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Nope, No Bubble Here...
Sentiment, according to Citi's proprietary model, has now reached levels of euphoria not seen since the peak of the bubble in 2007/8, macro-economic data is deteriorating rapidly, and as Tobias Levkovich notes, intra-stock correlation is also posting a worrisome sign.
But perhaps, more than any other indication of just how far ahead of itself the US equity market has gone is the total and utter disconnect the following 8 charts show between aggregate and sector micro-fundamentals and the share price which is supposed to represent their expectations. With net profits being helped by a meaningfully lower effective tax rate and sharply lower interest expense, primarily assisting the Financials sector, expecting these two crucial pillars of support to be sustained is simply folly.
In the interests of plausible deniability, look away... we highly suggest Bullard, the QEeen, and the bulk of the mainstream financial press, look away...
Euphoria is here...
As US macro-fundamentals deteriorate...and are the worst of all global indices year-to-date!!
But - ignoring for a moment the bullshit bloviated day after day by your friendly local commission-taker - bottom-up the picture is even worse...
But apart from that BTFATH!!!
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Barry's got this .
When the SNB have had to peg CHF to EUR to mask the incredible flow of tier 1 being repatriated to the Alps ($250bn per annum) then you know that it's time to buckle up and kiss your ass.
It's all coming down soon.
$250B per annum? Chump change to the chumps who own the Fed, and who get to print IOU's that we taxpayers presumably need to pay back.
Actually the Fed pays a 6% dividend (coincidentally exactly the same as the SNB).
The Fed owns $4trillion of assets which yield about 2.7% (ish).
So the Fed makes about $108bn from the coupon payments.
Which is about half of the amount flowing into Switzerland.
I wonder if we added the Fed, the BOJ and the BOE. I wonder if that would by coincidence equal the amount of FX reserves the SNB has had to buy to fix the CHF EUR in the face of the hurricane of repatriation?
$250bn a year is flowing back to Switzerland. Which is about the same as the coupon on the QE assets. Isn't that a funny coincidence?
Fed, BOJ and BOE QE are the inflationary taps and Switzerland is the deflationary drain.
Capital is thundering into Switzerland and for what? It's not being invested there, it's just being piled up.
-Barack Hussein Obama
Hey guys since there is no bubble yet and this is going to go on for years I am going OT here.
Check this out. I am in awe of the comments section. I think the smartest comment I saw so far was "fuckidy fuck fuck"
http://freewilliamsburg.com/douglas-elliman-rep-70-of-brooklyn-home-sales-going-to-hedge-funds-investors-and-international-buyers/
Check out the NYC Worst Landlord Watchlist. 399 scumbag slumlords.
http://pubadvocate.nyc.gov/landlord-watchlist/buildings
They're talking about up in your neck of the woods, right?
Can I make a suggestion? Do as the house says in "The Amityville Horror": GET OUT!
Sure, they're probably driving up your home's value. But you don't want what comes with it: taxes and renters with little community attachment.
Nice bubble setup. Just like all those Japanese investors in Hawaii during the 80's. We all know happened to them.
Step on up heggies and overseas money managers and buy, your future's going hold some nasty surprises.
@ fonz:
Billy says:
November 21, 2013 at 7:10 pmFuckly Fucking Fuck!
Throw away the charts until govt /fed manipulation stops
QEeen is too twee methinks for Yellen as the ChairSATANs follower
SATANsECHO
is a more appropriate term for hi/erm
is the citigroup economic surprise index chart a rebased chart YTD?
Because for me it shows a value of 6.7, not -40.
Also, its not as simple as just looking at the change in CESI as a macro improvement indicator as its merely the surprise over/under expectations.
try this one, http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/2011/12/01/161819d183.htm
The end of the world is near
http://eamb-ydrohoos.blogspot.gr/2010/02/ten-plagues-of-pharaoh.html
..
Greenspan, Bernanke, Trichet and Akerman are not only like-minded, colleagues and banqueters;
Look Away, Dixieland
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDyF9n5pOqw (4:02)
Japan is FUBAR! (sovereign) asset writedowns are coming.
There is very little chance that the 250% to GDP economy, now deficite spending! Will survive...
