Guest Post: Inflation, Shortages, And Social Democracy In Venezuela

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Matt McCaffrey via the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

The economic turmoil in Venezuela has received increasing international media attention over the past few months. In September, the toilet paper shortage (which followed food shortages and electricity blackouts) resulted in the “temporary occupation” of the Paper Manufacturing Company, as armed troops were sent to ensure the “fair distribution” of available stocks. Similar action occurred a few days ago against electronics stores: President Nicolás Maduro accused electronics vendors of price-gouging, and jailed them with the warning that “this is just the start of what I’m going to do to protect the Venezuelan people.”

Earlier this month, in another attempt to ensure “happiness for all people,” Maduro began to hand out Christmas bonuses, in preparation for the coming elections in December. But political campaigning is not the only reason for the government’s open-handedness. The annual inflation rate in Venezuela has been rapidly rising in recent months, and has now reached a staggering 54 percent (not accounting for possible under-estimations). Although not yet officially in hyperinflation, monetary expansion is pushing Venezuela toward the brink.

In such an environment, paychecks need to be distributed quickly, before prices have time to rise; hence, early bonuses. This kind of policy is nothing new in economic history: Venezuela’s hyperinflationary episode is unfolding in much the same way Germany’s did nearly a century ago.

Consequently, Venezuela’s economic policy is proving to be another example of Ludwig von Mises’s argument that economic intervention, if left unchecked, leads to complete socialism. The ever-expanding price controls testify to the fact that governments always search for new scapegoats in the market instead of admitting the failure of their own policies, and that it is always easier to increase government control than reduce it.

Maduro clearly knows the ropes when it comes to anti-market propaganda; like his predecessor, Hugo Chávez, he has placed blame for soaring prices on speculators and the “parasitic bourgeoisie.” But no witch-hunt for “price-gougers” will stop the eventual collapse of the economy that will result from further monetary expansion combined with crippling price controls. Inevitably, as Mises argued, “once public opinion is convinced that the increase in the quantity of money will continue and never come to an end, and that consequently the prices of all commodities and services will not cease to rise, everybody becomes eager to buy as much as possible and to restrict his cash holding to a minimum.”

As we speak, Venezuelan shoppers are queuing outside seized stores trying to spend their rapidly depreciating currency, and the economy is marching steadily toward a dénouement when bolivars (Venezuela’s currency) will be useful for little more than kindling.

Venezuela has in fact been fueling the fire of economic disaster for quite some time. The socialist programs of Chávez’s administration squandered the country’s scarce capital in wasteful production. As chronic shortages set in, the government turned to price, capital, and foreign exchange controls to keep the economy afloat, each of which led to further chaos. Currently, Maduro’s administration is planning to extend the controls to all commodity prices, in yet another doomed effort to fix the country’s dire economic problems, but new controls will only make things worse. The only way to truly prevent soaring prices is to stop the printing press and give the reins of the economy over to the market by eliminating price controls. The nationalization of private businesses and establishment of total price controls will not cover up disastrous monetary policies, but only prolong and aggravate their effects. They merely add to ever-higher price increases and ever-lower supply of consumer goods and more capital consumption, further eroding the country’s economic foundation.

Venezuela’s dire straits might seem far removed from the problems faced by other nations, and it is easy to believe that hyperinflation is impossible “here.” Yet as Mises warned, the seeds of disaster are sown from the beginning of government intervention in the market, although “the first stage of the inflationary process may last for many years.” But the final stages of economic collapse occur far more quickly: as Peruvian-Spanish writer and political commentator Alvaro Vargas Llosa points out, “going from 60 percent [inflation] to 1,000 percent is a lot easier than going from 3 percent to 40 or 50 percent.” As disturbing as the thought is, the difference between the U.S. and other Western economies and Venezuela is merely one of degree, not of kind.

After all, Chávez carried out his Bolivarian Missions through a program of nationalization, subsidies, and affordable healthcare. This is a familiar refrain in Western economies.

