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Hugh Hendry Capitulates: "Can't Look At Himself In The Mirror" As He Throws In The Towel, Turns Bullish

Tyler Durden's picture


"I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends."

      - Hugh Hendry

First David Rosenberg, then Jeremy Grantham, and now Hugh Hendry: one after another the bears are throwing in the towel.

As Investment Week reports, speaking at Harrington Cooper's 2013 conference this morning, Hugh Hendry said "he is no longer fighting the two-way feedback loop which is continuing to boost risk assets." The reflexive feedback loop envisioned by Hendry is the following and centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, "in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom. Hendry said this creates a "global supply glut", leading to falling US inflation expectations (as this supply far outweights US domestic demand) - which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Rinse. Repeat.

Of course, there is a limitation here as we have explained previously, namely the amount of "high-quality collateral" which the Fed and the other central banks can and are rapidly soaking up, in the process destroying bond market liquidity, but that "discovery" will be made by the Fed far too late, despite even the repeated warnings of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee.

And since Hendry is constrained by daily, monthly and annual P&L, he simply does not have luxury of waiting for the "fat tail" event, which incidentally will be quite terminal and thus hardly profitable for anyone exposed to fiat-denominated assets.

So the end result is that Hugh Hendry is merely the latest bear to throw in the towel:

"I can no longer say I am bearish. When markets become parabolic, the people who exist within them are trend followers, because the guys who are qualitative have got taken out," Hendry said.

"I have been prepared to underperform for the fun of being proved right when markets crash. But that could be in three-and-a-half-years' time."

"I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends."

So what does the newly christened "bull" like?

Though he first began turning more positive on the likes of US and Japanese equities last year, Hendry suggested this morning the current environment created more counter-intuitive opportunities. "This applies to European banks, Greek equities, Spanish equities. You have got to be in things that are trending," he said.


The manager's Eclectica Absolute Macro fund had a 64% value at risk equity allocation in September, up from 45% in August, with December 2013 Japanese TOPIX index futures his biggest single holding on a VaR basis.


Addressing attendees this morning, Hendry said his comments would take on a "confessional" tone, and admitted his performance over the past year had been "at best, mediocre". Hendry's CF Eclectica Absolute Macro fund has lost 2.6% in the nine months to 30 September, according to the firm.

In other words the "dash for trash" mentality, which we predicted in September 2012 when we forecast that the most shorted stocks would outperform the market (and they have), has just won another convert. That, and of course, Fed-balance sheet induced momentum chasing, in which the only thing that matters is one's view how many "assets" the Fed will hold at any point in the future (see from April: "Bernanke & Kuroda Capital LLC: Overweight S&P 500, 2013 Target 1950").

Finally, Hendry's "come to Bernanke" moment does not come easily:

The manager acknowledged his changing stance may be viewed by some investors as a 'top of the market' signal, but said he is not concerned by the prospect of a crash.


"I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate. You are well within your rights to say ‘sell'. The S&P 500 is up 30% over the past year: I wish I had thought this last year."


"Crashing is the least of my concerns. I can deal with that, but I cannot risk my reputation because we are in this virtuous loop where the market is trending."

Sadly, his last statement is just the latest confirmation that in the New Centrally-Planned Normal, FOMO  or Fear of Missing Out (the trend, the media appearance, the herd, the year end bonus, you name it) is indeed the new POMO as we warned in May.

And like that, everyone is now on the same side of the boat.


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Fri, 11/22/2013 - 13:58 | 4181449 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Good... another contrary indicator.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:01 | 4181462 Mark Carney
Mark Carney's picture

Time to go short!


Thanks for the contrarian indicator Mister Henry...actually I will wait for Mister Bass to go bullish, then I'll short.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:03 | 4181485 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

BUY GOLD, Bitch...

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:03 | 4181490 flacon
flacon's picture

Once everybody is on the same side, they will RAMP THE SHIT OUT OF IT just for fun, just before the crash. 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:16 | 4181518 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



"Crashing is the least of my concerns. I can deal with that, but I cannot risk my reputation because we are in this virtuous loop where the market is trending."


- Hugh Hendry

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:20 | 4181568 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

hehehehehheheheeh.......watta putz.....bend over Hugh and prepare for your masters to double butt rape you when this ends............

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:34 | 4181637 sixsigma cygnus...
sixsigma cygnusatratus's picture

So this is what we've come to.  In the land of the blind, the blindest man is king...

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:37 | 4181653 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Or a president who THINKS he's king!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:47 | 4181693 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

"Throws In The Towel..."

If we learned only one thing from Hitchhickers Guide to the Universe it is this, NEVER GIVE UP YOUR TOWEL.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:59 | 4181736 Occident Mortal
Occident Mortal's picture

Someone send him this chart...

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:04 | 4181759 Scarlett
Scarlett's picture

HYPERINFLATION is what's trending

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:33 | 4181872 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

Perversely, he throws in the towel just before he gets soaked.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:50 | 4181932 fuu
fuu's picture

Aww Hugh you are no longer so sexy.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:52 | 4181943 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Exactly.  Its an either/or. 

