Holiday Sales Expected To Be Less Than Half Fed's "Wealth Effect" Hope

Tyler Durden's picture

Based on the Fed's wealth effect creating surge in stock prices, Guggenheim's Scott Minerd believes retail sales should be up 5.8% in Q4 2013. However, as we noted before, expectations are for a dismal 1-2% holiday spending growth at best; as 2013 is set to be the worst holiday spending season since 2009. Stores from Tilly's to Abercrombie and Wal-Mart are warning, the NRF projects the first drop YoY since 2009, and gas prices are set to rise (further pressuring consumers' disposable incomes). The bottom line - as we already know - is that QE's effects on the real economy (if there were ever any?) are set to end in the 2013 holidays.


A 1-2% spending rise expectation is less than half the S&P's surge would imply...



Chart: Guggenheim

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The Heart's picture

"growth at best;"


At best??


Be lucky if they make the electric bill...and commie-care costs.

lolmao500's picture

Yeah if people think 2013 will be bad, they've seen nothing yet. 2014 holiday sales will probably be the worst since the 90s... best case scenario.

jeff montanye's picture

screen keeps going blank.  what gives?

jeff montanye's picture

seriously the last few days i try to read or post in early stories and the screen goes blank and i have to recall zerohedge and try again.  what's the deal????

CrazyCooter's picture

Talked to my old man tonight about gifts; we both give wool. He said he is good on merino and I told him to wait until the sales in April. I usually get some Pendleton (wonderful company great products - best prices in April) and I have been buying him Minus 33 Merino longjohns  because he is "old and cold" all the time. Crazy bastard says now that "if heaven doesn't have flannel sheets and 10 hour electric blankets - I don't want to to go" LMAO. That kind of started it.

Merino wool underclothes are the bomb for old folks that aren't as "hot" as they used to be. Shop your own vendors, just advising what worked for my old man. He loves the stuff. And he gifted me a lot of Pendleton shirts/coats, pearl snaps, the works, when I moved up north. Classic stuff you can't get anymore, even this crazy plaid wool bath robe from the 70s.

We are both value shoppers and don't find this time of year compelling to buy ... anything.

Everyone else I buy a ASE if I give a shit. Are those on sale?

Wool and silver.



Zero Point's picture

I'm giving homemade soap to the family this year.

It even smells nice, and my kids helped me make it.

If there's a next year, I'm going to give homemade whiskey.


AldousHuxley's picture

It is like $1 a soap bar. Not saving much there and you probably pay more to ship.



CoolBeans's picture

Thank you for the tip on Minus 33 products.  I have Raynaud's and cold is just painful (I understand your Pop's feelings about being cold).  I'm in FL (it was 29 last night...and our furnace died...nice Thanksgiving).  Anyway,  I put 'em on my favorites and when I get some $ will definately buy the 3/4 long john's.  THANK YOU!

AldousHuxley's picture

bill gates just bought tons of exxon.



Jlasoon's picture

2014 should be a firecracker of a year.

In other news "a man in Thailand was pronounced dead after being electrocuted by his iPhone 4s".


"Buy our overpriced neo-slave built chargers or face possible death by electrocution"


infinity8's picture

Pfft! Electric bill? Who worries about that?!?! I'm not buying anything this year (as last, and the year before, and before, and before. . . ) except some socks for myself. They'll get something I cook or otherwise make with my hands and I don't expect anything either. But, then again, I've been on a "zip your wallet" campaign since the '90's.

ebworthen's picture

5.8% increase in spending?


Did people get a 5.8% raise?

Were their healthcare costs lowered by 5.8%?

Were their taxes decreased by 5.8%?


If there is a 5.8% increase it will be on the Mastercard/Visa/AmEx bill, a.k.a. DEBT.

Oh, that should do wonders for the economy, but is that not the FED and .gov example?

Skateboarder's picture

The more you stack on your credit card and the tighter you squeeze your debit line, the more naked CDS there are put on your aggregate risk class sectioning of a risky consumer credit line betting scheme over on murca's favorite street.

ebworthen's picture

True that.

They'll send I.R.S. agents to yank my gold crowns out to pay the bill, but for the banks and banksters they'll keystroke 'em $40 Billion overnight - no questions asked - no repayment necessary.

The hegemonic demonic wankers!

infinity8's picture

You're dating yourself with those gold crowns. :D - Say Cheese!

ebworthen's picture

Nothing better, and I'm not that old, just young enough to appreciate quality.

Porcelain crowns crack within 10 years, Gold lasts 20, 30, 40 years.

Malleable, non-corrosive, heat and cold resistant; all the reasons Gold is valuable is why it makes a great crown.  Hey, if I can't invest in myself why invest?

infinity8's picture

Uh, no arguing with you. Must be paying your DDS in (cash?) I have good teeth, thank Jeebus and the turkey but, not the norm. Nowadays in 'Murca anyway. Unless you grillin'.

ebworthen's picture

No worries, yes - paid in cash. Happy Thanksgiving.

infinity8's picture

And to you, sir. And all you other ZH monkeys as well. Best to youse and yours!