Venezuela’s problems are more easily visible and have escalated more quickly because its capital stock has been largely depleted by an unbridled 15-year commitment to socialist economic policies. Other states such as the US still rely on large capital stocks accumulated in years of freer markets. Therefore, Western economies may not see their toilet paper disappear from supermarket shelves, yet, but rising prices and numerous bankruptcies indicate that the tendency is the same. This cements once again Mises’s idea that no country will find a stable “middle-of-the-road” economic policy. All movements lead toward one extreme: markets or socialism. Mixed economies are just pit-stops in between. The games all central banks play with the purchasing power of money may be more subtle, but they are ultimately just as harmful as conspicuous socialism.

Some have argued that the crisis in Venezuela will most likely “undercut Chavismo’s viability” as a political program. Yet the critical issue is not a political one, but the economic fact that Venezuela is frantically squandering its resources, consuming its capital, and impoverishing its people. If Maduro’s policies persist, and if after the seemingly inevitable collapse the legacy of chavistas loses its viability — “vaccinating” Venezuelans against a return to such destructive regimes — it will be the only good thing to come out of these tragic events.

Although the odds are against it, let us hope other countries learn something from this episode before they too approach the brink of economic disaster.

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Kreditanstalt's picture

Who is going to be wiling to PRODUCE stuff when his salary bill, prices and, ultimately, profits are being dictated under duress through government 'democratic violence'? Would you?

debtor of last resort's picture

Other formes of violence will take care of that.

ZerOhead's picture

The good news is that the toilet paper shortage will soon be solved... albeit with a cheaper single ply although rather colorful substitute...

Colonel Klink's picture

I'd rather not wipe my ass with the faces of those to founded the country on solid principles.  Please let me know when Woodrow Wilson, Bernanke, Yellen, or Obama appear on the currency.  Then I'd be more than happy to.

TeamDepends's picture

Why do these pukes always have to stick their arms out like that?

Colonel Klink's picture

It's the special club handshake kind of thing.

TheRedScourge's picture

As Twain said, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.". Thatcher also said "They would rather the poor be poorer so long as the rich were less rich", and as we are witnessing once again, economic reality would be happy to oblige.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=okHGCz6xxiw

Colonel Klink's picture

So when does the "Obama youth" movement begin?

TeamDepends's picture

Brother, it has begun!  The Black Panthers are but one group who can run around and do as they please under the watchful eye of Eric Holder.

HoleInTheDonut's picture

This new guy Maduro is just not working for me.  At least Chavez looked liked a military thug.  When I see Maduro I think "high school dropout" or "C student".

Colonel Klink's picture

So in other words, like Bush Jr.

bigkahuna's picture

I was just thinking that this guy looks like Saddam. He could be in trouble.

It might be the little dictator mustache and the drab green - but he looks like Saddam in that pic.

Colonel Klink's picture

He better not start trading oil in something other than dollars.  I've heard that puts you on the immediate hit list.

Don't wanna get "Gdaffi'd"

fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

If Zero's grades had not been sealed you would have seen his F grades. Except the courses he passed because of his white half.

WmMcK's picture

We've a while for Wilson ($100k) to make his return. I'm first.

August's picture

The talented Mr. Wilson is already portrayed on the $100,000 FRN.

Maybe they'll be back in circulation again soon.

tunnelvizn's picture

Soon to be replaced with a single "plyer" system

Colonel Klink's picture

Not me, I stopped producing/being productive 4 years ago.  It was my only way of fighting back.  Starve the beast!

mick_richfield's picture

I'm trying, but it's hard.

I came to this life to make things.

Colonel Klink's picture

I still do stuff, it's usually just for betterment of myself now.

Zero Point's picture

The black market will pick up the slack.

I wonder if they'll be using USD, gold and silver or btc as opposed to truckloads of bolivars?

rubiconsolutions's picture

Coming soon to a theater near you.

Professorlocknload's picture

All will be equally poor.

Colonel Klink's picture

At least I'm poor voluntarily!  Makes it easier to stomach.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"At least I'm poor voluntarily!"

Define poor.  Apparently you have a computer and internet access.  More than some folks I know.