Either the market crashes, or the currency continues to be devalued.   If the currency devaluation continues, then the market will crash in terms of purchasing power, but not in nominal terms.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:39 | 4182112 eatthebanksters
eatthebanksters's picture

After years of watching ridiculous loans being made in the real estate market and watching the bubble grow, I let my guard down and said, wow - what do I really know, maybe THIS IS the new normal.  That was n 2006.  By the end of 2008 I lost 75% of my net worth and the only reason I had anything left is because I utilized very low leverage.

Hugh Hendry's words worry is after we are lulled into a false sense of confidence that the lightning bolt comes out of nowhere and knocks the shit out of us.  Its coming kids...just like Michael Burri had to hang onto his RMBS CDS for a few extra years, the writing is on the wall....there is no if, its only when.  My best guess is they will print to infinity and the distribution of wealth will be skewed in a way that Soros, Dimon, Blankfein and the rest of Obama's masters want.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:38 | 4182337 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture
"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
- John Maynard Keynes
"Don't fight the Fed"
"Doesn't matter who is right when Fed has the capacity to print trillions and you have only millions"
Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:46 | 4182477 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

You think this U turn has anythign to do with Yellen being confirmed?

Super elite families have decided to pump more and gave the printing press to the Dove. Don't fight super elite families. They outlast governments, booms, industries....


Catholicism was proven wrong by Martin Luther 600 years ago and guess what, the Church is still in control with separate bank, separate soverignty, etc. 


600 years from now, half of the world would have moved on from printing presses, but the other half (current communist countries) will be engaging in QE for the first time as they mature through capitalism.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:26 | 4182580 FearLess_FLY
FearLess_FLY's picture

to Aldous H  ; I always look forward to your comments. Keeping a fresh mind on principles and goals are good. I try not toget swept up in the emotionalism so prevalent here (though I do appreciate the unadulterated rantings here) . . Being economically endeared to my progenyand theirs does guide me.  God help us all.


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:07 | 4182657 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

Hugh has been wrong the past few years for thinking rationally and with common he will continue his wrong ways because hes basically herding into the markets with the retail investors. If i were invested in his fund...i will Gtfo asap...but the better thing for hugh to do now is to close his fund and return the capital back to investors...i though hugh was smart but not anymore.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 22:04 | 4182735 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

First Kyle Bass buying 5% of JCP, now Hugh Hendry throwing in the towel.....

Just remember the Zimbabwe stock market had many 200%+ up DAYS, 30% up in a year is just the beginning.  More beans, bullets and bullion getting ahead of the curve day by day, pail by pail, troy oz by troy oz.  Worrying about how much paper you have in an account is for for fools, unless it's toilet paper.  "If you can't stand in front of it and defend it with an AR-15, you don't own it." Ann Barnhardt

Mon, 11/25/2013 - 07:44 | 4183229 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

The buck stopped with Truman. The buck Ends with Ben.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:56 | 4182755 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 but the better thing for hugh to do now is to close his fund and return the capital back to investors...i though hugh was smart but not anymore.

Hugh is smart. So I guess he just doesn't feel ready to retire yet.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:48 | 4182489 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

I got a pocket full of $1's.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:21 | 4182683 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Gamblers cannot keep folding in fear of whatthey believe to be the bad hand they are holding. Eventually they all have to raise, its in their blood.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 23:54 | 4183084 logically possible
logically possible's picture

Oldwood, key word in your comment "gamblers"

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 00:52 | 4183130 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

Here is a simple trading (aka. gambler) desk interview question:

1) Should you pay $1 to play a game where you have 50/50 chance of winning $10?

Yes, risk/reward is worth it. $10 x 50% = $5 expected reward > $1 loss risk


2) Should you pay $1 to play a game where you have 50/50 chance of winning $2?

No, because at best it is 50/50 at worst you have consecutive losses where you can't recover and house always have deeper pockets than you. 


Fed is the house who can print money at will. You are the gambler in the game. Banks are dealers who get commission of total volume of traffic, but sometimes and recently they saw bunch of lucky pro gamblers (hedge funds) have a winning streak, so they decided to play the game as well. And they failed and got bailed out because casino owner needs dealers working to operate.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 00:57 | 4183136 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

I'm with ya. I experienced the same. But I disagree on your premise they will simply 'hyper', before interludes of massive 'corrections', if only to trim more cream of the pie..while they hyper. It's called letting the little peeps die off and beg.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:45 | 4182138 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

I guess I might have trouble believing him next time.     Assuming there is a next time.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:01 | 4181739 Stackers
Stackers's picture

"The market can stay irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent"


egads, I just quoted Keynes on the ZH




please dont ban me Tyler.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:16 | 4181811 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Now Batting....High Hendry

On deck......Kyle Bass

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:17 | 4182425 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

if he's stuck with his yen trade then he's knocked the ball out of the park. Plus nothing says "railroads" like Texas...let alone the port facility in Houston, Texas which is truly massive. Can silver go down even further here? Absolutely. it still looks far undervalued relative to gold. no counter party risk in that asset class either.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:14 | 4182670 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Probably why he's down only 2.6% YTD and not more.

