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European Unemployment Declines From All Time High, Youth Unemployment Hits Fresh Record - Full Breakdown

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following the "good" news in the inflationary front, in which European November CPI rose and beat expectations if posting the first sub-Japan inflationary rate in Eurozone history, Eurostat followed with more holiday cheer when it reported a surprising decline in the overall Eurozone unemployment rate from 12.2% to 12.1%, the first such drop since late 2010. This was driven by a decline in the jobless rate in France (from 11.1% to 10.9%), Portugal (from 15.8% to 15.7%) Ireland (from 12.7% to 12.6%) and Lithuania (from 11.4% to 11.1%). The offset was as usual Spain which rose to a new record high of 26.7%, and Belgium rising to 9.0%.

The sequential change is shown in the next table:

It was not all good news however, and when one looks at Europe's weakest link - youth unemployment - the number once again rose to a fresh all time high, of 24.4%:

In October 2013, 5.657 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 3.577 million were in the euro area. Compared with October 2012 youth unemployment decreased by 29 000 in the EU28, but increased by 15 000 in the euro area. In October 2013, the youth unemployment rate5 was 23.7% in the EU28 and 24.4% in the euro area, compared with 23.3% and 23.7% respectively in October 2012. In October 2013, the lowest rates were observed in Germany (7.8%), Austria (9.4%) and the Netherlands (11.6%), and the highest in Greece (58.0% in August 2013), Spain (57.4%) and Croatia (52.4% in the third quarter of 2013).

Of all, Spain was most notable, because its record high youth unemployment rate of 57.4%, is now just why of the sad Greek record of 58.0%. At this pace there should be parity between the two countries in 1-2 months.

 

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Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:12 | 4199016 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Green Shots in Spain. Man I love that green economy. I can't wait until it is fully implement in the U.S.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:12 | 4199020 NOZZLE
NOZZLE's picture

the double dip recession is officially over

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:26 | 4199037 negative rates
negative rates's picture

A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link, but in this case, i'll make an execption.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:57 | 4199101 Balvan
Balvan's picture

I don't understand, how come are Greece and Spain so much worse than 3rd worst?

Maybe it's the way unemployment is being calculated or huge gray economy? Gap can't possibly be so huge.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:54 | 4199109 Nothing but the...
Nothing but the truth.'s picture

The Eu is now outdoing the US for data fudging. These numbers are meaningless if they are compiled by government agencies.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:08 | 4199017 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

and Spain was upgraded....

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:27 | 4199041 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Portugal on deck.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 15:51 | 4200268 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Portugal is net exporter of people - that must be bullish, right?

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:13 | 4199018 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

From ZH twitter :

TROIKA CANCELS NEXT WEEK'S VISIT TO ATHENS DUE TO GREECE FAILING TO MEET COMMITMENTS, OFFICIAL SAYS

Aw... what about the TROIKA mans the fuck up and kicks Greece out of the euro?? Stop giving them money. It'll be better for everybody.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:19 | 4199025 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

the whole concept of a country "getting kicked out of the EUR" is a fantasy of Daily Telegraph readers. a simplification, at best, a huge load of BS at worst

it starts with the fact that there is no legal ground or reason to do that and it goes further with what happened in Cyprus, i.e. national authorities imposing financial controls

there is one reasonable scenario for any country leaving the eurozone, and that's a corralito, South America style

the question with Greece and the Troika is more about Greece defaulting or not. and a country can default and still use the EUR. the thing is working as designed

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:20 | 4199026 Martdin
Martdin's picture

Who owns Greece's debt?

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:27 | 4199039 Max Damage
Max Damage's picture

When it defaults our pension funds will have happily bought it off the banks at a handsome profit to them and a total loss to the rest of us.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:29 | 4199044 negative rates
negative rates's picture

The same ones that own the debt of the USA.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:31 | 4199047 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

first, may I draw your attention to this vintage (2011) ZH article called here-what-happens-after-greece-defaults

second, I presume your question is pointing on how much other europeans own Greek debt (mainly because the Chinese and the Americans are way too scared about it, thanks to incessant bad news). which leads me to answer that yes, this makes the whole concept of "kicking Greece out of the eurozone" even more preposterous, doesn't it?

anyway, I still own a very tiny bit of it (sounds like a financial porn-seller's disclaimer, doesn't it?)

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:28 | 4199045 falak pema
falak pema's picture

As James Bond "Joe" said, using the French analogy : Keep supporting the poor with a social safety net is what Europe is doing until it gets out from under the Oligarchy gun; if it does one day...as it is ALSO part of the Oligarchy...two faced first world. 

I am not so confident that this circular logic will lead us to a new plateau via unlimited CB fiat pumping, in the hope of a new paradigm dawning. 

Paradigms don't just dawn on their own their have to be spawned by Man in blood, sweat and tears.

We have the comfy belief in Elite western circles  that the third world will oblige us with their limitless cheap labour to build this new paradigm and then conveniently forgive us our collective sin of living on borrowed money all the while! 

