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Everyone Was Talking About A Stock Bubble... Just Before The Last Bubble Burst
One of the more painfully clueless observations made by pundits in recent weeks is that just because everyone is talking about a bubble, there can not possibly be a bubble.
Naturally, if one is tuned to only filter any bubble mentions, one will naturally have a cognitive bias of interpreting the world only through the eyes of "bubble watchers." The flipside of course is that not everyone is a mindless member of the herd, rushing headlong into whatever precipice awaits lemmings just around the corner, and can still do simple math and recall what fundamentals looked like (as a reminder, forward multiples in 2007 looked very cheap too...before EPS for the S&P in 2008 plunged by over 50% which in retrospect would have made those forward multiples 100% higher).
But simple logic failure aside, what empirical evidence shows is that while there has been indeed a pick up in internet mentions of "stock bubble" according to Google Trends, it is still well below its prior high... hit in May 2007 and October 2007, just before and at the very peak of the last stock bubble.
We can only assume that the same pundits that somehow are getting airtime now, were the same ones who said in the summer of 2007 when the S&P had hit its prior, non-QE assisted all time high, that just because everyone is talking about a bubble there can't possibly be a bubble...
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There shall be no bubble talk.....everything is going fine in the transition to part time jobs.....what could be more super bullish than that?
Do I even need to bring up the fact that everyone in the USA has to buy a new healthcare insurance policy......BY FREAKIN LAW!
Indeed, this time is different...
Especially the rhetoric.
right now, the WH is hiring another "non partisan" group to produce positive stories that specifically do not mention "stock bubble" and calling Zuckerberg to black out stories that contain the phrase "stock bubble"
http://capitolcityproject.com/non-partisan-group-paid-1-million-produce-...
WH is hiring another "non partisan" group to produce positive stories
Good deal....I'm sure we could all use a little good propaganda right about now.
They saw a bubble in gold at $1900 and rushed to deflate it. But Yellen said that there is no evidence of a bubble in the markets even though she had her contacts on.
It is the holiday season. Why ruin the cheer? Watch out below next year though!!
that sounds an awful lot like a double entrende. "she's in tough mode." our women have become men...and our men women...it would appear. "winning has a thousand fathers while losing is an orphan."
if u reppealed the anti propaganda law, you may as well take advantage....
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20130715/11210223804/anti-propaganda-b...
That fucking POS Soros.
Soros needs to become fertilizer
Not the ones that don't get sick. We already think the law is a joke, the car insurance man owes me a half life of future insurance, and we had to pass it so YOU could find out what's in it politics has all run it's course, execpt for the sheep that is.
"If you want to keep your stock bubble, you can keep your stock bubble."
"You didn't build that stock bubble."
..."that everyone in the USA has to buy a new healthcare insurance policy..."
I don't. I seceded back in 1979. I don't partake in the statist insanity and thievery. If more people had the conviction to secede from tyrany, like the British subjects did in the colonies a few hundred years ago, then we would have quite a bit of power by now. Most people won't fight like I do because they might loose their stuff or don't want the hassle of defending your right to liberty. You have been breed to be lazy and selfish. But, if you change your attitude, please join me in personal secession from all the federal, state and local tyrany.
If you disagree, tell me how your choices are leading you to more liberty. Has voting or political participation made this union any better? Are your leaders removing any of the millions of laws that have you boxed in? Is there true prosperity or are more people being enslaved by artificial powers given to a few?
Rant off. Secede now.
I like this...but, what exactly - without identifying info - did you do?
therearetoomany..."...but, what exactly - without identifying info - did you do?"
What I did amounts to a lifetime of finding ways to be free but not attract the attention of the IRS and other sociopaths. The state wants you to think that they somehow own you because they passed laws that say so. I disagree and I do not consent. I also never consented to the uS constitution or any laws derived from it.
For example, in my life I have started, built and operated four businesses, three of them I have sold. I never file state or federal forms, ask permission, or take anything from governments. I just go about my business knowing that they want to persecute me. This knowledge, personal study and much effort is then applied to my decissions to make the path of least resistance.
The risk is great but worth it to me. 3 times the IRS has stated that I owe X amount of dollars. I challange this in tax court and work out a deal to give them some money. Over 30+ years they have extorted a few thousand dollars but I just consider that the cost to live in the most corrupt country in history. (If you love this country and wave your flag and pledge your allegiance, I mean no harm. Just my opinion.)
There's far too mch to explain here. I would like to encourage you to make every effort to keep free. You will be accused of stealing, cheating and not paying your fair share. Or so the serfs have told me my whole life.