"To really screw things up, it takes the government."  This is the mother of all bubbles because it's not just the government looking away as the banks do bad things, it's the Fed and all of government doing it themselves, on purpose, by design with the cooperation of those self-same banks.  When this one goes, there will be nothing but wasteland.  But it could take a very long time.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:05 | 4182538 asteroids
asteroids's picture

To Hugh, "Illegitimi non carborundum"

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 09:31 | 4183336 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Literally translated, it means 'Don't let the bastards grind you down' :-)

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:19 | 4181819 Goyim Sheep
Goyim Sheep's picture

He should ban you for saying egads.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:35 | 4181882 Uncle Sugar
Uncle Sugar's picture

He should ban you for your horrific avatar.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:27 | 4182067 Stackers
Stackers's picture

triple G in the manzere. Jealous ?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:26 | 4182310 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

WAIT....MANZERE!!!  I thought your avatar was a Chunky Russian Broad trolling for her Boris...

Holy Fuck...Triple G really????

Fuck I need my eyes washed out!!!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 21:51 | 4182888 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Manzere or the Bro?   Either way it looks like you beat anorexia. 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:51 | 4182746 s2man
s2man's picture

+1 for the Seinfeld reference.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:26 | 4182063 Incubus
Incubus's picture

I can't picture a grown man saying "egads."

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:59 | 4182190 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I looked at his avatar and uttered the same exclamation, saw yours and doubled down.  It is a versatile word.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:23 | 4182292 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Incubus you could say that again, and again,,,,and again,

Your avatar is helping wash my mind and eyes please say it again...and again


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:57 | 4182763 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Given that the name is 'incubus'... you may get a bit of a surprise when 'she' turns around.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 01:01 | 4183141 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Thanks Jim....Back to the Bottle...need more washing now

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 02:47 | 4183210 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

First its a towel,
A type of sheet.
Then a gag.
To wipe the blood, jizz and ass.
So out the car door you go.
Ripped and alone
On the wet of dark street.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:58 | 4181734 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Is there a term for a bear who finally capitulates like Hendry now has?

How about 'honey bear' - like Pooh, sitting there with his face in a pot-o-honey provided by someone else, mumbling 'I know this isn't right, I know I shouldn't, I know this won't end well for me, but 'mmm mmmm mmmmmm'' ...

Hugh 'Honey Bear' Hendry

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:12 | 4181785 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

Quick. Somebody send old Hugh the Pater Tenebrarum article.

     Circular Bubble Logic 

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 03:17 | 4183218 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

it grieves me to see HughGoLong...but he seems to have learned the Bananamerican dictum: "In the land of the Blind, the One-eyed man is LAME"

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:23 | 4181583 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

I'll pray to god everyday that someone puts a bullet in that smug face.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:30 | 4181612 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Same arrogant smirk on Evans and Dudley. These banksters get satisfaction in proving their always smarter.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:33 | 4181630 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

As well as most of our political class.  Just waiting for the day when someone with nothing left to lose, looses it.

That one is for you Knucks!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:07 | 4182228 YC2
YC2's picture

cmon man, you spelled it right and then spelled it wrong, immediately after, in bold

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:33 | 4182327 CCanuck
CCanuck's picture

Lucen up man, do you chews to luse, or loose to chooze?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:45 | 4182351 YC2
YC2's picture

Your right - its Friday, tyme to get lose.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 21:57 | 4182898 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

"I'll pray to god everyday that someone puts a bullet in that smug face."

I am always on the look out for a good photo to paste on the faceless targets they sell at the gun shop, this one will do just fine.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:59 | 4182769 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 cmon man, you spelled it right and then spelled it wrong, immediately after, in bold

There's losing it, which refers to your emotions... and there's loosing it... which might just refer to a projectile.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 22:23 | 4182940 YC2
YC2's picture

Good point, didnt think of that.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 01:45 | 4183173 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Therein lies the joke.  It was a friendly jab at Knucks.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 23:46 | 4184706 YC2
YC2's picture

haha whoops missed that completely

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 08:38 | 4183315 FightingtheFed
FightingtheFed's picture

It's very vulgar.. I say dig a deep ditch.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:33 | 4181625 Tim Knight from...
Tim Knight from Slope of Hope's picture


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:24 | 4182439 teolawki
teolawki's picture

I agree!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 21:12 | 4182794 bunzbunzbunz
bunzbunzbunz's picture

I know, I'm worthless, but if you want to get some free bitcoins just in case the skyrocket:

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:01 | 4181647 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

It's very telling that Hendry calls what the Fed is doing a "virtuous loop".  His problem is most likely perspective; from the belly of the beast, all he can see is rising stock prices and all he can hear is the anguished howls of his clients.  If here were as far away as Marc Faber, he might have a different view. Or maybe not.

In any case, the scam remains the same: The Fed can add $50 trillion to the money supply this year, and it will not add a single iota of additional purchasing power.  All it will do is shift more purchasing power away from the people who buy gasoline and groceries and give it to the people who buy stocks and bonds. That means the increasing financialization of the economy; we will produce substantially more paper investments and substantially less of the things people really need.

