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Bill Gross: "Give Thanks To The Fed, But Not Your Wallet"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Some holiday cheer from the one person who surely has the most reasons (over a trillion) to be thankful to Ben Bernanke for.

 

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Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:12 | 4196745 vmromk
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Death to the MOTHERFUCKING CRIMINAL Federal Reserve.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:28 | 4196770 Cult_of_Reason
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Nasdaq is not a bubble. It's impossible. It's 13% below internet bubble peak.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BaK-6-6CIAA3we9.jpg:large

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:34 | 4196817 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

So... I shouldn't give thanks to my wallet?  ZH is getting into a bad habit of posting confusing headlines.  Why take Bill Gross's crystal clear tweet and change the word order to make it confusing?  Interns running the show on Thanksgiving I guess.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:07 | 4196933 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Alas, there is no money in blogs, as in no money.  They have turned out to be a lousy advertising venue, unlike television which no one watches anymore, or slick magazines which no one has read for decades (Esquire, Playboy, New Yorker, Time, damn near all of them.)

I wish someone in the industry would explain this to us. The net looks like a place to make money.  It rarely is.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 14:50 | 4197274 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

European Tylers running the shop today??

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 14:57 | 4197300 Ghordius
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interesting linguistic theory, here.


"Give Thanks To The Fed, But Not Your Wallet"

sounds perfectly correct and straightforward to me. it's not as if Tyler wrote "Give thanks to the FED, but not to your wallet"

but I'm still learning English, so perhaps I'm mistaken

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 00:39 | 4198442 Torgo
Torgo's picture

Agreed. It's sloppy writing and I expect better from ZH. It should have been written Give Thanks (But Not Your Wallet) To The Fed.

Just as it is a basic and useful skill in economics to see what is unseen, it is a basic skill of everyday life to try to perceive as others perceive.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:36 | 4196827 max2205
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13% is chump change before this is done....might break the ath by end of dec......this will be the short of a lifetime

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:42 | 4196839 Cult_of_Reason
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The politburo will be forced to announce QE tapering in December. Almost nobody -- not bulls or bears --expects tapering in December.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:54 | 4197096 Son of Loki
Son of Loki's picture

The Housing Bubble is deflatiing slowly right now. If they taper, watch it "POP!"

Ouch!

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:37 | 4196830 AldousHuxley
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BIll Gross: "Stop buying S&P500 subsidized by Fed, buy my bonds instead"

 

Bill Gross always complaining when bonds suck at it because he doesn't run an equity hedge fund but a bond desk.

 

It it not a bubble when it is just inflation inflating EVERYTHING.

http://pricedingold.com/charts/SP500-1880.png

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:28 | 4197019 pomlad5
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Bill is insider

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 15:54 | 4197412 AldousHuxley
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bought inside info from KAshKAri, but that was long time ago. Lost out on Geithner's inside info. Need to wait to recruit Bernanke's retirement.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:37 | 4196834 moneybots
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"Nasdaq is not a bubble. It's impossible. It's 13% below internet bubble peak."

 

Of coarse it is a bubble.  Because Greenspan says it isn't.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:18 | 4196980 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

Evidently a bubble is only officially one after it has popped. All indications prior to such an event are simply anecdotal and meaningless because there is no absolute gaurantee that history will repeat itself, and rhymes don't count.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 18:12 | 4197759 Jannn
Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:15 | 4196749 max2205
max2205's picture

De risk till you are blue in the face....into what?

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:18 | 4196752 fonzannoon
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Bonds of course, and he happens to know just the right place to buy em!

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:27 | 4196793 Groundhog Day
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De-risking from bonds is what he is talking about.  When the Fed loses control and rates rise, Gross will be just another chump who got in to the business at the right time and had the wind to his back all the time

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:54 | 4196895 saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

De-risking from bonds?

That might be the right move, but how can a Pimco-Manager seriously say that? He can't go out of bonds, because his fonds are bound by their statutes. Gross can't step out of bonds.

So, either he is saying the opposite of what he believes in or he tells the public what would ruin his clients.

Or he suggests to de-risk from all other assets.

Now, who helps me out with a decent explanation of this cryptic tweet?

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 18:41 | 4197842 Homo Erectus
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The way I interpret it is do de-risk from everything risky, from ridiculously overvalued bonds to stupidly expensive stocks.

While he is forced to hold bonds he can lower interest-rate risk by reducing the duration of his portfolio. 

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 16:17 | 4200326 saveandsound
saveandsound's picture

Ok, that makes sense.

And leads pretty fast to the conclusion that the FED has to buy even more long-term bonds in order to suppress long-term interest-rates.

"What happens when my concerns are completly unfounded? Nothing. But what happens when my concerns are justified and ignored? Nothing good."

There is no exit strategy.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:30 | 4196796 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

There are alternatives.  They just are not available to fat slobs who want to click and buy.  They require getting up from the computer and going to see people and buying from them.