In other words, you're full of shit. All this talk of secession and liberty and lemmings and all you do is skip out on some taxes and run your own business.
Another thing re: this comment - "but I just consider that the cost to live in the most corrupt country in history"
This is the kind of mind-set that arises when you live in a hole your whole life - zero perspective about REAL corruption that goes on in other countries. People in Russia/India/China/Central America/etc. would laugh at that comment. Get out of your bunker sometime and get some fresh air.
crimedog...I can see that you are fully entrenched in the uSA serf mentality. They are your masters, you must obey them, you will obey them. I expect people like you to attack me, it is the behavior of someone that is frustrated at the notion that someone has the freedom that you really want.
Don't dwell on me or what I have said....Happy Thanksgiving.
'Far too much to explain here'. I call BS that you have sold a legitimate (yes, that means a record) business to anyone unless it was, like, drug related or in the realm of what you fantasize is a business. Selling rabbits from your home. You are not free at all; you are constantly looking over your shoulder as you suggest by your IRS involvement. Yeah, right you just pay them a pittance.
I'm actually surprised that nobody has responded to your comment.
Admittedly, I last voted in 2008 - for Obama (there, I said it) - but mostly as a protest against the corrupt Republicans that put and kept Bush in power for eight lousy years. By 2010 I was completely back to my original political stance: hating both parties with equanimity.
Like you, I am doing my best to avoid participation in the "system." Told relatives last year that I would not be participating in Christmas present giving (for God's sake, we're all grown adults, so why continue wasting money), don't vote any more, cheat like hell on taxes and am working on going off the grid.
You are indeed correct that if more people acted in their own self-regard toward individual liberty, we'd be far ahead and maybe even thwart the overlords in their despicable practices. Doing my part, but generally speaking, nobody listens. Oddly enough, however, I find more and more people my age (60) awakening, and, there are many small actions being taken by individuals every day in opposition to the tyranny of our age.
That's some hope and change in which I can believe.
Keep the faith, baby.
Amen, brother. I hope the next generation picks up on this. Otherwise the FSA will take over and we will all run out of other people's money to spend. Getting off the grid is not easy... it's all intertwined into daily life. I have been stocking up on canned food, growing my own garden and hunting deer though. I also bought a gun and lots of ammo (for hunting of course). I don't have a cell phone and I don't have cable or satellite TV. Being totally off the grid is probably not possible, but I'll get as far as I can away.
Please do tell. Interest is high. Don't hold back. Links, references are fine. No need for a dissertation on ZH.
Hey, I resemble that remark! +1 to you SoD.
But....but....everyone sez that you can't have unlimited freedom. You might hurt yourself or someone else if you're too free. They also insist that we're but a few more laws away from paradise. Just a few more laws, and we'll all be free, and safe, and wealthy. Baa....baa....baa....
More ZH unverifiable hot air. Of course, if ANY of what you say is true then it's likely 'illegal'. Once upon a time, back in the early 70's, I decided to not pay taxes.....Good for you until you get caught. You have a nice John Law attitude without the reasonable sounding bullshit. My radicalism evaporated when I had kids. But hey, if you're underground enjoy the view. If liberty to you is all smashmouth, I dismiss you. Just recently. here in AK, there has been a rash of court cases with serious fines for illegal hunting on federal land. You are welcome to come and join the loonies here that go bat-shit when they can't exercise their god-given right to kill anything anywhere anytime with any caliber. Sorry sport, you're gonna have to give some examples of your exemplary behavior before I'm even mildly interested.
yofish....
..."if ANY of what you say is true then it's likely 'illegal'."
"...give some examples of your exemplary behavior before I'm even mildly interested."
Thats OK. I doubt that I could sit down and have a conversation with you since you enjoy the slavery provided by legal means. After all, you HAVE to obey anyone that says they control you. Sorry I disturbed your sleep.
Hey weak knees, you of course don't give any examples. Typical around here; hot air and bullshit are presented as truth. Then, when called out, the OP worms. C'mon man, give us some examples or go home. What's so difficult with that? Set aside your opinion of me (who cares), others have asked too. Put up or shut up. Tell us about your Secede Or Die formula. Double dog dare. I'm actually interested. You won't though, because your weak, live in your head and can't actualize anything.
Yofish....your bitter and uncouth attitude exposé that you have no genuine interest in me or how I have resisted tyrany.
Most people are too lazy to cancel TV and Hollywood which controls what the dumb sheep think. Your viewership and cable bill keep them in power.
"Do I even need to bring up the fact that everyone in the USA has to buy a new healthcare insurance policy......BY FREAKIN LAW!"
