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What Happened The Last Time The Market Was This Far Ahead Of Strategists' Expectations?
With less than 6 weeks left to the end of the year, the S&P 500 has reached its "richest" nominal price relative to the average Wall Street strategist's forecast. The last time the 'market' over-reached like this was in mid-May, right before the exuberance of a non-taper-believing investor-class was popped (oh so briefly).
JPMorgan's Tom Lee (at 1825) has the highest forecast and Wells Frago's Gina Martin Adamas (at 1,440) the lowest.
This year has seen the market rich and remain rich to strategist forecasts by the most in the last 10 years...
Source: Bloomberg
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BTFATH
BATHFAT
Gina Martin Adamas with her ES 1,440 call in Sept 2013 on CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101049191
Is she a M. Whitney wannabe or a ZH reader?
Amazing that WFC keeps her on in institutional equity: she sounds like a flakey party girl.
There must be a few endowment and pension funds really pissed about her right now.
Dow 17500 by December 31?
I predict SPY 181 +/-6 by then. Not sure how that translates to the DOW.
Not being cocky...simply re-created Tyler's LINEST model on the SPY-Fed BS and read the chart, which has been infallible since QEternity (trademark to ZH) began in earnest nearly a year ago.
How many are we on Zerohedge? Many.
However, we are very bad at coordinating our efforts.
My proposal is that all on here get extremely Bullish on Twitter. Post Bullish comments, often.
Why? Because the dopeheads do in fact monitor Twitter today to get investor sentiment; and their wet dream is to rip the faces of realists everyday as to psychologically prevent any selling in the future.
[ Leave any bearish comments out, unless you are a Bernanke Fanboy ]
Heck, Tyler himself could probably sink the markets by "turning bull"
Bullish Tylers? What a sight for sore eyes that would be.
Probably see it on the rat meat market post collapse.
Tweet, tweeter, tweet, tweet. There you have it, my monthly contribution to my twitter account.
I'm pretty sure we didn't have 85 billion in securities being bought by the fed ten years ago.
We had in May though
Suckers sold in May. Those of us who knew the fed was full of shit bought the dip. The market is a policy tool and is long as it's a policy tool the direction is up. Having said that, don't play unless it's money you are willing to lose. Because when they are ready to pull the rug out of this pig it will vaporize in a nano-second.
Hey Doc, good to see you. I barely see you at these times but only mostly throughout the day (US) when I rarely post. I see you almost never on the weekends. Hope you're enjoying them.
It's good to see you too. Life has been busy lately, and it's difficult to do much more than read the articles and some of the comments. I hope life is treating you good, and this shit doesn't weigh too heavily on your mind.
It's all good here and hope you are being treated well as well. I hope it's a good 'busy'.
Weighing heavily? Not so much, fortunately as the 'comfortably numb' realization is taking hold.
What is that realization?
That, from my LINEST post above, the market will continue to march along the Fed's printing line, barring any catastrophe. To boot, when I look at the 'line', evidence shows that the Fed is using forward guidance to manage the rise, not too fast, not too slow, but within a reasonable range from the printing line.
All the while, the economy goes South.
It's really quite sad to see hyperinflation in the assets the upper echelon partake in: stocks, bonds, classic cars, diamonds, art, etc. while the masses are becoming worse off.
That's troubling.
My great grandparents, who lived through the Great Depression, told me when I was young to never borrow, to never take on debt. I took the lesson to heart, never knowing why at the time.
But, from what I am witnessing, I truly understand what they meant. It's a death trap.
Be well, Doc.
Hey, hows bout you and me go in the back room and do a couple lInes?
You're not still trying to diffuse that Iranian nuclear bomb are ya, he's not heavy, he's my brother.
20,000 by Marcj 31, They will hit the gas in Jan. Right before they take over the toilet paper factories
just looked at futures.
wow, dow is - 7, this sell off tomm is going to be backpage news on saturday.
-7 dow pts, wow, this market is so fucking real and not manipulated whatsoever.
Sounds legit.
Small POMO tomorrw. Probably a little slide into the weekend (<1%).
I'm sick of these types of posts. Never before has the Federal Reserve been printing 1 trillion a year either. Don't we get it by now. The market will not crash until the dollar and society collapse. The Fed has chosen to throw the US dollar under the bus and now we wait. This is why it seems so excruciating for everyone, waiting for that big crash to short. We are no longer waiting for a market crash, we are now waiting for the US dollar crash. This is going to be a horribly and painfully slow process. There certainly may be some wildish swings in the market but it's up until bust. The psycopaths are in the final throes of extracting the remaining scraps of wealth from the US economy. It's so blatantly obvious now. Print money, direct it into US equities, the rich and powerful share portfolios skyrocket, they exit, gradually or all at once, it doesn't matter because there Fed is there to prop the market up again. They convert their paper wealth to hard commodoties like real estate, art, fast cars, diamonds, gold, silver, antiques.
They're wealth is safely tucked away in assets that won't lose value, then, eventually, the US dollar dies and they go onto to make the biggest killing in the history of the world, figuratively and even possibly literally. This is why everyone bleating about low PM prices just don't understand what is going on. In the curtrent environment, you never sell your PM's. Maybe not for another decade. It's funny so many people take the step to protect their wealth and are then champing at the bit to convert the gold back to fiat. This is schizophrenic thinking. Keep stacking and don't look back. Currency is dying and it sure as hell isn't worth risking your PM's to get more of something that is dying.
buy up while the dollars still got reserve value because the party wont last
". It's so blatantly obvious now. Print money, direct it into US equities, the rich and powerful share portfolios skyrocket"
When it it so blatantly obvious, is when it comes to an end, as everyone jumps in.
We buy stocks on their present and future ability to generate income from dividends, and value them accordingly. But all this is now totally irrelevant.
The price of stocks are far far iin excess of the dividends they might return... the figures that they do produce are a gross lie, with their future looking even bleaker.
Catepillar having such bad results is the writing on the wall for all...everything is slowing dow again quickly. So the bad value that stocks are now will get even worse because we got the signal that the economy is going backwards again....even if the govt stats are all bull.
Stocks are being bought for capital gains, the belief they will go up, and that they have lots of cheap money lying around and nowhere else to put it.
If the money starts to be squeezed, or the risk in stocks so great even with cheap money in their pockers, somebody decides to think differently....You can imagine this thing will drop faster than an avalanche. When index reaches 20,000 people will be looking at each other....and suddenly one will break for the door...
Mountaiins of cash will be looking for a safe home.
Printing QE and turning the stock market higher and higher...at some stage will look a bit zimbabwe-ish... and an index at 100,000 the investors wont be feeling rich..they will be scared.
The "Free Market" ... Plus or minus a few (well timed) Billion a Day to keep the algos on plane for the next All Time High.
Embarrassing really, "just look at this Market"... Its on fire.
Eagerly awaiting a spectacular crash