TheRideNeverEnds's picture

Its amazing they still get away with saying QE is to try and help regular people.  Its theft plain and simple.  

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

We believe what we want to believe.

<Thank God the idiot box tells us what we want to believe, otherwise we would be clueless.>

CrimsonAvenger's picture

What a fool believes
he sees
no wise man has the power
to reason away

Hedgetard55's picture

+55 kajillion for the Michael McDonald/Doobies quote.

Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Spending should be down 5.8%, not up.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Time to roll out QE 5++.

<Watch out for friendly fire.>

jon dough's picture

When QE 6.6.6 hits, I'm cutting out...

walküre's picture

They have a problem. That group of 0.1% to 1% may be flush and willing to spend but their shopping and consumption will never make up for the drop in incomes and loss of credit for the 99%.

The story nobody in DC Versailles wants to hear. Instead they figure cutting SNAP by 6% is feasible. Maybe. But it won't entice anyone to spend.

There's no job security and there's no demand. Fucking economists are all out to lunch with their projections. Not even mentioning the uncertainty and increased cost for Obamacare.

dizzyfingers's picture

"They have a problem. That group of 0.1% to 1% may be flush and willing to spend but their shopping and consumption will never make up for the drop in incomes and loss of credit for the 99%."

Sweat them! Cut up all credit cards, buy as little as possible (balap).

What are they gonna do, arrest us?

jonjon831983's picture

I now see an Adidas ad on ZH with this incredibly fertile looking dirty blonde.  Not sure if anybody else gets it.  Excuseme I'm gonna buy some adidas, help holiday sales, and... get spied on.

Jlasoon's picture

The new Adidas "SpringBlade" are only $180. Do your civic duty, help the eCONomy along, save a Bernank and buy 2 pairs. Would you like to know more?

jonjon831983's picture

Hmmm noo... the female was wearing some sorta sports top that squeezed her breasts... I was thinking of buying what she was wearing.

Never One Roach's picture

Do you happen to have any pics of net seasons super speedos worn by the Young and the Breastless New Wealthy Chinese driving Maseratis.

El Vaquero's picture



If I'm spending that much on shoes, I expect at least 1,000 days of use out of them.  And I'm hard on shoes. 

Bobbyrib's picture

I am waiting for buy some New Balance sneakers. They are made in th US and cheaper than $180. I'm in need on new sneakers.

Hedgetard55's picture

bought my last three pairs of New Balance for $4 a pair at Goodwill. Slightly used but still going strong.

CoolBeans's picture

Addidas = sucks. My son + a friend bought mid-priced models (just under $100).  Both fell apart at the exact same seam and Addidas would not return inquiries as to refund...much less admit sub-quality overseas manufacturing.  Will NEVER buy anything other than New Balance for everyday.  How I wish they'd made a sport-line (soccer, etc.) we could utilize.

CoolBeans's picture

LOVE New Balance - we buy them for the entire family because they are made in the US and fit + wear very well.


dizzyfingers's picture


Bobbyrib: Some N.B. shoes are made in USA. Depends on what year, what shoe models. Lots of "marketing" talk to make people feel good about buying N.B.

"New Balance is one of several shoe companies that makes some of their products in the United States. Green America states in the New Balance Responsible Shopper company information page that around one quarter of NB's shoes are made in the United States.[5]"

So 75% not madein US. 


max2205's picture

Maybe the FSA buying power will help....oh wait

lolmao500's picture

Funny just came back from a meeting at COSTCO... they still are telling us it'll be record sales and profits this year... YEAH RIGHT.

Oldwood's picture

Hints of negative interest rates and a potential explosion in inflation with a little Yellin thrown in for seasoning is squeazing cash out of savers pockets while the FSA is living it up on our dime and endless credit fills the gaps. How could this be working any better?

stant's picture

velocity of money is still down aprox 50% from 2007-8

Uber Vandal's picture

Negative Nominal interest rates should help that along a bit.

lolmao500's picture

While Hagel is trying to start ww3...

Hagel: U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty covers islands China also claims

Come on. Supporting Japan against China, yes. Helping Japan if they get attacked by China, yes. But saying those contested islands are Japan and there's no discussion about it? Bullshit. Let Japan and China figure it out by themselves... don't start a war because of some shitty island nobody gives a fuck.

Oldwood's picture

What could better for a dying economy than War?

Coast Watcher's picture

No shit. I've been waiting for one for a couple years now. Figured it would be Syria or Iran, but maybe the 0.1% have figured out that a war with China would negate all those dollar securities.

dizzyfingers's picture

"Hagel: U.S.-Japan mutual defense treaty covers islands China also claims"

Time to take to the streets!! HELL NO OUR KIDS WON'T GO!