And no, that doesn't mean gold.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:16 | 4196754 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Fuck the cunt YELLEN

Fuck you Bendonkey, Greeshit , Lloyd,Jamie, and many more

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:16 | 4196755 SaulRosenberg
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Hey wait...the title of this article doesn't match Gross' tweet! Zerohedge is a phony! A big fat phony!

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:23 | 4196780 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, Bill.  Call the top.  Tell me when, what, and how much you short.  Be right behind 'ya.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:32 | 4196808 wisehiney
wisehiney's picture

Contrary to gross = MERRY CHRISTMAS!

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:24 | 4196997 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

I called the top three years ago. I'm out and don't give a flying fuck what it does. It just breaks my heart that I can't profit from participating in bringing about the end of the world.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:40 | 4196844 CrashisOptimistic
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Do yourselves a favor.  Take an hour and get educated on how much money is on deposit at the Fed from banks as excess reserves.  Look at the eye opening number.

Then compare that number to total QE since 2009. 

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:59 | 4196916 Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:12 | 4196954 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Thanks, I missed that.  I'm sure many others did.

Really explains why lending standards have gone to hell, again.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:31 | 4197021 CrashisOptimistic
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Actually, Tyler, that's legitimate stuff, but not my point.  I was noting that the interest paid (0.25%) had been judged by banks as a (because it is guaranteed) superior place to keep that money than as a loan at 6% to just about anyone, because that would not be guaranteed.

Thus, QE never becomes "stimulus".  The banks won't lend it out.  Too dangerous.

I guess your point was they rolled the dice for more than 0.25%, still without lending it out.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 14:23 | 4197190 chindit13
chindit13's picture

Yes.  Interest on excess reserves is paying $6.8 billion per year to the banks, and requires a sum total of zero additional staff/facilities/systems.  Infinite ROI, since there is no I.  Zero credit risk, plus no need to worry about the danger of locking in a long term asset at 4% and funding it with short term money that quite often (historically) has cost 5% plus.  The opportunities to hedge and match book do not exist, because there is no other side to the trade one can use to lay off the risk.  Thus, JPM lets its cash cushion run up to $430 billion, dipping into it only when they need to pay fines or let some "cash management" group go wild in CDX IG9.  Even with the whale trade gone bad, the risk-reward for "customer facilitation" (formerly known as proprietary trading) is better than trying to squeeze a hundred fifty pips from a potential deadbeat's 30-year fixed, especially when compensation is so heavily skewed toward taking on trading (not loan) risk.

Since Nov 2009 (initiation of QE), the total workforce is essentially unchanged, and total system credit is identical at $7.3 trillon.  Bank system assets have risen by (QE minus defaults), but that rise has not been in new system credit.  The mix of credit has shifted slightly, with more car loans and student loans, and less mortgage debt, but the total amount is flat over the whole run of QE.  Pointless, except for the equity market.

I keep thinking back to the Yellen confirmation hearing when she was being questioned by Sen Johanns.  "I think you'd agree with me, though you might not want to say so in a public hearing", that everything tumbles if the Fed cuts off the sugar high.  They only pretend in public.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:42 | 4196851 moneybots
moneybots's picture

Give thanks to the FED for keeping the economy suppressed for the last four years and counting.  Have a merry wealth effect NOT Christmas too, thanks to the FED.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:45 | 4196863 ChaosEquilibrium
ChaosEquilibrium's picture

There are NO "investors"..............only TRADERS!

 

Retail will NEVER be able or allowed to hit the "sell" button!!!

 

Anyone under 2.5 Million Assets and NO market execution access.....GET OUT...get in cash/currency equivalents.....be liquid....let the BIG BOYS take the PAIN!

 

Be smart money!

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 12:54 | 4196894 ptoemmes
ptoemmes's picture

Uhh, no thanks.  I'll pass.

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 13:09 | 4196941 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Here comes the perfect exit strategy for the Fed. The markets take a shit and everyone pole vaults over into bonds, thereby keeping rates low and allowing the Fed. to dial back POMO.

    The Fed. can also blame the shitstorm on .gov or China or whoever starts the cascade event, and exhonerate themselves. (when in reality it was the Fed. fuckheads that caused the meltdown with their bubble blowing)

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 15:11 | 4197336 RealityCheque
RealityCheque's picture

Thank Thanksgiving. Most American ZH'ers seem to be drunker and more belligerent than usual!

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 15:25 | 4197359 jim249
jim249's picture

"Begin to de-risk if you haven’t already"

Stocks? Bonds? Dollars? PM's?  ???????????????????????????

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 17:34 | 4197660 medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Iodine Tablets? Fallout Shelters? Sub-Etha Signaling Device? !!!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 22:53 | 4198264 deus x machina
deus x machina's picture

no sir, he is bound by the objective of the fund.  even if he knew that bonds were going to blow up he still couldn't sell the portfolio to all cash, for example. he may reduce duration some what but most likely not enough to have that much effect on rising bond yields. 

Thu, 11/28/2013 - 22:56 | 4198267 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

Heard Enron and Worldcom were going to be added to the S&P again to find some value stocks.  lol!  The whole sytem is a fruad!

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