Rebel against that. Don't buy the gov't insurance. If you get injured or sick, go to the emergency room - they have to treat you BY LAW. Someone else will pay for it eventually. We can play the FSA game too, if that's the game Obama wants to play.
Do you work for goldcore? Your schilling is the only thing that shines about you
if everyone pays individual costs come down, no?
obama et al. also couldve introduced a healthcare tax, which wouldve made ur healthcare law the same as any other tax law you have
Please, selling is out (actually outlawed), printing is in. The "market" will never go down again. Hooray?!
Bernanke used helicopters.
Yellen will use B-52s.
I don't know....
Bernanke was a man... so he liked the militairy toys like choppers...
Yellen is a woman so they say... so she'll probably not use mil. toys... and use what women use best... MANIPULATION!!!
Yellen appears to be a woman. This has yet to be confirmed.
Doesn't appear that way to me. More like a guy in drag.
I only wished it was in drag, behind a pick up truck.
Yeah - she shares the same acronym as the B-52 = BUFF.
Well, until does that is.
The good news; We will all be trillionaires!
The bad news; We will all be trillionaires!
To be, or not to be, the 1st trillionaire, that is the question. The answer is, if you go on an exciting adventure, you could be a trillionaire.
MY GOD!!!!
DO YOU KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS!!???!!!
I'll have to buy a new calculator because mine can only do 10 figures....
SO: GO LONG TEXAS INSTRUMENTS!!!!
I expect to be an infinitaire.
what about the 13 year long consolidation and breakout which just happened in S&P?
Amazing what you can do with a little hot printed QE cash......huh?
Do you really consider getting a never ending allowance from sugar daddy to be a market fundamental?
All due to the ongoing debasement of the US dollar. In the real underlying economy we are at best going sideways right now. This is the worst recovery on record by any measure and now still we have over 90 million Americans out of work. Eventually the fundamental economy will matter ...
everybody, stop destroying confidence..the MSM has been doing yomen work making sure the american public thinks the UE and economy is just about normal. why Obuma is winning every day, if your quality of life is lower than ever, thats winning.
"now still we have over 90 million Americans out of work. Eventually the fundamental economy will matter ..."
Obuma is winning every day
Well he's still campaigning and raising money.....for what I'm not exactly sure.
The next generation of progressive demo-rats
U mean Whining
It's only a profit once you sell. 85 billion per month (that we know of).
Just say thank you, who cares about the other guy, right?
Statistics have shown most won't sell.....they'll ride it the whole way down. It's just human nature.
Most won't be able to sell when it starts. Busy phone lines, unreachable brokers - the brokers will be trying to cut their own losses.
There are no more charts. But if you insist, how about a slightly overshooting triple top??
Uhh?!? 13 year long CONSOLIDATION?!
DavidC
Take that graph, lay it on top of the CNBC viewership graph and that's a new all-time-high relative to the number of people who even give a crap about stocks any more.
It's all Bullshit!!!
"It's different this time"
Shit! I think SP will be 2400 next year. Buy!
The last time we watched Bear Sterns go under as we speculated who would be next.
Maybe we should consult Cramer on this?
That and pair of green dice and you can't lose.
Buy! Buy! Bye!
Considering little people (meaning retail investors) don't own stocks anymore, nobody gives a damn anymore, and there are 101 distractions and other things for people to worry about, the spike in searches for "stock bubble" should be considered rather epic.
That's how I see it ,, and since the retail investor is absent Wall Street won't have anyone to sell to when they try to get out ... they'll lose most of their gains on the backend as they'll only be able to unload a small percentage before the price drops. Puts are undervalued.
Listen, sheeples are getting ready to stuff their faces and go shopping. CEO's have to be paid no matter what, have fresh blood floating and need to suck em dry.
Remember that bubble of CO2 at Lake Nyos in Africa? It was a huge bubble in the lake's deep water. And then one day in August of 1986 it surfaced and killed animals and people in the surrounding area.
Bubbles can be bad.
If the stock market's rise is epic, it is also a recipe for an epic fail.
It might be somewhat of a surprise, but not all stocks are rising with the DOW Jonesin' for another new high.
If you go to the Trends page, and type in "Jim Cramer" the results are rather amusing...
Especially point "C"
Bubble, bubble, toil and trouble...
I will amusingly double your trouble, leading others to an early grave naturally. It was written.
Yet another misconception that is continually kept alive in the interests of the eLeeches
In the last bubble, just about everyone participated in it. The common people saw their net worth explode as the value of their home skyrocketed. Jobs were plentiful because everyone was making "money".
