This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Like Japan's "Economics Of The Hopeless"
The definition of the term Hail Mary as it pertains to football, provided here by Wikipedia, does a sterling job of setting the stage for this week's topic:
A Hail Mary pass or Hail Mary route is a very long forward pass in American football, made in desperation with only a small chance of success, especially at or near the end of a half.
Ah...
Yes, the Hail Mary is used in desperation, near the end of a contest when there is only a small chance of success...
When Abenomics was unveiled in Japan upon the re-election of Shinzo Abe as prime minister in late 2012, it is safe to say that, having been mired in a 20-year deflationary spiral and with debt totaling 240% of GDP, Japan was nearing an endgame of sorts.
For two decades the country had watched the yen strengthen and endemic deflation thwart any and all attempts to generate even moderate inflation, as repeated bouts of quantitative easing failed to administer the desired antidote to Japan's ever-increasing debtload.
Realizing just how late in the game he found himself, Abe promised to change all this, but in order to do so he needed to pursue a high-risk strategy with a low probability of success.
The press (ever hungry for a new, catchy portmanteau word) dubbed it "Abenomics."
Grant Williams, in his excellent letter below, prefers to call it "Avenomics": the economics of the hopeless.
Abe's opening (and perhaps his most important) gambit was the politicization of the Bank of Japan. Without a complicit governor quarterbacking Japan's printing press, any attempt at reaching the endzone would be futile.
[The story twists and turns]
So here he is — Japan's great hope — with time about to expire and the pressure mounting.
Facing the rush of a moribund economy, entrenched price deflation, an aging demographic that has drawn down its savings and actually likes the idea of lower prices, and a debt mountain that eclipses that of every other major economy on earth, is it any wonder that Abe-san has decided to hurl the ball into the endzone and hope that a helpful pair of hands hauls it in for a TD?
Of course, popular thinking goes that, since Japan has been doing the constant-stimulus thing for two decades without any noticeable consequences, all will be well; but the problem lies in the fact that, throughout the nineties and noughties, Japan was basically scrimmaging on its own practice field — alone, behind closed doors.
Now they find themselves in a competitive game with every other major economy in the world suited up and also needing higher inflation, weaker currencies, and genuine growth after littering the field with trillions in stimulus.
Say a prayer for Shinzo Abe, folks. For Avenomics to score, he's gonna need a miracle.
Full Grant Williams Letter below:
- 16905 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -


Waiting for the fumble and the "dog pile".
What's next, teh nucular (sic) option?
I'm old enough to remember another non politically correct term for dog pile.....
Much like when Brazil nuts were called something else as well.
Never heard of that "toe" reference. Please educate me! Ahahaha
+1
African-American toes would be the politically correct term today...
Or Obama toes.
EDIT: I realized how wrong that statement was, there aren't any nuts on his feet. They're usually on his chin. My apologies for the mistake.
Fuku-shashimi reveals one irreconcilable truth;
it's a nation of tools run by fools, 2020 will be their "crowning" achievement....can't wait
Merry Christmas Mr. Lawrence!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cP4GZx3R34
USSA USSA USSA soon to be .......................................
It should be Apenomics because it's at the level of ape intellectual capabilities.
Robot ninja assassins..you know they have them..along with their full suit mechs deep in an underground secret lair beneath Japan. They have been saving them for godzilla but they may need them for their current set of problems.
The Ministery of Agriculture IS NOT in charge of GUNDAM:
http://gizmodo.com/307676/japanese-bureaucrats-busted-for-editing-gundam-wikipedia-entries-on-the-job
Japanese PM looks like he has been sucked off by a Dyson.
Mrs. Abe appreciates your compliment.
The Japanese eCONomy has "Abes" and it's going to be a continuing slow decline until death. There are not miracle drugs where this patient is going to recover.
It's terminal!
The day of the great unravelling has already arrived because the world is like a sinking ship. Those on the kower deck have already drowned with the loss of jobs and homes. Those a little higher up are seeing their savings erode through little or no interest and inflation. Those a little higher still are still able to make ends meet in relative comfort through their good fortune and entrepeneurship. And finally those on the top deck have been collecting the assets of those on the lower decks and making ready to bard another ship or helicopter.
Abe is a fool and the Japanese even more foolish to believe in his experiment.