Hendry has put himself in a bad position; he must dance in the whorehouse to suit his clients, even if he doesn't approve of the establishment.  None of this bothers me, because I have nothing of the kind of investments the Fed is inflating. I closed out my brokerage accounts in 2007, just ahead of the collapse. My "investments" are now immovable things like a house on a mountain with its own well and electricity, and property beyond the reach of the looters.  It takes however long it takes; in the meantime, life goes on.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:16 | 4181806 aardvarkk
aardvarkk's picture

I wish I wish I wish my wife and daughter and I were your neighbors up on that mountain.  The only better thing to me would be to be on a boat in the tropics with a large hold and a sturdy watermaker.  I'm not too close to any major population centers, but I think it's still going to get ugly here before we're done.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:49 | 4182490 Imminent Crucible
Imminent Crucible's picture

Aardvarkk, I wish you and your family were up here as much as you do. I don't have enough like-minded neighbors as it is, and I'm in the mtns of North Carolina, a beautiful place but full of EBT zombies and governed by a bunch of looters who never met a tax they didn't like.  While my situation is fairly self-sufficient (my own water, power, heat (3 acres of woodlot), etc,, it would be easy enough for the state to simply tax me out of here. While I own everything free and clear, my income is modest.

Don't think I haven't thought of the boat idea. I spent last winter on the harborfront at La Paz, BCS and calculated whether it made sense to brush up on my sailing skills and switch from U.S. property to the maritime life.  If things go full zombie, it would be good to spin the tiller for the Southern Cross until the chaos settles down.  It's sure to get ugly when the Fed finally shreds all confidence in the USD. Like Hendry says, it could be several years.  Then again, things can go wrong with blinding speed.  You just have to be ready for it to go south any time.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:12 | 4182248 safe as milk
safe as milk's picture

i have been winding down my investments for the past couple of years, i will close my brokerage account soon. my retirement accounts are in physical gold. still, i can't run away to the mountains and wait for this insanity to end. i'm not a financial professional so i do have the luxury of stepping back which apparently hugh hendry does not. meanwhile, my freelance billing is declining due to the poor economy and i'm taking a hard look at where i can cut back on expenses. it's not pretty.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:44 | 4181686 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Where's the Red Army Faction when America needs them.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:28 | 4182448 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I do find it interesting no war has broken out yet. Apparently this is how the world wants to play this game. The only ones that have done any fighting "full on"...twelve years running I might add...are the Americans. I find it interesting that as we "withdraw" we appear to be doing more fighting as well.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 21:05 | 4182781 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Despite people's fortunes going south, there are still too few who genuinely have nothing left to lose.

Anyway... let's say you suddenly find yourself sleeping in your car. Exactly how do you go and 'give it to the man'? How are you ever going to get close enough to Ben or Barry? These fuckers have a very efficient praetorian escort that ensures nothing untoward happens to our betters.... unless, of course, someone else equally high-up decides they need to go.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 01:41 | 4183171 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

Where there's a will there's a way.  As has been stated before, all it usually takes is someone willing to trade their life.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 03:26 | 4183221 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You don't need to get to those people, they are not the real movers and shakers.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 18:13 | 4184039 ZH11
ZH11's picture

Michael Corleone: If anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it is that you can kill anyone.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:41 | 4181904 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Holy shit!  If you're going to post a picture don't post that ugly ass criminal motherfuckers face. 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 22:06 | 4182903 sgorem
sgorem's picture

by the looks of it, Ben's new "pet" Gerbil is acting a bit frisky at the moment. his old "pet" Gerbil was pronounced D.O.A., and confiscated by the Deming, N.M. police department, along with the local hospital clinicians after a routine traffic stop..................................

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 22:40 | 4182975 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Jesus, I would really like to have five minutes alone in a large closet with this fool. The urge to bitch slap his stupid mug is overwhelming.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 02:31 | 4183198 prains
prains's picture

...and you will toil in the universe forever, good bye



take your cock sandwich with you

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:12 | 4181535 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

"Hendry's 'come for Bernanke' moment arrived when he finally put a poster of the fed chair on his ceiling, knocked back a bottle of shevitz, and capitulated to the bearded asset purchaser"

everything about that entire scene is terrible

which poster did he use?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:04 | 4181491 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Hugh Hendry is my man. The man who has seen the light. Come fellow profiteer. I am rolling in dough, thanks to Bernanke and Yellen.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:44 | 4181648 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

A smart man will adapt and choose to benefit, in spite of nagging misgivings. He is pragmatic, balanced and sensible above all things.  He has a Learning Ability.

An emotional man will stubbornly stick to his ways, with near-religious zeal/fanaticism.  He is dogmatic, unbalanced and irrational.  He has a Learning Disability.

Decide which you are, and live accordingly.

p.s. I'm reducing my PM from 30% down to 20% at the next "updraft" in the Gold/PM Sideways market, and pursuing "other" investment vehicles.  I already lost (missed) a fortune by selling quality stock for PM (due to ZH), and missed a 6-figure gain when I almost* bought BTC last April. 

* Had the printout for 200 BTC @ $100, but did not go to Western Union, due to other 'priorities' and the "round tuit" syndrome.