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:55 | 4199104 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Not to mention all the compounded borrowed time that is lost in the medley.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:30 | 4199049 polo007
polo007's picture

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/29/us-economy-global-stagnation-insight-idUSBRE9AS03O20131129

'SELF-INFLICTED DISASTER'

With Beijing repressing domestic consumption and holding down the yuan's exchange rate to give it a competitive edge in world markets, foreign direct investment poured into China to take advantage of cheap labour, land and other inputs.

Exports duly exploded. China's resulting current account surplus, though now declining, contributed to a glut of global savings that depressed U.S. interest rates and helped fuel the fateful boom in sub-prime mortgages.

China's foreign exchange reserves today stand at an unfathomable $3.66 trillion.

Tens of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty by the rise of China and other poor countries plugged into global supply chains.

But outsourcing of production has hollowed out skilled jobs in advanced economies in what British financial analyst Tim Morgan, in his book ‘Life After Growth' calls "a self-inflicted disaster with few parallels in economic history".

Jen added: "If you are a labourer in the West, you have been hurt. It's very clear. If you are a capitalist in the West, you have benefited immensely."

Dominic Rossi, global chief investment officer for equities at Fidelity Worldwide Investment, noted that labour's share of U.S. non-financial output held steady at between 61 percent and 65 percent for half a century.

"Then, something happened. From 2000, it plummeted and currently rests at an all-time low of 57 percent," Rossi wrote in the Financial Times. Over the same period, median U.S. household incomes have fallen in real terms.

"Overall, labour is not participating in economic growth as it has done in the past," he said.

The flip side is that U.S. corporate profit margins stand at 12 percent of gross domestic product, a record high, yet net corporate investment is only 4 percent of GDP, Rossi noted.

The picture of corporations awash with cash but reluctant to invest is mirrored in Europe.

THE ZERO BOUND

So what is to be done?

Against a background of high debt and depressed incomes and investment, former U.S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers posited at a recent IMF conference that real interest rates consistent with full employment could now be minus 2-3 percent.

"We may well need in the years ahead to think about how we manage an economy in which the zero nominal interest rate is a chronic and systemic inhibitor of economic activity, holding our economies back below their potential," Summers said.

He is not alone in worrying about the limits of monetary policy even as the risks of outright deflation grow.

Alan Blinder, a former Federal Reserve vice-chairman, expects inflation to be lower on average over the next half a century than in the past 50 years. As a result, central banks would keep hitting the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates.

"We have just experienced first-hand how difficult the ZLB can make it for a central bank to stimulate its economy out of a recession and, therefore, how large the potential social costs are," Blinder wrote in a recent essay.

Bill White, a former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, blamed central banks for wrongly analysing the strong disinflationary impulse imparted by the reintegration of previously isolated economies such as China into the world trading system.

"Globalisation constituted a significant, long-lasting and positive productivity shock that should have been met with tighter rather than easier monetary policy," White said in a speech to Omfif, a London think tank.

By leaning against what they saw as excessive disinflation, central banks have helped to create the imbalances now dogging the global economy and have postponed the adjustments needed to achieve sustainable, balanced growth, White argued.

"In short, ‘still more of the same' monetary policies since 2007 have left us, in my view, with old problems unresolved and some new ones added as well," he said.

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 09:37 | 4199060 d edwards
d edwards's picture

It seems the tiny changes in the unemployment rate(s) could just be rounding errors!

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 10:21 | 4199178 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   The macro news was shitty as well over night and the fucking equity markets are green as usual.

  When was the last time we had a down day? I can't remember. This shit is so fucking jumped the Rubicon screwed up I can't believe the level of complacency. I don't ever remember things being quite this pathetic during any other bubble in my lifetime.

  The daily dow chart hasn't had the RSI long or short line drop below 50 since around October 10th!

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 10:22 | 4199205 bigmikeO
bigmikeO's picture

Does anybody know if the EU reports unemployment the same way that our BLS does? Or is it a REAL measurement (without throwing out giver-uppers, those on disability, seasonal "adjustments", etc?)

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 12:33 | 4199695 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

most EU countries I know of have no such thing as you describe, otherwise it would be utterly impossible to reach those levels. yet remember that those are all national statistics, collated by EuroStat

in fact, Spain has a long history of exxagerating the jobless data (for internal political reasons), and it's one of the countries that bitches with EuroStat about methodology

what Europe would need is a good estimate about how many work without paying taxes while collecting insurance, but that is a can of worms seldom opened

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 16:12 | 4200314 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

What do you think? Data is on registered jobless, which means if you never did/gave up/are disabled, you're out of the stats. Also, emigration...

Fri, 11/29/2013 - 10:23 | 4199207 adonisdemilo
adonisdemilo's picture

@martdin

The others members of the "club" own Greece's debt.

They collectively own each other's debt.

They lend currency to each other that they have borrowed fron each other.

They have even borrowed at 7% and lent the same at 3%, and folk wonder why it appears a downward spiral.

It's all their collective debt until they can unload it onto a bigger idiot, ultimately that's you and me and it's called taxation, inflation, reduced pensions, reduced earnings, unemployment, austerity etc. etc..

Of course non of this matters as long as the European dream survives.

 

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