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S&P Closes Above 1800, Posts 7th Consecutive Weekly Increase: Longest Streak Since 2007

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The S&P 500 has now managed the longest weekly winning streak (7 weeks) since May 2007 (when it managed a 9% gain). Off the recent lows, the current run is an impressive 9.6% (for the S&P) with Trannies up 12.5% in the same period. (we hesitate to mention that May 2007's run-up was halted by the first of the structured credit funds imploding) On the week, Trannies and NASDAQ ended back practically unch, Russell 2000 outperformed but the afternoon melt-up in stocks (on the back of more shorts being squeezed) held the S&P above 1,800 close for the first time ever. Bonds rallied (recovering a lot of their mid-week losses), the USD was offered in general (led by EUR strength) but AUD's 2% loss was notable. VIX was manhandled to 12.25% into the close to maintain the headline-grabbing 1,800 as gold and silver clung to their lows.

 

The 7-week winning streak of the S&P 500 in 2007 marked the top...

 

A glance at the lower pane in the following week of data for the S&P 500 says all you need to know... the selling days are heavy volume and the buy days are thin, low volume illiquid meltups...

 

The NASDAQ crept back to unch on the week, Trannies underperformed but the small cap Russell went on another high beta trip to infinity... Just look at the dip-buying frenzy in small caps (blue) after the FOMC minutes were digested...!!

 

As "most shorted" names were tossed around like rag dolls... with the afternoon meltup in broad indices driven by yet further squeezes...

 

 

Led by the all-important EURJPY carry trade... come the fuck on!!!!

 

Treasuries were bid back in the last 2 days recovering most ofthe FOMC minutes losses...

 

The more hedged and saturated credit guys finally threw in the towel and capitulated the last 2 days...

 

Precious metals had a tough week - as oil and copper rose (Fed off, growth on? - not in the data but whatever)...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: The Only chart that counts...

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: A glimpse of the future for the US perhaps? Or are we witnessing the birth of the CaracasCoin (Venezuela's stock index surged 56% in 21 days, then collapsed 20.2% in 10 days and has now spiked 9.75% in the last 2 days...)

 

Is there a CNBC Venezuela?

 

 


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Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:13 | Link to Comment HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

 HIs lis lips.. no bubbles.... except in the champagne - http://hedge.ly/1c7IE91

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:58 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I wrote some code to examine this market.  Here are the results from that study.

I have a function that plots a line for a given CAGR and start date.  The RUT has seen a CAGR of about 24% for over 9 quarters, starting around August of 2011.

I have another function that counts the number of times a given event occurs.  For this simple study, I looked at the number of times the weekly close is greater than the previous week.  I'm using a running window of 52 weeks.

The RUT has seen 37 out of 52 weekly closes that have been greater than the previous week.  My data for RUT goes back to 1991, and this happened only once (not counting last week), for a period back in 97/98.  The RUT sold off after that event from ~487 to ~318.  The long term mean is 30 and the 2 sigma value to the upside is 36.12.  So we are now beyond the two sigma reading.

For the SP500, we get 36 out of 52 weekly closes that have been greater than the previous week.  The long term mean is 30, and the 2 sigma value to the upside is 35.4.  So we are now beyond the two sigma reading.  Back in 2004, the SP500 reached a count of 36.  In 1989 the count reached 39.

I also looked at the count for the DOW Industrial.  The DOW gets an inflated count often throughout history.  I speculate the reason for this is due to the small number of components, and the frequent adjustment to the membership.

The DOW has seen 35 out of 52 weekly closes that have been greater than the previous week (the mean is 30).  This last occurred for the DOW back in 2004, but that was shortly after the bottom in late 2002.  This also occurred in 1996, and the market roared on for 18 quarters after that.  So much for the idea that bubble popping quickly.  If you rode that momo train from 1995 until 2000, you really had 4 quarters to get out with a healthy profit, but chances are that you were hypnotized by the Greenspan's bubble.

The TRAN has an interesting development.  It closed LOWER for the week compared to last week!  The count for this week is 35, while its count was 36 last week.  The mean is 30.5 and 2 sigma is 35.6  The TRAN count hit 36 back in 1987 just prior to the huge sell off.  Then the count hit 36 again in mid-1989 prior to a nice selloff in the TRANs.  The count for the TRAN next hit 36 in late 2004 & early 2005, and the market roared on until 2007.  Go figure.  Finally, the TRAN count hit 36 in the early past of 2011.  You had to wait for a about 5 months before you saw a good sell off.

MSFT: MSFT printed a count of 35 this week, but last week it had a count of 36.  The mean is 27 and 2 sigma is 34.6.  Last week's count of 36 is the highest on record, even counting the dot-com runnup bubble!

Hope you enjoyed this.