Listen up millionaire Bears: "Fool me once..."

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:23 | 4181774 oddjob
oddjob's picture

A smart man won't measure his own wealth in paper chits issued by a private bank with religious biases.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:41 | 4181843 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I agree completely.  But... I'm merely stating that a re-balancing of the Portfolio is called for from time to time, so as to not miss out on riding wind currents like a bird.  Heck, even a bird(brain) knows that these won't last forever, but long enough to be of benefit.  <--- Momentum trading?

BTW, I submit that holding 20% in PM is plenty, and is way more than what 98% of the population is holding.  And I'm holding 0.001% in BTC as of last week.  I think I can live with BTC risk of 5% exposure.  Like most, if Bitcoin does go way up, I intend to trade it for real assets:  Land!  I love land way more than I love PM.  But I like spare fiat for lifestyle too.  Balance, perspective.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:24 | 4182055 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

98% dont have any PM exposure. There, fixed it for you.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:29 | 4182450 silverserfer
silverserfer's picture

get land with gold deposits on it!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:55 | 4182180 Debugas
Debugas's picture

A smart man will diversify

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:17 | 4181809 Fiat Burner
Fiat Burner's picture

"I already lost (missed) a fortune by selling quality stock for PM (due to ZH)"

A weak man will blame a blog for the decisions he made with his own free will.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:06 | 4182000 halfawake
halfawake's picture

+ ZH "predicted in September 2012 when we forecast that the most shorted stocks would outperform the market (and they have)"

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:31 | 4181851 Running On Bing...
Running On Bingo Fuel's picture

So ZH fuck'ed you with gold and now you want them to fuck you harder with bitCon's? How much pain do you like?

I'm just seeking clarity.

If you want to just hand over all your money to me I will not object. I can smack you around a little bro.


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:33 | 4181871 Derf Scratch
Derf Scratch's picture

Good plan, you can have 3 shares of AMZN, or 4 shares of NFLX, or 2.5 shares of Chipotle burritos for an ounce of gold! It's a no brainer!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:13 | 4182020 Col_Sanders
Col_Sanders's picture

Upped you because you should always up Derf Scratch!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:50 | 4181933 ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

"I already lost (missed) a fortune by selling quality stock for PM (due to ZH)"

There is nothing more despicable than a man who blames others for his decisions. 


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:35 | 4182101 Kayman
Kayman's picture


"If you can keep your head when all about you. Are losing theirs and blaming it on you, If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you" ... - Rudyard Kipling

Spend less time listening to the beating drum, more time understanding that money is a means not an end, and that a country can prosper without a Central Bank but no Central Bank has ever prospered without a country.

Be through the exits before the crowd turns.

ps. Another clue- BlackRock is flogging Mutual Funds on ZH. Ya can't go wrong- sell hard assets and buy all the paper promises you can?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:54 | 4182512 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

...and if Guru Hugh has produced mediocre returns these past few years, maybe,,,just maybe, he can maintain that track record with this 180 degree change of heart? And if not, would his "followers" blame him, or this venue for their short comings?


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 23:32 | 4183069 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

The part I find slightly ironic, and honestly frightening is that everyone that is long the market believes they can get out before the big crash.

Do you really think GS, JPM, et al are going to process your sell orders before theirs ?

Come on people, the HFT algos will bankrupt your ass before you can even log into your account to place a trade. The next crash will be over in 15 minutes and it will be fucking ugly.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:02 | 4182534 HardAssets
HardAssets's picture

A wise man doesn't blame his actions on others

He also doesn't play "If only I bought X back in 19xx, or sold Y in 19xx."


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:37 | 4182603 jusman
jusman's picture

Yes, I too have given up trying to predict, am working at a job I like, where I am valued, and where we make something useful (electrical switchgear).  Am trying (with little success) to sell my house in another city and will rent (the condo market in Toronto for junk is stupidly expensive).  And will just deal with what comes, if it comes, when it comes.  "Why worry - be happy!"  And if TSHTF I will deal with it then.  I bought PM (just a little and for the first time) and have lost 10% on it...oh well.  I would rather apply myself at being happy, enjoying my friends and relationships, working my 45 hours per week, keeping "informed" from mutliple sources on what is going on, but not obsessing on what to do....


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:23 | 4182689 Wahooo
Wahooo's picture

ZH is not an investment advisory site, you know. Right?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 21:09 | 4182789 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I come for the light-hearted banter, myself

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 22:43 | 4182983 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

The perfect indicator to buy PM's; a whinner who's selling out.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:11 | 4181530 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I like Hendry.  I'm still a bear, but not fighting the flow any longer, so I've moved more of my illiquid investments into silver ETF's and gold miners, especially after Fisher's anti-hawkish comments 40 or so days ago, only to watch PM's get monkey-hammered anyway.  That makes NO sense whatsoever given the certainty that Yellen will not only not taper, but will increase QE dramatically.  PM's should be rocketing off the fucking charts.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:23 | 4181580 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  PM's should be rocketing off the fucking charts.

Then you are confusing what the "value" of PM's are.