So is USSA any different in the experiment ?
NOPE! It's all a matter of time. All fiat eventually DIES!
Of course not in general terms. That is why I said the WHOLE world is sinking.
Thanks for the down vote.
The only difference is that the Japanese govt has managed to sell its crap mostly to its people whereas the USSA managed to exchange its crappy paper for real goods and services from the rest of the world.
The only way for Japan to get out of their mess is to buy a bunch of Bigcoin™...
Bigcoin™ -- it's what's for dinner!
Abe looks like Joe Theissman.
Japan needs to buy about 50 of these things so they can live on them after they irradiate everything else.
The incredible mile-long floating CITY - complete with schools, a hospital, parks and an airport for its 50,000 residents | Mail Online
true love wonte find you folks we are all done.
israeli kidron team gave us fuckishima jap on.
plutonium will find us all in the end
donte cry just make cancer and big pharma your friend.
thank god for monsanto ressitance crops
for without it we would have a population explosion.
Captain Wolfgang von Kleinschmidt: The Fuehrer was right! There is no place in the Third Reich for you yellow swine!
Colonel Akiro Mitamura: You can take your "Third Reich" and shove it up your ass!
go long?
WHAT MUST BE UNDERSTOOD IS THAT THE TERM "HAIL MARY" HAS A NUMBER OF CONNOTATIONS, PERSONALLY, I DON'T WANT TO BE SACRILIGEOUS AS THE TERM ALSO REFERS TO JUDEA IN APPROXIMATELY A FEW YEARS BEFORE THE CHRISTIAN ERA WHEN THE COUSIN OF MARY, ELIZABETH WENT TO HER AND WAS GREATLY MOVED.
AS WE ALL KNOW THE JAPANESE ARE SUFFERING A GREAT DEAL, DESERVEDLY SO? IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THEY WERE ENABLED BY THE WESTERN COUNTRIES AFTER WWII; IT COULD ALSO BE ARGUED THAT THE NUCLEAR CATASTROPHE HAS CAUSED A GREAT DEAL OF DAMAGE; THAT THE DOOMSDAY CULT ON MT FUJI DEPLOYED POISONOUS GASSES. THESE THINGS ARE ALL KNOWN!!! SO WHAT IS NOT KNOWN??? AT THE VERY LEAST WE SHOULD BE CONSIDERING OURSELVES VERY FORTUNATE FOR NOT SUFFERING THE SAME FATE!
A very interesting volume, especially the one about Abenomics and the Chinese gold numbers.
A few thoughts about the article dealing with Japan:
I can't understand why everybody is howling about a shrinking population. Japan is overpopulated. A shrinking population means less resource consumption, less pollution, a lower density of humanbs, less stress.
Only if the debt based monetary system with the force to exponential growth to pay for compound interest is the god, then I understand the whining.
The Japanes are VERY INTELLIGENT not to fall victim to the multicultural hell and practizing genozide on their own people. I applaude them!
IMO the best for Japan would be an interest free gold based currency: with such a currency all the absurd force for exponential growth vanishes. The shrinking population does no longer need to produce more and more but can produce less. Productivity growth no longer would be sucked up by compound interest and ever grwoing loads of debt, but could result in less working time or higher wages.
'Go deep'......... has another meaning hidden in it.
So then the Genie turned to Abe and said: "You have but one wish remaining. Choose wisely."
After thinking several minutes, Abe spoke to the Genie and said: "Well then,how about a little head?"
5/5; (yet only for the 'street art' slide, excellent)
As soon as the Confidence evaporates, so to does the system. The old timers are hanging on for life...
we are japan can't you zh morons learn this just as abe will fail at inflation so will miss piggy
I cannot argue with any of the facts and conclusions in this presentation:
Kyle Bass - Coming Crisis in Japanhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7kFcDKBpdII
Kyle Bass - "They're already in the zone of insolvency, there's nothing you can do. As you saw, their last ten finance ministers, one guy actually killed himself, and the guy who took over after him, after ratifying the 2011 budget checked himself into a hospital and had a press release that said "after ratifying the budget I literally was overcome with anxiety." You don't see ten finance ministers in five years unless there are real problems."
Japan is toast and I hope their event triggers a wave of reality and change in markets worldwide before the whole world goes down their stupid path, 20+ years of QE.