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How To Trade Everything This Week In One Chart
While US Thanksgiving week tends to thin out trade, there are some takeaways based on historical seasonal trends. Most are aware of the positive bias for US stocks, but as the following chart from Barclays shows there are notable biases in USDJPY, Canadian government bonds, Brent crude, Japanese government bonds, Gold, and German stocks...
Source: Barclays
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I'm going with goat entrails myself.
"They" claim since many think there is a bubble it won't pop - but what about headlines all of them saying no bubble - from last few days ? Does it mean we are closer to bubble because of this? Why nobody takes this view?
The Bull Market Doesn't Care That You Think It Should Correct.
Nasdaq 4000: Tech bubble? Not yet.
Nasdaq 4000: This time it's different (again)
Current investment boom is no bubble, says Barclays Israel chief
Three Reasons We Are Not In A Tech Bubble
We Have Secular Stagnation in the U.S. and No Bubbles
Stocks Overvalued but No Bubble
No bubble, no correction on horizon for markets: RBC
There Can't Be A Stock Market Bubble In A Stagnant Economy
Record High For Stocks Still Not A Bubble [SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust]
Despite a surge, stocks not on bubble, experts say
“It's a Boom,” Not a Bubble: Howard Lindzon
Tepper: This Is No Bubble
There is no bubble as long as the Fed allows the spice to flow.
Why does it look like the purple traces are just flippin' me off?
Back in the day, the Friday after Thanksgiving was a wonderful day to go online and fleece the wannabe day traders who had heard about all of the wonderful dot com stocks over the Thanksgiving table.
Those were fun days.
Where is Bitcoin?
nowhere near a historical seasonal trend.
Compared to these childish (1-3%) metrics, it's like Jack's magic beanstalk.
ok so thanksgiving = a little silver discount
Fuck that. The only trading I'm doing is exchanging my dress clothes in for some stretchy pants and slippers. I'm looking forward to non-stop food and booze.
After being short (SPY puts, actually) all year and now down 92% in my trading account this year, I've finally capitulated and flipped levered long. My plan was to go long all year once we saw a 8% correction giving a nice entry point. I hung in there thinking I'd get that entry point, but to no avail. What we have here is Mises crack-up-boom in full swing. The ship is going down, Zimbabwe-style, the Fed is trapped and must continue or increase QE as the real economy deteriorates. So put me in the category of economic bears but market bulls. After the ball-crushing losses I've sustained this year, I've finally learned my lesson: this market will never go down, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is via SPY calls. Started off by dumping my Jan 165 puts and flipping them over to Feb 188 calls.
If it's one thing we bears have had hammered into us over the last year it's that fundamentals really don't matter anymore. Clinging to that belief has cost me most of my life savings and I am no longer going to deny reality. 1980's to 2009 I traded very profitably on fundamentals and thought they still mattered. Ha! Levered long now, suggest other bears do the same while they still can. Looking for another 50% upside to markets in 2014 before the shit hits the fan no sooner than 2015 and probably later. Might as well start before the 5-10% Santa rally in December. Worldwide printfest and currency war means continued gains are virtually guaranteed. No, I'm not a shill or a troll, this is the real deal, coming from a long-time ZH'er.
See ya SPY puts and good riddance!
I guess I am lucky in that respect. Have been sitting on the sidelines watching. Not much in gains but no losses.
Yep, good call. The only thing worse than having sat out this bull is having traded against it.
It took me until about the mid 90's to really get my short strategy down. Lots of early losses even during the early 90's recession. But I was able to eke out positive gains even during the go-go late 90's. Then 2000 was paypay when virtually all my puts became 10 baggers in a matter of months launching me solidy into 6-figure territory. Preserved capital throughout the reflation 2001-2008 staying short selective names, preserving capital and learning a lot more fundamental analysis along the way. 2008 was my biggest payday yet. After the Bear Stearns meltdown in March, I backed up the truck on puts on selected brokerages and investment banks including Lehman and almost hit 7 figures. Then after waiting on the sidelines for the inevitable bounce in 2009 started testing the waters short again using the same tactics that I had used succesfully for over 20 years and that's when the bleeding really started. Lost the rest this year when I started going heavily short again in March when all normal and rational indications were that a large correction was upon us and proceeded to lose my ass. Until now, I just never could fathom that with QE-4eva, things really were different this time.
I'm sure I'm writing the same story that many of us on ZH have lived. Good luck fellow Former Fundamentals-based Swing Traders.
My clients are 97% long, 3% leveraged VIX. They're bitching about the drag on returns.
Prospecting is brutal; everyone else is happy with their current advisor.
Fuck you, Bernanke. Fuck you very much.
+1 for the Mises reference. I think when all is said and done over the next decade we'll see finally see a shift, even among the mainstream, of Keynesianism to Austrian economic views. Krugman et al. will go down in history as some of the worst "economists" ever.
We'll be discussing new economic theories on cave wall paintings, if we're lucky to survive these maniacs at all.
I lost about the same last year with my shorts. I've had a good year this year by going with everything that i don't believe in. They allow you to make some money but only if you sign up for the lobotomy - they have to suck your soul at the same time.
OMFG, a green screen. For the first time in months, I'm actually up overall on a position. Pinch myself. BTFATH! I only wish I had bought the FATH all year. Yes, I have now reached a permanent plateau of insanity.
Ha ha! I flipped long within a point of the high today and ended up red after the late-day dump. Watch today be the top we've been waiting for for years. They say when the last bear capitulates, that will mark the top. I sure hope I wasn't the last bear, although that would give me some serious bragging rights, to have marked the top to within an hour.
These fuckers can't even take 1 day off where they're not scheming how to skim off a profit from everyone....roll out the guillotines already.