PM's are nothing but insurance.   When you buy insurance the insurance has NO value unless the insured "event" happens.

Why should PM's have any value now?   If there's a bubble in stocks that means, by definition, most people are expecting the "event" which PM's are insurance FOR isn't going to happen.  

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:31 | 4181620 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Certainly your average sheeple might be able to stumble through your prose and find it informative......but then a simple logic course would conclude you devoid of cogent thought........but please post more

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:43 | 4181680 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

If the fiat currency the PM is being priced in is being debased, which the dollar is, has been and will continue to be, then, by definition or at least calculation, the value of PM's must rise.  What part of that simple mathematical picture do you not understand?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:01 | 4181743 NOTaREALmerican
NOTaREALmerican's picture

Re:  What part of that simple mathematical picture do you not understand?

You are missing the time sequence of EVENTS.  There is no debasement UNTIL it is realized there is debasement.   This is the time sequence NOW.    Most humans don't think there's debasement because IF THEY DID the price of PM would go up which it HASN'T because most humans don't see any debasement.   Period, end of story.

The value of gold you are HOPING for is a time sequence in the FUTURE (what WILL happen).    But, most people do not EVER expect the currency will be debased, therefore gold does NOT have much value until (poof) suddenly it does;  which is why it's like insurance:   it has no value at all UNTIL some future time sequence and AND IF some "event" happens THEN its value changes massively. 

What you want is some sort of magic gold price that reflects the FUTURE realization of debasement based on YOUR expections instead of most humans expectations.   But that's what a gold market is for: you buy gold expecting a future value that others don't agree with. 

You should be happy gold is falling in price.  It means you will be rewarded more if you keep buy it (assuming "the event" does happen).

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:27 | 4181848 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture


Most Americans don't even know what debasement is..., and, no, it's not where your stupid kid spends his days.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:00 | 4181977 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Oops..., I must have hit a nerve.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:46 | 4182141 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Debasement is when you're putting on your Chinese Wall-Mart shirt and all the buttons pop off the first time you try to put it on.  The good news though, is you have to buy another shirt and some slave laborer in China continues to accept Bernanke bucks for another "shirt"

The best kind of modern symbiosis- Everyone trying to fuck Everyone else.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:07 | 4182542 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Thats planned obsolescence, but sure, it is the most visible symptom of debasement, because if a company can't reduce the price of the goods they sell, you can be damn sure they will try to reduce the cost/quality.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 21:13 | 4182796 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Geez, the guy is rich enough to buy a shirt with buttons, and he's complaining?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:08 | 4182235 Pemaquid
Pemaquid's picture

At one time not to long ago, debasement and consequent inflation would have been guaranteed when the printing presses were in high gear. Now, with TPTB controlling everything through corrupt market manipulations, they are able to depress prices of just about everything. Except, of course, stocks and housing.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:13 | 4182018 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

@notrealamerican.......So pretell this poor unwashed peep.......WHY did gold rip over 800% in the early 80s........there was no currency debasement or crisis..........and WHY did gold rise from 260 bucks to over 1900 bucks a couple of years ago.....did we default.......did the dollar my dear friend need to find another group to drop your poooooh on.......I will give you a hint.......just by your physical while you can and then you might be able to take that single gold coin you bought and have yourself a great bottle of wine and a room at the Ritz with a realuly nice "girl"............

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 22:46 | 4182992 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Nothing is more useless than a loaded pistol; until the day you have to have it; and nothing else will do.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:36 | 4182052 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

"If the fiat currency the PM is being priced in is being debased, which the dollar is, has been and will continue to be, then, by definition or at least calculation, the value of PM's must rise.  What part of that simple mathematical picture do you not understand?"

Define "value."  If value is quantified in USD, this is obviously a flawed theory, and not law.

You say A (the fiat currency the PM is being priced in is being debased)

therefore (by definition)

B (value of PM's must rise).

A is happening but B is not (in USD).  In fact, B has turned around for the moment while A is increasing by $85B per month.  So, that's the part of that "simple mathematical picture" I'm not understanding.  What we think should happen is not necessarily what happens, unfortunately.  "Value" of anything, sans true survival needs, is perceived.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:58 | 4182197 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Trucker Glock

Or alternate theory- you are a Too-Big-To-Fail Bank and you have $500 billion "worth" of toilet paper listed on your balance sheet.  Your pal at the Fed (after all, you are technically his boss) recognizes your dilemna and offers to purchase your little problem at face value.  So he prints you $500 billion new US dollars-FRN's (or clicks "enter" on his keyboard) and you are made whole.

No change in money supply. This will continue until all the shit is off the TBTF books or Ma and Pa have bought in to the inflate-paper-assets program, whichever comes first.  

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:11 | 4182554 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

And after the dollar evaporates, like many fiat instruments before it, the 4000 + year old medium will be re-valued in some other form of credit. What's a decade here or there in a "price?"