Colonel Klink's picture

Poor, as in I have NO income.  I still have money and a great life.  Not everything fun in life take a lot of money.  Many simple pleasures are free.

FredFlintstone's picture

I am interested in this concept. How do you go about getting a spouse onboard?

Colonel Klink's picture

No spouse, no kids, no need to worry abou that for me.  It's hard to get someone else to change their normalcy bias.  My guess is small steps, getting them to self-educate on the matter is the easiest way.  Once their eyes open to what's coming, they come to their own conclusions pretty quick.

krispkritter's picture

Some countries never learn.  Thankfully I live in the US and this could never happen here.

Kreditanstalt's picture

I realise you're being facetious, but North America is blessed too with collective "bargaining" "rights", taxes, "minimum wages", payroll deductions, import duties, rampant price fixing & a MASSIVE social wefare system to support...not a hell of a lot of difference.

Skateboarder's picture

Not to mention the first world false dignity of labor.

knukles's picture

Goodness!
Look who remembered their Red Pills this morning!

How far down the reality rabbit hole can you go before complete unadulterated depression and suicidal thoughts?

Skateboarder's picture

Even to the last second of your breath, you define yourself not by what you have or what you have done, but by how you treat others around you.

TheGardener's picture

You forgot you sarc tag. You define yourself how you treat yourself and keep up your conviction.

Messing about with the `others` is just self justifying how you failed or not, or worse socialist take over of other peoples suffering for your own benefit.

Iam_Silverman's picture

"Messing about with the `others` is just self justifying how you failed or not, or worse socialist take over of other peoples suffering for your own benefit."

Condensed version:

Or, just trying to get laid or borrow money.

mick_richfield's picture

Not quite, Mithrandir.

You are what you do.

How you treat others is part of what you do -- not all of it.

A lot of people in this time will tell you that you must treat others well.

I don't think that's quite right.

I think you should treat others as they deserve to be treated.

And yourself likewise.

Skateboarder's picture

Perhaps the both of you have read this past its intention. I said how you treat people. I never said anything about nice.

Let me give you an example. I had a great college friend a few years ago. We skateboarded together and built ramps and shit. Over time, I got second-class treatment before our time together came to an end. I stopped taking calls. Over time he had called once in a while, but this year the messages are exploding. He really does miss me. The cold shoulder always works. ;)

fxrxexexdxoxmx's picture

It is harder to find people who understand that. I get tired of looking.

NOTaREALmerican's picture

As does almost every other country on the planet.

What other system is there to keep the top 50% from eating the bottom 50% alive?

Anusocracy's picture

Getting rid of government.

Government is, first and foremost, a tool of the rich. It always has been, even if a bunch of clueless morons call it democracy.

Fight-Club's picture

I advise all to be aware of the potential impact of Venezuala's collapse.  While almost anything can happen, the chances that oil production is cut off is high.  An ensuing political stalemate may evolve between China (who has rights to most of Venezuela's production), Russia (who provides arms), and the US, (which may be compelled to assist a rebel counter-revolution if misery spreads like Syria, and missiles (purchased) from Iran are targeted at the US.).  

Yen Cross's picture

  In the U.S. you buy votes with obama phones & EBT cards. In Venezuela you buy votes with THIS...

Colonel Klink's picture

That's pretty much what you buy votes in Amurika with, it's just more colorful and rectangular.

mick_richfield's picture

Votes don't matter, to people who can create money.

If I gave you the task of controlling all politics in America in 20 or 30 years -- and gave you the ability to create trillions of dollars -- don't you think you could do that?

And if you still needed to buy votes after that time, I would have you eaten.

 

debtor of last resort's picture

12 mega rolls = 48 regular rolls. That's a nice fucking piece of inflation.

Yen Cross's picture

  LMAO! Nice posts fellas. Greenies for the both of you.

MeelionDollerBogus's picture

doesn't sound right. Venezuela is not ruled by corporations. America is. America is forking over all the cash to corporate oligarchs. Venezuela is not. That's not "degree" that's direction.
Venezuela is socialist. America is Fascist. They aren't the same.

Colonel Klink's picture

No but the results are the same for the population.