The latest Import figures were 3-5% over export figures in Japan. TOAST!
I wonder what the effects of JGB defualt or descent into hyperinflationary hell would mean to the world asset valuation models? Probably nothing very important, I'm sure. It'll be fine. Yeah, it'll be fine.
Wouldn't it be ironic if the developed country with the world's largest debt/GDP ratio was the first one to crumble? It's so obvious it's almost unthinkable.
What about KAMPO? That quasi state investment arm of the BoJ must be getting desperate?
Japan selling the Australian $(aud/jpy) with over a 2% yield? Yeah right? Inflation doesn't exist>
I'll preface this with: I have no fucking clue about this, since I haven't studied it closely.
So, wild ass speculation: would not a JGB default trickle over to blow up the Yen carry trades? If so, the unwinds of those trades could get ugly fast, sort of like how the distress sales a few days before/during the Bear Sterns and Lehman events played out, except way, way bigger. It'd also imagine it'd blow up exchange rates too as a double-whammy.
Japan is a preview for the US.
We just need another triiilon or so borrowed to improve roads & bridges and create "green jobs". Oh yeah...and a couple trillion more borrowed to train people how to build a fucking website where one can shop for overpriced health insurance like on Amazon, cuz it'll reduce the deficit and create 400,000 new jobs...or sumpin.
Piece-a-cake.
Well, shit, we might as will fix those roads and bridges now because we sure as hell ain't gonna fix them AFTER the next crisis.
But all the anti-lebertarians(not sure what else to call 'em) tell me that my taxes go to pay for the "roads and bridges that you drive on". We shouldn't need to borrow any money, right? If we are all paying taxes we should be good, right?
"the anti-lebertarians(not sure what else to call 'em)"
Statists. You call them statists.
Right, thank you.
Statists Bitchez!
Oh wait...
Im not sure what a "lebertarian" is BTW.
*more beer*
Well, at least Amazon's website is stellar. I know a few of the brilliant minds who were a part of its construction. They made their money delivering a product that performed reliably under heavy traffic and was very complex. Had they delivered that shit bag obamacare web site to amazon they would have been laughed at and Amazon would taken their business elsewhere.
The private sector knows they have to have a good product or they are out of business. The public sector knows they will be paid if it's dog shit or not. There is simply no motivation for excellence. Besides, there will be infinite work just fixing it.
Miffed;-)
I know what the lady is saying ... It's been a long slog being The Bear in this market and all the time knowing that when it does go south, all the banksters will just cash in and head for the hills; Vail, Snow Valley, or Park City
Really, when is the last time you saw any correlation between fundamentals and the stock market. The last time I saw any remnants was in Fall 2011. Before year end 2011 FED implemented software that now runs the stock market indexes. No fundamentals have anything to do with stocks. Stock indexes are graphs made by FED software so like shown in the video just BTFD.
If you like you may conjecture that the graphs also represent the amount of counterfeit currency being paid by the FED to bribe the Washington D.C. politicians to commit treason against the United States of America and its citizens. So now at least you can relate it to something physical.
All that is required for corruption to continue is for good people to do nothing or just play along.
I'm not amazed. I've watched for a generation or two.
At first I tryed to teach, then I tryed to accept. Then again, I tried to teach!
When all the wealth was mined, I looked skywards?
Awe heck. I tried.
"look away..."
Hah!
That is probably the only kind of advice from Zero Hedge that they would act upon, since evil deliberate ignorance is their central characteristic, that is the only kind of advice that they would agree with being a good idea.
oooooh pretty colors!
I nominate AKAK and Billy-7 for a first annual (Z-H Bilderberg) convention.
" The Best Of bothWorlds Summit"...
Your 7 times the size of the CIA.........I might as well shoot my buddy, take his job give it to his sworn enemy, club a baby seal, hike up gas prices, hit the hash pipe and join the national guard.
Look & see
http://patrick.net/forum/?p=1230886
" Please, do not worry."
And the gold passes through London to Switzerland where the gold bars with serial numbers are melted down and converted into one kilo bars and sent to China,another coincidence?
There are no bubbles, the market is still pricing in inflation expectations: QE will never end and the benchmark interest rate will remain below .25% for many more years.