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Which Is It? According To The BLS, The Average Monthly Job Gain In 2013 Is Either 184K Or 20% Lower

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Back in September in "This Is What Happens When The Bureau Of Labor Statistics Is Caught In A Lie" (a topic that has gained substantial prominence recently), we concluded our series exposing BLS data "massaging", when as we predicted the monthly JOLTS survey, which had been trending at an implied monthly job gain of 140K and diverging massively from the NFP average of 198K, as can be seen on the chart below...

 

... finally caught up with reality, resulting in the single biggest monthly outlier in the data stream in the history of the survey.

To be sure, we explicitly warned ahead of time that a massive data revision was imminent as never before had two congruent series diverged so spectacularly. Specifically we said "This means that either the JOLTS survey is substantially under-representing the net turnover of workers, or that once the part-time frenzy in the NFP data normalizes, the monthly job gains will plunge to just over 100K per month to "normalize" for what has been a very peculiar upward "drift" in the NFP "data."

Even Bill Gross read our prior post on the topic from August and tweeted his personal observations:

Of course, now that this record outlier is in the history books, it is in the BLS' interest to slowly but surely "massage" it out with historical revisions. And following today's just released most recent JOLTS report, the BLS has started to make sure that its own two key job datasets no longer diverge so much as to make a completely mockery of its "data" collection and analysis. This is shown in the chart below.

We are confident that with every passing month, silent revisionist history will allow the BLS to smooth out all the prior "data" until the July "sore thumb" outlier is perfectly subsumed in the trailing average. Which is why we will keep the original data as long as needed to keep reminding the BLS that someone keeps watch.

But while the above is indicative of BLS data manipulation, both concurrent and historic, a bigger issue is that even with the adjusted data, there is still a rather notable problem when it comes to reports of the US employment.

The reason is that as we have been explaining for the greater part of 2013, the data sets showing NFP job gains and the Net turnover from JOLTS (hires less separations) has to by definition match. And for the most part it has as can be seen in the chart from the start of 2011:

What is not evident on the chart above is what happens when one zooms in only on the data in 2013, and specifically what the average monthly job gain is per the BLS' nonfarm payrolls report on one hand - perhaps the most watched number in history now that the Fed's tapering and perhaps QE-ending decisions all are "data dependent" just on this series - and what the JOLTS Net Turnover series shows.

It shows the following:

In short: from January to September (we exclude the October 204K print as there is no matching JOLTS number yet) the average monthly jobs gain per the Non-farm Payrolls report is 184K. However, when looking at the implied job gains per the JOLTS Net Turnover, this number is a far more disturbing 150K, some 20% lower.

Keep in mind this is using the adjusted, post-revision data, prior to which JOLTS suggested an average monthly gain as low as 125K.

This is a crucial difference and one which may be very critical in the eyes of the Fed when deciding on whether or not to taper in December, or March. Because now that we have entered a period in which the Fed itself is talking down the impact of "overoptimistic" jobs data in an attempt to delay tapering as much as possible, even invoking the labor force participation rate as a mitigating factor in the unemployment rate drop, what Bernanke and soon Yellen need, is another core data series showing the reality is actually worse than is being represented.

And what better source than the BLS' own "secondary" survey of jobs?

Finally, one wonders: why does the NFP report so persistently over-represent jobs and under-represent employment? Because if the only purpose of US economic data is to serve a political agenda, one can see why the only variable that matters in the New Normal is the Fed.

 


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Fri, 11/22/2013 - 12:27 | Link to Comment Dear Infinity
Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:27 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

184k v 150k?
Like who the fuck cares?
Neither is robust.

Especially after 5, yeas 5 going on 6, years of some of the most expansive monetary and fiscal policies on record, in history, like, ever, dude.

Its high time for everybody to stop bitching pissing and moaning about budgets and M's.  Kids, it's about something else.

Like confidence, psychology.
Voodo?
Cannibals?
Illuminati?
Bilderbugs?