 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

Charts man charts, throw 'em up here or something:

http://imgur.com/

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

I would post charts, if I could.  Evidently, I don't have permission to post any images on this site.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:45 | Link to Comment MopWater
MopWater's picture

Make a blog and pimp your site...or at least for your charts.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:16 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Here is some more info

 

Symb, Count, NORM

XLV     41      2.56
XLU     33      2.36
XLI     35      2.16
IWM     36      1.72
XLB     31      1.63
RWR     32      1.61
XLF     32        1.52
WDC     34        2.72
FISV    34        2.57
VOD     32        2.57
MU      37        2.27
ESRX    32        2.24
PCLN    35        2.16
ADP     36        2.16
MSFT    35        2.16
ADSK    32        2.06

 

XLV is the Health-Care ETF.  Its been up 41 of last 52 weeks!!!  If you look at the chart, its a straight line UP since mid 2011.  It has a CAGR of 25% since 8/12/2011.  I guess we know who the real winners are in the Obama-Care tug of war.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

Nice job.  If you employed dummies for durations where there was QE, no QE does that provide any guidance on bubbles popping? 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:09 | Link to Comment rubiconsolutions
rubiconsolutions's picture

What did that fella Isaac Newton say? For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction or something like that? Tiiimmmbbbeeerrr!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:17 | Link to Comment Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

When does the VIX go to Zero? 5% a day so should get there for xmas with these tossers

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

Negative.

I mean, it will turn negative by christmas eve.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

Confidence has to be consolidated. Therefore, markets have to move higher, because FED pumping is for sure.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment The Gooch
The Gooch's picture

Just in time for 2008 redux. Epic extra moar bonus edition.

Let's party!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:18 | Link to Comment El Vaquero
El Vaquero's picture

I fucking hate the Fed. 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:01 | Link to Comment Oracle 911
Oracle 911's picture

I think its mutual.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Bon Hagar
Bon Hagar's picture

I ain't buyin' it.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:20 | Link to Comment Derf Scratch
Derf Scratch's picture

must be about time for another TVIX reverse split

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Obchelli
Obchelli's picture

S&P up  < 0.1% market crash

S&P up 0.1% - 0.5% market down

S&P up 0.5% - 0.8% market flat

S&P up 0.8% - 1.0% market uptick

S&P up 1% - 2% market up

S&P up > 2% market rallying

 

This are new definitions in new normal 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Devotional
Devotional's picture

this is making me kinda happy actually. Let it go higher guys, the fall will be epic. This one will make history. 1933? Pffft.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

Getting people to spend this holiday looking like it's going to be tougher than squeezing a drop of water out of a death valley rock, ABSOFUCKINLUTELY BULLISH!!!!!!

Here's a funny fact. In order to participate in a bubble and profit from it, you must have something to help blow the bubble in the first place.

If you aint's gots no money you aint's gonna have no money no matta how high da stocks go.

People on the street get that. Somehow people on The Street don't.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:58 | Link to Comment John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Anemic retail sales are bullish... in this current shiteshow that is the "market".

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

"Longest streak since 2007"

Yeah, and what happens next?

DOH!

Who will be the one to shake CONgress down for bailouts part deux?

p.s. - kind of a slap in the face to Main Street that Bartiromo gets all time high's, S&P breaking 1,800, and hard nipples for her last day on CNBC; icing on the cake for the elites and the MSM propaganda machine.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:16 | Link to Comment Derf Scratch
Derf Scratch's picture

So when do higher stock prices jump start the eonomy? As a small biz owner I am anxiously awaiting this mystical phenomenon... color me "disappointed"

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

If your business isn't large enough to bribe CONgress the answer is "a cold day in hell".

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:53 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

work with small buss owner who is going on 4 months down y o y.  walmarts results are best example.

the new buzz word in small buss is flat. huh, no down, yea, some denial going on.

is walmart stock at al time high- idon't know, but wouldn't suprise me.

the bite is starting to hurt. sis in cali got laid off- upper middle.

shit is climbing the ladder, although just two examples, seems to fit my cog dis:)

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:13 | Link to Comment bobert727
bobert727's picture

7 up weeks for the Dow as well......

Seven upweeks, one week prior to the high in late August 1987

9 weeks later, following the October crash, it was 41% off that high

Just saying.....

 

 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:17 | Link to Comment asteroids
asteroids's picture

The VXX has been raped this week as well.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 19:43 | Link to Comment Galts Disciple
Galts Disciple's picture

If this market performance were based on a solid, growing economy I would be happier than a pig in shit. Unfortunately it's not and I have to sit around with my ass puckered trying to figure out when the asshole Ben and soon to be C U Next Tuesday Janet are going to pull the plug so I can get the fuck out. This insanity is taking years off of my life! I might as well start smoking and end it even sooner. Does anyone have a nice crackpipe they want to sell?

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 20:26 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Got to keep Washington D.C. paid.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 05:20 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

S&P500 closes above bull channel resistance - a five year resistance line.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-closes-seventh-straight-we...

 

Markets are so detached from economic reality - it's only a matter of time before this crashes badly.

 

In the meantime, shorts get squeezed again and banks sell their inventory.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

Wait a minute, what fundamentals? I just see two 0.882% downs followed by a 1.618 move up. Neatly displayed on the charts, in disrespect of anything else.

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 11:52 | Link to Comment rck
rck's picture

I believe there was another 7-wk win streak in the beginning of the year. See also http://bit.ly/I75eFg

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