This bubble dwarfs them all because very few people are participating in it. The gains are not widespread.
Life has become figuring out a way to get rich without working for it. Bubble blowing momentum chasing mania.
I've found that most people who gain wealth without working for it turn into absolute assholes. The sense of entitlement and selfishness knows no bounds. That goes for the welfare class as well, since they don't work for those cash either. There isn't much difference in the attitude of Carl Icahn and the ghetto welfare queen. If you are holding the last Xbox, both will try to grab it from you. If you don't give it up, both will shoot you in the head and say you deserved it.
People that work for their money seem to genuinely appreciate their money and the people that helped them make it. The owner of a $50 million a year company I work for has a few million in the bank and millions more in assets. He lives in a 2000 sq ft house and drives a pickup. You'd never know the guy was a millionaire. He pays his employees extremely well and some have worked for him for fifty years.
Talking about bubbles...
Bitcoin vs. Gold: The Future of Money - Peter Schiff Debates Stefan Molyneux
We have a great conversation about Bitcoin between Peter Schiff and Stefan Molyneux. You can find a lot of additional information on Bitcoin from Stefan's video. Everybody decides for themselves where is the Intrinsic Value and where is the Bubble. We are siding with China here - who is buying record amounts of Gold this year with Thailand, Turkey and other Asian countries.http://sufiy.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/bitcoin-vs-gold-future-of-money-pete...
OK Zhers. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't PMs dive during the crash of 2008 along with equities? Wouldn't the smart thing, if one is expecting a bubble to pop, to sit with cash and pick up PMs after the fact? Just asking?
It would seem so.
In other words, BTF CRASH!
Yup. They always do....Until they don't.
Thanks for reminding me.. I have been too busy awaiting a crash, thinking it would be a good thing. Cash is good if you can get access to it...restrictions. Which banks will survive? Will they be Cypress'd. There in lies the problem. There are ways and means though outside banks. The other thought is how long will it take gold to rebound, and if it's fast you are out of the game.
There is a potentially game-changing difference this time around: the crash may well include (or be preceeded by) defaults by papar metals exchanges, causing gold bullion to break from what might otherwise be an expected tether to other markets.
PMs don't seem to be tethered to anything currently, except manipulation!
that is the strategy....buy low, never sell. haha. but you are right on. I have been setting on dry powder for years now waiting for this opportunity...just hoping it goes down a bit more before i load the boat.....and hope it doesn't sink this time.
NOBODY expects the stock bubble!
Or, EVERYONE expects the bubble, but most dare not call it such, as that might give it focus and scrutiny by the market itself and those who make the market.
"I want to take you higher...
Boom-chaka-laka-laka, boom-chaka-laka-laka."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfcgwxPH7Rc
Tony Soprano does HUD.
If I had a son, he would look like Janet Yellen.
If you like your cheap money paper profits, you can keep your cheap money paper profits. Period.
Oh, wait...
Bubbles, student debt:
http://www.independent.co.uk/student/istudents/todays-student-loan-selloff-is-just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg-8962878.html
Yes, we are allowed to have gigantic bubbles and as long as we keep talking about them they won't pop. Who makes this garbage up.
It should be obvious that if you price money at free via ZIRP and then negative with QE for extended periods of time, bubbles will develop somewhere in the world as a result. Talking about them or not talking about them doesn't change their existence.
Everyone know the House Bubble of the 00s was a bubble as well. It was widely acknowledged. But that just drives greater fool theory. As long as someone will pay more, the party keeps on going.
"One of the more painfully clueless observations made by pundits in recent weeks is that just because everyone is talking about a bubble, there can not possibly be a bubble."
That is just plain absurd for them to do. They are being cheerleaders, not objective observers.
The Russel is up 34% this year. That is abnormal. 11/27/12 to 11/27/13, the Russel is up 40.9%. That is abnormal. How can the pundits not see abnormal?
Thing is, the bubble needs to be at least 2x's times more than the last one, because the Fed can paper over any fraud/downswings (until the rubber band breaks).
It will be fun.
Youse guys really need to use scales on both axes of your graphs. Especially when there is no way to validate the graph.
Your PLUNGE in the SP500 futures on 11/07/2013 was about 1.53% (SPX 11/06 high 1773, 11/07 low 1746)
If Futures traders got hurt then Bubble concerns would be valid!
ps. I don't go near futures
In the ZH article about CNBC it draws the unequivocal conclusion that 'retail' are not involved at all in the surge in the stock-market.
So if we take that 'finding' and combine it with the current article, do we assume that all the searches being spoken of here are all by non-retail participants??