Or, maybe, equal enforcement of the laws, banking reform and money out of politics
Any that gonna change?
Nope
Welcome to a LONG TERM New Normal

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

<-- BLS = Bureau of Lie and Strategem

<-- BLS = Bovine Excrement (Boris not is sure of "L" to mean)

Sat, 11/23/2013 - 08:33 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

 

In my book 'bls' is an abbrevation of bullshit. Bearshit exists as well, known as 'brs'

 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 15:27 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

184k v 150k?
Like who the fuck cares?
Neither is robust.

Especially after 5, yeas 5 going on 6, years of some of the most expansive monetary and fiscal policies on record, in history, like, ever, dude.

Its high time for everybody to stop bitching pissing and moaning about budgets and M's.  Kids, it's about something else.

Like confidence, psychology.
Voodo?
Cannibals?
Illuminati?
Bilderbugs?

Or, maybe, equal enforcement of the laws, banking reform and money out of politics
Any that gonna change?
Nope
Welcome to a LONG TERM New Normal

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Its probably 184K. As I said my sister now has 4 part time jobs to be able to afford to live in section 8 housing.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

The November jobs report will just make up for everything (and will be made up).

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 13:28 | Link to Comment exi1ed0ne
exi1ed0ne's picture

Anybody else remember when a gain of 184K jobs would have been very negative. . . on a monthly basis?

Bizarro world.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:21 | Link to Comment Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Maybe no one is remember 14K or 24K job when salary is pay in gold back of tangible worth and not fiat currency subject of massively dilution in QE expansion.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 17:19 | Link to Comment Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is perhaps to suggest Section 9, rent is small cheap and window is face South in morning. All housing is concrete block, but sunny exposure is to make more affordability for heat in long winter.

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Metalredneck
Metalredneck's picture

The Ministry of Truth has not approved this communique.

Let's just do some shots to commemorate this day...

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

All we really want is to believe, but they are making self delusion so damn hard!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 12:41 | Link to Comment maskone909
maskone909's picture

ghey azz pimpco trying to bid up their bonds

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 13:02 | Link to Comment bubblemania
bubblemania's picture

Bullish!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 13:36 | Link to Comment Traianus Augustus
Traianus Augustus's picture

I said it before and I will say it again...

WHAT A BUNCH OF BLS!!!!!!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:14 | Link to Comment 0b1knob
0b1knob's picture

More Schrodinger numbers.   They are both up and down at the same time.

 

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Another day, another pile of bullshit, another day of printing.

 

You can take your printer Yellen and shove it up your cunt!!!

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 14:38 | Link to Comment are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

Lots of new job openings ... trainer needed to teach unicorns to sing opera, bring your own unicorn... job opening for an experienced pig with an aviation licence ... position open for an experienced hooker who is a virgin... Work opening for a politician who honestly tells the truth and is legally born in the US... Job opening for christian evangelical missionaries to Saudi arabia ..... The Obama fake job growth examples list goes on..........

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Walt D.
Walt D.'s picture

As with the rigged unemployment numbers, do we really care whether it is 184K or 20% less. Once they figure out that you need 200K new jobs just to account for new entrants into the workforce, I'm sure they will revise them up. Oh silly me, I forgot that potential new entrants to the workforce who do not get a job don't make it into the unemployment statistics since they never had a job in the first place.

"There are lies, damned lies, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics"

Fri, 11/22/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

I quit reading the numbers before the election as they are so fudged even a fool knows they are lies.  Sheeple just get herded along to another reality show and do not care.  Without all the waivers this administration is granting to his donors and friends these numbers would be even worse.  Does not matter the party sitting in the White House they will do anything to make a sitting president look good.  What boggles my mind is people actually believe these dam numbers. 

Now lets throw in the new healthcare law and these numbers will be getting worse.  Converting full time to part time jobs is becoming the nrom and politicians could care less!  We are so fucked on many levels. 

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