupling during that same period is either studiously ignored or blamed on 'gouging'.
Keeping stocks and houses rising is a very large part of the charade we live in. Hence the desperation to keep those numbers going up, up, up. Down would be bad for the junta.
I ran an ad for an employee for $8.50 per hour. I got 79 resumes the 1st day. I interviewd 6 people. The second one told me he would work for $7.50 if that would help get him the job. 28 yrs old, degree from a state U. Degree in pyschology. Hahahaha
Kid isn't too bright. He can get on food stamps, section 8 housing and a myriad of other government dole programs and make much more than $7.50 per hour.
Pretty hard for a white 28 yr old male to get approved for all that.
You're laughing now, but that guy is not going to have kids, nor is he going to buy a car, a house, rent an apartment, buy health insurance, or anything. And he is certainly, absolutely, not going to contribute to paying down the US debt.
Neither are the 78 other people applying for the job.
So future demand for whatever goods or services you sell will be lower and your business may struggle to find customers one day. The problem is that this is a global epidemic, not an anecdotal one. Think saving your assets will help you? Greece stock market is down 90% since their crash. Japan down 75%. Low wages lead to low birth rates, and low birth rates destroy everything.
If I've learned one thing in life, it's to never laugh at another human's misfortune.
And who knows, maybe you will get sick and need blood donated, or a liver, a kidney, a lung. Steve Jobs had $9 billion net worth and it didn't save him.
Since when is it an expansion with over 250k new unemployment claims every week?
we see charts and commentary like this every day - you need to take away that which is supported by qe and rerun your charts and commentary - the u.s. is in a governement managed economy -
the u.s. is in a government managed economy - historic market economy charts and commmentary are meaningless.
Looks like we are only getting warmed up! Anyone foolish enough to still be short here is going to be in for a world of pain when this bull market really gets its legs.
Can QE4EVA really preserve an infinite YOD growing market?
It's scary because 60% of our country only cares about that stupid fucking number.