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:28 | 4182073 SDShack
SDShack's picture

Why do people believe the PM market is reacting to normal market forces, when those same people believe every other financial market is being manipulated by TPTB & Elites? If logic dictates the TPTB & Elites are manipulating the financial and stock markets for their own gain, then they are manipulating the PM markets as well. JPM & Silver ring a bell?  And when TPTB can't rig the markets, they will hold a gun to your head, and make you say 1+1=3. FDR and Nixon did. The ENTIRE game is rigged.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:37 | 4182107 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

Spot on, IMO.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:34 | 4181633 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

unlimited chips on one side and your paltry stash on the other.  You lose all the time.  have you never played poker

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:51 | 4181712 Loose Caboose
Loose Caboose's picture

Another way of saying this, and I forget who said it, is "the market can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent." 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:05 | 4181764 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture



Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:04 | 4181494 vxpatel
vxpatel's picture

i thought that at 11,000

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:09 | 4181525 docinthehouse
docinthehouse's picture

Good for you!

I'm not there yet!

One more turn of the vise !!!!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:05 | 4181500 knukles
knukles's picture

I'm gonna go have my anal glands expressed and prostate massaged before I loose it completely.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:46 | 4181925 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I  highly recommend prostate massage during auto erotic asphxiation.

Nothing can match being found dead, hanging in the closet, with ones own figure up ones ass !!!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:41 | 4182125 Trucker Glock
Trucker Glock's picture

Do you find yourself licking the floor non-stop when your glands need expressed?  My beagle does.  It's crazy.  Makes my golden retriever nervous when she does it.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:23 | 4182054 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

Mr. Carney

I will remind you...there was never a good time to be short in the Zimbabwe stock market's historic (and fatal) rise up to 2008.

The only salvation was getting out of that currency. Getting out of the dollar is something so outrageous (and impossible if you are in any paper asset) that no one dares to speak of it, at least in public. One certainly cannot make a living by advising clients into gold it will remain unspoken.

Guys like Faber or those who just advise and don't handle funds could mention it but to the average investor hearing these words would get you labeled a kook.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:36 | 4182333 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture



I am essentially out of the dollar, and have been for quite some time.  When I receive USD, I sell those fuckers as fast as I can.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:21 | 4182569 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Sell/spend.   Like when you spend USD to buy gold, for example. 

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 01:11 | 4183148 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

Hugh, Hugh, Hugh. From "Old Dickson": Laws Absolute. Never completely and at once reverse a position. (...) Should this last change be wrong, complete demoralization ensues. (...) Run Quickly, or not at all. Rules conditional. When in doubt, do nothing.

Cheers, Fish

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:47 | 4181688 Jumbotron
Jumbotron's picture

"Good.....another contrary indicator"

Quite right.  But it is also an indicator simply because it is Hugh's submission to the fact that the trend could last a long time.  We've already seen, thanks to ZeroHedge, that the psyhopaths can and will pull out all stops to keep the bubble inflated.  We haven't seen everything they can do yet.

Yet....when EVERYBODY gets in, including the likes of Hugh, then it truly is an indicator that a top is forming......but as I could be years before it rolls over.

But.....HOLY SHIT......when it does roll's going to be TEOTWAWKI !!!!

I'm still in for around 2020.....I said that years ago when looking at trends simply on the lines of Peak Cheap Energy by 2020 and how cheap energy feeds the tecno-magic lifestyle and culture we live in.  But when you couple the drag from Medicaid, Medicare, VA benefits, SS, interest on the National Debt, the continuing costs of the ETERNAL WAR (war on terrorism), rollover of certain bonds, the next housing collapse, AND NOW Obamacare........2020 is llke a sure thing.

HOWEVER......throw in a Black Swan or two......another terrorist attack / false flag, a bank or two blowing up.......and all bets are off.  2020 is if EVERYTHING stays fairly sane in the world while the psychopaths conduct their schemes.  But the stressors of the above mentioned items will simply be too much BY 2020.....but could be in a couple of years.

But I'm with's not tomorrow or the next year.  The psychopaths have full control and the crack high is feeling too good.  But there will be a PRICE to pay. 

As the intro to Tombstone the movie said......."JUSTICE IS COMING ! "


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:29 | 4181857 DFCtomm
DFCtomm's picture

He made an understandable decision for a money manager. They are pros and have to play in all weather. Me, I'm sitting this one out.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:41 | 4182127 MrButtoMcFarty
MrButtoMcFarty's picture

Memorial Day 2019 is my asshole opinion....


Unless a nuc is triggered.....that would be bullish....




Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:16 | 4182259 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

The only thing they got left is QE.

I guess Yellin could double or triple it.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 21:17 | 4182813 BigJim
BigJim's picture

 But.....HOLY SHIT......when it does roll's going to be TEOTWAWKI !!!!

I'm still in for around 2020.....


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:43 | 4181912 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I am waiting for Marc Faber to go leveraged BULLTARD before I short.  

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:54 | 4182505 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:39 | 4182709 Newager23
Newager23's picture

Hugh always considered himself a contrarian, and for that I admired him. I also admired his brilliance and eloquent way of speaking. However, he is going down the wrong path. Jumping on board this train and going along for the ride will likely be dangerous to his economic health.

It may appear on the surface that the central banks, and especially the Fed, have markets controlled, but it won't take much for the markets to head south. The contrarian play here is gold and silver mining stocks.

Sure they could go lower, but just keep buying the dip. The HUI is at 210, and can't go much lower. Gold is at $1240, and can't go much lower, perhaps $1100, but that won't last long. Most gold producers can’t make a profit at $1100, so it can’t last. My point is that we are close to the bottom in gold prices. Mining stock can’t get much cheaper.

Hugh said (about 2 years ago) that investing in gold and silver mining stocks was insane. That was when the HUI was around 400, so he was right (and would have made a lot of money shorting those stocks). But now they have crashed and the are poised for a rebound. Isn’t this the contrarian investment of the decade?

While the DOW, S&P, and NASDAQ may go higher, what is the upside potential from here? What is he going to gain? The mining stocks could literally explode in value if gold heads higher. In fact, I think you can throw darts at the best ones and make 300%. Many of these stocks are going to be 25 baggers if gold prices take off. And if gold goes to $2500 and stays there, we will see 50 baggers.

I thought Hugh was my contrarian guru, and today is a sad day because I like him. When this market heads south and gold rebounds (I expect an inverse reaction), we are going to see a big move in mining shares. Most gold mining shares are trading as if gold is going to go lower and remain lower. You can buy stocks like Gran Colombia and Sandspring Resources for less than $4 per oz for gold in the ground. It's pretty insane how cheap this sector has become.

NO ONE today wants to own gold and silver mining stocks, but everyone is suddenly bullish on the stock market. Yet the facts all point to the global economy melting by the end of this decade. We are spinning our wheels and watching the middle class shrink. Wealth is not growing for the middle class, but shrinking.

Without an increase in wealth, adding huge amounts of debt to our national debt is insanity. But that is our economic policy. At some point that game comes to an end. And the result is easy to predict: our standard of living has to drop. How does that happen? The dollar has to be devalued. We default on our debt.

I don't need to tell you this, but debt is exploding. Do you really think that the US Govt is going to get its budget in order before things blow? We are playing a game of spend (print) and pretend. We are pretending that things will carry on and we will be okay. I can't believe that Hugh jumped on this train. I look forward to his comments when he jumps off.


Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:37 | 4182714 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

What about Marc Faber? I don't see him changing his mind for anything.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 00:02 | 4183095 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Everything I've believed in, I've had to reject"---No biggie. If you don't do that every three weeks or so nowadays, you're just not keepin up.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 04:48 | 4183250 radsam
Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:00 | 4181451 derek_vineyard
derek_vineyard's picture

find a new profession, mr hendry

perhaps farming

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:12 | 4181531 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

His profession is sort of the point. Makes you wonder what he's doing with his own personal nest egg.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:10 | 4181747 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I may not be crazy about Warren Buffet [caused an immediate rise in blood pressure in some], but I recall him saying in an interview why he chose to be in Omaha, rather than on Wall St.

He did not want to get swayed by the chronic Bulls or chronic Bears.  Rather, he wanted to breathe the fresh, clean air of Facts and Reason -- by sticking to basic principles:  1. Look at corporate Reports and Balance Sheets, 2. Talk to their management, and 3. Evaluate against market trends or opportunities.  Since he LOVES cash, he is attracted to businesses that generate lots of it and pay dividends.  Then they use Cash (not leveraged Debt) to buy more businesses.

This guy is NOT a friend of the pump & dump, churn & burn brokers, dealers and Wall St whores.  He is "rational" and "principled" above all things.

The rational person will realize that it is not about what you "like", but what "works".  I can't speak for you, but I'm finding myself re-relearning these Buffet Basics, and re-learning the immutable laws of Asset Allocation:  DIVERSIFICATION into rational choices and some irrational/trend choices.  Some domestic, most global.  Some speculative or short-term, some long-term.  Some in Primary wealth, some on Secondary wealth, some in Tertiary wealth.

A person can go broke or stay poor equally well by listening to Chronic Bears, as they can by listening to Chronic Bulls.  You must realize that being "Perma-Bulls" or "Perma-Bears" is their M.O.   It makes them rich.  Bull: "Follow me!"  Bear: "No, follow me!"  Both sets of which are millionaires, (a) by catering to different emotional demographics and (b) by using OPM and getting your money.  Wake. Up.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:32 | 4181870 DFCtomm
DFCtomm's picture

Hi Kirk,


If "Buffet basics" doesn't work, then you can always fall back on a radiation cannon.




Fri, 11/22/2013 - 16:53 | 4182176 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

Buffett's probably in Omaha because it was close to Boys Town.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:06 | 4182226 Kayman
Kayman's picture

Buffet Rule #1. Never own a company that must operate in a competitive market.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 13:58 | 4181454 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Tyler - don't forget Jeremy Grantham's semi-capitulation this week of 20%-30% upside here

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:06 | 4181507 knukles
knukles's picture

Yeah, but Jeremy's not throwing in the towel, all in, go for broke, money poop time.  He's saying it's already overdone but not yet over.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:14 | 4181539 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

for Grantham to put a number and a time frame on a gain is capitulation...he is sayin "go ahead, jump in the water for 20%-30% gains, its ok...this market hasn't gone all Pumatech yet"

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